I got excited about Palmieri because in his last stint he looked like a pro. Not much different than Ryan in his rookie year, just lacking a bit in the finish.
Nationality has absolutely nothing to do with it and you found the flaw in your own logic right after you said it "if that's the case Etem should be everybody's favorite prospect.
smells like weed? what's that supposed to mean?
I still believe a lot of American hockey fans are biased towards American players, but you'll be hard pressed to get many to admit it.
because a lot of first round picks go straight to the NHL, and don't play in the AHL for a full season.
a lot of star players bypass the AHL altogether.
such a large percentage of the top players in the WHL never even play in the AHL, let alone the NHL? ... not even close. define large percentage.
Getzlaf and Perry developed in the CHL... the AHL didn't really factor in at all for those guys, despite playing in the AHL for a little bit.
If the US national development team is so looked down upon... we've sure drafted a lot of players from that team.
in any given WHL season, a lot of the top players become eventual NHL players. In any given AHL season, a lot of the top scoring players are career AHL'ers.
Good job, you trolled me.
The WHL had 33 players drafted last year. 43 the year before. 31 in 2009. They dont even lead the CHL in players drafted. It's pretty clear that most of the WHL players never sniff the AHL. And all you have to do is look at the top post on the last page to see that a significant number of the WHL's most productive players never pan out in the NHL. Or AHL.
The WHL had 33 players drafted last year. 43 the year before. 31 in 2009. They dont even lead the CHL in players drafted. It's pretty clear that most of the WHL players never sniff the AHL. And all you have to do is look at the top post on the last page to see that a significant number of the WHL's most productive players never pan out in the NHL. Or AHL.
most AHL'ers never pan out in the NHL either. The WHL has way more future superstars than the AHL... a lot of the top drafted players from the CHL bypass the AHL totally.
I still think the best development league for the NHL is the NHL. (when talking about players with a lot of talent and star potential)
(although, I think I should be more clear... when I say the AHL is overrated as a development league, I mean it's overrated for top prospects, who are fully capable of playing in the NHL) I just think some players are better off going straight to the NHL, and if that doesn't work out.. you can always send em to the AHL)
How many were first round picks?
How many were short guys with no speed?
How many actually scored a goal per game like Etem?
Etem has almost nothing in common with these guys, he's dominated the league since he was 17
how many short guys "with no speed" do you think have a shot in hell at being the leading scorer in the WHL?
typically short players are fast, otherwise, they'd have no chance at playing in a league like the WHL... unless they have gretzky like hockey sense.
The WHL is considered a weak league for offensive talent. Better than the Q, but not as good as the OHL. Just look at the WHL scoring leaders the past few years compared to the OHL scoring leaders and how they end up.
I will say that seanconn is right that full season AHL scoring leaders rarely make it to the NHL. But it has little to do with how poorly results translate. It has more to do with the fact that there's a reason the kid is left down there that long in a season to accumulate those numbers. The real talented ones are quickly moved to the NHL.
That said, here's some actual data to compare the WHL to the AHL. If the WHL was a better league, then you would expect players who score x PPG in the WHL to have less of a drop when moving to the NHL. Here's something an Oiler fan did a couple years back on league equivalencies. http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/6/...-equivalencies . It's based off something done by Gabriel Desjardins of behind the net. I'll reference both, but I like the Oiler's fan one because it separates by age.
I'll go by median. For a 19 year old in the WHL (Etem), his point equivalency is about 0.315 (but only 4 players to anchor this on). Meaning that historically, a guy who scores 100 points in the WHL as a 19 year old can be expected to score 32 points in the NHL as a 20 year old. For a 20 year old, the AHL equivalency is 0.49. This means AHL numbers are better for translating to the NHL than WHL numbers.
The original paper about this http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_...ivalencies.pdf also found the AHL to be superior. WHL has a equivalency of 0.30 vs the AHL at 0.45. And this has a much larger n to better estimate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OccupySheen
How many were first round picks?
How many were short guys with no speed?
How many actually scored a goal per game like Etem?
Etem has almost nothing in common with these guys, he's dominated the league since he was 17
You're pretty much just denying history. Yes you can look retroactively and say "oh this guy doesn't count because he was shorter than Etem" or "oh this guy doesn't count because he's slower." But people were probably saying the same thing for those kids.
That's the whole point of using a larger group without picking and choosing, like he did. To get a picture of what to expect. He just chose the scoring leaders of the WHL in the last decade. And the results don't look good. That doesn't say Etem will go that way. But it clearly shows that it's no slam dunk.
It's fine for you to say "oh I've seen this guy and he's a lock in the NHL." But that's very subjective, and you'll have to excuse other people if they don't trust your judgement just like that. In the meantime there is historical data to give other people some idea of what to expect.
Last edited by snarktacular: 03-30-2012 at 10:15 PM.
I still believe a lot of American hockey fans are biased towards American players, but you'll be hard pressed to get many to admit it.
Not on the west coast and definitely not in California. Remember we dont have USHL or major college hockey over here, so that affinity for American players is never really created. Not to mention the overall melting pot that the state is.
... think what you want. WHL is exciting to watch, AHL... not so much.
Run and gun hockey vs. a more structured professional game plan. No wonder you find it more exciting.
That doesn't mean the skill level is higher. Almost everything you've said comes down to your own personal bias. A little ironic when you accused us of liking Palmieri because he's American, and a little funny when you immediately contradicted yourself on that count.
Also, your argument about the AHL vs. the CHL ignores the way those leagues work. If a prospect is lighting it up in the AHL he's probably going to get called up. In the Juniors? He's sticking around with his Junior team. Your argument for why the WHL is superior just doesn't pan out, on that fact alone.
Run and gun hockey vs. a more structured professional game plan. No wonder you find it more exciting.
That doesn't mean the skill level is higher. Almost everything you've said comes down to your own personal bias. A little ironic when you accused us of liking Palmieri because he's American, and a little funny when you immediately contradicted yourself on that count.
Also, your argument about the AHL vs. the CHL ignores the way those leagues work. If a prospect is lighting it up in the AHL he's probably going to get called up. In the Juniors? He's sticking around with his Junior team. Your argument for why the WHL is superior just doesn't pan out, on that fact alone.
that's not the point I'm trying to make about the AHL. Of course the AHL has a lot of good players, but it's a minor league.
The dub, OHL and the Q are all the best junior leagues in the world. I guess what I'm saying is, I'm against the AHL first attitude of a lot of GM's and coaches.
Sure, sometimes it's the best option, but that list of mediocre WHL top goal scorers from the previous page doesn't mean a lot. There's been great players to come out of the WHL, and many American players too. When your dealing with top end talent, sometimes it's just worth it to take a chance. Lots of late picks end up being the best players in their draft years.
that list doesn't really say much to me, since players break the mold all the time. Just because a bunch of players like Lupul scored a bunch of goals and had mediocre success in the NHL or none at all for others, doesn't mean the same for Etem.
The best players in the WHL have often became really great hockey players. Obviously I'm biased because I live in a city with a WHL team, and live in Western Canada.
I'm pretty sure it has at least something to do with it. If anything it is at least a North American bias. I was simply not impressed with Palmieri at all, until the last few games, which could have easily just been lucky positioning.
Say what you want about the skill level of the WHL and AHL, when it comes down to talent, the best players in major junior are much more talented than the best players in the American hockey league. At that, Etem is one of the best players in the entire CHL right now.
I think a lot of posters are giving Palmieri way too much credit for his success in the AHL, but automatically discount success in junior as nothing solid.
it just seems like every single year you guys go on and on about how great the AHL is for developing players, then players like Fowler and DSP come along and make a pretty good transition out of major Junior. Etem is 19, and coming off a career year in the WHL, he deserves a shot at 9 games. Seriously, like who else do the ducks have to replace Etem, and who's a better player we can afford to sign in free agency.
Not taking a chance on a 60 goal scorer from the WHL, when we have no other talent, and a small budget. If Etem can produce at .4 ppg, he'd be a huge addition to the team, and would be great for his development. I have no reason to believe he couldn't.
The UFA market is bunk this year, especially with our budget. youth is the way to go on our budget.
Run and gun hockey vs. a more structured professional game plan. No wonder you find it more exciting.
That doesn't mean the skill level is higher. Almost everything you've said comes down to your own personal bias. A little ironic when you accused us of liking Palmieri because he's American, and a little funny when you immediately contradicted yourself on that count.
Also, your argument about the AHL vs. the CHL ignores the way those leagues work. If a prospect is lighting it up in the AHL he's probably going to get called up. In the Juniors? He's sticking around with his Junior team. Your argument for why the WHL is superior just doesn't pan out, on that fact alone.
umm... two words, Sven Bartschi. kid got called up and destroyed with the horrible Flames.
player in juniors CAN'T get called up to the NHL unless of an injury sitiuation, which can only happen late in season usually, since so many people have to be injured.
At least in the AHL we have the option of bringing in Etem if he is lightiing it up. But I don't see why lighting it up in the AHL is much great accomplishment than what he is doing in juniors. like the point projections snark mentioned showed.
All I'm saying is, if he is a top scorer in the AHL, and 19 years old,he should be close to cracking the NHL roster, otherwise, he's not the player he's been projected to be.
I'll take a chance on Etem before Palmieri, but like i said before, I think we need both to make the team in order to make a splash.
trade mcmillan, cogliano, ellis, schultz (if we have to), trade up in the draft, or trade for some bigger forwards, and we can make all of our lines physical again.
If Koivu and Selanne are staying, we could seriously stay competitive with really smart trades. Too bad Bob Murray just had his way with us already.
Still though, I think Teemu could stay another 2 seasons, and go out playing with Saku at the Olympics and end his career at 43. Who knows what our team could look like then, with Selanne maybe even showing serious signs he should retire.
For Etem to miss out on playing with Teemu Selanne is just something I think he would never forgive himself for.
I'm sure he's going to give it his all to make the team. The kid has a big ego, and I don't think we should risk deflating him in the AHL, especially not if he shows a capacity to be effective in the NHL. I don't give a crap about what Etem can do in the AHL. I want him to help the Ducks next season, if he can. plain and simple.
A couple things about Etem vs Palmieri. Etem probably has more potential than Palmieri. More tools, and higher production. But we're focused on next year.
Going by the NHL equivalencies I posted earlier (the ones split by age), Etem's last season projects to 37.3 points and 21.3 goals. Palmieri's season is projects to 49 points and 28.5 goals. I had projected their partial seasons to full WHL and AHL seasons. So by these equivalencies, Palmieri might be expected to do better.
Another set of data. WJC performance. Palmieri in his 19 year old season had 6 points in 6 games (2 goals, 4 assists). Etem had 4 points in 6 games (0 goals, 4 assists). And Palmieri's performance was a year ago, he would be expected to improve since then. Again Palmieri projects better currently.
Finally a third point, this one completely subjective. Etem strikes me as a guy who needs some time to adjust. I have less doubts than many about his eventual success because I think he has the work ethic to iron it out. But there is a good point that he seems to not do too well when first moving up. See his performance in WJC or his first NHL training camp. So again, I think Palmieri is hte safer bet to immediately contribute to the Ducks.
umm... two words, Sven Bartschi. kid got called up and destroyed with the horrible Flames.
player in juniors CAN'T get called up to the NHL unless of an injury sitiuation, which can only happen late in season usually, since so many people have to be injured.
At least in the AHL we have the option of bringing in Etem if he is lightiing it up. But I don't see why lighting it up in the AHL is much great accomplishment than what he is doing in juniors. like the point projections snark mentioned showed.
All I'm saying is, if he is a top scorer in the AHL, and 19 years old,he should be close to cracking the NHL roster, otherwise, he's not the player he's been projected to be.
I'll take a chance on Etem before Palmieri, but like i said before, I think we need both to make the team in order to make a splash.
trade mcmillan, cogliano, ellis, schultz (if we have to), trade up in the draft, or trade for some bigger forwards, and we can make all of our lines physical again.
If Koivu and Selanne are staying, we could seriously stay competitive with really smart trades. Too bad Bob Murray just had his way with us already.
Still though, I think Teemu could stay another 2 seasons, and go out playing with Saku at the Olympics and end his career at 43. Who knows what our team could look like then, with Selanne maybe even showing serious signs he should retire.
For Etem to miss out on playing with Teemu Selanne is just something I think he would never forgive himself for.
I'm sure he's going to give it his all to make the team. The kid has a big ego, and I don't think we should risk deflating him in the AHL, especially not if he shows a capacity to be effective in the NHL. I don't give a crap about what Etem can do in the AHL. I want him to help the Ducks next season, if he can. plain and simple.
One word - Exception. One player is your argument? Not only that, but it doesn't contradict what I said in any way. My point was that good prospects in the AHL aren't likely to get a full season in the AHL if they are kicking ass offensively. You were arguing that players who lead the AHL don't become good NHL players, and that argument is flawed.
Yes, I know players in the Juniors can't be called up. I said that. It's part of the reason I've said your argument is flawed. A player who lights it up in the Juniors can't be called up, so he continues to light it up. A player in the AHL? His team is going to give him a chance to show he can light it up in the NHL, as they should.
Etem might project to be the better player, but that doesn't mean he currently is the better player. That's the part of this that you don't seem to be getting. Etem is a player who looks like he's going to need an adjustment period in the AHL, before he's ready for the NHL. Palmieri is already going through that phase, and he looks like he's ready to make the next step, or he's close to it.
It would be far more deflating for Etem to struggle in the NHL, than it would be to go to the AHL for a bit. Let the kid earn his way on the team. He'll have his opportunity. If he's ready to stay, then I imagine Murray will make room for him. But let him earn that spot.
As for giving credit for Palmieri in the AHL vs. Etem in the WHL... there are a ton of people giving credit to Etem. What he's doing is great. It's just also clear that the way he's scoring a lot of those goals in the WHL is not going to work in the NHL. He's going to need to make those adjustments, and like snark, I like his chances because he has the work ethic. I think Etem will do whatever it takes to be the NHL player he can be.
However, the difference between the AHL and the NHL is smaller than the WHL and the NHL. It's a smaller jump. This is one of the reasons coaches and GM's like the AHL. You're not just throwing prospects into the deep end. They go from the kiddy pool into the shallow end. Some prospects are cut out for skipping that step, but most aren't(which is why the vast majority of players spend some time in the AHL).
With all that in mind, that's exactly why some of us are excited about Palmieri's production in the AHL, and why I think he's currently ahead of Etem on the depth chart.
most AHL'ers never pan out in the NHL either. The WHL has way more future superstars than the AHL... a lot of the top drafted players from the CHL bypass the AHL totally.
I still think the best development league for the NHL is the NHL. (when talking about players with a lot of talent and star potential)
(although, I think I should be more clear... when I say the AHL is overrated as a development league, I mean it's overrated for top prospects, who are fully capable of playing in the NHL) I just think some players are better off going straight to the NHL, and if that doesn't work out.. you can always send em to the AHL)
Thats my whole point... People on these boards expect players to play in the AHL as like some sort of Mandatory stepping stone when it's not entirely necessary.
Thats my whole point... People on these boards expect players to play in the AHL as like some sort of Mandatory stepping stone when it's not entirely necessary.
It's not mandatory, but it's usually necessary. The numbers on this are quite clear.
Spending some time in the Ahl is good for a players development. It makes the step from the juniors to NHL a little more natural and easier. I as a swede am all for our swedish prospects to spend one year or two in the ahl in order to grow as a player and get familiar with the more aggressive game in the NHL.
Etem's not a speedster? Etem is easily one of, if not the fastest player in the WHL, I can't believe anyone would consider him anything but a, "speedster".
Etem's not a speedster? Etem is easily one of, if not the fastest player in the WHL, I can't believe anyone would consider him anything but a, "speedster".
Don't mind them.... These are people who are highly likely of not watching him outside of a few games in training camp. .... Kids fast as hell and has the most goals in the entire CHL this season.
The WHL is considered a weak league for offensive talent. Better than the Q, but not as good as the OHL. Just look at the WHL scoring leaders the past few years compared to the OHL scoring leaders and how they end up.
I will say that seanconn is right that full season AHL scoring leaders rarely make it to the NHL. But it has little to do with how poorly results translate. It has more to do with the fact that there's a reason the kid is left down there that long in a season to accumulate those numbers. The real talented ones are quickly moved to the NHL.
That said, here's some actual data to compare the WHL to the AHL. If the WHL was a better league, then you would expect players who score x PPG in the WHL to have less of a drop when moving to the NHL. Here's something an Oiler fan did a couple years back on league equivalencies. http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/6/...-equivalencies . It's based off something done by Gabriel Desjardins of behind the net. I'll reference both, but I like the Oiler's fan one because it separates by age.
I'll go by median. For a 19 year old in the WHL (Etem), his point equivalency is about 0.315 (but only 4 players to anchor this on). Meaning that historically, a guy who scores 100 points in the WHL as a 19 year old can be expected to score 32 points in the NHL as a 20 year old. For a 20 year old, the AHL equivalency is 0.49. This means AHL numbers are better for translating to the NHL than WHL numbers.
The original paper about this http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_...ivalencies.pdf also found the AHL to be superior. WHL has a equivalency of 0.30 vs the AHL at 0.45. And this has a much larger n to better estimate.
You're pretty much just denying history. Yes you can look retroactively and say "oh this guy doesn't count because he was shorter than Etem" or "oh this guy doesn't count because he's slower." But people were probably saying the same thing for those kids.
That's the whole point of using a larger group without picking and choosing, like he did. To get a picture of what to expect. He just chose the scoring leaders of the WHL in the last decade. And the results don't look good. That doesn't say Etem will go that way. But it clearly shows that it's no slam dunk.
It's fine for you to say "oh I've seen this guy and he's a lock in the NHL." But that's very subjective, and you'll have to excuse other people if they don't trust your judgement just like that. In the meantime there is historical data to give other people some idea of what to expect.
Denying history? No more like saying examine each player and situation case by case these players are not all equals.
The "data" proves absolutely nothing about who Etem is as a player, infact it's a pretty lazy way to try and question Etem really. I guess if finishing 2nd in scoring had a bunch of highly rated NHL players, that would somehow mean more, projecting his career?
I am not sure what exactly Etem has to do, score less than a goal per game? would that magically make him better in some twisted way?
Last edited by KEEROLE Vatanen: 03-31-2012 at 11:53 PM.
Denying history? No more like saying examine each player and situation case by case these players are not all equals.
The "data" proves absolutely nothing about who Etem is as a player, infact it's a pretty lazy way to try and question Etem really. I guess if finishing 2nd in scoring had a bunch of highly rated NHL players, that would somehow mean more, projecting his career?
I am not sure what exactly Etem has to do, score less than a goal per game? would that magically make him better in some twisted way?
You're correct, several of those players were chosen significantly higher in the first round than Etem was. The point is that being the top goal scorer in the WHL isn't as big a deal historically as you're making it out to be. How the player scores their goals and their overall skills are more important.
What Etem has to do is show that his game translates when he's not the biggest, fastest player on the ice. He failed to do so last September. He failed to do so at the world juniors. So until he DOES, he's nothing but potential. High end potential, yes. But also not a sure thing, and not CURRENTLY more likely to succeed than a player who has shown to ability to do so (Palmieri). It's impressive he can skate rings around children. It's not so impressive he's yet to show the ability to succeed against young adults and men.
Denying history? No more like saying examine each player and situation case by case these players are not all equals.
The "data" proves absolutely nothing about who Etem is as a player, infact it's a pretty lazy way to try and question Etem really. I guess if finishing 2nd in scoring had a bunch of highly rated NHL players, that would somehow mean more, projecting his career?
I am not sure what exactly Etem has to do, score less than a goal per game? would that magically make him better in some twisted way?
Not one poster has said that Etem will bust or that Etem won't be a productive NHLer in the future. We're only pointing out that he is not a sure thing to make the lineup out of camp next year and we shouldn't just pencil him into a spot in the top 6 before he's earned it. He is very likely to need some AHL time to adjust to the pro game and learn how to score against grown men.
You're correct, several of those players were chosen significantly higher in the first round than Etem was. The point is that being the top goal scorer in the WHL isn't as big a deal historically as you're making it out to be. How the player scores their goals and their overall skills are more important.
What Etem has to do is show that his game translates when he's not the biggest, fastest player on the ice. He failed to do so last September. He failed to do so at the world juniors. So until he DOES, he's nothing but potential. High end potential, yes. But also not a sure thing, and not CURRENTLY more likely to succeed than a player who has shown to ability to do so (Palmieri). It's impressive he can skate rings around children. It's not so impressive he's yet to show the ability to succeed against young adults and men.
Layne Ulmer-7th round pick
Joffrey Lupul-1st round pick
Erik Christensen-3rd round pick
Jeremy Williams-7th round pick
Eric Fehr-1st round pick
Justin Keller-8th round pick
Mark Derlago-Undrafted
Colton Yellow Horn-Undrafted
Joel Broda-5th round pick
Kyle Beach-1st round pick
Tyler Johnson-Undrafted
what we have? mostly lower round picks, because the players weren't highly thought of, Fehr is a bust, Beach is still young and developing.
Etem has scored at basically a GPG level, nobody else here did.
No coming out of nowhere, he has come in and been a top player since day one in the league. He has done nothing to have people downplay and pick apart his game to the level this forum has, he's not comparable to any of those players at all except maybe Lupul
I love how you guys take small sample sizes as "failing" there's an adjustment period for every player, if he stepped foot in the NHL right NOW, he WOULD be one of the fastest players in the entire league
Layne Ulmer-7th round pick
Joffrey Lupul-1st round pick
Erik Christensen-3rd round pick
Jeremy Williams-7th round pick
Eric Fehr-1st round pick
Justin Keller-8th round pick
Mark Derlago-Undrafted
Colton Yellow Horn-Undrafted
Joel Broda-5th round pick
Kyle Beach-1st round pick
Tyler Johnson-Undrafted
what we have? mostly lower round picks, because the players weren't highly thought of, Fehr is a bust, Beach is still young and developing.
Etem has scored at basically a GPG level, nobody else here did.
No coming out of nowhere, he has come in and been a top player since day one in the league. He has done nothing to have people downplay and pick apart his game to the level this forum has, he's not comparable to any of those players at all except maybe Lupul
I love how you guys take small sample sizes as "failing" there's an adjustment period for every player, if he stepped foot in the NHL right NOW, he WOULD be one of the fastest players in the entire league
Denying history? No more like saying examine each player and situation case by case these players are not all equals.
The "data" proves absolutely nothing about who Etem is as a player, infact it's a pretty lazy way to try and question Etem really. I guess if finishing 2nd in scoring had a bunch of highly rated NHL players, that would somehow mean more, projecting his career?
I am not sure what exactly Etem has to do, score less than a goal per game? would that magically make him better in some twisted way?
Yes denying history. The claim was that leading the WHL in goal-scoring (and not points, as Etem is only 7th) means that the player will not need any AHL time next season. DVM then listed all the players who led in goal-scoring in the recent period. That's unbiased data.
If you want, feel free to make your own data set. But the burden of proof is now on your side of the argument. Say go back the last 20 years and find 1st rounders who were top-5 in goal scoring. Or only use GPG players in the past 30 yeras. See if it looks better.
For 1st rounders, you already have 3 players listed. And despite your numerous disclaimers, none help prove the original argument. Lupul went back to the WHL his next year, and Fehr and Beach both played in the AHL the next season.
