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Playoffs and Beyond (2012 Prospect Updates Continued)

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Old
03-26-2012, 08:19 AM
  #26
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I don't think either our owner or our GM want to get into a stick-swinging contest on July 1st. I don't think that, in a vacuum, Nieuwendyk would have been willing to dole out big money to a guy like Brad Richards. I do think they are the type of people willing to sign a certain type of "big name" player and I think Parise would fall into that group that they'd be willing to pay for. I think what they keep reiterating is that you can't build a team through free agency and that fans shouldn't count on flashy signings for the sake of flashy signings. I think Parise is a guy whose reputation precedes him in the yeoman category to the point that he wouldn't be a flashy signing for the sake of getting a big name player.

I'm not expecting anything or getting my hopes up but if I could get into the mind of JN I think he would be happy Parise is a free agent this year and that Richards was a free agent last year.


Last edited by glovesave_35: 03-26-2012 at 06:30 PM.
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Old
03-26-2012, 03:59 PM
  #27
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Nemeth's team won the 1st game of the semifinal at Skellefteå 4-1. Nemeth only played just over 6mins as he injured his foot and had to leave the game earlier. I've been trying to find more info, right now it only seems to be a 'sore foot' that required him to leave the game.

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03-27-2012, 10:12 PM
  #28
Cristiano Ronaldo
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Stransky just tied the game for Saskatoon 2-2 with 3:00 left in the 3rd.

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03-27-2012, 10:30 PM
  #29
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Etem has both Medicine Hat goals. He's got 9 points in the 3 playoff games. Ducks are lucky to have him.

They're in OT right now.

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03-27-2012, 10:44 PM
  #30
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Etem scores his hat trick goal to give Medicine Hat the 3-2 win.

Medicine Hat is now leading the series over Saskatoon 3-0.

At least Stransky had a goal.

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Old
03-27-2012, 11:00 PM
  #31
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CHL
March 27th
vs.
Result 
GAPtsPIM+/-★★★Playoff Totals:GP
G
A
PtsPIM
Stransky
2-3 L
1
0
1
0
0
★★
 
3
1
1
2
2
Vance
2-8 L
0
0
0
0
-2
  
3
0
1
1
2
Theriau
3-2 W
0
0
0
0
0
  
3
0
1
1
0

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Old
03-27-2012, 11:33 PM
  #32
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With Saskatoon falling to 0-3 in the series, I'll go out on a limb and say there's a better than decent chance Stransky and the Blades are eliminated this week.

Next 2 games:
M.H @ SAS | Wed Mar 28 | 7:00 PM
SAS @ M.H | Sat Mar 31 | 7:30 PM *

It's fairly common for prospects to join their draft team's AHL team if they miss the playoffs with their junior team or go out early .... like I've mentioned before.

Stransky could join the Texas Stars once his junior year is officially over. Unless his team get's swept and losses tomorrow, he will definitely miss this weekend's Saturday and Sunday game.

However, depending on how immigration issues work for a Czech citizen working for the first time working in the US with an ATO, I imagine he could join Texas for the final 6 games of the season on Wednesday, 4/4.

Playing in Texas has absolutely no impact on his status as a WHL player. For an example close to home, before Matt Fraser was even signed by Dallas, 2 years ago he joined Peoria (AHL) for several games after his team's WHL season ended.

Since we're on the topic of contracts, Stransky would likely just sign an ATO with Texas, but an ELC isn't out of the question. Signing one obviously has zero impact on him playing in the WHL next season. However, Dallas' deadline to sign him before he re-enters the draft is June 2013. I want to say it's the 1st or the 15th.

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03-28-2012, 01:01 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
If I don't know that he won't help make the WCF you don't know he'll help make the playoffs. I'm saying it's a big gamble for an unknown quantity that could have poor ramifications for the club's future, a future in all probability with a much smaller cap next cba, than the possible positives he could bring. College doesn't necessarily equate to NHL.
What's the big gamble? Your 'worst case' seems to be that he becomes a great player and we have to give him a bigger 2nd contract a year earlier.

I contend that if that happens we'll actually be better off. Look at Benn's progression..

He made the team on his 1st ELC year and was promising.
He backed it up with a very nice 2nd ELC year
In his 3rd ELC year, Benn is now a legit nearly ppg center and is going to land a very large, long term RFA contract that GMJN will be delighted to sign.

Now, what if we had been able to sign Benn to bridge contract after his 2nd year in the league? As solid as he looked then, that deal would've been substantially smaller than what he'll get this summer.

By burning Smith's first ELC year now, we could actually get a discount on him if he follows that same progression.

He plays some games, looks strong, and burns an ELC year this spring. Then he makes the team out of camp this fall and has a Benn-like rookie season. Then he has a solid Benn-like 2nd season. At that point, we re-sign him long term for $2.5 or $3 million.

I don't think this is 'small picture' at all. It's preposterous to pin our playoff hopes on a kid out of college.

Maybe management sees something 'Benn like' in the kid and thinks that can be better than anyone expects sooner than anyone expects. And if he does follow the progression above, then we get him signed to a much cheaper 2nd contract.

Anyway.. however it works out, I find it funny that a 'big gamble' involves a young guy getting to be too good and us having to pay him. Again, look at Benn.. Are you actually upset that he's gotten to be so good and will land a big contract?

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03-28-2012, 02:29 PM
  #34
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Hicks had money till he didn't. Having your owner spend money he doesn't need to on something he could have controlled but didn't because Joe didn't pull the trigger at the deadline or say this team is what it is let it play out is a poor business practice. Maybe that money isn't used to hire another scout. Maybe it's not available to sign another CHL free agent. Perhaps it ties up money that might have gone to a promotion or cheap ticket sale.

The point is money is finite and throwing it around like that number may not matter in two years, especially when you believe in the player in the first place is not good asset management. It's all tied together in one big Dallas Stars pool and when you add to one area you take from another. Does that articulate my issue here?

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03-28-2012, 03:12 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
Hicks had money till he didn't. Having your owner spend money he doesn't need to on something he could have controlled but didn't because Joe didn't pull the trigger at the deadline or say this team is what it is let it play out is a poor business practice. Maybe that money isn't used to hire another scout. Maybe it's not available to sign another CHL free agent. Perhaps it ties up money that might have gone to a promotion or cheap ticket sale.

The point is money is finite and throwing it around like that number may not matter in two years, especially when you believe in the player in the first place is not good asset management. It's all tied together in one big Dallas Stars pool and when you add to one area you take from another. Does that articulate my issue here?
This is the 2nd time I've seen that accusation, and I honestly have to say that's a very weak theory.

You think the Dallas Stars decided on Friday night after Miami lost that Reilly Smith was coming to the NHL? Any decision like this has been brewing. And when has not wasting assets to make a trade at the deadline on a rental every been a bad thing?

If anything, the knowledge that they were going to add Reilly impacting the decision not to make a trade is a much more reasonable assumption then this is a last second effort to save the season.

You're right, no one can argue that a small to modest increase in salary for a single, single season could potentially prevent signing an undrafted free agent or a ticket promotion. However, neither can you say with any certainty that it will, and it just comes off as grasping for a reason not to like the move as opposed to a legitimate reason this is hurting the team.

I get that people see that Dallas "lost" an ELC year feels like they are actually losing something. When I first even considered the idea, that was my biggest issue. No one likes losing something without getting something in return. The fact of the matter is you still control the player the exact same number of years, and there is not guarantee it costs you more money in the long run. In all likelihood it will cost something, but glovesave has presented a more than reasonable scenario where it might not.

I think I'm done defending this though since it seems more like people searching for a reason to be upset than anyone actually illustrating a clear hardship to the team this move has created.

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03-28-2012, 03:54 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
This is the 2nd time I've seen that accusation, and I honestly have to say that's a very weak theory.

You think the Dallas Stars decided on Friday night after Miami lost that Reilly Smith was coming to the NHL? Any decision like this has been brewing. And when has not wasting assets to make a trade at the deadline on a rental every been a bad thing?

If anything, the knowledge that they were going to add Reilly impacting the decision not to make a trade is a much more reasonable assumption then this is a last second effort to save the season.

You're right, no one can argue that a small to modest increase in salary for a single, single season could potentially prevent signing an undrafted free agent or a ticket promotion. However, neither can you say with any certainty that it will, and it just comes off as grasping for a reason not to like the move as opposed to a legitimate reason this is hurting the team.

I get that people see that Dallas "lost" an ELC year feels like they are actually losing something. When I first even considered the idea, that was my biggest issue. No one likes losing something without getting something in return. The fact of the matter is you still control the player the exact same number of years, and there is not guarantee it costs you more money in the long run. In all likelihood it will cost something, but glovesave has presented a more than reasonable scenario where it might not.

I think I'm done defending this though since it seems more like people searching for a reason to be upset than anyone actually illustrating a clear hardship to the team this move has created.
With your (I think they were yours) points on how if Benn had lost a year, he'd have a much better contract, and as well as this going with the theme of trying to build from within, I think you're absolutely right.

I really don't see a negative to Smith losing a year of his ELC. Sure, we're losing a year of him cheap, but if he does follow Benn's course, it's only a positive. It's a risk I'm definitely willing to take, though.

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Old
03-28-2012, 03:57 PM
  #37
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Expecting Smith to follow Benn's development curve is wildly optimistic.

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03-28-2012, 04:05 PM
  #38
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Not as good as Benn, but a similar path, if that makes sense.

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03-28-2012, 05:05 PM
  #39
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Sounds kind of like Ryan but less complete. How good are his hands, though?
They're really good but he really lacks hockey sense. It's going to be a major issue.

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03-28-2012, 05:22 PM
  #40
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They're really good but he really lacks hockey sense. It's going to be a major issue.
Should note you're talking about Etem.

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03-28-2012, 05:24 PM
  #41
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The more I think about it the more I think its a good idea. There isnt much time for evaluation but it would be nice to know if he can get the job done next year and instead of completely gambling on that we can get a quick peek to help clear it up. There are currently two holes in the top 6 and if he is able to fill one they could feel confident if they can only manage to sign or trade for one during the offseason.

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03-28-2012, 05:28 PM
  #42
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I don't think you're going to get a whole lot of useful information like that. It's going to be a tiny sample size to start with barring them going on an incredibly improbable deep playoff run. He'll be playing on adrenaline and without a full understanding of his responsibilities. I wouldn't draw any major conclusions no matter what we see, whether it's good or bad.

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03-28-2012, 05:30 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txomisc View Post
The more I think about it the more I think its a good idea. There isnt much time for evaluation but it would be nice to know if he can get the job done next year and instead of completely gambling on that we can get a quick peek to help clear it up. There are currently two holes in the top 6 and if he is able to fill one they could feel confident if they can only manage to sign or trade for one during the offseason.
I am not too worried about the top 6 holes. I would rather have holes than a logjam. We have guys to fill those holes... they're just rookies, but they should be able to fill them. Smith, Chiasson, Glennie (if he gets his crap together)... if they don't want to risk giving kids top 6 ice time, you sign a 2/3 guy and let them fill in. But honestly, what do we have to lose by giving Reilly and Chiasson top 6 ice time next year? The guys they are displacing are still in the lineup, still have the opportunity to win back their top 6 ice time... ya know, eh.

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03-28-2012, 05:33 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I don't think you're going to get a whole lot of useful information like that. It's going to be a tiny sample size to start with barring them going on an incredibly improbable deep playoff run. He'll be playing on adrenaline and without a full understanding of his responsibilities. I wouldn't draw any major conclusions no matter what we see, whether it's good or bad.
You could certainly get some info if its obvious he isnt ready.

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03-28-2012, 05:34 PM
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What we have to lose is those players' long-term potential. I'm not a fan of skipping the AHL developmental step except in truly outstanding cases. Throwing our prospects straight into the NHL top-6 because we have no other options seems awfully shabby and non-Dallas Stars to me.

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03-28-2012, 05:34 PM
  #46
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I am not too worried about the top 6 holes. I would rather have holes than a logjam. We have guys to fill those holes... they're just rookies, but they should be able to fill them. Smith, Chiasson, Glennie (if he gets his crap together)... if they don't want to risk giving kids top 6 ice time, you sign a 2/3 guy and let them fill in. But honestly, what do we have to lose by giving Reilly and Chiasson top 6 ice time next year? The guys they are displacing are still in the lineup, still have the opportunity to win back their top 6 ice time... ya know, eh.
Id be all on board with it I just dont think the organization would be too into the idea of two top 6 rookies and I really really really don't want to see Steve Ott get top 6 minutes again.

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Old
03-28-2012, 05:51 PM
  #47
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What we have to lose is those players' long-term potential. I'm not a fan of skipping the AHL developmental step except in truly outstanding cases. Throwing our prospects straight into the NHL top-6 because we have no other options seems awfully shabby and non-Dallas Stars to me.
It is possible that this is an outstanding case.

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03-28-2012, 05:53 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
What we have to lose is those players' long-term potential. I'm not a fan of skipping the AHL developmental step except in truly outstanding cases. Throwing our prospects straight into the top-6 because we have no other options seems awfully shabby and non-Dallas Stars to me.
They both have played 3 years of solid college hockey and fairly reputable schools (esp in Chiasson's case) in important roles on these teams. I don't feel that we're skimping on development years for them. They both play a solid defensive game and have been able to produce extremely well while in that defensive scheme. I don't feel like we're throwing these guys into the fire quite yet. Chiasson is going to get some duty in the AHL. Reilly Smith is going to get rapidly acclimated to the NHL in the next week and a half. Joe obviously thinks these two guys are good enough to bring into the fold immediately. If these guys were 18 or 19 and coming out of their freshman year, or their overage season, yeah, they need to hit the AHL for the extra work.

All they can do is get a taste at the pro level and put in the additional work they need to this summer to get ready for camp.

The odds of signing two top 6 wingers to 1 year deals is very very slim. One veteran like Huselius or Whitney might be doable... But I really don't think they'll be necessary.

*PSA: I am really high on Chiasson*

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03-28-2012, 06:52 PM
  #49
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They probably don't view Reilly's potential as particularly high. If his future role with the team is as a complimentary winger he doesn't need AHL time. Chiasson is more of a guy that could carry a line so he needs seasoning.

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03-28-2012, 07:34 PM
  #50
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With your (I think they were yours) points on how if Benn had lost a year, he'd have a much better contract, and as well as this going with the theme of trying to build from within, I think you're absolutely right.

I really don't see a negative to Smith losing a year of his ELC. Sure, we're losing a year of him cheap, but if he does follow Benn's course, it's only a positive. It's a risk I'm definitely willing to take, though.
Credit that to glovesave. I agree with him that it's more than reasonable to believe that it could happen, but I don't actually ultimately believe this is how that will play out. I feel like this will like play out like James Neal bridge and ultimate major deal. Hopefully the bridge negotiation won't be as contentious as Neal's, but Reilly Smith IMO clearly has the potential to match or exceed Neal's production in Dallas.

Quote:
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Expecting Smith to follow Benn's development curve is wildly optimistic.
I would say it's a bit too optimistic, but he has a much better foundation than James Neal in other aspects of the game.

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