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Old
04-03-2012, 12:04 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
Just found out this morning that Cain is under .500 lifetime. For a guy that is 7 years into his career, making $22m per season he should be like .600+. Downright terrible. Even if he other numbers are well above average, wins are THE most important stat. I'd rather have a guy with a full run higher ERA who wins more games.
That makes absolutely no sense and is downright laughable. Just because the offense around him blows doesn't count against how good he pitches. Wins is a team stat, not an individual stat. People are starting to stop this old fashioned way of thinking and finally looking at the important stats (ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, etc.) to see how good a pitcher really is, not his win-loss record. The best example of that is King Felix winning the 2010 Cy Young at 13-12 because he was the best pitcher in every important category. A pitcher can only control what you give up, not what your team scores. There is so much luck on a year-to-year basis with wins that using it to rate a pitcher's quality is ridiculous.

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04-03-2012, 12:10 PM
  #77
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So you're saying you win games with whip, IP, k's? Oh ok. He DID give up 11 losses on the season last year. Are the losses his team's fault?

It's about what you do with what you're given. Your team gives you 3 in the first inning? Get the win by allowing 2 or less. You get nothing? You give up nothing. Averages of stats mean little to me. Wins aren't averaged. I always thought the idea was to Win the game, Win the LCS, Win the World Series. Not win the era title.


Pitching to get the important outs and keep leads is more important. I don't care if a guy wins 5-4 or 5-0. He still won. That said, I have no idea where Cain ranks on the run support list. My point is that SF is putting $22m per year into a #2 guy on their pitching staff when they need major help offensively. Spread the money and talent around. Cain is barely worth $11m a year to me.

I'd much rather have a TEAM of equally paid/performing players than a couple of stars with high salaries filled in with role players and rookies. Easier to plug in for injuries and down-years that way. If Cain becomes the next Zito, they're stuck in a huge hole.


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04-03-2012, 12:23 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
So you're saying you win games with whip, IP, k's? Oh ok.




Pitching to get the important outs and keep leads is more important. I don't care if a guy wins 5-4 or 5-0. He still won. That said, I have no idea where Cain ranks on the run support list. My point is that SF is putting $22m per year into a #2 guy on their pitching staff when they need major help offensively. Spread the money and talent around. Cain is barely worth $11m a year to me.

I'd much rather have a TEAM of equally paid/performing players than a couple of stars with high salaries filled in with role players and rookies. Easier to plug in for injuries and down-years that way. If Cain becomes the next Zito, they're stuck in a huge hole.
Actually, yes you do. The lower the ERA and WHIP, the better chance you have of winning the game. If a pitcher threw a shutout every game but their offense never scored, he wouldn't be the best in the league because he never won a game? Or your team is just making errors behind you? Extreme examples but it makes the point. If Felix played on the Yanks in 2010, he could have won 25 games. Instead he won 13. Basing a guy's ability on if his offense gives him a chance to win is terrible. Why should a guy who plays for the Yanks or Red Sox be given an unfair advantage in a comparison between a pitcher on say, Seattle or San Francisco?

Regardless, I agree that it's a pretty bad contract. If a team has a strong prospect pool, then having piles of stars is absolutely the best move as you'll have good talent coming up making pennies while under club control for 7 years and can afford to pay your stars. If your pool is weak, then you need a balance of players. As I said before, the Giants have a weakened prospect pool now so it makes less sense.

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04-03-2012, 12:26 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
Just found out this morning that Cain is under .500 lifetime. For a guy that is 7 years into his career, making $22m per season he should be like .600+. Downright terrible. Even if he other numbers are well above average, wins are THE most important stat. I'd rather have a guy with a full run higher ERA who wins more games.
LMAO judging a pitcher by his W/L his like judging a defenseman by his +/-. So Ricky Romero wasn't very good last year with a sub 3 era? Sorry dude but ERA is way more important than wins

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04-03-2012, 12:27 PM
  #80
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Found it.

(MLB AVERAGE: 6.06)
96; 4.30; Matt Cain, SF
99; 4.03; Tim Lincecum, SF

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/7...as-of-9-6-2011

That, to me, says give my team some offensive help, which help the other pitchers on his team get more wins as well. Just an all around bad choice to give this guy that much money. But what do I know(or you for that matter, this is all just our opinions)? We're not paid to run teams.

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04-03-2012, 12:28 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
So you're saying you win games with whip, IP, k's? Oh ok. He DID give up 11 losses on the season last year. Are the losses his team's fault?

It's about what you do with what you're given. Your team gives you 3 in the first inning? Get the win by allowing 2 or less. You get nothing? You give up nothing. Averages of stats mean little to me. Wins aren't averaged. I always thought the idea was to Win the game, Win the LCS, Win the World Series. Not win the era title.


Pitching to get the important outs and keep leads is more important. I don't care if a guy wins 5-4 or 5-0. He still won. That said, I have no idea where Cain ranks on the run support list. My point is that SF is putting $22m per year into a #2 guy on their pitching staff when they need major help offensively. Spread the money and talent around. Cain is barely worth $11m a year to me.

I'd much rather have a TEAM of equally paid/performing players than a couple of stars with high salaries filled in with role players and rookies. Easier to plug in for injuries and down-years that way. If Cain becomes the next Zito, they're stuck in a huge hole.
Some of them absolutely. You can't just absolve the offense and defense and hang it all to dry on the pitcher. Yes, the contract is horrible, I won't argue that.

But if I had a WHIP under one, an ERA under 3, and 9 or 10ks per outing while generally pitching into the 7th or 8th, you can be damn sure that a loss is more often than not on somebody else's shoulders that game 9 times out of 10.

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04-03-2012, 12:30 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thefifagod View Post
Actually, yes you do. The lower the ERA and WHIP, the better chance you have of winning the game. If a pitcher threw a shutout every game but their offense never scored, he wouldn't be the best in the league because he never won a game? Or your team is just making errors behind you? Extreme examples but it makes the point. If Felix played on the Yanks in 2010, he could have won 25 games. Instead he won 13. Basing a guy's ability on if his offense gives him a chance to win is terrible. Why should a guy who plays for the Yanks or Red Sox be given an unfair advantage in a comparison between a pitcher on say, Seattle or San Francisco?


Regardless, I agree that it's a pretty bad contract. If a team has a strong prospect pool, then having piles of stars is absolutely the best move as you'll have good talent coming up making pennies while under club control for 7 years and can afford to pay your stars. If your pool is weak, then you need a balance of players. As I said before, the Giants have a weakened prospect pool now so it makes less sense.

Hold on here. You're totally confusing what point I'm trying to make. I'm talking about running a team by giving money to the right players. Do I think he's a good player? Yes. But he's not worth that much. I'd rather pay a guy who goes 18-8 $22m per year, yes. That helps me get to the playoffs more than a guy who goes 13-11.

This isn't about Cain being a good player. It's about allocating the resources you have. Same reason I think Miller is overpaid at $6.3m per season.

The Giants aren't the Sox or Yankees. They can't afford this guy down the line when they have a terrible offense.

You'd prefer a guy with stats other than wins. I'd prefer wins. That's all we're disagreeing on.

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04-03-2012, 12:31 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuiltTagonTough View Post
Some of them absolutely. You can't just absolve the offense and defense and hang it all to dry on the pitcher. Yes, the contract is horrible, I won't argue that.

But if I had a WHIP under one, an ERA under 3, and 9 or 10ks per outing while generally pitching into the 7th or 8th, you can be damn sure that a loss is more often than not on somebody else's shoulders that game 9 times out of 10.
So as a GM, wouldn't you observe that your team's problems lie elsewhere on the team and try to improve THAT part of the team?

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04-03-2012, 12:36 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
So as a GM, wouldn't you observe that your team's problems lie elsewhere on the team and try to improve THAT part of the team?
yeah nobody is arguing that. We all agree it was a bad contract, but it doesn't change the fact a pitcher's performance lies in his ERA, WHIP and FIPx. If a pitcher is putting up great numbers in those categories but not getting the wins that means its a problem elsewhere, not with the pitcher. Such as the bullpen or offence

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04-03-2012, 12:38 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
So as a GM, wouldn't you observe that your team's problems lie elsewhere on the team and try to improve THAT part of the team?
Absolutely I would.

But looking at a pitcher in a vacuum, a better win loss ratio < jaw dropping ERA, WHIP, etc.

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04-03-2012, 12:39 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuiltTagonTough View Post
Absolutely I would.

But looking at a pitcher in a vacuum, a better win loss ratio < jaw dropping ERA, WHIP, etc.
To some. To others, no. We're both right and we're both wrong. Just depends on your perspective.

And looking at a pitcher in a vacuum and paying him accordingly is a moronic thing to do. That's what agents WANT you to do.

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04-03-2012, 12:51 PM
  #87
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Not sure how many here are Jays fans but Cecil to AA? WOW.

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04-03-2012, 01:13 PM
  #88
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It could also bite them long term. I mean, what is Lincecum going to ask for now, 10/300? Bumgarner in a few years, who has undeniably more talent than Cain? I mean, good for the Giants if they are putting more money into the team but a team spending 118 million (last year's payroll) should not spend almost 20% on Matt Cain. Granted Zito's contract is up soon but their prospect pool is weakened by trades (like Wheeler for Beltran, fail) or the graduation of guys like Posey, Bumgarner and Belt. Like I said before, he's not a top 15 pitcher in the league and he's getting paid as more than that. The team has a downright embarrassing lineup which could use an infusion of talent. Then again, they had a terrible lineup when they won the WS 2 years ago with a bunch of randoms getting hot like Cody Ross so maybe they think they can do it again. They certainly have a rock-solid 1-2-3 punch. I see them finishing 2nd in the division behind the DBacks this year but wouldn't be surprised if they finished 1st or 3rd.
I understand all of that. As I said, I get both sides of the argument. Back ends of pitchers' contracts are always the question mark, but they're a necessary evil if you want to sign the guy. They're trying to win with pitching and hoping the return of Posey and the full-time play of Belt will make the offense good enough to get them to the playoffs.

I think this brings up the debate of whether you pay big bucks for consistency, or pay it for upside. In all likelihood, Bumgarner is going to be extremely good, but there are no guarantees in pitching: Mark Prior was considered one of the biggest can't-miss pitching prospects of my generation, and that didn't turn out well. If you think Cain can continue to give you 200+ innings and put up the other numbers that he does, I don't think you have much of an issue paying him this money. I think the Lincecum market is completely independent of Cain's, as he's in another stratosphere.

As a sidenote, I'm a Mets fan ( ) and the Wheeler-for-Beltran deal is one of the few things I've been able to feel good about in the last few years.

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04-03-2012, 03:14 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by enrothorne View Post
Hold on here. You're totally confusing what point I'm trying to make. I'm talking about running a team by giving money to the right players. Do I think he's a good player? Yes. But he's not worth that much. I'd rather pay a guy who goes 18-8 $22m per year, yes. That helps me get to the playoffs more than a guy who goes 13-11.

This isn't about Cain being a good player. It's about allocating the resources you have. Same reason I think Miller is overpaid at $6.3m per season.

The Giants aren't the Sox or Yankees. They can't afford this guy down the line when they have a terrible offense.

You'd prefer a guy with stats other than wins. I'd prefer wins. That's all we're disagreeing on.
Your exact statement was "wins are the most important stat" and that's what I argued. It probably doesn't crack the top 10 in important stats for pitchers when you look at sabrmetrics. ERA, WHIP, QS, FIP, xFIP, WAR, WPA, RAR, ERA+ all are better indicators and that's off the top of my head, and 6 of those (ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts,WAR, ERA+, FIP) are all relatively mainstream now. I can explain how each of those are better if you want.

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04-03-2012, 03:16 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I understand all of that. As I said, I get both sides of the argument. Back ends of pitchers' contracts are always the question mark, but they're a necessary evil if you want to sign the guy. They're trying to win with pitching and hoping the return of Posey and the full-time play of Belt will make the offense good enough to get them to the playoffs.

I think this brings up the debate of whether you pay big bucks for consistency, or pay it for upside. In all likelihood, Bumgarner is going to be extremely good, but there are no guarantees in pitching: Mark Prior was considered one of the biggest can't-miss pitching prospects of my generation, and that didn't turn out well. If you think Cain can continue to give you 200+ innings and put up the other numbers that he does, I don't think you have much of an issue paying him this money. I think the Lincecum market is completely independent of Cain's, as he's in another stratosphere.

As a sidenote, I'm a Mets fan ( ) and the Wheeler-for-Beltran deal is one of the few things I've been able to feel good about in the last few years.
Right, I get it too, just a poor allocation of money imo. The Giants are idiots; I bet you they don't play Belt full-time again. He's so much better than their alternatives but struggles to get playing time for them. But don't worry, keep trotting Aubrey Huff and the like out there over Belt.

Sorry about that, the organization is in shambles and being a Braves fan I love it. But yes, getting Wheeler was great for them.

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04-03-2012, 03:39 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thefifagod View Post
Your exact statement was "wins are the most important stat" and that's what I argued. It probably doesn't crack the top 10 in important stats for pitchers when you look at sabrmetrics. ERA, WHIP, QS, FIP, xFIP, WAR, WPA, RAR, ERA+ all are better indicators and that's off the top of my head, and 6 of those (ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts,WAR, ERA+, FIP) are all relatively mainstream now. I can explain how each of those are better if you want.
And I will stand by that every day of the week. But that's not my issue with Cain. He's an above average pitcher who doesn't have the stellar win-loss record you'd expect from that salary. He has great secondary stats. Secondary. Win-loss is always the ultimate stat. Pay him less. I'd pay that much for Wins. You're talking new school. I'm preaching old school.
Every manager who has ever been fired would prefer Wins over stats.

Simply put: would you rather have a team that wins or a team with great stats?

I truly do understand what you're saying. And why. I just disagree in this context that it matters for the SanFrancisco Giants and that contract. Hopefully you understand my position as well. This is a discussion that has been raging on in baseball for a decade+ now. You and I aren't going to solve it. Please don't talk down to me though("I can explain how each of those are better if you want.") We disagree and that's obvious. As I said before, we're both right and both wrong.


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04-03-2012, 04:10 PM
  #92
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To some. To others, no. We're both right and we're both wrong. Just depends on your perspective.

And looking at a pitcher in a vacuum and paying him accordingly is a moronic thing to do. That's what agents WANT you to do.
As is looking at his win loss ratio as a driving factor. That's what the agent of a high win, high ERA pitcher on a high offense team wants you to do.

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04-03-2012, 04:19 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuiltTagonTough View Post
As is looking at his win loss ratio as a driving factor. That's what the agent of a high win, high ERA pitcher on a high offense team wants you to do.
I can accept that. Never said I'd go out and offer $22m per year for it but I'd choose the pitcher with wins over stats if I had to give out that contract.

Personally, as I've stated, I think only a very few players in the game are worth more than ~$15m per season. I'm talking like 10ish tops. Baseball payrolls are WAY out of hand.

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04-03-2012, 04:24 PM
  #94
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Guess we'll have to end this debate because I don't agree that we're both right and we're both wrong as it's become widely accepted in the baseball community that wins are secondary (or Felix would have never won that Cy Young) and are nowhere near the most important stat. I'd rather have the team that puts up good stats because they'll consistently win in the long run, not get lucky and get more wins a small percentage of the time. Wins is a joke stat, plain and simple.

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04-03-2012, 04:27 PM
  #95
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So you have to prove you're right to participate in a discussion? Wow.

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04-03-2012, 04:29 PM
  #96
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And I will stand by that every day of the week. But that's not my issue with Cain. He's an above average pitcher who doesn't have the stellar win-loss record you'd expect from that salary. He has great secondary stats. Secondary. Win-loss is always the ultimate stat. Pay him less. I'd pay that much for Wins. You're talking new school. I'm preaching old school.
Every manager who has ever been fired would prefer Wins over stats.

Simply put: would you rather have a team that wins or a team with great stats?

I truly do understand what you're saying. And why. I just disagree in this context that it matters for the SanFrancisco Giants and that contract. Hopefully you understand my position as well. This is a discussion that has been raging on in baseball for a decade+ now. You and I aren't going to solve it. Please don't talk down to me though("I can explain how each of those are better if you want.") We disagree and that's obvious. As I said before, we're both right and both wrong.
It's not Cain's fault that the Giants can't hit. He's a premier pitcher on a team with a subpar offense. Win-loss record for pitchers is absolutely meaningless.

Edit: I like the cut of fifagod's jib.


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04-03-2012, 09:11 PM
  #97
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It's pretty clear everybody is one side of the argument and one person isn't. Fifagod wins, there is no you're both right and both wrong. Brett Cecil went 15-7 2 years ago and now is in AA. Why? his ERA was mid 4, and was never able to get it below the 4 mark.

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04-03-2012, 09:39 PM
  #98
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You cant call an opinion fact. Thats not how life works.

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04-03-2012, 09:49 PM
  #99
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I can accept that. Never said I'd go out and offer $22m per year for it but I'd choose the pitcher with wins over stats if I had to give out that contract.

Personally, as I've stated, I think only a very few players in the game are worth more than ~$15m per season. I'm talking like 10ish tops. Baseball payrolls are WAY out of hand.
I can go with that. I'd still pay for stats over wins, but different teams, different styles.

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04-04-2012, 06:06 PM
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Marlins bring Ali out there with Loria so no one boos Loria. Smart.

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