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Rangers will be getting more Tommy Grants and Zuccarellos

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04-01-2012, 12:05 PM
  #1
Beacon
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Rangers will be getting more Tommy Grants and Zuccarellos

I have a strong suspicion that we will be getting more Zuccarellos and Tommy Grants in the coming years. At least I hope so.


Our team has been built through the draft in the recent years. Unfortunately, that may come to an end very soon. Our prospect corps are already thinning. We have quality prospects on top, but we don't have the depth we had before.

With guys like Hagelin, Erixon and maybe Kreider graduating by the end of next year, and other prospects like Zuccarello and Valentenko likely leaving, the quality of our prospect corp will be hit badly.

3 of the top 4, and 5 of the top 15 prospects in our prospect poll will probably not be our prospects a year from now, replaced by a pair of second-tier prospects drafted at #30 and #60. And that's not counting for the possibility of us trading away prospects to improve the team.

This is approximately how I expect our top-dozen prospects to look:


1. C J.T. Miller
2. D Dylan McIlrath
3. C Michael St. Croix
4. RW Christian Thomas
5. RW Jesper Fasth
6. 2012 First Rounder
7. C Andrew Yogan
8. 2012 Second Rounder
9. C Steven Fogarty
10. C Oscar Lindberg
11. RW Shane McColgan
12. LW Ryan Bourque

The rest of the prospects are not really worth discussing right now because they are too marginal. But even the above list is not too impressive.

- St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth: all high-risk.
- Yogan, Fogarty, Lindberg, McColgan, Bourque: potential limited to the bottom-6.
- Even Miller and McIlrath don't have game-breaker potential. They will most likely be average to above-average NHLers, not stars.


Now I get that people will say, "if you have all your prospects already in the NHL, then what's the problem?"

There are 2 problems. First, any young for age trade to acquire a scorer would decimate our farm and leave it nearly empty considering how few prospects we have. In the current position, we can't pull a trade for a good player in his prime because it would leave us without good prospects.

The second problem is the salary cap. We can't afford to carry highly-paid players like Richards and Gaborik unless we have a constant flow of young players with cheap contracts.

A team can normally do this through the draft. However, I expect that the Rangers will be a very good team in the next few years, at least until the end of Gaborik's contract, so our 2012, 2013 and 2014 draft positions will be very late.

This year we will get either #29 or #30. The odds of getting even a marginal NHL player at this position are against us.

Even in strong drafts like 1990, 1997 and 2003, draft picks at 29-30 failed to make the NHL. Of the 20 players drafted at 29 and 30 in the 1990s, only 5 played 400+ games (5 seasons of 80 games), and the best of them were Jonathan Cheechoo and Sandis Ozolinsh, not exactly Hall of Famers. (The others were Jassen Cullimore, Stan Neckar, Deron Quint.)

I just don't see us being able to consistently place 1-3 prospects a year into our lineup with late draft picks.

Another way for people to acquire prospects is to trade away vets for youth, as we did when we dealt Gomez for McDonagh. But again, this will not be something we'll be doing in the near future, barring some sort of a team collapse. If anything, we will be doing the reverse: trading away youth to get veterans.


So what's left? The only option on the table is to acquire young players who may not have been drafted, but then blossomed, or to acquire reclamation projects.

In both cases, most will be failures. For every Girardi, there will be 5 Tommy Grants. Most reclamation projects will be failures as well.

But we have no other choice. We will need to fill up our prospect corps and unless we do that, our team may be in trouble when Gaborik's contract ends, and a bunch of our young players will need large pay raises around the same time.


Last edited by Beacon: 04-01-2012 at 12:12 PM.
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04-01-2012, 12:14 PM
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I can usually count on you to tell us once a month how "bright the future looks". Why the sudden change? I'm sure we will be just fine, there are a lot of good prospects you just listed and players don't go from 23 to 30, so I'm sure that will be ample time to draft and sign new talent. This is a bit premature, and I'm not entirely sold that Zuke will be let go. They may bring him back next year, he looked good and the team likes players that know the system, and he does.

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04-01-2012, 12:20 PM
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Rangers will likely continue drafting well.

Stepan, Callahan, Anisimov, Dubinsky, Sauer, were all 2nd+ rounders.

If we add Schultz, that's another legit blue-chip prospect.

You're concern is certainly warranted because we are graduating a lot of players at a quick pace. But I have faith they'll continue to stock up on talent.

St. Croix, Fogarty, Yogan, Fasth, Thomas...they were all 2nd+ round picks, too.

If we add Schultz we can use the first round pick on another winger like Kerdiles if he drops far enough.

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04-01-2012, 12:24 PM
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When scouts say the drafts are not deep, I never trust that. You never know what players bloom after the draft.

That's why you don't poo poo middle-late round picks. You can find great value there.

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04-01-2012, 12:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
I have a strong suspicion that we will be getting more Zuccarellos and Tommy Grants in the coming years. At least I hope so.


Our team has been built through the draft in the recent years. Unfortunately, that may come to an end very soon. Our prospect corps are already thinning. We have quality prospects on top, but we don't have the depth we had before.

With guys like Hagelin, Erixon and maybe Kreider graduating by the end of next year, and other prospects like Zuccarello and Valentenko likely leaving, the quality of our prospect corp will be hit badly.

3 of the top 4, and 5 of the top 15 prospects in our prospect poll will probably not be our prospects a year from now, replaced by a pair of second-tier prospects drafted at #30 and #60. And that's not counting for the possibility of us trading away prospects to improve the team.

This is approximately how I expect our top-dozen prospects to look:


1. C J.T. Miller
2. D Dylan McIlrath
3. C Michael St. Croix
4. RW Christian Thomas
5. RW Jesper Fasth
6. 2012 First Rounder
7. C Andrew Yogan
8. 2012 Second Rounder
9. C Steven Fogarty
10. C Oscar Lindberg
11. RW Shane McColgan
12. LW Ryan Bourque

The rest of the prospects are not really worth discussing right now because they are too marginal. But even the above list is not too impressive.

- St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth: all high-risk.
- Yogan, Fogarty, Lindberg, McColgan, Bourque: potential limited to the bottom-6.
- Even Miller and McIlrath don't have game-breaker potential. They will most likely be average to above-average NHLers, not stars.


Now I get that people will say, "if you have all your prospects already in the NHL, then what's the problem?"

There are 2 problems. First, any young for age trade to acquire a scorer would decimate our farm and leave it nearly empty considering how few prospects we have. In the current position, we can't pull a trade for a good player in his prime because it would leave us without good prospects.

The second problem is the salary cap. We can't afford to carry highly-paid players like Richards and Gaborik unless we have a constant flow of young players with cheap contracts.

A team can normally do this through the draft. However, I expect that the Rangers will be a very good team in the next few years, at least until the end of Gaborik's contract, so our 2012, 2013 and 2014 draft positions will be very late.

This year we will get either #29 or #30. The odds of getting even a marginal NHL player at this position are against us.

Even in strong drafts like 1990, 1997 and 2003, draft picks at 29-30 failed to make the NHL. Of the 20 players drafted at 29 and 30 in the 1990s, only 5 played 400+ games (5 seasons of 80 games), and the best of them were Jonathan Cheechoo and Sandis Ozolinsh, not exactly Hall of Famers. (The others were Jassen Cullimore, Stan Neckar, Deron Quint.)

I just don't see us being able to consistently place 1-3 prospects a year into our lineup with late draft picks.

Another way for people to acquire prospects is to trade away vets for youth, as we did when we dealt Gomez for McDonagh. But again, this will not be something we'll be doing in the near future, barring some sort of a team collapse. If anything, we will be doing the reverse: trading away youth to get veterans.


So what's left? The only option on the table is to acquire young players who may not have been drafted, but then blossomed, or to acquire reclamation projects.

In both cases, most will be failures. For every Girardi, there will be 5 Tommy Grants. Most reclamation projects will be failures as well.

But we have no other choice. We will need to fill up our prospect corps and unless we do that, our team may be in trouble when Gaborik's contract ends, and a bunch of our young players will need large pay raises around the same time.
And why is that? Look at how many guys we have contributing mightily on this team who were picked outside the 1st round. This is a young team...so we don't have to have a ton of guys ready to step in since there aren't going to be that many spots open the next couple of years anyway. The team is in excellent shape...and I'm sure they'll continue to draft well, finding some gems in later rounds too.

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04-01-2012, 12:27 PM
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I have a feeling MZA will still be around.

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04-01-2012, 12:29 PM
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If the Rangers add Schultz this offseason and hang on to their first and second round picks this year they will be fine.

Adding Erixon and Schultz will be like having two extra first round picks. The Rangers draft pretty well in the second round as well as the later rounds. Callahan was a 4th round pick and Hagelin was a 5th.

May be the Rangers can keep stealing other teams top prospects each year when they don't want to sign with their respective teams lol.

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04-01-2012, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrAlmost View Post
I can usually count on you to tell us once a month how "bright the future looks". Why the sudden change? I'm sure we will be just fine, there are a lot of good prospects you just listed and players don't go from 23 to 30, so I'm sure that will be ample time to draft and sign new talent. This is a bit premature, and I'm not entirely sold that Zuke will be let go. They may bring him back next year, he looked good and the team likes players that know the system, and he does.

When I was talking about our future looking bright, I was right, correct? And when I said at the start of this season that the Rangers are vastly underrated, even by their own fans, that was correct as well... as was my prediction from the start of 2010-11 season that we'll be a borderline team.

I don't do cheerleading for no reason. I try to look at what we got. And what I see today is that the team is running out of prospects and our draft picks will be very late.

I have high hopes for St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth, hoping that at least one of them will be a 60+ point player. If not, we will be in a bit of trouble when Gaborik leaves in 2014.

Either way, we'll need to get people to replace Boyle, Rupp and Prust with entry level contracts. Next year, this trio will cost us $4.5- $5. To re-sign UFAs like Callahan and Girardi, we will need to find replacements for them to save a couple of million on our bottom line. I'm hoping that our replacements for this trio will still allow us to maintain quality depth.

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04-01-2012, 12:41 PM
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The price of success. I'll live with it.

Plus, our recent history of drafting is as good as any team in the league. Not much more you can ask for.

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04-01-2012, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UAGoalieGuy View Post
May be the Rangers can keep stealing other teams top prospects each year when they don't want to sign with their respective teams.

We can obviously hope for that, but it happened just once so far with Erixon who really wanted to play for the Rangers. The odds of that happening repeatedly aren't great. If we sign Schultz, I will be very happy. But what are the odds of that? Every single team in the NHL will try to sign him as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
And why is that? Look at how many guys we have contributing mightily on this team who were picked outside the 1st round. This is a young team...so we don't have to have a ton of guys ready to step in since there aren't going to be that many spots open the next couple of years anyway. The team is in excellent shape...and I'm sure they'll continue to draft well, finding some gems in later rounds too.
Granted, but the statistical odds of any given late pick becoming another Hagelin aren't great. You need a lot of late picks to score a few home runs. But with the Rangers being where they are, they will likely deal away a lot of their later picks as well.

Look at the Scott for #5 trade. We just gave away a #5 for a total BS player. Why? Because Slats knows that the odds of a #5 making it to the NHL are tiny, and this team needs help now, not hope later. I suspect we'll be trading away a lot of our later picks.


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The price of success. I'll live with it.
Instead of just living with the idea that we will eventually become bad, we should probably have a plan to avert that. This plan should include a lot more scouts to find undrafted gems, as well as going hard, very hard, after every guy like Schultz.

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04-01-2012, 01:07 PM
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Granted, but the statistical odds of any given late pick becoming another Hagelin aren't great. You need a lot of late picks to score a few home runs. But with the Rangers being where they are, they will likely deal away a lot of their later picks as well.

Look at the Scott for #5 trade. We just gave away a #5 for a total BS player. Why? Because Slats knows that the odds of a #5 making it to the NHL are tiny, and this team needs help now, not hope later. I suspect we'll be trading away a lot of our later picks.
But what about Stepan, Callahan, Dubinsky, etc.? Obviously picking 30th and 60th is a lot more challenging than picking 1st and 31st...but really when have we picked inside the top 10 anyway?

Yes, we gave away a #5 for no good reason. But we also added a #3, which has to be worth at least 2 or 3 times as much value wise. So we were actually sellers this deadline. And the reality is that if the Rangers see a guy on the board in the 5th round that they perceive as an excellent value they will do what they need to do to obtain the pick. It's not going to cost a lot, so there's really no reason to worry about being without a 5th rounder. Dealing 1st or 2nd rounders for rentals is entirely a different story.

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04-01-2012, 01:07 PM
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The Flyers have been trading away tons of draft picks but then they pick up a guy like Matt Read--college free agent. Prospect depth is great but there are different ways to be found getting youth into your lineup. Scouting doesn't stop the day after the draft and is not confined to future drafts.

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04-01-2012, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post

Instead of just living with the idea that we will eventually become bad, we should probably have a plan to avert that. This plan should include a lot more scouts to find undrafted gems, as well as going hard, very hard, after every guy like Schultz.
I don't know how you're drawing the inference from "the price of success" with "the idea that we will eventually become bad". That's not what I said. The Red Wings have been drafting low for years and have been one of the most successful franchises in the NHL. The Rangers have been drafting remarkably well over the last 6-7 years. It's possible to continue success without having top 10 draft picks. How many top 10's have the Jets had? The Panthers? We've got a good team in a place and a good organization for developing talent - particularly from 2nd round and beyond picks.

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04-01-2012, 06:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrAlmost View Post
I can usually count on you to tell us once a month how "bright the future looks". Why the sudden change? I'm sure we will be just fine, there are a lot of good prospects you just listed and players don't go from 23 to 30, so I'm sure that will be ample time to draft and sign new talent. This is a bit premature, and I'm not entirely sold that Zuke will be let go. They may bring him back next year, he looked good and the team likes players that know the system, and he does.
Nice response. Even a "glass half empty" fan like me has confidence in how our current regime will handle things going forward.

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04-01-2012, 06:59 PM
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like Tommy Grant has a chance to be an NHL player he should have been signed to an AHL contract like JAM.. doubt he makes the impact like someone like Read has...

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04-01-2012, 08:43 PM
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Opps wrong thread

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04-01-2012, 09:51 PM
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Where's Valentenko going?

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04-01-2012, 10:52 PM
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like Tommy Grant has a chance to be an NHL player he should have been signed to an AHL contract like JAM.. doubt he makes the impact like someone like Read has...

That was the point of the post: we will have to sign a whole lot of undrafted prospects to get one Girardi. 9 out of 10 of these prospects will turn into marginal AHLers. But if you take enough changes, you'll get yourself a Girardi.

And oh yeah, in case someone forgot where I stand on JAM, sign him now!

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04-01-2012, 10:54 PM
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Where's Valentenko going?

He should be going back to Russia. He'll make more money there and will be in a top league, instead of riding the bus in the AHL.

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04-02-2012, 12:11 AM
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If you are right then it means we didnt draft well enough. You have to eat that bullet theres no magic undrafted FA solution.

It's more to me that you seem to just be drastically undervalueing some and being overly dismissive of many prospects here. Especially Fasth and Miller. In reality if 3 or 4 of our current TOP prospects makes it it doesnt matter what happens to the rest so this idea of needing depth in a pipeline is dumb. No need for 8 or 9 career AHLers listed from 11-20

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04-02-2012, 01:16 AM
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7th youngest team in the league. Yes, successful prospects are contributing, they will be here for a while.

I see 4 or 5 additional NHLers (listed top 4) the next 2-3 years. I'm not worried. That seems solid to me.

What else would you expect?

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04-02-2012, 01:45 AM
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He should be going back to Russia. He'll make more money there and will be in a top league, instead of riding the bus in the AHL.
Got it - thanks. Is this just the common, consensus opinion regarding him? Or has he (or his rep) alluded to or stated as much?

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04-02-2012, 02:31 AM
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Got it - thanks. Is this just the common, consensus opinion regarding him? Or has he (or his rep) alluded to or stated as much?
The thinking (or over thinking) is that his contract is up. That he's down the depth chart a bit and that once upon a time when he was a Montreal prospect he left his AHL team and headed back to Russia--for a year or so--maybe part of the reason he was included in the Gomez deal. Personally I think he could catch on with some NHL team as a 6-7. He's a stay at home guy--with average speed and some physicality. Best +/- of our AHL defensemen.

Have to say that Bourque has had a very rough start to his pro career--rougher than Grant anyway though of course Grant is about 5 years older. Of those currently in the AHL only JAM (AHL contract), possibly Wellman, Yogan (just signed after finishing his OHL career) and Erixon are potential Rangers in the future.


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04-02-2012, 03:21 AM
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The thinking (or over thinking) is that his contract is up. That he's down the depth chart a bit and that once upon a time when he was a Montreal prospect he left his AHL team and headed back to Russia--for a year or so--maybe part of the reason he was included in the Gomez deal. Personally I think he could catch on with some NHL team as a 6-7. He's a stay at home guy--with average speed and some physicality. Best +/- of our AHL defensemen.

Have to say that Bourque has had a very rough start to his pro career--rougher than Grant anyway though of course Grant is about 5 years older. Of those currently in the AHL only JAM (AHL contract), possibly Wellman, Yogan (just signed after finishing his OHL career) and Erixon are potential Rangers in the future.
Awesome, thanks for the clarification. Figured he'd be a long shot to make the Blueshirts and stick, but didn't know if it was a definite he was gone again after the year. Again, thanks for the insight.

Though plus/minus is hardly a heavyweight barometer for determining a player's ability, nor is it anywhere close to a respectable metric to use for translation into the NHL game, it's pretty interesting to hear he has the best ranking of your AHL dmen.

Evidenced by the fact that he is so far down the chart, and that he did nothing to elevate himself, I'm wondering as an aside if he has looked....okay in HFDCT? Or, more aptly worded, has he looked bad?

Regarding the bolded, I, too, thought he could catch on the back end of a corps somewhere thin, but I haven't seen him play in a while, which is why I ask how he has looked. Ideal size, that's for sure...

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04-02-2012, 06:34 AM
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The Rangers will get #29 or #30 if they reach the Cup finals. The 4 conference finalists get picks #27-#30. If the Rangers fail to reach the conference finals,they will a pick in the #24/#25/#26 range depending upon the teams reaching the final 4 and where the Rangers end up in the final standings.

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