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Couturier's rookie Season

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03-29-2012, 07:22 AM
  #1
Appleyard
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Couturier's rookie Season

While everyone who has watched the Flyers on a consistent basis can agree that Sean Couturier has had a great rookie season, his stats and advanced stats show just how dominant he has been, especially on defense, as a rookie.

The guy will be a Selke candidate for a long time, still cannot believe he fell to us... the lowest he should have fell was 4th!

(mods, while I know there have been threads on the rookies, Schenn v Couturier etc, cannot remember one focusing solely on him.)

Selected stats:

10th among rookies in points: 25

3rd among rookies in +/-, 41st among all players.

5th among rookies in facoff % (while going up against generally some of the oppositions best faceoff guys.)

1st among rookie forwards in SH TOI/G: 2.41 (1/5th of his overall playing time.)
10th in the NHL in SH TOI/G.

23rd in NHL in On ice +/- per 60. + 1.20
When he is off ice the team +/- is +0.19...
31st in NHL Forwards in least on ice goals against: 20.

30th in NHL in On ice SV%.

Starts in offensive zone only 40.5% of the time (33rd worst start in NHL, indicating heavily relied on in defensive zone)

Finishes in offensive zone 46.1% of the time, 5.6% increase.

22nd in NHL in Goals against while on ice/60: 1.60 GA/60.

All this while facing the 4th highest quality of competition on the Flyers.

From his play and his stats, it is arguable he is already a top 30 NHL defensive forward as a 19 year old, along with being one of the best PKers in the league, along with having some of the best awareness I have witnessed from such a young player.

I see his floor as Jordan Staal, 50 points, Selke finalist (if you look at the stats, Couturiers defense is already almost at Staals level.)

His ceiling? A Jordan-Eric hybrid? Rod Brind'Amour/Dave Poulin, PPG while being Selke winner?

As it is obvious his offense will increase, especially considering this year he has mainly been playing with Max Talbot and Zac Rinaldo most of the time... not exactly high scoring guys! Plus that he led the QMJHL in PPG two years in a row, and was the first guy since Crosby to lead the league in scoring as a 17 year old.


Last edited by Appleyard: 03-29-2012 at 10:18 AM.
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Old
03-29-2012, 07:44 AM
  #2
Broad Street Elite
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
His ceiling? A Jordan-Eric hybrid? Rod Brind'Amour/Dave Poulin, PPG while being Selke winner?
I would say PPG is a stretch, not because he couldn't do it, but more because so many of his minutes will be defensive in nature and he shares a team with a young, dynamic playmaker at the same position.

I've said it many times before, but easily the best comparison for me is Patrice Bergeron. Sean and Patrice are almost exactly the same size with Sean being slightly bigger. While Patrice was more dynamic offensively during his rookie season, I would suggest that Sean started better defensively. By his second NHL season (separated by the lockout with a full AHL season), Patrice was a 70 point forward, stayed there until his concussion, and is now getting close to that level again.

So, given his start as a stronger defensive player, but weaker offensive threat, I would expect Sean to get to about 40-50 points next year.

For the immediate future, I'm a huge fan of a Voracek - Couturier - Talbot 3rd line, but I see Sean developing into one of the best 2Cs in the league who could be a 1C on many teams. To make the Bergeron comparison better, Sean definitely needs to work on his faceoffs. He hasn't been bad, certainly for a rookie, but it's a big part of being a Selke candidate to be winning 55%+ of your draws.

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03-29-2012, 07:49 AM
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On top of all the other positives, he has bean increasing physical the second half of the season. When he fills out, he will be able to crush some dmen on the forecheck.

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03-29-2012, 07:57 AM
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Ironmanrulez
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This guy is gold!

He plays the difficult minutes on the ice. He plays with the worst teammates and against the strongest opponents. And all that at the age of 19 in his first year in pro hockey. I canīt think of one player in the last years who can compare to him. Sure Staal and Bergeron are close to him but not in the same category.

When he develop like Staal and Begeron did in the past he will be better than the two.

Not to mention how tough he is. After the hit behind the ear he is playing like nothing happend after the medical stuff said he can play.

Itīs funny that only offensive guys are hyped in this league. If he would have the same stats league wide on offense like he has on defense he would mention in the same sentence with Crosby and Ovechkin. Now every Broadcaster say he is a good rookie but nothing more...

Same with GrossmanN !!

But i bet the league will hate themselves for not drafting Couturier!!!

BTW... Who is Schenn???

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03-29-2012, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I would say PPG is a stretch, not because he couldn't do it, but more because so many of his minutes will be defensive in nature and he shares a team with a young, dynamic playmaker at the same position.

I've said it many times before, but easily the best comparison for me is Patrice Bergeron. Sean and Patrice are almost exactly the same size with Sean being slightly bigger. While Patrice was more dynamic offensively during his rookie season, I would suggest that Sean started better defensively. By his second NHL season (separated by the lockout with a full AHL season), Patrice was a 70 point forward, stayed there until his concussion, and is now getting close to that level again.

So, given his start as a stronger defensive player, but weaker offensive threat, I would expect Sean to get to about 40-50 points next year.

For the immediate future, I'm a huge fan of a Voracek - Couturier - Talbot 3rd line, but I see Sean developing into one of the best 2Cs in the league who could be a 1C on many teams. To make the Bergeron comparison better, Sean definitely needs to work on his faceoffs. He hasn't been bad, certainly for a rookie, but it's a big part of being a Selke candidate to be winning 55%+ of your draws.
I like that analysis, I put PPG with the idea that, like Poulin, he will not likely hit it every year due to his defensive responsibilities, but instead that, (I feel) he will hit 80~ points at least once or twice.

Looking back at rookie centers Faceoff percentages compared to current (last 2 years~):

Bergeron: 49.4% (now 58%~)
Datsyuk:47.7% (now 55%~)
Richards: 45.7% (now 50%~)
Crosby: 45.5% (now 53%~)
J.Staal: 37.1% (now 48%~)
E.Staal: 43% (now 50%~)
Toews: 53.2% (now 58%~)
Krejci: 48.2% (now 52%~)
M.Koivu: 47.4% (now 53%~)
Kesler: 46.7% (now 54%~)
Weiss: 46.3% (now 53%~)
Spezza: 45.8% (now 55%~)

Average rookie year: 46.3%
Average now: 53.25%
Increase of: +6.95%

If that average is factored in, Couturier now being at 47.0%, should be about a 54% faceoff guy in 4-5 years time, at worst a 52%, and at best a 56%. IMO, that is good enough for a Selke, being Kesler level.

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03-29-2012, 09:09 AM
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This kid has been lightsout, my hope is that he would be like Jordan Staal. I am pretty sure his offensive numbers aren't as high as Staals in his rookie year, but Staal wasn't as responsibile. Staals rookie year he should have won rookie of the year but malkin won it, because he was over hyped. I look at comparables like his patience with the puck, positional smarts and how he is beginning to control the flow on the pk. He has a great wrist shot and his faceoff skill is only going to get better. His upside is huge, love the player.

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03-29-2012, 09:16 AM
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I hope we will not play him with Shelley next season because we won't have Shelley on our roster.

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03-29-2012, 10:15 AM
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Thanks for compiling all that info Appleyard. It was a good read and re-reminds me why I love that trade and will continue to love it forever.

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03-29-2012, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by jd2210 View Post
Thanks for compiling all that info Appleyard. It was a good read and re-reminds me why I love that trade and will continue to love it forever.
Recchi for Desjardins and LeClair, redux.

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03-29-2012, 11:21 AM
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Recchi for Desjardins and LeClair, redux.
That's the trade that comes to mind every time I think about.

Also, I've mentioned this before, Eric Staal is my belief for his ceiling.

People here think defensive ability and immediately think Eric's brother, but realistically Eric is pretty damn good defensively too. You don't hear much about it nor do you see him getting Selke votes because it's in Carolina and he's on his own pretty much.

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03-29-2012, 11:27 AM
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If I were to picture a forward that Couturier reminds me of, it's another great center that we had for the flyers. I'm surprised that he was never likened to him before.

Keith Primeau.

Dominant in the defensive zone, Killer wrist shot, big hits, Good size, not so great foot speed. He just is the complete package.

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03-29-2012, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
That's the trade that comes to mind every time I think about.

Also, I've mentioned this before, Eric Staal is my belief for his ceiling.

People here think defensive ability and immediately think Eric's brother, but realistically Eric is pretty damn good defensively too. You don't hear much about it nor do you see him getting Selke votes because it's in Carolina and he's on his own pretty much.
Not really disagreeing, because he is pretty solid defensively. But wasn't he about -27 to start the season? Don't like +/-, but that is pretty bad... Anyone know what he's at now?

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03-29-2012, 05:02 PM
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http://www.csnphilly.com/03/29/12/bF...332&feedID=695

Article about Coots and how he should be considered for the Calder but won't be.

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03-29-2012, 05:09 PM
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I luv him.

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03-29-2012, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
http://www.csnphilly.com/03/29/12/bF...332&feedID=695

Article about Coots and how he should be considered for the Calder but won't be.
Great aticle. I still cannot believe he fell to us at eight. I had him rated at three. With only Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog(who I have a friggin man crush on) ahead of him. I like the fact he is playing with a little more sand to his game recently. He is such a smart player who understands the game so well. In a few years when he fills out you have to think he could be a special player. Thank you bluejackets!

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03-29-2012, 05:32 PM
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Great aticle. I still cannot believe he fell to us at eight. I had him rated at three. With only Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog(who I have a friggin man crush on) ahead of him. I like the fact he is playing with a little more sand to his game recently. He is such a smart player who understands the game so well. In a few years when he fills out you have to think he could be a special player. Thank you bluejackets!
I had him at 2... after RNH, tied with Landeskog...

The only guy at the time I wanted over him was Landeskog.

Couturier led the whole of the CHL in PPG last year (draft eligable players), in believe it or not, the lowest scoring league, (QMJHL, yes, historically high scoring but not any more) while also being +55 or more 2 years in a row, was obviously the best defensive forward in the draft.

He won the 3 main QMJHL individual trophies over career.
Only underaged player on world u-20s.
One of only 4(? maybe 5) player in last 30 years to lead QMJHL as 17 year old.
Great faceoff guy in junior.
Big, strong on the boards.

The only downside was his skating, and still, he is not exactly Maxime Bosclair. (on a side note, always felt sad that Bosclair was such a bad skater, if he could have improved could have been a solid NHL forward.)

All that after having mononucleosis over the offseason, a condition that usually takes 6 months minimum to recover from, meaning he gained no weight from his 17 year old season to draft year, and could not work out properly.

We were so lucky to get a top 3 talent in a draft that had a great top 5, with the 8th overall pick!

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03-29-2012, 05:49 PM
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How this guy has 25 points playing with the guys he plays with in the role he plays is remarkable.

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03-29-2012, 05:59 PM
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Couturier reminds me of Ron Francis. He'll be more than a 50 point forward in Philadelphia. It won't surprise me at all when he becomes the 2nd line center there. His offensive game and defensive game are light years ahead of Schenn's, yet for some strange reason, people only view him as a third line center. This is a guy who has exceptional offensive skills. There's no way the Flyers waste him in a Primeau role. He's going to be a top guy here and 70 - 80 point seasons with exceptional defensive ability should be the norm from Couturier.

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03-29-2012, 06:04 PM
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How this guy has 25 points playing with the guys he plays with in the role he plays is remarkable.
Even more impressive is his defensive numbers. Compare them to the guys he's played with for the most of the time (Zolnierczyk and Rinaldo) and it's just silly how good he's been as a rookie.

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03-29-2012, 06:15 PM
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I love everything about him. At this point, he could rob a bank, and I'd still be all, "That Couts. What a guy."

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03-29-2012, 06:45 PM
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I genuinely wouldn't do backsies on the Carter trade for Couts alone, that was such an amazing trade.

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03-29-2012, 06:54 PM
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I believe he will go 92g-163a-215p in his second season, remember, you saw it here first.

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