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Rangers will be getting more Tommy Grants and Zuccarellos

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Old
04-02-2012, 07:37 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Awesome, thanks for the clarification. Figured he'd be a long shot to make the Blueshirts and stick, but didn't know if it was a definite he was gone again after the year. Again, thanks for the insight.

Though plus/minus is hardly a heavyweight barometer for determining a player's ability, nor is it anywhere close to a respectable metric to use for translation into the NHL game, it's pretty interesting to hear he has the best ranking of your AHL dmen.

Evidenced by the fact that he is so far down the chart, and that he did nothing to elevate himself, I'm wondering as an aside if he has looked....okay in HFDCT? Or, more aptly worded, has he looked bad?

Regarding the bolded, I, too, thought he could catch on the back end of a corps somewhere thin, but I haven't seen him play in a while, which is why I ask how he has looked. Ideal size, that's for sure...
The Rangers had a ton of injuries on D. Valentenko was never a consideration to be brought up. Staal was out with the concussion and the Rangers claimed Jeff Woywitka off of waivers rather than go with Valentenko. Foot speed is an issue for Valentenko.

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04-02-2012, 08:43 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
I have a strong suspicion that we will be getting more Zuccarellos and Tommy Grants in the coming years. At least I hope so.


Our team has been built through the draft in the recent years. Unfortunately, that may come to an end very soon. Our prospect corps are already thinning. We have quality prospects on top, but we don't have the depth we had before.

With guys like Hagelin, Erixon and maybe Kreider graduating by the end of next year, and other prospects like Zuccarello and Valentenko likely leaving, the quality of our prospect corp will be hit badly.

3 of the top 4, and 5 of the top 15 prospects in our prospect poll will probably not be our prospects a year from now, replaced by a pair of second-tier prospects drafted at #30 and #60. And that's not counting for the possibility of us trading away prospects to improve the team.

This is approximately how I expect our top-dozen prospects to look:


1. C J.T. Miller
2. D Dylan McIlrath
3. C Michael St. Croix
4. RW Christian Thomas
5. RW Jesper Fasth
6. 2012 First Rounder
7. C Andrew Yogan
8. 2012 Second Rounder
9. C Steven Fogarty
10. C Oscar Lindberg
11. RW Shane McColgan
12. LW Ryan Bourque

The rest of the prospects are not really worth discussing right now because they are too marginal. But even the above list is not too impressive.

- St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth: all high-risk.
- Yogan, Fogarty, Lindberg, McColgan, Bourque: potential limited to the bottom-6.
- Even Miller and McIlrath don't have game-breaker potential. They will most likely be average to above-average NHLers, not stars.


Now I get that people will say, "if you have all your prospects already in the NHL, then what's the problem?"

There are 2 problems. First, any young for age trade to acquire a scorer would decimate our farm and leave it nearly empty considering how few prospects we have. In the current position, we can't pull a trade for a good player in his prime because it would leave us without good prospects.

The second problem is the salary cap. We can't afford to carry highly-paid players like Richards and Gaborik unless we have a constant flow of young players with cheap contracts.

A team can normally do this through the draft. However, I expect that the Rangers will be a very good team in the next few years, at least until the end of Gaborik's contract, so our 2012, 2013 and 2014 draft positions will be very late.

This year we will get either #29 or #30. The odds of getting even a marginal NHL player at this position are against us.

Even in strong drafts like 1990, 1997 and 2003, draft picks at 29-30 failed to make the NHL. Of the 20 players drafted at 29 and 30 in the 1990s, only 5 played 400+ games (5 seasons of 80 games), and the best of them were Jonathan Cheechoo and Sandis Ozolinsh, not exactly Hall of Famers. (The others were Jassen Cullimore, Stan Neckar, Deron Quint.)

I just don't see us being able to consistently place 1-3 prospects a year into our lineup with late draft picks.

Another way for people to acquire prospects is to trade away vets for youth, as we did when we dealt Gomez for McDonagh. But again, this will not be something we'll be doing in the near future, barring some sort of a team collapse. If anything, we will be doing the reverse: trading away youth to get veterans.


So what's left? The only option on the table is to acquire young players who may not have been drafted, but then blossomed, or to acquire reclamation projects.

In both cases, most will be failures. For every Girardi, there will be 5 Tommy Grants. Most reclamation projects will be failures as well.

But we have no other choice. We will need to fill up our prospect corps and unless we do that, our team may be in trouble when Gaborik's contract ends, and a bunch of our young players will need large pay raises around the same time.
so trade the 30th overall and a player or prospect and move up ,problems solved..... Id move the first forsomeones 2nd and 3rd. Iwnd up with 2 seconds and 2 3rds i guess..i dont even know nor have i looked at the picks we have this upcoming draft.

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04-02-2012, 11:14 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
The Rangers had a ton of injuries on D. Valentenko was never a consideration to be brought up. Staal was out with the concussion and the Rangers claimed Jeff Woywitka off of waivers rather than go with Valentenko. Foot speed is an issue for Valentenko.
Yeah--but weren't they a bit pissed off with him for a pre-season game he played with some injury he didn't tell anyone about?

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04-02-2012, 11:19 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Awesome, thanks for the clarification. Figured he'd be a long shot to make the Blueshirts and stick, but didn't know if it was a definite he was gone again after the year. Again, thanks for the insight.

Though plus/minus is hardly a heavyweight barometer for determining a player's ability, nor is it anywhere close to a respectable metric to use for translation into the NHL game, it's pretty interesting to hear he has the best ranking of your AHL dmen.

Evidenced by the fact that he is so far down the chart, and that he did nothing to elevate himself, I'm wondering as an aside if he has looked....okay in HFDCT? Or, more aptly worded, has he looked bad?

Regarding the bolded, I, too, thought he could catch on the back end of a corps somewhere thin, but I haven't seen him play in a while, which is why I ask how he has looked. Ideal size, that's for sure...
A +9 when practically all the other defensemen are minus. Erixon is a +3--Parlett who is now in the ECHL is +3 and Bickel who's been up with the Rangers since November is a +4.

Valentenko is between a rock and a hard place in the Rangers organization. Erixon and McIlrath are the top two prospects. Bickel has been on the Rangers the balance on the season. No openings for him here.

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04-02-2012, 11:54 AM
  #30
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Tommy Grant ****in sucks.

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04-02-2012, 12:05 PM
  #31
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this isn't such a problem because of what we have in our NHL, if our team was getting old and we had these prospects i'd be concerned, but we have a good 5 years before we have to start worrying about any of our skill players deteriorating. we'll continue drafting well and having a really good NHL team for a few years at least. i think this team has a very big window with some top prospects coming up.

i think prospects people are down on are audy-marchessault and shane mccolgan. JAM has been our best goal scorer in CT and i think the rangers can get a deal done with him and he can play a really good two-way game. he's a defensive minded forward with huge scoring potential as well. he's a little small but within the next 2 years i see him putting on the muscle. mccolgan is going through his worst season in junior hockey right now, but i see him rebounding. he's exactly the kind of player we all like. two-way game with some scoring ability.

i could see a scoring third line that includes both JAM and shane mccolgan in 3 years.

and don't forget that we DO still have tim erixon and dylan mcilrath, both projected to be at LEAST 2nd pairing defensemen, on top of guys like jt miller who should be a very good forward when all is said and done

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04-02-2012, 12:08 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by JayQueensNY88 View Post
so trade the 30th overall and a player or prospect and move up, problems solved....
It would be impossible for us to move into a territory where we can get a top prospect for a #25-#30 and some throw-ins. We would need to give up something more valuable our first.

It would be our first plus Miller plus another asset like Fogarty or Yogan to get into the top-12 of this draft, and even then, we would have a hard time finding takers.

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04-02-2012, 01:07 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
It would be impossible for us to move into a territory where we can get a top prospect for a #25-#30 and some throw-ins. We would need to give up something more valuable our first.

It would be our first plus Miller plus another asset like Fogarty or Yogan to get into the top-12 of this draft, and even then, we would have a hard time finding takers.
We don't need to move up. We can continue to find solid contributors at the end of the first round and in the second. Sure, they won't be elite offensive forces, but they can be every day players. We can keep adding the top line talent via UFA or trades to compliment the core. The plan is working quite nicely.

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04-02-2012, 01:52 PM
  #34
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In the past few years the Rangers have added a decent number of younger players or drafted prospects to their roster. Any time you can draft and develop a Callahan, Staal, Stepan and Del Zotto and follow that up by acquiring a Girardi, Boyle, Zuccarello and Prust your gonna be OK.

....and that's not even a full list.

It's a natural time for the system to reset itself and give the guys that are NHL ready a chance to battle it out. As some one else pointed out, price of success.

The benefit of having such a successful player development system is that newer cusp players like Kreider, Fasth, Miller and McIlrath will get more time to learn and adjust to the teams identity and style.

The Rangers are in a great position moving forward.

I'm looking forward to seeing the gems that Clark and Gorton pull from the later picks and rounds.

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04-02-2012, 02:12 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
We don't need to move up. We can continue to find solid contributors at the end of the first round and in the second. Sure, they won't be elite offensive forces, but they can be every day players. We can keep adding the top line talent via UFA or trades to compliment the core. The plan is working quite nicely.

Maybe, maybe not. About 70% of the players drafted at the end of the first round turn into nothing. They are more likely to play in the ECHL than the NHL, believe it or not (though the AHL is the most likely future for them).

Personally, I would swing for the fences. Draft someone like Christian Thomas who will either be a very good top-6 player or a dud.

Between Yogan, Fogarty, McColgan, Lindberg and Bourque, we have enough prospects with bottom-6 potential, not to mention guys like Anisimov, Boyle, Prust who are already in the NHL. Even J.T. Miller is just as likely to play on the third line as on the second.

Getting another kid like Thomas could potentially do a lot more for the franchise than getting a slightly better version of Yogan. My ultimate scenario is to trade down and get two picks, using one on a kid like Thomas and another on a kid like Yogan. It would allow us to have both a high-risk, high-return small guy, and a big guy with a decent chance to help our bottom-6.

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04-02-2012, 04:58 PM
  #36
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On this year's AHL roster, here is the list of prospects with (possible) NHL potential:

1. Tim Erixon (D)
2. Jonathan Audy-Marchessault (C)

End. Count 'em. TWO. 2.
http://www.ctwhale.com/team/roster/

Edit: There will be peace in the middle east before Ryan Bourque makes the NHL. I've seen about 75% of all Whale games this year. Saying his play is brutal, is an understatement.

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04-02-2012, 05:45 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Osminator View Post
On this year's AHL roster, here is the list of prospects with (possible) NHL potential:

1. Tim Erixon (D)
2. Jonathan Audy-Marchessault (C)

End. Count 'em. TWO. 2

That seems about right. Others like Newbury, Deveaux, Thuresson, Bell, Vally, etc could potentially get into a few games when injuries hit, but I don't see any of them winning a permanent spot. Even if they somehow do, it will be on a bottom-feeding team as fill-ins, with all the fans whining that these guys have a regular spot.

Erixon and JAM are the only ones worth following in Hartford.

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04-02-2012, 07:08 PM
  #38
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Rangers current roster is filled with players in their early to mid 20s. MDZ, Hagelin, Stepan, McDonagh, etc. Considering any solid NHLer has a good 10 years of game in him, I'm not worried about our inability to continually add at the rate they have which has been about 2 solid rookies a year.

Even at that, many of their picks have come in the 2nd round or after. Consider this and that they've already been picking 10-20 1st rounders and easily become one of the top prospect pools in the league, Del Zotto and Kreider going 20 and 19 respectively. I'm not worried about where they're picking as it's become obvious that the Rangers scouting is superb, thanks large to Gordie Clark, and their development process is 2nd to none, Shoeny, Traverse city, etc. has improved it by leaps and bounds.

If the Rangers are able to retain their current players and only add 1 solid rookie a year, half of what they've been, we'll still have a full and competitive roster. This year Fedotenko leaves in come Kreider. At the end of next year everyone is either signed or an RFA so no one is going anywhere, yet we add 1 solid rookie. End of the following year, you have to worry about core players Callahan, Gaborik, and Girardi. Add a rookie and hope at least one of them resigns and you're still good. More likely is Girardi is dealt as McIlrath enters during the year. Moving Girardi for a solid prospect and maybe you get 2 solid rookies in a year or two.

Because of the Rangers current youth, currently the 4th youngest team in the league at an average age of 25, they are already poised to be in a good position for a long time, even if the number of solid prospects reaching the NHL diminishes.

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04-02-2012, 09:10 PM
  #39
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People said the same thing in 2009 when Dubinsky, Dawes, Callahan, Staal and Korpedo were all regulars, Montoya was traded and Cherapanov passed.

We were left with AA, Sauer and Sangs in Hartford, with MDZ and Gilroy on the way. People made fun of the Stepan pick because he said he liked tap dancing or high school musical or something. The rest of Hartford were 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Greg Moore and Byers and PAPsmear with no real shot of sticking with the team.

Rangers will be fine. The deeper they go this year, the higher their players will be valued.

Thomas, Kreider, Miller, Fasth, MSC, Fogarty, Yogan, McColgan -- my money says two of those guys develop into top-6 25-plus scorers.

McIlrath and Erixon are high-end prospects. The youth on the NHL blue line makes the development process easy.

Rangers own the best record in hockey and have a top-10-15 prospect pool. They'll be fine.

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04-02-2012, 10:55 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by German Way of War View Post
People said the same thing in 2009 when Dubinsky, Dawes, Callahan, Staal and Korpedo were all regulars, Montoya was traded and Cherapanov passed.

We were left with AA, Sauer and Sangs in Hartford, with MDZ and Gilroy on the way. People made fun of the Stepan pick because he said he liked tap dancing or high school musical or something. The rest of Hartford were 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Greg Moore and Byers and PAPsmear with no real shot of sticking with the team.

Rangers will be fine. The deeper they go this year, the higher their players will be valued.

Thomas, Kreider, Miller, Fasth, MSC, Fogarty, Yogan, McColgan -- my money says two of those guys develop into top-6 25-plus scorers.

McIlrath and Erixon are high-end prospects. The youth on the NHL blue line makes the development process easy.

Rangers own the best record in hockey and have a top-10-15 prospect pool. They'll be fine.
Yep. At least for the next few years, we're going to be very Red Wings-esque. Incredibly competitive team while effectively pumping in and developing youth.

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04-02-2012, 10:57 PM
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Rangers own the best record in hockey and have a top-10-15 prospect pool. They'll be fine.

If they sign JAM, I could see them being ranked around #10-12. If not, their farm is about average, in the 13-16 range.

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04-03-2012, 09:26 AM
  #42
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What people have to realize is that the Rangers have some higher profile prospects not playing in the AHL. The reason for this void is because in 2008, the Rangers drafted MDZ and Stepan who are both in the NHL. Grachev and Kundratek were traded (both 3rd rounders), Doyle and Gaulton were not signed.

Kreider is in the NCAA. Werek was traded for Lindberg who is playing in Sweden. Bourque is playing in the AHL but looks bad. Fasth looks to be a steal but is playing in Sweden still. Jason Wilson is in the ECHL. McNaught had injury problems.

McIlrath, Thomas and Yogan will all be there soon adding (3) quality prospects to JAM and Erixon.

People also have to realize that MZA, Bickel and Mitchell were all in the AHL this season.

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04-03-2012, 09:54 AM
  #43
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If JAM is not on a two-way contract, why do we assume he is NHL material? I've heard he's small, slow and only good at passing. There are 10,000 AHLers that are very good but could never cut it in the NHL... See Ryan Smyth, Layne Ulmer, Barrett Heisten, Jason LaBarbara, Jason Krog, Johan Witehall, etc..

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04-03-2012, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Yep. At least for the next few years, we're going to be very Red Wings-esque. Incredibly competitive team while effectively pumping in and developing youth.
Gordie Clark has NA covered with incredible prospect knowledge. His ability to pick in the rounds 2-5 is unmatched.

Håkan Andersson covers Europe like no one else, especially the Nordic Countries. He completely owns the bottom half of the draft.

If one team were to have them both they'd be unstoppable.

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04-03-2012, 02:03 PM
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When I was talking about our future looking bright, I was right, correct? And when I said at the start of this season that the Rangers are vastly underrated, even by their own fans, that was correct as well... as was my prediction from the start of 2010-11 season that we'll be a borderline team.

I don't do cheerleading for no reason. I try to look at what we got. And what I see today is that the team is running out of prospects and our draft picks will be very late.

I have high hopes for St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth, hoping that at least one of them will be a 60+ point player. If not, we will be in a bit of trouble when Gaborik leaves in 2014.

Either way, we'll need to get people to replace Boyle, Rupp and Prust with entry level contracts. Next year, this trio will cost us $4.5- $5. To re-sign UFAs like Callahan and Girardi, we will need to find replacements for them to save a couple of million on our bottom line. I'm hoping that our replacements for this trio will still allow us to maintain quality depth.
And that is the reason I don`t get why NYR are willing to burn a hole year of ELC money for Kreider.
I believe he will need some seasoning as a pro,before he can be a force in the PO.

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04-03-2012, 02:17 PM
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And that is the reason I don`t get why NYR are willing to burn a hole year of ELC money for Kreider.
I believe he will need some seasoning as a pro,before he can be a force in the PO.
They are likely willing to burn off a year on his ELC because we have zero depth heading into the playoffs.

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04-03-2012, 02:22 PM
  #47
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When I was talking about our future looking bright, I was right, correct? And when I said at the start of this season that the Rangers are vastly underrated, even by their own fans, that was correct as well... as was my prediction from the start of 2010-11 season that we'll be a borderline team.
Our future (and present) was and is only as bright as our ability to land the only top line playmaking center that was or will be available in the near future VIA free agency. I'm not sure how you were right about the Rangers being vastly underrated. Most of us had the Rangers finishing 4th-5th in the East, which is exactly where they would have finished if Sidney Crosby had played most of the season.

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I don't do cheerleading for no reason. I try to look at what we got. And what I see today is that the team is running out of prospects and our draft picks will be very late.
And? This is a cyclical league. That happens to everyone. That's generally a good thing, because it means you've managed to sustain regular season success (which tends to lead to at least some amount of post-season success, in most cases) for several years. Even the Red Wings are still benefitting from an era bygone where they were scouting Russia and Sweden at a depth that few other teams in the league were. Those days are mostly over, and as you see, they haven't been producing the kind of star players from their prospect ranks over the last few years. Yet they've done a good job of finding nice role players and complimentary players.

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I have high hopes for St. Croix, Thomas and Fasth, hoping that at least one of them will be a 60+ point player. If not, we will be in a bit of trouble when Gaborik leaves in 2014.
Being very high on Fasth, I don't think that will be a problem. But you don't know what's going to happen between now and then. There is going to be some kind of relatively major deal, likely for a scorer on the wing, eventually, and that will go a long way in determining what happens with Gaborik and the scoring situation going forward.

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Either way, we'll need to get people to replace Boyle, Rupp and Prust with entry level contracts. Next year, this trio will cost us $4.5- $5. To re-sign UFAs like Callahan and Girardi, we will need to find replacements for them to save a couple of million on our bottom line. I'm hoping that our replacements for this trio will still allow us to maintain quality depth.
I know people here love Prust and Boyle, but replacing players like them is not very difficult. They're solid 4th line players, just like the solid 4th line players on a lot of other teams. And it's highly unlikely this team will be able to keep all of these defensemen. One of them is going to have to go eventually.

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04-03-2012, 03:46 PM
  #48
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I'm not sure how you were right about the Rangers being vastly underrated. Most of us had the Rangers finishing 4th-5th in the East, which is exactly where they would have finished if Sidney Crosby had played most of the season.

1. I am not so sure you are right about the Pens beating out the Rangers because of Crosby.

2. Even if that were true, we would still have the second-best record in the NHL right now. If the season ended today, we would get the President's Trophy. Let's say we had the second-best record in the NHL or even the 5th best. That's still significantly better than what people here predicted.

3. The people predicting the 4-5 spot were the more optimistic ones. There were plenty of people saying 6-8 spot, and some saying 7-9 spot. Pretty much nobody said we'd even compete for the top spot in the East, much less the NHL.

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04-03-2012, 03:51 PM
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If JAM is not on a two-way contract, why do we assume he is NHL material?

Because he rejected a two-way NHL contract last year to prove what he can do in the AHL so that he would get a better contract. His performance this year showed that he deserves more than what people offered him last summer.

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04-04-2012, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by petejudge View Post
this isn't such a problem because of what we have in our NHL, if our team was getting old and we had these prospects i'd be concerned, but we have a good 5 years before we have to start worrying about any of our skill players deteriorating. we'll continue drafting well and having a really good NHL team for a few years at least. i think this team has a very big window with some top prospects coming up.

i think prospects people are down on are audy-marchessault and shane mccolgan. JAM has been our best goal scorer in CT and i think the rangers can get a deal done with him and he can play a really good two-way game. he's a defensive minded forward with huge scoring potential as well. he's a little small but within the next 2 years i see him putting on the muscle. mccolgan is going through his worst season in junior hockey right now, but i see him rebounding. he's exactly the kind of player we all like. two-way game with some scoring ability.

couild see a scoring third line that includes both JAM and shane mccolgan in 3 years.

and don't forget that we DO still have tim erixon and dylan mcilrath, both projected to be at LEAST 2nd pairing defensemen, on top of guys like jt miller who should be a very good forward when all is said and done
And put MZA on that line and we'll call them the' 5'8" line'.

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