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The Rebuild Thread-"You be the GM"

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Old
03-27-2012, 12:11 PM
  #151
CapnCornelius
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
I think it's a little like trying to determine how much of an economy should be based on manufacturing, how much on extraction and mining, how much on service, and how much on white-collar. I don't know and no one knows, but if it works now and into the future, it sounds good.

I'd say just on an anecdotal basis and from having done some cursory research, a college player and specifically a college project player could be loaded up on in the 4th round and later. From a quick look at the CBJ drafting under Howson, it looks like college players from the first three rounds have been Weber, Hansen, Goloubef, Lynch, and Tynan (5 total). The last four rounds have been York, Vogelhuber, Olson, Atkinson, Collins, Larkin, Ouellette, Reilly, and Ambroz (9 total). The other variable is that a college-bound player who's drafted high enough may elect to leave school and go the junior route. I know Charlie Coyle did that in the middle of this season and Jack Campbell de-committed from college and went into the OHL. Those are just off the top of my head, and I don't usually remember it when it happens.
But here we are, 5 years in with nothing to show. Had we instead used picks, particularly the higher picks like Weber and Hansen on junior A players who might be in the lineup by now might we have been better off? Particularly when Mike Priest was shouting "Win now!" So, to ask the question that the Smiths once asked, "How soon is now?"

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03-27-2012, 12:19 PM
  #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
The other variable is that a college-bound player who's drafted high enough may elect to leave school and go the junior route. I know Charlie Coyle did that in the middle of this season and Jack Campbell de-committed from college and went into the OHL. Those are just off the top of my head, and I don't usually remember it when it happens.
This is kind of what happened with John Moore. He had committed to Colorado College, but after being drafted by the Jackets he signed an entry-level contract and ended up going to the Kitchener Rangers.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect/John_Moore

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Old
03-27-2012, 12:38 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Nanabijou View Post
This is kind of what happened with John Moore. He had committed to Colorado College, but after being drafted by the Jackets he signed an entry-level contract and ended up going to the Kitchener Rangers.
Had never noticed it before - although I'm sure many others have - but take off the final two letters of that team name and you get

Kitchen Range

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03-27-2012, 01:05 PM
  #154
Not Enrico Ciccone
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
If nothing else, it occupies a roster spot and a contract spot on someone who may or may not be any good. And once a college free agent signs, he goes from "good prospect" to "25-year-old with limited pro experience". In other words, their trade value is extremely low unless the guy really shows something early. 2nd-rounders, as a liquid asset, have value. Prospects drafted with 2nd-rounders have value. Someone who was an undrafted college free agent...not so much.
I view it as a low risk, low cost, opportunity to augment your talent pool, supply depth and occasionally hit on a guy who becomes a serviceable and in some cases very good hockey player. An organization like the CBJ absolutely should be involved in this process to a much higher degree than they are. They aren't going to win battles for unrestricted free agents with most other organizations given the state of the franchise, but they could very easily incrementally beat another organziations financial commitment to an undrafted kid and offer a much quicker opportunity to play at the nhl level.

Look, it isnt the silver bullet and the fail rate will significantly beat the success rate - but there are good players to be found here and the level of money being spent is certainly within our means. There is no reason we couldnt be competitive in this arena and it has bugged me that we havent been more so recently. This isnt make or break for a franchise, but I think you shouldn't turn your back on it.

Put another way, the CBJ tried to sign Matt Read after his junior year, but couldnt get it done. He then signs with the Flyers for a contract that basically is what we are now paying Allen York or Brett Lebda...

I think in retrospect tossing in a couple more $100,000 or making the money guaranteed would have been a good idea.

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03-27-2012, 01:07 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
But here we are, 5 years in with nothing to show. Had we instead used picks, particularly the higher picks like Weber and Hansen on junior A players who might be in the lineup by now might we have been better off? Particularly when Mike Priest was shouting "Win now!" So, to ask the question that the Smiths once asked, "How soon is now?"
To focus on the college picks from round 3 and up...

After Will Weber was drafted, the only players to have had a real NHL impact from there (pick #53) to the end of the draft are Wayne Simmonds (61) and Jamie Benn. Alec Martinez is the only college player from that draft after Weber to have made an impact, and he was 20. Carl Hagelin was taken at 168, and is the only truly good prospect to have come after that spot. Now put Jake Hansen after Weber, and remove Simmonds from the "taken after" line. 2007 was a weak draft overall.

Goloubef was taken #37 in 2008. The only decent prospects after him in that round are Roman Josi (38) and Travis Hamonic (53). The Rangers struck gold with Derek Stepan at 51; he was committed to Wisconsin, played two years there, then turned pro. I have no idea where my 2008 draft guides are, so I can't find a scouting profile on him. That annoys me too, since those weren't cheap.

Kevin Lynch was taken 56th in 2009. So far, no one taken after him has made an NHL impact, and it's still tough to say who the best prospects are...we're talking about only three years after that draft.

TJ Tynan was taken last year. The only NHL player taken after him is Andrew Shaw (5th round by Chicago), and he was an overager anyway.

Basically, there aren't cases of missing out on an immediate impact player, or even an immediate NHL player, by going the college route. When I look back through the CBJ draft history, it looks like that's what the 2002 draft was. It looks like an attempt to get immediate impact players by drafting overagers, and every single one of them flopped. And in those cases, there were impact players who were taken after those.

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03-27-2012, 01:13 PM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Not Enrico Ciccone View Post
I view it as a low risk, low cost, opportunity to augment your talent pool, supply depth and occasionally hit on a guy who becomes a serviceable and in some cases very good hockey player. An organization like the CBJ absolutely should be involved in this process to a much higher degree than they are. They aren't going to win battles for unrestricted free agents with most other organizations given the state of the franchise, but they could very easily incrementally beat another organziations financial commitment to an undrafted kid and offer a much quicker opportunity to play at the nhl level.

Look, it isnt the silver bullet and the fail rate will significantly beat the success rate - but there are good players to be found here and the level of money being spent is certainly within our means. There is no reason we couldnt be competitive in this arena and it has bugged me that we havent been more so recently. This isnt make or break for a franchise, but I think you shouldn't turn your back on it.

Put another way, the CBJ tried to sign Matt Read after his junior year, but couldnt get it done. He then signs with the Flyers for a contract that basically is what we are now paying Allen York or Brett Lebda...

I think in retrospect tossing in a couple more $100,000 or making the money guaranteed would have been a good idea.
I'm not suggesting that the team not be involved in any way, or stay away on the basis of percentages. If you ever read "Moneyball" (and I hate that book), there's a reference made to the fact that the failure rate for high school pitchers is extremely high. Billy Beane took that to the extreme, capped off by throwing and breaking a chair when his scouting director used a first-rounder on one. That kid actually had an MLB career and was serviceable. Point is, I actually have a copy of the original study on that issue (done by Bill James), but he's not suggesting avoiding them at all costs. If you have a phenom and he's a high school pitcher, you take him. Avoiding someone simply because they don't fit the ideal profile, or because they fall into an unfavorable profile, is dumb.

But we have no idea what the Matt Read negotiations looked like. He may have said that he would never sign with Columbus no matter what, in which case a bit more money isn't going to make a difference. Everything I've seen indicates that Columbus has been very active since 2008 in trying to sign college free agents, without success. There's also been some decent prospects who have snagged rookie camp invites, which is another sharp contrast to the early years (although Riley Cote and Chris Campoli were future NHLers who were in a Columbus rookie camp).

Nothing exists in a vacuum. A prospect with options isn't simply going to sign with the team offering him the most money because it's the most money.

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03-27-2012, 01:21 PM
  #157
Not Enrico Ciccone
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
But we have no idea what the Matt Read negotiations looked like. He may have said that he would never sign with Columbus no matter what, in which case a bit more money isn't going to make a difference. .
It is my understanding the central issue was one way contract v. two way...the Blue Jackets didnt want to offer a one way...the Flyers did.

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03-27-2012, 01:31 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by Not Enrico Ciccone View Post
It is my understanding the central issue was one way contract v. two way...the Blue Jackets didnt want to offer a one way...the Flyers did.
That may well be the case. But even if Columbus had offered a one-way, would he have signed here?

I'm sure Danny DeKeyser from Western Michigan got some very nice offers in the last couple of weeks, but he's decided to return to the Broncos for another season. Jack Johnson was offered an NHL contract when he was with Carolina, but still went back to Michigan. Basically, the options are there, and a kid doesn't have to do anything no matter how much or how little sense it may make.

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Old
03-27-2012, 02:15 PM
  #159
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I've changed my mind on how I would want to do things as GM. I'm going for a 2-3 year rebuild. I want to set up most of my forwards for the future now. They are still 2-3 years away from being real impact players, but that gives me time to work over the defense and have them where I want when the forwards start peaking. The three forwards I am set on moving forward are my three offense minded defensemen-JMFJ, Wiz, and Moore. I'd take a chance on Nik with a two year deal as well, more if the numbers are low enough. I don't expect him to be anything more than the 3rd line, depth player, but he could surprise me.
The forwards are mostly young, but they make up the majority of the future of the team. There are some gag stops for now in Huselius, Umberger, Prospal...just some vets that will hold down some higher places until they get knocked down the lineup by someone else.
Nino Niederreiter is having an off year. He is still highly rated, but Islander fans seem pretty frustrated with him at least. I asked Islander fans what it would take to get him. They said it would still take a lot, one suggested Tyutin. If that was the case, I would do that deal. Tyutin isn't in my future. Obviously I would call around and see if I could get a better deal for Tyutin somewhere else, but for this hypothetical, lets say not. A future possible top line forward who has played with Johansen before seems interesting to me. Plus he has some size, which is one area I would want to add.
I would offer Dekanich a two way deal here. I don't think too many teams would offer him a one way considering he was hurt all year. He doesn't want to sign, no big deal.
I would trade for Harding's rights. I don't know what it would take, but I would make sure I got it.
I would trade Methot for whatever I could. If it was for Harding's rights great. Whatever, doesn't matter, he is gone.
I'd like to add another vet forward in there somewhere when a vet front he top 6 inevitably becomes injured and no one is ready to step in yet, but that would be a choice I'd make during the summer during FA. Some of (hopefully most of) Brassard, Atkinson, Nino, Johansen, Nail, and and Kubalik will be in the top 6 in the next few years.
For Nash I would require a younger top defensive minded defenseman, a high pick, then whatever else depending on the package. If I couldn't get a top line defenseman, I'd still require a top 4 d-man, a top 6 forward (either center or power forward) and pick. Lets go with my first scenario.

Huselius-Brassard-Umberger
Prospal-Letestu-Atkinson
FA-MacK-Dorsett
Nino-Johansen-Nail
Kubalik, Boll, Gillies..something along those lines

JMFJ-(Nash replacement)
Wiz-FA/Trade
Moore-Nik

Harding, Mason

That would be my lineup starting the year. The hope is that by the end of the year, Kubalik is a full time player, and players replace Umberger and Prospal, knocking them down to the third line. Mason would probably go into net year as the backup to finish his contract. That gives me this summer, next season, and that summer to find someone to go along with Harding moving forward.

Next year (12-13) would land us near the bottom of the standings. But with some growth from the younger forwards, the season to make trades/add to the defense, and another high draft pick (and possibly LA's 1st rounder), we shouldn't be as bad going into the season after that (13-14). The main pieces should all be there in 13-14 season, with minor tweaks. The 14-15 season is when I would expect a pretty decent team.

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03-27-2012, 02:22 PM
  #160
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I came across this article by Gord Stellick on cbc.ca (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...ple-leafs.html).

It's a stretch, but I'm bored and I could see some parallels in this story of the 80s Leafs and the current Jackets. Talks about the Leafs trying to get rid of the country club atmosphere and trade the team star (Lanny McDonald). But, in particular, the quote by Palmateer sounds just like Mason did the other night against Edmonton.

Quote:
Out went Neilson and general manager Jim Gregory, and in came the second reign of the George "Punch" Imlach era. He vowed to get rid of the "country club atmosphere" and change the culture. He drastically did that and quickly changed the results. A team that had looked like it was one of the top five in the NHL, was 20-29-4 in February. Lanny McDonald had been traded. And the final "trigger" for that trade was a 10-0 drubbing by the Boston Bruins on Dec. 20th, 1979...
Palmateer was his usual cocky self that night: "I played fantastic, I made some big saves otherwise the Bruins could have scored more," he said. Palmateer is now a member of the Toronto Maple Leaf scouting staff. This signaled the start of a complete decade of futility (with a few exceptions).
I just hope our rebuild isn't going to signal another decade of futility for us.

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03-28-2012, 12:35 AM
  #161
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Posting this here so my own guys don't kill me, lol.

I have my own reason/s for making this proposal...hockey ones...but I'll keep them to myself.

If Nashville retains the rights to the #1 overall after the draft lottery...

To LA: 2012 1st overall, Steve Mason

To CBJ: Jonathan Quick

I think you guys saying you need a #1 goaltender makes sense. But drafting Yakupov #1 is a lot like drafting Nash #1 and building around him, 2.0...an extremely talented left winger with no other guys to put around him.

But in LA maybe he can be the next Robitaille, except can skate. For LA, to lose Quick, we just start Bernier instead and back him up with Mason. Maybe Mason, behind LA's defense, can become rejuvenated. If we don't have Bernier, of course we can't make this deal. Also, we need some talented but lower-priced scoring as we have a lot of big, big contracts on our team (Kopi, Doughty, the bromance, Gagne...and I think we still need a guy like Parise). LA could also trade down for more picks...we could use the picks if we don't make the playoffs this year as CBJ will have our first and we already traded away our second and third this year.

Just FYI, Quick becomes a RFA next year but I'm pretty sure CBJ has plenty of money under the cap to re-sign him. LA might not.

What do you CBJ guys think?

Oh also, we can still use RJ Umberger, maybe we send a couple decent D prospects your way? We got like 50 of them, almost as many guys as there are centers on the NHL club, lol.

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Last edited by Rorschach: 03-28-2012 at 12:37 AM. Reason: Adding the RJ part
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03-28-2012, 06:50 AM
  #162
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Any chance you could become the GM of the Kings?

P.S. If the Kings flop, the Jackets get the 1 next year; they get in, its Jackets choice 12 or 13

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03-29-2012, 10:16 AM
  #163
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Any chance you could become the GM of the Kings?

P.S. If the Kings flop, the Jackets get the 1 next year; they get in, its Jackets choice 12 or 13
I'm gonna pretend your PS doesn't exist...everytime I think about how the pick flopping works, my brain wants to swell in my skull.

- R

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03-29-2012, 10:39 AM
  #164
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I'm a little confused. Why would we send over the #1 overall pick for a goal tender? And I liked Quick since he came into the league.

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03-29-2012, 02:13 PM
  #165
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Screw being the GM. My plan is to win the Powerball and buy out JPMcConnell's ownership!

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03-29-2012, 02:34 PM
  #166
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Screw being the GM. My plan is to win the Powerball and buy out JPMcConnell's ownership!
What position will I hold in the new front office? (I'd be a great head coach. I'd easily be the worst one in the NHL, but I'd delegate everything to the assistants. My job would be to provide obscenely long answers to every question in press conferences.)

Besides, I already plan on winning the jackpot. I'll even set up a fans' council, sometimes to listen to ideas and sometimes to make my entrance by having a team of fans dressed as coolies carrying me around in a sedan chair. I'd also change my title from "owner" to "Grand Vizier", or possibly "His Most Exulted Sultan-ness".

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04-12-2012, 09:45 PM
  #167
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What position will I hold in the new front office? (I'd be a great head coach. I'd easily be the worst one in the NHL, but I'd delegate everything to the assistants. My job would be to provide obscenely long answers to every question in press conferences.)
Don't worry - I'd take a few of you with me.

Quote:
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Besides, I already plan on winning the jackpot. I'll even set up a fans' council, sometimes to listen to ideas and sometimes to make my entrance by having a team of fans dressed as coolies carrying me around in a sedan chair. I'd also change my title from "owner" to "Grand Vizier", or possibly "His Most Exulted Sultan-ness".
Well, at least the mixed drinks would be stronger.

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04-12-2012, 09:56 PM
  #168
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If Nashville retains the rights to the #1 overall after the draft lottery...
uh..what?

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