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Old
04-05-2012, 05:04 PM
  #26
Aeneas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chewBACHa View Post
I made my research
all teams from 2003-2009


EDM 28 53 52.8%
BOS 25 48 52.1%
NYI 31 64 48.4%
PIT 25 54 46.3%
NYR 27 59 45.8%
COL 25 55 45.5%
MTL 25 55 45.5%
BUF 24 55 43.6%
SJ 24 55 43.6%
CBJ 27 62 43.5%
DAL 22 51 43.1%
NSH 26 62 41.9%
STL 26 62 41.9%
NJ 21 51 41.2%
PHI 23 56 41.1%
LA 26 65 40.0%
OTT 22 55 40.0%
MIN 20 52 38.5%
TOR 18 47 38.3%
ANH 20 53 37.7%
WSH 23 61 37.7%
CGY 19 53 35.8%
CHI 25 70 35.7%
FLA 19 54 35.2%
TBL 19 56 33.9%
ATL 18 54 33.3%
PHO 17 52 32.7%
VAN 15 46 32.6%
CAR 15 48 31.3%
DET 15 50 30.0%
interestingggggg

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:05 PM
  #27
The Gal Pals
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chewBACHa View Post
I made my research
all teams from 2003-2009


EDM 28 53 52.8%
BOS 25 48 52.1%
NYI 31 64 48.4%
PIT 25 54 46.3%
NYR 27 59 45.8%
COL 25 55 45.5%
MTL 25 55 45.5%
BUF 24 55 43.6%
SJ 24 55 43.6%
CBJ 27 62 43.5%
DAL 22 51 43.1%
NSH 26 62 41.9%
STL 26 62 41.9%
NJ 21 51 41.2%
PHI 23 56 41.1%
LA 26 65 40.0%
OTT 22 55 40.0%
MIN 20 52 38.5%
TOR 18 47 38.3%
ANH 20 53 37.7%
WSH 23 61 37.7%
CGY 19 53 35.8%
CHI 25 70 35.7%
FLA 19 54 35.2%
TBL 19 56 33.9%
ATL 18 54 33.3%
PHO 17 52 32.7%
VAN 15 46 32.6%
CAR 15 48 31.3%
DET 15 50 30.0%
You can probably remove Pittsburgh, Edmonton, and NYI because it ain't hard to pick a bona fide NHLer at the draft when you have as many top 5 picks as these teams have had over the last few yrs. Overall Timmins is sitting in 7th place but he only had one Top 5 pick to work with over those yrs. So essentially he should be sitting in 4th overall position which is more than decent.

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:07 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by airic000 View Post
You guys seem to be arguing that quantity trumps quality. He just needs to up the quality in his forward picks.
I don't think anyone has said that quantity trumps quality, as I'm sure most will gladly give up the quantity if it meant a couple better players. Still it's impressive that so many of his picks dress in an NHL game at some point.

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:23 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
was going to ask this question...

Im sure he is above average... but is he top 5 ?
And can he fight?

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:30 PM
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Personally I don't mind his work. Still room for improvement. I think it is more important to have picks that stay in the NHL rather than picks that play a game in the NHL. But overall, good job. Never stop trying to improve!

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04-05-2012, 05:33 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by habsfan92 View Post
Personally I don't mind his work. Still room for improvement. I think it is more important to have picks that stay in the NHL rather than picks that play a game in the NHL. But overall, good job. Never stop trying to improve!
Of course it's more important to have picks that stay in the NHL rather then picks that play a game. If you look at the list, almost all of them are regular NHLers. Take out Locke and Greg Stewart, Carle and Flood. Dumont could be a regular at some point.

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:48 PM
  #32
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With Dumont dressing in his first NHL game, Trevor Timmins and his scouting staff from 2003 to 2009 have selected 55 players and after last night 25 have appeared in at least one NHL game to date.

In addition to the 25 are the un-drafted CHLers and FA NCAAers, David Desharnais, Cedrick Desjardins, Yann Danis, Frederic St. Denis, Andreas Engqvist, Brendon Nash, Robert Mayer and Brock Trotter.

Here's the list,

2003
Andrei Kostitsyn- 10th
Maxim Lapierre- 61st
Ryan O'Byrne- 79th
Corey Locke- 113th
Mark Flood- 188th
Jaroslav Halak- 271st


2004
Kyle Chipchura- 18th
Alexei Emelin- 84th
J.T. Wyman- 100th
Mikhail Grabovski- 150th
Greg Stewart- 246th
Mark Streit- 262nd


2005
Carey Price- 5th
Guillaume Latendresse- 45th
Matt D'Agostini- 190th
Sergei Kostitsyn- 200th


2006
Ben Maxwell- 49th
Mathieu Carle- 53rd
Ryan White- 66th


2007
Ryan McDonagh- 12th
Max Pacioretty- 22nd
P.K. Subban- 43rd
Yannick Weber- 73rd


2008
none

2009
Louis Leblanc- 18th
Gabriel Dumont- 139th
Only 8 left with the team.... Among them a couple of 4th liners and a 7th d-man !!! + a guy they never expected to make it: DD

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Old
04-05-2012, 05:59 PM
  #33
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not really
they got twice a top 10 pick

Draft Num. Round Player Pos GP G A Pts
2003 Entry 214 7 Kyle Brodziak C 417 73 99 172
2005 Entry 25 1 Andrew Cogliano C 408 69 102 171
2007 Entry 6 1 Sam Gagner C 364 76 143 219
2003 Entry 94 3 Zack Stortini C 257 14 27 41
2003 Entry 22 1 Marc-Antoine Pouliot C 192 21 36 57
2003 Entry 68 2 Jean-Francois Jacques L 166 9 8 17
2006 Entry 75 3 Theo Peckham D 156 4 13 17
2008 Entry 22 1 Jordan Eberle C 145 51 67 118
2009 Entry 10 1 Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson L 121 17 25 42
2004 Entry 25 1 Rob Schremp C 114 20 34 54
2003 Entry 278 9 Troy Bodie L 107 6 5 11
2006 Entry 45 2 Jeff Petry D 106 3 26 29
2004 Entry 112 4 Liam Reddox L 100 6 18 24
2004 Entry 14 1 Devan Dubnyk G 99 0 1 1
2007 Entry 97 4 Linus Omark W 65 8 22 30
2003 Entry 215 7 Mathieu Roy D 65 2 11 13
2005 Entry 36 2 Taylor Chorney D 61 1 6 7
2005 Entry 81 3 Danny Syvret D 59 3 4 7
2009 Entry 40 2 Anton Lander C 56 2 4 6
2008 Entry 163 6 Teemu Hartikainen L 27 5 5 10
2004 Entry 146 5 Bryan Young D 17 0 0 0
2005 Entry 97 4 Chris Vande Velde C 15 1 2 3
2007 Entry 15 1 Alex Plante D 10 0 2 2
2003 Entry 51 2 Colin McDonald R 7 1 0 1
2007 Entry 21 1 Riley Nash C 5 0 1 1
2008 Entry 133 5 Philippe Cornet L 2 0 1 1
2008 Entry 103 4 Johan Motin D 1 0 0 0
2007 Entry 127 5 Milan Kytnar C 1 0 0 0

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:02 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chewBACHa View Post
I made my research
all teams from 2003-2009


EDM 28 53 52.8%
BOS 25 48 52.1%
NYI 31 64 48.4%
PIT 25 54 46.3%
NYR 27 59 45.8%
COL 25 55 45.5%
MTL 25 55 45.5%
BUF 24 55 43.6%
SJ 24 55 43.6%
CBJ 27 62 43.5%
DAL 22 51 43.1%
NSH 26 62 41.9%
STL 26 62 41.9%
NJ 21 51 41.2%
PHI 23 56 41.1%
LA 26 65 40.0%
OTT 22 55 40.0%
MIN 20 52 38.5%
TOR 18 47 38.3%
ANH 20 53 37.7%
WSH 23 61 37.7%
CGY 19 53 35.8%
CHI 25 70 35.7%
FLA 19 54 35.2%
TBL 19 56 33.9%
ATL 18 54 33.3%
PHO 17 52 32.7%
VAN 15 46 32.6%
CAR 15 48 31.3%
DET 15 50 30.0%
Would be interesting to see the same kind of ranking but with a higher total of NHL games played. I still think the habs would be high but it could show which team is the best at drafting impact players.

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:05 PM
  #35
LyricalLyricist
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It would be cool if someone did a weighted average of some sort and used average GP by draft class and figured out a metric to compare to. The problem is, it's too time consuming and there's no fool proof weighted average method to be used as a draft position has no value for such an equation.

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:07 PM
  #36
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His defensive picks have been amazing. His drafting of forwards has left something to be desired tho outside of Patches. I mean when you take Fischer instead of Claude Giroux and AK46 instead of Carter, Brown, Perry, Parise, Richards you can't exactly argue that he's a beast. You guys seem to be arguing that quantity trumps quality. He just needs to up the quality in his forward picks.

But I have faith in Timmins tho. I just hope he knocks another one out of the park like he did with Patches.
There aren't many teams that have gotten more than one Pacioretty level forward outside of the top ten during that time. Philadelphia has, Anahiem has, Boston has, but I don't think there are many more. Also Grabrovski is a pretty solid two-way forward in his own right.

This becomes more the case if you leave out the huge outlier which was 2003 where there were so many impact players in the first 2 rounds a team could stumble on one by shear chance. I'm not sure drafting skill was necessarily the defining feature of teams that did well out of that year with so many chances to get it right.

More than 20 teams past on Giroux after all. You get a skewed sense of these things when you compare against the entire rest of the league collectively rather than as individual teams.

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:23 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
It would be cool if someone did a weighted average of some sort and used average GP by draft class and figured out a metric to compare to. The problem is, it's too time consuming and there's no fool proof weighted average method to be used as a draft position has no value for such an equation.
Best easy to use system is to ask the question did you pick the best player at the position? As a proxy for performance you can use the n' of games played. That way you control for draft rank and strength of draft fairly easily. Not a perfect system but for a quick look it will get it done.

For example: AK picked at 10 in 2003, next forward selected was Jeff Carter at 11. AK has played 396 games whereas Carter played 516 games. Your judgement also tells you Carter was the better player. In case of a tie simply have it as a push. With that system the Canadiens are still above average since 2003.

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:27 PM
  #38
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Three things :

1. The number of picks who made it with us is a testament to both how bad our teams have been and how good the drafting has been.

2. 2007 ftw

3. Streit wasn't in any way shape or form a Timmins pick. He was scouted by pro scouts, not amateur scouts. Timmins has responsability for the amateur scouts and whatever league they scour for steals. Streit should be stricken from the records. He could have been signed without drafting him. We used a draft pick in the last round to ensure he'd be our property. I've had this argument before with Mike8 and no one seems to understand that.. unfortunately.

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:35 PM
  #39
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Still don't understand why I haven't read anything about him and the GM job. Is he not interested? Is nobody asking him? I'd think in his role he'd be interested wouldn't he? Has there been any discussion on this in the media? His name just hasn't seem to come up on this.

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04-05-2012, 06:46 PM
  #40
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Kostitsyn - Grabovsky - Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Leblanc - Pacioretty
D'agostini - Lapierre - White
Dumont - Chipchura - Maxwell - Wyman - Stewart - Locke

Subban - McDonagh
Streit - Weber
Emelin - O'Byrne
Carle - Flood

Price
Halak

Even tho its not a solid team, its a really good draft.

Timmins have to stay.. he is proven to be good..

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04-05-2012, 06:48 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by airic000 View Post
His defensive picks have been amazing. His drafting of forwards has left something to be desired tho outside of Patches. I mean when you take Fischer instead of Claude Giroux and AK46 instead of Carter, Brown, Perry, Parise, Richards you can't exactly argue that he's a beast. You guys seem to be arguing that quantity trumps quality. He just needs to up the quality in his forward picks.

But I have faith in Timmins tho. I just hope he knocks another one out of the park like he did with Patches.
People always seem to bring up those examples but never taking Patches over Patrick White or Brendan Smith, or PK over Colby Cohen or Theo Ruth
Always the negatives, never the postives

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Old
04-05-2012, 06:52 PM
  #42
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http://www.theprovince.com/sports/en...#ixzz1peUkmRy7

This guy did a study himself, calculating the best percentage of draft picks in the NHL, and he also used his own judgement on weighing players on a 4 point scale. Montreal came first in drafting percentage, and in the "slugging" percentage, this guy calls it.

Top 3 in each category.

Average:

Montreal: .338

St. Louis: .318

San Jose: .307

Slugging:

Montreal: .613

Minnesota: .590

Nashville: .571

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04-05-2012, 07:05 PM
  #43
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Still don't understand why I haven't read anything about him and the GM job. Is he not interested? Is nobody asking him? I'd think in his role he'd be interested wouldn't he? Has there been any discussion on this in the media? His name just hasn't seem to come up on this.
It should come up. I understand if he doesn't get it, but 3 degrees related to the profession, 20 years of NHL management experience and talent evaluation and we're getting excited over guys who have been GMs for half a year or have no experience. The hell?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
Best easy to use system is to ask the question did you pick the best player at the position? As a proxy for performance you can use the n' of games played. That way you control for draft rank and strength of draft fairly easily. Not a perfect system but for a quick look it will get it done.

For example: AK picked at 10 in 2003, next forward selected was Jeff Carter at 11. AK has played 396 games whereas Carter played 516 games. Your judgement also tells you Carter was the better player. In case of a tie simply have it as a push. With that system the Canadiens are still above average since 2003.
That could work but how do we evaluate it in cases where it's close? I mean, what is the performance index here? Either way, it's such a hard metric to have because if you go by GP, not necessarily quality player. If you go by points, intangibles are lost. I suppose if you rate a player's overall ability on some kind of scale then multiply it by GP and a sort of draft location scale. For instance, 1st overall should have less impact on the quality of an organization's draft over 2nd overall and so on.

There's plenty of ways to do it, but I find in order to have an accurate assessment a LOT of trail and error on the draft class scale and draft position scale would have to be modified.

This is off the top of my head, but i'm sure you understand what I mean. The values would have to be tweaked and even then, they may not be foolproof but you'd hope if you have a large enough sample space, it would be reflective on the quality of a team's drafting.

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04-05-2012, 07:14 PM
  #44
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His defensive picks have been amazing. His drafting of forwards has left something to be desired tho outside of Patches. I mean when you take Fischer instead of Claude Giroux and AK46 instead of Carter, Brown, Perry, Parise, Richards you can't exactly argue that he's a beast. You guys seem to be arguing that quantity trumps quality. He just needs to up the quality in his forward picks.

But I have faith in Timmins tho. I just hope he knocks another one out of the park like he did with Patches.
I was just about to post the exact statement regarding quantity vs quality.

That list has a few gems but a hell of a lot more bottom 6 forwards that are "a dime a dozen" in the NHL.

Dont understand the god like worship that Timmins gets here but I would simply rate him as average based on the star quality of his draft picks.

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04-05-2012, 07:19 PM
  #45
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I was just about to post the exact statement regarding quantity vs quality.

That list has a few gems but a hell of a lot more bottom 6 forwards that are "a dime a dozen" in the NHL.

Dont understand the god like worship that Timmins gets here but I would simply rate him as average based on the star quality of his draft picks.
Take a look at that link I posted. Every list about the quality of the picks is subjective, but at least the one I linked was written by a Canucks fan, no Montreal bias in his article.

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04-05-2012, 07:23 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
That could work but how do we evaluate it in cases where it's close? I mean, what is the performance index here? Either way, it's such a hard metric to have because if you go by GP, not necessarily quality player. If you go by points, intangibles are lost. I suppose if you rate a player's overall ability on some kind of scale then multiply it by GP and a sort of draft location scale. For instance, 1st overall should have less impact on the quality of an organization's draft over 2nd overall and so on.

There's plenty of ways to do it, but I find in order to have an accurate assessment a LOT of trail and error on the draft class scale and draft position scale would have to be modified.

This is off the top of my head, but i'm sure you understand what I mean. The values would have to be tweaked and even then, they may not be foolproof but you'd hope if you have a large enough sample space, it would be reflective on the quality of a team's drafting.
When it's close simply mark it as a tie. You can set a threshold of +/- 20 or 50 games, it will basically come down to the same thing. You can use all sorts of metric. Win shares, adjusted +/- or whatever else, GP is still a good proxy. Not saying it's perfect to the point that the guy who played 501 games is absolutely better than the 500 games guy. But it will get it done on average.

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04-05-2012, 07:31 PM
  #47
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Take a look at that link I posted. Every list about the quality of the picks is subjective, but at least the one I linked was written by a Canucks fan, no Montreal bias in his article.
My reply did not even relate to bias whatsoever.

Exclude bias completely and on its face, the majority of players that Timmins drafted have been bottom 6 players.

That is my dispute with the effectiveness of Timmins........and not whether the article was written by someone from Vancouver or Montreal as that is irrelevant to the success of the Habs on the ice.

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04-05-2012, 07:46 PM
  #48
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Ryan McDonagh- 12th
Max Pacioretty- 22nd
P.K. Subban- 43rd
Yannick Weber- 73rd

That's a GREAT draft.

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04-05-2012, 08:09 PM
  #49
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It is not very important but I was curious...

Mark Flood was offered a contract but he refused it, right ?

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04-05-2012, 08:59 PM
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My reply did not even relate to bias whatsoever.

Exclude bias completely and on its face, the majority of players that Timmins drafted have been bottom 6 players.

That is my dispute with the effectiveness of Timmins........and not whether the article was written by someone from Vancouver or Montreal as that is irrelevant to the success of the Habs on the ice.
Look without bias at any team in the league and the majority are lower level players. Its just the nature of the beast.

Compare if he's getting significantly worse players on average per player that makes it if you want to make that point.

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