Nope. Actually they classified it as a case of whiplash. Glad you know you're well read up on our prospects. You know, so you can make accurate claims about them.
I'm talking about his injury last year, a concussion. Look it up, Buddy.
And my point is if we can get a Granlund at 9 think about what kind of a player we could get if we managed to draft 2nd or 3rd, when everyone is still on the table.
You're talking to someone who both studied probability and understood it, including the fact that events happen independently. Just because we have found good players during the mid first before does not guarantee us that we will find any this time. Picking earlier gets us a better, MUCH BETTER chance of getting a player who is at the top or at least very near the top of our draft board.
It's a valid point, but it's not a guarantee. Not to beat a dead horse again, but consider where Pouliot was picked.
It's a valid point, but it's not a guarantee. Not to beat a dead horse again, but consider where Pouliot was picked.
And no, I don't think you're crazy, so relax.
Le sigh...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avder
...(that 4th pick that GMDR whiffed on is incompetence stew and should never EVER be cited as evidence of anything other than incompetence breeding incompetence) ...
Well at least you don't think I'm crazy.
I can't wait until this season is over so this tanker vs non tanker crap can finally go away.
I can't wait until this season is over so this tanker vs non tanker crap can finally go away.
Oh it won't go away. Because when that draft comes around, we'll be arguing over who we picked and who we could have picked. When July 1st comes around, we'll be arguing over who we signed, who we didn't sign and WHY we didn't sign them. During training camp, we'll argue over who should and shouldn't make the team. And on opening day, we'll argue over Greenlay's choice of tie.
We will forever argue even when it comes to the parade route.
Oh it won't go away. Because when that draft comes around, we'll be arguing over who we picked and who we could have picked. When July 1st comes around, we'll be arguing over who we signed, who we didn't sign and WHY we didn't sign them.
We will forever argue even when it comes to the parade route.
Well thats different I guess.
Just sick of tanking vs nontanking. Seems like the Wild always seem to make a conscious decision to just fix everything immediately after theyve been eliminated and it just makes me want to pull my hair out year after year.
I hate this team this time of year, every year. I wish I was not a die hard Minnesota Sports Fan.
Look I'm just trying to to a point where even if you guys don't agree with me, you stop hammering me like you think I don't know a god damned thing and we can actually at the very least agree to disagree.
dont worry, you are 100% correct that having a top 5 pick over a 7, 8th, or 9th increases your odds of finding a good player...(not to mention an actual chance at #1)
I'm not saying that it wouldn't be great to have a higher pick, but it sure is nice to see some wins out of these guys. We are doing it how we did it early on in the season, keep the game close, tie it up late, win it in SO/OT. It's fine, and it gives us something to cheer about for the last few games. A couple years down the road, we won't remember winning all of these games, and hopefully we have a franchise player that can play for us for years to come.
The likelihood of us grabbing an NHL-ready talent would have been tough anyway. Consistently producing good prospects will lead to long-term growth, so we must hit on our first round pick, and we it appears we've been hitting on our 2nd round picks. We haven't had many 3rd or 4th rounders lately (which is a debatable point, but I like the idea of moving up if a guy is there you want a la Zucker and Lucia). We're going to be adding a couple of new guys to the system and another blue-chip prospect to go along with Granlund and Brodin. There's always guys who fall and maybe we get someone that drops.
The real problem with this season was the incredibly fast start, the epic collapse really sucked. It was the worst collapse in recent history. We didn't make the playoffs, but we'll be picking in the top 7 which isn't a bad consolation prize. The team has things to build off of, and we should have depth in the minors with what 6-7 guys turning pro next year making it easier when the inevitable injuries happen. We'll get to see the one we've all been waiting for in Granlund finally. If he can produce like a 2nd line center should and take a little pressure off of Koivu, maybe we see a boost in his numbers? Yes, Koivu would be a really good #2 on most playoff teams, but he can be a #1 center on this team and we can succeed with him here. He does so much well, and losing him the last few years has killed this team. We don't have anyone who can do what he can do. The hope is maybe Larsson or someone could fill his shoes at least for a short time in the future when/if he gets hurt. I'd love to see us continue to draft centers, you just can never have too much depth there.
I'm talking about his injury last year, a concussion. Look it up, Buddy.
Actually, if you read here: (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/ar...72899-p-2.html)
It was whiplash, not a concussion. Still good to know that you're up to date on our prospects when you give your opinions on them.
Last edited by BuddyMcCormick: 04-06-2012 at 09:17 AM.
Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov would be my top-5 as of today. Fowler, Bjugstad, and Schwartz would be right there with Granlund too. Not sure exactly where I'd put MiG, but it's not top-5. There's a lot of good talent coming from this draft.
Interesting, only two of those guys are top 5 picks.
You know what's funny too is if we would have lost last night, but won the last game. We still could have been 7th and everyone would have been raging then.
Toronto and Anaheim would also need to get a point.
Toronto plays Montreal so it's entirely possible there. Anahiem plays Calgary. Calgary is 2-4-4 in the past 10, so they're not setting the world on fire. Islanders play the Blue Jackets. It's not out of the question for all of those teams to pick up the necessary points.
Toronto plays Montreal so it's entirely possible there. Anahiem plays Calgary. Calgary is 2-4-4 in the past 10, so they're not setting the world on fire. Islanders play the Blue Jackets. It's not out of the question for all of those teams to pick up the necessary points.
Not at all, just like all of the teams we needed to get points, got them last night as well.
This tank/non-tank is killing me. I'm happy for the guys that they are winning, they can do a little pitch to free agents, but I wants me some good draft picks.
Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov would be my top-5 as of today. Fowler, Bjugstad, and Schwartz would be right there with Granlund too. Not sure exactly where I'd put MiG, but it's not top-5. There's a lot of good talent coming from this draft.
I'd probably have him 4th.
Seguin
Hall
Kuznetsov
Granlund
Fowler (man, I hate to put any stock in +/-, but his first two years have been ugly)
Tarasenko
Skinner
Schwartz
Coyle
Bjugstad (loads of potential, but has been outplayed by a 7th rounder this year)
Here are the odds of drafting a bust, NHL'er, or All Star from 2000-2008. My ratings are subjective, based on games played, point production, All Star appearances, and my bias.
Pick
Odds Bust
Odds NHL
Odds All Star
Cm. Bust
Cm. NHL
Cm. All Star
1
0%
100%
78%
0%
100%
78%
2
0%
100%
67%
0%
100%
72%
3
11%
89%
22%
4%
96%
56%
4
11%
89%
22%
6%
94%
47%
5
11%
89%
33%
7%
93%
44%
6
22%
78%
0%
9%
91%
37%
7
22%
78%
11%
11%
89%
33%
8
33%
67%
0%
14%
86%
29%
9
33%
67%
11%
16%
84%
27%
10
44%
56%
0%
19%
81%
24%
11
44%
56%
22%
21%
79%
24%
12
33%
67%
11%
22%
78%
23%
13
22%
78%
11%
22%
78%
22%
14
22%
78%
0%
22%
78%
21%
15
78%
22%
11%
26%
74%
20%
16
44%
56%
0%
27%
73%
19%
17
33%
67%
11%
27%
73%
18%
18
44%
56%
0%
28%
72%
17%
19
56%
44%
11%
30%
70%
17%
20
33%
67%
11%
30%
70%
17%
21
33%
67%
0%
30%
70%
16%
22
44%
56%
22%
31%
69%
16%
23
33%
67%
0%
31%
69%
15%
24
22%
78%
11%
31%
69%
15%
25
44%
56%
11%
31%
69%
15%
26
44%
56%
0%
32%
68%
15%
27
56%
44%
0%
33%
67%
14%
28
33%
67%
11%
33%
67%
14%
29
56%
44%
11%
33%
67%
14%
30
78%
22%
0%
35%
65%
13%
Here's how to read it:
Pick is self-explanatory
Odds are just that, the odds of getting that kind of player with that pick
Cumulative odds mean that if you're drafting in the top X, the odds of getting that kind of player
For an example, let's look at 7th overall. 22% of the time it's a bust, 67% of the time it's a regular, and 11% of the time it's an all star. 67% + 11% is 78%, which is the odds of getting at least a regular NHL'er.
If you expand that to picking in the top 7, 11% of the time bust, 89% at least regular NHL'er, 33% all star.
Compared to top 4 pick, that's 6% bust, 94% regular NHL'er, 47% all star.
Which means exactly what Avder and SoH are saying: the higher you draft, the better the odds of getting a regular NHL'er and an All Star.
Let's not keep going to the "Pouliot was a 4th overall" card over and over again. Yes there are later round gems. We get that. But in the real world, we look at data and odds.
I moved a whole bunch of posts from the GDT here to continue some of the discussion.
Earlier someone made a claim that a 4th overall is as likely to bust as make the NHL...and that's clearly not the case. And people are cherry picking certain teams and drafts to make their arguments.
This is the body of drafting for a significant chunk of time. And it clearly shows the higher you draft, the more success you will have.
If you look at a top three pick versus a top 10, it's almost twice as likely to be an All Star player. A top 10 pick is five times more likely to bust versus a top three pick.
It gets exponentially easier to get an NHL player or All Star regular the higher you draft.
I'm actually surprised that so many 1st rounders are NHL material. I actually expected more busts (even in the 1st).
I think its important to look at that All Star column. Pretty much every NHL team has a couple of Elite players... Every team except the Wild.
We REALLY need that All Star caliber player. The kind of guy who is going to score in that clutch moment. Heatley in his prime, Koivu in beast mode, etc. And as the numbers point out, the odds of grabbing an All Star drop off quickly outside of the top 5.
