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2012 NHL Entry Draft Talk 7.0

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04-06-2012, 01:49 PM
  #976
poetryinmotion
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Originally Posted by domdo345 View Post
Anyone will have a stream for Québec vs Halifax game tonight? If so, pm me plz!
Then you PM the rest of us?

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04-06-2012, 01:52 PM
  #977
Roulin
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Every one of those picks turned out alright save for Hedman who clearly wasn't ready for the big show this year.

Staal is very arguable, imo. If the Pens could do it over I don't think they would change a thing considering his rookie season.

Larsson got destroyed by Subban but he was probably on his way to being the best rookie defenseman this year if not for the injury. NJD fans say he hasn't been the same since his return.

Who cares about ELC's, really?
Anyone who doesn't care about ELC's should not be complaining about any of the team's contracts. If you don't care whether Grigorenko has a 3 or 6 million dollar cap hit by the time he becomes the NHL'er his team expects him to be, I don't want to see you complaining about acquiring a third pairing dman who makes over 4mil.

This is the game now. The Habs will be spending close to the cap every season. Their probability of winning games is tied directly to how they allocate that cap space. Spending a chunk of it on a teenager who is still developing, while moving his RFA and UFA years forward is mismanagement that affects the team's ability to win.

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04-06-2012, 01:53 PM
  #978
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Focusing on the post-lockout years, because that's when the ELC years became extremely valuable for stars:

Crosby - tricky, because he was in the very rare situation of being too good for juniors. There could be a case made for the Pens finding a creative solution (spending a year in Sweden would be strange, but maybe brilliant), as they burned an ELC year on another last place finish. Of course, they needed to sell tickets, so any hockey/cap argument would've been moot for them.

JStaal - not too good for a juniors. Was not dominant in his draft season. Could have led the Petes and TC for another season, and saved the Pens some cap trouble later on. Scored a bunch in his rookie season, but it was an illusion, inflated by a ridiculous shooting % of 22% that he would never repeat.

PKane - burned a year of his ELC on a non-playoff season for Chicago. Would've had the challenge of leading London without Gagner and Sergei.

Turris - I don't think it's an argument, everyone including his team decided he needed more seasoning. In hindsight, he probably would've benefited from a second season at Wisconsin.

Stamkos - burnt two non-playoff seasons off his ELC. His rookie season was a circus in TB. Like with Crosby, the team needed to sell tickets ("Seen Stamkos"), but from a cap perspective, I'd love to see this kind of phenom spend a season in Europe to circumvent the CHL/AHL agreement.

Doughty - like most of these prospects, the team burnt a non-playoff season off his ELC, and had to deal with his inflated, market value cap hit (IMO) prematurely.

Bogosian - burnt all three seasons of his ELC on a non-playoff team. In his case, I think you can argue that early promotion actually hurt the player's hockey development. Opposition coaches quickly realized that he was not yet able to handle their best forwards, and that the Thrashers did not have the depth to shelter him. He's had a tough ride.

Pietrangelo - the team agreed, he needed more time.

Tavares and Hall - see my points on Crosby and Stamkos. Great players who were ready for more, but everyone knew the Isles/Oilers were going to suck. A creative solution would've saved them his current cap hit.

Hedman, Larsson, EKane, Landeskog, RNH - non-playoff ELC year burning yada yada, Hedman and Larsson were/are definitely not too good for the SEL and Evander, Landeskog and RNH could have had good experiences leading their teams at the WJC.

Seguin - the rare good team with a top pick, actually made the playoffs and won the Cup. But, Seguin did not play most of the season like a bonafide NHL'er. The Bruins could have gotten better production from a veteran NHL'er for $3.5mil, and saved a year on Seguin's ELC.
Why would the Bolts be worried about Stamkos ELC ? Most of your examples of teams burning a year are moot since these players will be locked up long term anyways and the advantages of having them earlier do help the team in the immediate future.

And who cares if players like KANE if they burnt a year on a non-playoff team ???? Certainly did not effect his ability to score OT to win the Hawks a cup.

I think your argument holds truth for mid to late round picks... Not top 4.

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04-06-2012, 01:54 PM
  #979
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Murray is a top end prospect, no way he's a 'bubble' top 10 pick any other year. I figure he'd be the 2nd D picked last year and the first in 2010.
2010 first? That's pretty revisionist. I don't think he's ahead of Gudbranson and he's certainly after Skinner. Granted a team could need a D like Murray, but on a pure ranking basis I think 2010 is perfect example how he could be picked 10th(McIlrath) or 12th.(Cam Fowler)

2011, since you agree that Larsson is ahead...he's probably picked 9th(Dougie Hamilton...) or 10th(Brodin). Just not sure how I would rank Murray or Hamilton differently.

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Old
04-06-2012, 01:57 PM
  #980
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
I agree...you need to give NHL time to the rookies...they will never be great right away if they are not named Crosby or Ovechkin. After a year or two, you will get the player you were waiting for. There's the usual growing pains with a player before he becomes great.
Claude Giroux was. The Flyers brought him along slowly, didn't give him a contract until he was 20 years old. In his rookie season, he put up 5 points in 6 playoff games, leading the team along with Richards. In his sophomore season he scored 21 points in 23 games as the Flyers went to the finals. In his third season, he was lights out dominant. All this on an ELC, as the Flyers spent the saved cap space on other positions.

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Old
04-06-2012, 02:00 PM
  #981
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Originally Posted by subbanged View Post
Small problem, your neglecting in all of this the acclamation period for a prospect to adjust to the speed, whose to say that Chicago or Tampa make the playoffs if there players aren't use to the speed of the show regardless if we pick grigs I can see him spending another year in junior going through one more season of thi crap and then in 13-14 we put all the chips on the table and make a playoff push then in 14-15 be cup contenders

Xxxx-grigerenko-cole
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Eller
Leblanc-plekanec-gionta
White-bournival-xxxx

Subban-tinordi
Gorges-beaulieu
Emelin Markov

Price

Drool
I agree with what you're saying.

Now let me fix that lineup a bit?

Gionta-Grigorenko-Cole
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Eller
Leblanc-Plekanec-Bourque
White-Geoffrion-Moen

Defense is really hard to figure out, because I expect lots of changes to the blueline in the offseason. The first pairing will likely still remain Gorges-Subban because there's no reason to separate them, they complement each other very well. Markov will stay as well, we're seeing flashes of his past dominance, Emelin is staying too we need a rough D-man like him. But after that it gets blurry. Kaberle-Diaz-Weber-Tinordi-Beaulieu-St.Denis-Campoli... wow that's a lot of NHL ready talent to sort through.

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Old
04-06-2012, 02:01 PM
  #982
Roulin
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
Why would the Bolts be worried about Stamkos ELC ? Most of your examples of teams burning a year are moot since these players will be locked up long term anyways and the advantages of having them earlier do help the team in the immediate future.

And who cares if players like KANE if they burnt a year on a non-playoff team ???? Certainly did not effect his ability to score OT to win the Hawks a cup.

I think your argument holds truth for mid to late round picks... Not top 4.
Kane was 20 when Chicago won the Cup, he would have been pro by then anyway. The Hawks certainly would've liked to have another year of PKane at an ELC cap hit. Instead they had to sell off half of their team.

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Old
04-06-2012, 02:20 PM
  #983
Em Ancien
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Originally Posted by SOLR View Post
2010 first? That's pretty revisionist. I don't think he's ahead of Gudbranson and he's certainly after Skinner. Granted a team could need a D like Murray, but on a pure ranking basis I think 2010 is perfect example how he could be picked 10th(McIlrath) or 12th.(Cam Fowler)

2011, since you agree that Larsson is ahead...he's probably picked 9th(Dougie Hamilton...) or 10th(Brodin). Just not sure how I would rank Murray or Hamilton differently.
I dunno about Gudbranson being better, and I really like Guds.

People are underrating Murray a lot, people will look back on this draft and wonder how he flew under the radar. It's fairly rare for defensemen to make the U18 squad as a 16- and 17-year old, then the WJC squad as an 18-year old, and he managed to do it.

I think he's the 3rd best player in this draft, he might be a bit farther if I had something tangible to work with for Forsberg and Galchenyuk, but it's not because Murray isn't in their class.

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