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2012 NHL Entry Draft Talk 7.0

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:27 AM
  #951
shutehinside
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Originally Posted by SOLR View Post
But it's a false argument. Gainey-Gauther really failed on this one like they failed most times they traded prospects or young players. Ribeiro, Kostitsyn etc. For Mcdonagh to "prove your point" we would have to know what others options were out there. You can't make a trend out of poor GMs moves...

And there's another angle to this, we are talking about top 5 Ds pick right?

Bogosian, Doughty, Hedman probably could have fetch the same quality forward(top 5), but once you take a top 5, you usually don't trade them for another because you like it. Is Murray of that quality? I would agree with you he is not, in a strong year, hes a bubble top 10 pick.
Totally agree with you on this. I mean if you make a bad trade then you should never make another one again? What's the saying, if at first you don't succeed, **** it and have a beer?

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04-06-2012, 11:29 AM
  #952
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The Grigorenko vs Galchenyuk baby-war we have on this thread is bordering on ridiculous. Are you guys seriously arguing about who speaks the better English? Who the hell cares?

I personally don't care who we draft in the first round. One of those 2 or another or even a d-man... Don't care. All I know is that we'll get a top talent and that he will be a big part of the team for years. Heck, I wouldn't be against trading down if they feel the best guy will still be available later. I trust the scouting team to make the right choice.
It's Price vs Halak all over again, expect not one of them is ours yet!

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Bogosian, Doughty, Hedman probably could have fetch the same quality forward(top 5), but once you take a top 5, you usually don't trade them for another because you like it. Is Murray of that quality? I would agree with you he is not, in a strong year, hes a bubble top 10 pick.
Murray is a top end prospect, no way he's a 'bubble' top 10 pick any other year. I figure he'd be the 2nd D picked last year and the first in 2010.

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04-06-2012, 11:33 AM
  #953
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Well you can't expect the same production from a prospect as you can from young forward. You're trying to compare apples to oranges.

The point is trades for a defensman for a forward happen often whether they be prospects or young players or older vets is irrelevant.

You're nit picking on semantics to try to prove some irrelevant point but your missing the point.
The point is there is not enough ice time to go around for all the young defencemen

4 headed to Hamilton this summer
3 more in 2013
Plus that doesn't account for Didier or Sullivan

thats 9 defencemen

Plus Subban, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz on the big squad already.

When you can't find quality ice time for all your prospects they are gonna get stuck in press boxes and not be good for development.

Plus you probably want at least one Alex Henry type D in Hamilton to teach your kids and you don't want to go into a habs season with more than 2 rookie D in your top 6, so the solution isn't "oh but they'll graduate"

The point is our system is pretty full.

We maybe can make room for one more defensive prospect, but more than that and we aren't going to give our guys a fair chance to develop and if we don't do that, what do you think they are gonna be worth in trades?

Its a recipe for wasting assets and poor development.

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04-06-2012, 11:45 AM
  #954
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
The point is there is not enough ice time to go around for all the young defencemen

4 headed to Hamilton this summer
3 more in 2013
Plus that doesn't account for Didier or Sullivan

thats 9 defencemen

Plus Subban, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz on the big squad already.

When you can't find quality ice time for all your prospects they are gonna get stuck in press boxes and not be good for development.

Plus you probably want at least one Alex Henry type D in Hamilton to teach your kids and you don't want to go into a habs season with more than 2 rookie D in your top 6, so the solution isn't "oh but they'll graduate"

The point is our system is pretty full.

We maybe can make room for one more defensive prospect, but more than that and we aren't going to give our guys a fair chance to develop and if we don't do that, what do you think they are gonna be worth in trades?

Its a recipe for wasting assets and poor development.
Oh no...we have 7 defensemen coming over in the next 2 years! Out of that, only Beaulieu, Tinordi and Ellis could be qualified top end prospects. Pateryn is a long shot and will likely require a lesser role next year to be eased into bigger minutes.

Then it's only 2 more coming in I would presume in Dietz and Nygren. By that time, one will likely have graduated between Ellis and Beaulieu. Bennett will go back for his senior year.

But bringing up longshots like Pateryn, Dietz, Nygren and Sullivan/Didier to not pick a D is absurd. The rest we don't know what they're going to shape up to be. So if they feel quality defensemen are the best options at some of our first picks, I don't see the argument to be made against it.

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04-06-2012, 11:46 AM
  #955
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
The point is there is not enough ice time to go around for all the young defencemen

4 headed to Hamilton this summer
3 more in 2013
Plus that doesn't account for Didier or Sullivan

thats 9 defencemen

Plus Subban, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz on the big squad already.

When you can't find quality ice time for all your prospects they are gonna get stuck in press boxes and not be good for development.

Plus you probably want at least one Alex Henry type D in Hamilton to teach your kids and you don't want to go into a habs season with more than 2 rookie D in your top 6, so the solution isn't "oh but they'll graduate"

The point is our system is pretty full.

We maybe can make room for one more defensive prospect, but more than that and we aren't going to give our guys a fair chance to develop and if we don't do that, what do you think they are gonna be worth in trades?

Its a recipe for wasting assets and poor development.
I think that's true later in the draft, but you don't specifically not draft a stud defensive prospect because you want to give guys like Diaz, Emelin, Nash, Dietz, and Bennett a "fair chance." The cream rises to the top. If they have to play in the ECHL first, so be it. Desharnais persevered. If you're going to make it, you're going to make it. If you have to be coddled to have a chance, you're never going to be worth much anyway (either in terms of on-ice value or trade value)

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04-06-2012, 11:49 AM
  #956
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
The point is there is not enough ice time to go around for all the young defencemen

4 headed to Hamilton this summer
3 more in 2013
Plus that doesn't account for Didier or Sullivan

thats 9 defencemen

Plus Subban, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz on the big squad already.

When you can't find quality ice time for all your prospects they are gonna get stuck in press boxes and not be good for development.

Plus you probably want at least one Alex Henry type D in Hamilton to teach your kids and you don't want to go into a habs season with more than 2 rookie D in your top 6, so the solution isn't "oh but they'll graduate"

The point is our system is pretty full.

We maybe can make room for one more defensive prospect, but more than that and we aren't going to give our guys a fair chance to develop and if we don't do that, what do you think they are gonna be worth in trades?

Its a recipe for wasting assets and poor development.
So having a competitive farm team where you have to play well to get ice time is detrimental to development? I always thought that was a recipe for success.

Besides, a tandem of Tinordi and Beaulieu play 20-25+ minutes, followed by the next pairing playing 20+ minutes and the bottom pairing play 15+ minutes is more than enough playing time to develop especially for their first year. As they graduate and make the step to the NHL the next group moves up in ice time assuming they deserve it.

Also, don't forget, not all these prospects will pan out. It won't have to do with poor development or mismanagement, some players just don't pan out. We'de be really fortunate to get 2 or 3 out of the new crop stand out and make it to the NHL if we're lucky. No team has 100% of their prospects make the jump and become successful NHL players. A team needs to focus on the players that have the best chance to make it. Trade the next tier for other assets or fodder for their AHL team.

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04-06-2012, 11:56 AM
  #957
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
The point is there is not enough ice time to go around for all the young defencemen

4 headed to Hamilton this summer
3 more in 2013
Plus that doesn't account for Didier or Sullivan

thats 9 defencemen

Plus Subban, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz on the big squad already.

When you can't find quality ice time for all your prospects they are gonna get stuck in press boxes and not be good for development.

Plus you probably want at least one Alex Henry type D in Hamilton to teach your kids and you don't want to go into a habs season with more than 2 rookie D in your top 6, so the solution isn't "oh but they'll graduate"

The point is our system is pretty full.

We maybe can make room for one more defensive prospect, but more than that and we aren't going to give our guys a fair chance to develop and if we don't do that, what do you think they are gonna be worth in trades?

Its a recipe for wasting assets and poor development.
There in lies part of the problem. You need to leave room for your prospects to develop, not room for career AHL'ers who may not be mentoring players the way we imagine it.

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:04 PM
  #958
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Does anybody know if timmins scouted sArnia in the playoffs?

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:08 PM
  #959
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Forsberg or Grigorenko plzzzzzzzzz

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:21 PM
  #960
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What do people think of Dumba. I like the idea of having another tough defenseman with leadership and some offense. I know he doesn't address our biggest need, but he seems to have that commanding presence. He's an interesting prospect

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04-06-2012, 12:28 PM
  #961
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
data from last
10 years = 62.5 % of cracking roster 1st yr eligibility (2004 lockout- assuming Ovie and Malkin play, Barker and Ladd do not)
5 years = 75% of cracking roster 1st yr eligibility

Higher chance of if we don`t pick a russian

Based on the last 5 years, chances are very good we see our pick play in the NHL

2002
Rick Nash YES
Kari Lehtonen NO
Jay Bouwmeester YES
Joni Pitkanen NO

2

2003
Marc-Andre Fleury YES
ERIC STALL YES
NATHAN HORTON YES
NIKOLAI ZHERDEV YES

4

2004
ALEX OVECHKIN NO
EVGENI MALKIN NO
CAM BARKER NO
ANDREW LADD NO

0

2005

SIDNEY CROSBY YES
BOBBY RYAN NO
JACK JOHNSON NO
BENOIT POULIOT NO

1

2006

ERIK JOHNSON NO
JORDAN STAAL YES
JONATHAN TOEWS NO
NICKLAS BACKSTROM NO

1

2007
PATRICK KANE - YES
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK- NO
KYLE TURRIS - YES (3 GAMES)
THOMAS HICKEY - NO

2

2008
STEVEN STAMKOS - YES
DREW DOUGHTY - YES
ZACH BOGOSIAN - YES
ALEX PIETRANGELO - YES ( 8 GAMES)

4

2009
JOHN TAVARES - YES
VICTOR HEDMAN - YES
MATT DUCHENE - YES
EVANDER KANE - YES

4

2010
TAYLOR HALL - YES
TYLER SEGUIN - YES
ERIC GUDBRANSON - NO
RYAN JOHANSEN - NO

2

2011
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS -YES
GABRIEL LANDESKOG -YES
JONATHAN HUERDEAU-NO
ADAM LARSSON -YES

3
From a hockey perspective, in the majority of these cases, the "yes" player should have spent at least another year developing outside the NHL. From a cap perspective, it burns a year on a player who is still not ready to contribute. The only advantage I see to early promotion is selling tickets and creating hype - something the Habs have the advantage of not worrying about.

I like the Claude Giroux development path. The only way I can see early promotion possibly making sense is with Yakupov. He is a '93 birthday, the Russian factor makes getting him under contract a little bit more urgent, and his level of play and physical development is just ahead of everyone else in this draft. For Grigorenko, Forsberg, Dumba or Murray, another year in their current leagues (or hopefully the SEL, if Forsberg's team wins promotion) is the way to go, IMO.

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04-06-2012, 12:59 PM
  #962
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From a hockey perspective, in the majority of these cases, the "yes" player should have spent at least another year developing outside the NHL. From a cap perspective, it burns a year on a player who is still not ready to contribute. The only advantage I see to early promotion is selling tickets and creating hype - something the Habs have the advantage of not worrying about.

I like the Claude Giroux development path. The only way I can see early promotion possibly making sense is with Yakupov. He is a '93 birthday, the Russian factor makes getting him under contract a little bit more urgent, and his level of play and physical development is just ahead of everyone else in this draft. For Grigorenko, Forsberg, Dumba or Murray, another year in their current leagues (or hopefully the SEL, if Forsberg's team wins promotion) is the way to go, IMO.
can you back up this opinion with evidence?

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04-06-2012, 01:01 PM
  #963
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can you back up this opinion with evidence?

can you knit pick more?

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04-06-2012, 01:02 PM
  #964
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What do people think of Dumba. I like the idea of having another tough defenseman with leadership and some offense. I know he doesn't address our biggest need, but he seems to have that commanding presence. He's an interesting prospect
just imagine we sign him and he struggles... with his last name, he`s going to have no chance with us crazy fans and media.

Someone with a name DUMBa needs to play as south as possible, where the sun shines a lot and most ppl drive to games in tractors and wear overalls

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04-06-2012, 01:04 PM
  #965
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Originally Posted by Halifaxhab View Post
can you knit pick more?
well, hes making the claim that top 4 picks would be best suited if they play an extra year or two before the NHL....

what indicates this to be true?

maybe for marginal prospects, later picks.. but for top 4 ? Not sure if it holds fully true.... so enlighten me.

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04-06-2012, 01:17 PM
  #966
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Right now I'm leaning toward Forsberg or Grigorenko.

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04-06-2012, 01:21 PM
  #967
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What do people think of Dumba. I like the idea of having another tough defenseman with leadership and some offense. I know he doesn't address our biggest need, but he seems to have that commanding presence. He's an interesting prospect
If we go for a defenceman, I'd rather have Murray. I see a top 5 this year with Murray and the top 4 forwards that we are all talking about. If we don't get one of those players, I'll be dissapointed.

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04-06-2012, 01:25 PM
  #968
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If we go for a defenceman, I'd rather have Murray. I see a top 5 this year with Murray and the top 4 forwards that we are all talking about. If we don't get one of those players, I'll be dissapointed.
True, I perfer Murray over Dumba. Even though Dumba is rougher, plays like Dion Phaneuf, I'm afraid he might go for the big hit and leave his defense partner on a 2-1 break.

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04-06-2012, 01:30 PM
  #969
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True, I perfer Murray over Dumba. Even though Dumba is rougher, plays like Dion Phaneuf, I'm afraid he might go for the big hit and leave his defense partner on a 2-1 break.
And another calming presence on the back end would help...kind of like Hamrlik last season.

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04-06-2012, 01:32 PM
  #970
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can you back up this opinion with evidence?
Focusing on the post-lockout years, because that's when the ELC years became extremely valuable for stars:

Crosby - tricky, because he was in the very rare situation of being too good for juniors. There could be a case made for the Pens finding a creative solution (spending a year in Sweden would be strange, but maybe brilliant), as they burned an ELC year on another last place finish. Of course, they needed to sell tickets, so any hockey/cap argument would've been moot for them.

JStaal - not too good for a juniors. Was not dominant in his draft season. Could have led the Petes and TC for another season, and saved the Pens some cap trouble later on. Scored a bunch in his rookie season, but it was an illusion, inflated by a ridiculous shooting % of 22% that he would never repeat.

PKane - burned a year of his ELC on a non-playoff season for Chicago. Would've had the challenge of leading London without Gagner and Sergei.

Turris - I don't think it's an argument, everyone including his team decided he needed more seasoning. In hindsight, he probably would've benefited from a second season at Wisconsin.

Stamkos - burnt two non-playoff seasons off his ELC. His rookie season was a circus in TB. Like with Crosby, the team needed to sell tickets ("Seen Stamkos"), but from a cap perspective, I'd love to see this kind of phenom spend a season in Europe to circumvent the CHL/AHL agreement.

Doughty - like most of these prospects, the team burnt a non-playoff season off his ELC, and had to deal with his inflated, market value cap hit (IMO) prematurely.

Bogosian - burnt all three seasons of his ELC on a non-playoff team. In his case, I think you can argue that early promotion actually hurt the player's hockey development. Opposition coaches quickly realized that he was not yet able to handle their best forwards, and that the Thrashers did not have the depth to shelter him. He's had a tough ride.

Pietrangelo - the team agreed, he needed more time.

Tavares and Hall - see my points on Crosby and Stamkos. Great players who were ready for more, but everyone knew the Isles/Oilers were going to suck. A creative solution would've saved them his current cap hit.

Hedman, Larsson, EKane, Landeskog, RNH - non-playoff ELC year burning yada yada, Hedman and Larsson were/are definitely not too good for the SEL and Evander, Landeskog and RNH could have had good experiences leading their teams at the WJC.

Seguin - the rare good team with a top pick, actually made the playoffs and won the Cup. But, Seguin did not play most of the season like a bonafide NHL'er. The Bruins could have gotten better production from a veteran NHL'er for $3.5mil, and saved a year on Seguin's ELC.

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04-06-2012, 01:34 PM
  #971
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just imagine we sign him and he struggles... with his last name, he`s going to have no chance with us crazy fans and media.

Someone with a name DUMBa needs to play as south as possible, where the sun shines a lot and most ppl drive to games in tractors and wear overalls

I can't tell if you are the best or worst poster on this forum.

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04-06-2012, 01:41 PM
  #972
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Focusing on the post-lockout years, because that's when the ELC years became extremely valuable for stars:

Crosby - tricky, because he was in the very rare situation of being too good for juniors. There could be a case made for the Pens finding a creative solution (spending a year in Sweden would be strange, but maybe brilliant), as they burned an ELC year on another last place finish. Of course, they needed to sell tickets, so any hockey/cap argument would've been moot for them.

JStaal - not too good for a juniors. Was not dominant in his draft season. Could have led the Petes and TC for another season, and saved the Pens some cap trouble later on. Scored a bunch in his rookie season, but it was an illusion, inflated by a ridiculous shooting % of 22% that he would never repeat.

PKane - burned a year of his ELC on a non-playoff season for Chicago. Would've had the challenge of leading London without Gagner and Sergei.

Turris - I don't think it's an argument, everyone including his team decided he needed more seasoning. In hindsight, he probably would've benefited from a second season at Wisconsin.

Stamkos - burnt two non-playoff seasons off his ELC. His rookie season was a circus in TB. Like with Crosby, the team needed to sell tickets ("Seen Stamkos"), but from a cap perspective, I'd love to see this kind of phenom spend a season in Europe to circumvent the CHL/AHL agreement.

Doughty - like most of these prospects, the team burnt a non-playoff season off his ELC, and had to deal with his inflated, market value cap hit (IMO) prematurely.

Bogosian - burnt all three seasons of his ELC on a non-playoff team. In his case, I think you can argue that early promotion actually hurt the player's hockey development. Opposition coaches quickly realized that he was not yet able to handle their best forwards, and that the Thrashers did not have the depth to shelter him. He's had a tough ride.

Pietrangelo - the team agreed, he needed more time.

Tavares and Hall - see my points on Crosby and Stamkos. Great players who were ready for more, but everyone knew the Isles/Oilers were going to suck. A creative solution would've saved them his current cap hit.

Hedman, Larsson, EKane, Landeskog, RNH - non-playoff ELC year burning yada yada, Hedman and Larsson were/are definitely not too good for the SEL and Evander, Landeskog and RNH could have had good experiences leading their teams at the WJC.

Seguin - the rare good team with a top pick, actually made the playoffs and won the Cup. But, Seguin did not play most of the season like a bonafide NHL'er. The Bruins could have gotten better production from a veteran NHL'er for $3.5mil, and saved a year on Seguin's ELC.
Every one of those picks turned out alright save for Hedman who clearly wasn't ready for the big show this year.

Staal is very arguable, imo. If the Pens could do it over I don't think they would change a thing considering his rookie season.

Larsson got destroyed by Subban but he was probably on his way to being the best rookie defenseman this year if not for the injury. NJD fans say he hasn't been the same since his return.

Who cares about ELC's, really?

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04-06-2012, 01:43 PM
  #973
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Every one of those picks turned out alright save for Hedman who clearly wasn't ready for the big show this year.

Staal is very arguable, imo. If the Pens could do it over I don't think they would change a thing considering his rookie season.

Larsson got destroyed by Subban but he was probably on his way to being the best rookie defenseman this year if not for the injury. NJD fans say he hasn't been the same since his return.

Who cares about ELC's, really?
I agree...you need to give NHL time to the rookies...they will never be great right away if they are not named Crosby or Ovechkin. After a year or two, you will get the player you were waiting for. There's the usual growing pains with a player before he becomes great.

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04-06-2012, 01:48 PM
  #974
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Anyone will have a stream for Québec vs Halifax game tonight? If so, pm me plz!

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04-06-2012, 01:49 PM
  #975
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Focusing on the post-lockout years, because that's when the ELC years became extremely valuable for stars:

Crosby - tricky, because he was in the very rare situation of being too good for juniors. There could be a case made for the Pens finding a creative solution (spending a year in Sweden would be strange, but maybe brilliant), as they burned an ELC year on another last place finish. Of course, they needed to sell tickets, so any hockey/cap argument would've been moot for them.

JStaal - not too good for a juniors. Was not dominant in his draft season. Could have led the Petes and TC for another season, and saved the Pens some cap trouble later on. Scored a bunch in his rookie season, but it was an illusion, inflated by a ridiculous shooting % of 22% that he would never repeat.

PKane - burned a year of his ELC on a non-playoff season for Chicago. Would've had the challenge of leading London without Gagner and Sergei.

Turris - I don't think it's an argument, everyone including his team decided he needed more seasoning. In hindsight, he probably would've benefited from a second season at Wisconsin.

Stamkos - burnt two non-playoff seasons off his ELC. His rookie season was a circus in TB. Like with Crosby, the team needed to sell tickets ("Seen Stamkos"), but from a cap perspective, I'd love to see this kind of phenom spend a season in Europe to circumvent the CHL/AHL agreement.

Doughty - like most of these prospects, the team burnt a non-playoff season off his ELC, and had to deal with his inflated, market value cap hit (IMO) prematurely.

Bogosian - burnt all three seasons of his ELC on a non-playoff team. In his case, I think you can argue that early promotion actually hurt the player's hockey development. Opposition coaches quickly realized that he was not yet able to handle their best forwards, and that the Thrashers did not have the depth to shelter him. He's had a tough ride.

Pietrangelo - the team agreed, he needed more time.

Tavares and Hall - see my points on Crosby and Stamkos. Great players who were ready for more, but everyone knew the Isles/Oilers were going to suck. A creative solution would've saved them his current cap hit.

Hedman, Larsson, EKane, Landeskog, RNH - non-playoff ELC year burning yada yada, Hedman and Larsson were/are definitely not too good for the SEL and Evander, Landeskog and RNH could have had good experiences leading their teams at the WJC.

Seguin - the rare good team with a top pick, actually made the playoffs and won the Cup. But, Seguin did not play most of the season like a bonafide NHL'er. The Bruins could have gotten better production from a veteran NHL'er for $3.5mil, and saved a year on Seguin's ELC.
Small problem, your neglecting in all of this the acclamation period for a prospect to adjust to the speed, whose to say that Chicago or Tampa make the playoffs if there players aren't use to the speed of the show regardless if we pick grigs I can see him spending another year in junior going through one more season of thi crap and then in 13-14 we put all the chips on the table and make a playoff push then in 14-15 be cup contenders

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