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The Oilers --- even-strength and special teams

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Old
11-18-2003, 07:57 AM
  #1
igor*
 
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The Oilers --- even-strength and special teams

Its probably a bit early to be looking at this sort of thing, but I will anyways

To my eye, the Oilers have been outchancing other teams at 5 on 5 by a good margin. And they have been downright impressive at 4 on 4 this year.

For the West --- here are the goals-per-game at even-strength, and the goals-against rate too.


GF/game GA/game

VAN 2.2 1.4
EDM 2.1 1.6
COL 1.9 1.8
PHX 1.8 1.8
L.A 1.7 1.1
S.J 1.6 1.8
NSH 1.6 1.8
STL 1.5 1.1
DET 1.5 1.8
DAL 1.5 1.9
MIN 1.4 1.7
ANA 1.3 1.9
CGY 1.2 1.4
CHI 1.2 1.4
CBJ 1.0 1.9


.

In spite of some sketchy goaltending at times ... the Oilers have average defensive numbers at even-strength play too. Mostly because they've done pretty well at keeping the puck in the offensive end a lot IMO.

And the even-strength offensive numbers are damn impressive.

AND if you picked the three guys off the current roster who have done the best at outscoring the opposition over the past 3 years ... Smyth, Horcoff and Laraque ... all are off to bad starts, all will improve in this regard.

AND the PK, as terrible as it has looked for at least a couple of years, has been better than average every year when you factor in the SH markers. In fact ... when you factor in the SH goals the Oilers have scored ... its not too far off the league average even now. If you can fault the goaltending for even one bad PP goal against every 5 games or so this year ... the Oilers PK would actually be above average in the NHL in terms of results. I'm not kidding.
(BTW: I sat directly behind the goal in the STL ... and there were two terrible STL PP goals in that game alone).

BUT - the powerplay is just woeful. When you deduct the SH goals against from the PP goals scored ... an appalling Net 6.8% efficiency . A few teams have flirted with type of PP ineptness over a whole season. Minny is the worst ever I think, at Net 6.5% two or three years ago. So even though it is early ... when your powerplay is going at a clip that threatens to set the new historical benchmark for crappiness ... its just not good.

.

My point --- The Oilers have been one of the better (top ten at least) 5 on 5 teams in the league for a few years. Their PK has been, on the whole, a bit better than average for a few years. Their PP ... the less said the better. If Oates can make it better, hell even make it average, this Oilers team will win a lot more games.

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11-18-2003, 10:19 AM
  #2
Funkymoses
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
My point --- The Oilers have been one of the better (top ten at least) 5 on 5 teams in the league for a few years. Their PK has been, on the whole, a bit better than average for a few years. Their PP ... the less said the better. If Oates can make it better, hell even make it average, this Oilers team will win a lot more games.
I was wondering if you could make some projections as to Oates' effectiveness at bringing up that PP conversion rate... do you have access to stats that show the historical rate of PP% of Oates' teams, with Oates both on and off the ice?

And have the Oilers played a soft schedule to this point that would make those numbers less reliable?

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11-18-2003, 11:03 AM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funkymoses
... do you have access to stats that show the historical rate of PP% of Oates' teams, with Oates both on and off the ice?
Nope. Though it would be cool information to have. Powerplays are funny beasts though, and streaky. Hard to say how well he will work as a PP guy here ... though I find it hard to imagine that he won't help it quite a bit.

And Digger scraped together some good stats on Oates in this thread:
link: http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t...c21edfb682191e

Quote:
And have the Oilers played a soft schedule to this point that would make those numbers less reliable?
Not to my mind anyways. And not according to the Sagarin rankings either. 9th toughest schedule in the league so far, 3rd toughest in the west by their math.
link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nhl0304.htm

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11-18-2003, 12:38 PM
  #4
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5 on 5 play certainly is one of the Oilers strengths as they like to attack on the rush with their speed. Maybe it's just me but I seem to recall 4 on 4 play was a weakness in recent years for the Oilers.

The Oilers' pk is hurting us. Every forward/dman jumps into the rush when they can. While that has lead to our shorthanded markers, it has also lead to quite a few odd man rushes in the other direction. I remember one play where every single player jumped up into the rush on the pk leading to a breakaway the other way.

It's strange to see such an aggressive forecheck on the puck while on the pk outside their own zone and such a passive box while inside it. Weird.

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Old
11-18-2003, 02:34 PM
  #5
OYLer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Not to my mind anyways. And not according to the Sagarin rankings either. 9th toughest schedule in the league so far, 3rd toughest in the west by their math.
link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nhl0304.htm
Holy molly igor, you send me to a webpage with so many numbers that I still have to have a side-to-side scroll bar a the the bottom of my browser which is maximized and resident on my 21" monitor. Resourceful yes, but geeze, if I'm reading analyses this detailed I got to start using it to make money or something!

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11-18-2003, 02:49 PM
  #6
Fayne Gretzky
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Just a question.. can you play a variation of the trap 4 on 5? Just thought that might help the PK.

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