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11/12 Eastern Conference Standings Predictions

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Old
08-26-2011, 12:44 PM
  #76
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1. Habs
2-15. Don't care

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Old
08-26-2011, 01:34 PM
  #77
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1) craps they are a good season team but they will fold again in the playoffs until they can get a better leader. ovy is not a leader.
2) pittsburgh even without crosby or with him they are still a good team.
3) boston they wont have as many pts as last year but the are still a talented team. thomas isnt young so rask will play an important role.
4) tampabay stilled and like washington has a lot of fire power for the reg season.
5) newyork rangers. richards will help and lundqvist is always a rock.
6) montreal. having markov and gorges for a full year will really help. it will help subban out a lot too to play less minutes and focus on his d so he can be an all around player.
7) philly. being without carter and richards will hurt. but brzgalov is a good goalie and can only be an improvement over boucher and leighton and the russian guy bob......
8) it will be right down to the final week in my opinion between canes and sabres im not big on leino hes a good player but not worth as much as the sabres signed him for but they are still a decent team and has a top 3 goalie in the league. with ward s another but i think buffalo will win this.
9)carolina
10) as much as i dislike toronto they have improved for this season on paper anyways. lombardi is an unknown but he is quick and has hands. franson i dont know how they snagged him but good steal by burke. but reimer is too much of an unknown sure he played good down the stretch but the leafs were already out of the race and when they seemed close he couldnt do it himself obviously he was a rookie.
11) newjersey brodeur is not the hall of fame marty anymore. they need to draft a quality goalie in the next draft if there is any. parise will be back that will help and they need kovy to play from the start of the season not just when they a re last and ruin there draft position.
12) winnipeg. i dont understand any of winnipegs moves this offseason. they have an alright core but not anything special.
13) newyork islanders. tavares is on an island no pun intended all by himself. god only knows how many games dipietro will play in. this franchise has no future and this will another nonplayoff year.
14) florida sure they brought in a ton of free agents but they are all fringe players well maybe a bit better than fringe. thats why there old teams didnt want to match. either way the other teams in front of them either improved or for the better stayed the same.
15) ottawa. unlike florida they are trying to do it from within but it will take awhile. but there is a future here but they a few years away. lehner is a stud at they got something out of leclaire.
* nyi, cats or ottawa can switch.
same as habs, flyers and rags. the others i believe will stay where they are.

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Old
08-26-2011, 01:52 PM
  #78
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Can someone add up how many points (G&A) the Flyers lost in Carter, Richards, Leino, etc... And how many they brought in from their younger players please. I am on my phone and can't do it. I think it will be very interesting, it might cause neofeury to rethink that the Flyers won't regress slightly, especially when you factor their division rivals all making improvements, NYR add Richards, Pens will much likely see Malkin have a big bounce back year and Tavarres should continue to improve slightly.

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08-26-2011, 02:08 PM
  #79
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1. Washington
2. Buffalo
3. Philadelphia
4. Tampa Bay
5. Montreal
6. Boston
7. Pittsburgh
8. New Jersey
------------------
9. New York Rangers
10. Carolina
11. New York Islanders
12. Toronto
13. Winnipeg
14. Florida
15. Ottawa

Might flip Philly and Pittsburgh

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Old
08-26-2011, 02:18 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Can someone add up how many points (G&A) the Flyers lost in Carter, Richards, Leino, etc... And how many they brought in from their younger players please. I am on my phone and can't do it. I think it will be very interesting, it might cause neofeury to rethink that the Flyers won't regress slightly, especially when you factor their division rivals all making improvements, NYR add Richards, Pens will much likely see Malkin have a big bounce back year and Tavarres should continue to improve slightly.
The problem with doing this is that goals & assists do not give you an entirely clear picture. The even-strength points from Richards and Carter will be hard to replace because they got those points playing against very good players.

Leino's "production" is easier to replace because he did it against weaker opposition and starting in the offensive zone more often, but Philly may not be able to have their 3rd line play in similar situations this year because of the lost of Richards & Carter.

Then you have to factor in the lower production you would expect from Giroux playing against better players (offset at least in part by expecting Giroux to continue to develop, which he should) and the drop in production from Briere going from extremely favourable circumstances to tougher circumstances.

The Flyers didn't go out and get exact replacements for Richards and Carter who played in similar circumstances in the past, so it's really hard to make a simple yet reasonable projection as to what will happen. When you look at the context behind the points of the players departing, players remaining, and player brought in it muddles things up a fair bit.

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Old
08-26-2011, 02:37 PM
  #81
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1 Washington
2 Pittsburg
3 Boston
4 Philadelphia
5 Tampa Bay
6 Buffalo
7 Montréal
8 NYR

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Old
08-26-2011, 05:06 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
The problem with doing this is that goals & assists do not give you an entirely clear picture. The even-strength points from Richards and Carter will be hard to replace because they got those points playing against very good players.

Leino's "production" is easier to replace because he did it against weaker opposition and starting in the offensive zone more often, but Philly may not be able to have their 3rd line play in similar situations this year because of the lost of Richards & Carter.

Then you have to factor in the lower production you would expect from Giroux playing against better players (offset at least in part by expecting Giroux to continue to develop, which he should) and the drop in production from Briere going from extremely favourable circumstances to tougher circumstances.

The Flyers didn't go out and get exact replacements for Richards and Carter who played in similar circumstances in the past, so it's really hard to make a simple yet reasonable projection as to what will happen. When you look at the context behind the points of the players departing, players remaining, and player brought in it muddles things up a fair bit.
I agree its not perfect but I think it gives a solid indication of what they lost.

I'm on a computer, so I'll give it a whirl since everyone else who is bored, is too lazy.

Carter 36g 30a 66
Richards 23g 43a 66
Leino 19g 34a 53

78 goals, 107 assists 185 points

They had 259 goals last year, so they lost 30% of their production in goals.

Jakub Voracek 14g 32a 46
Wayne Simmonds 14g 16a 30
Jagomir Jagr 25g 40a 65
Braedenn Schenn 10g 20a 30 (I made these up based on his 8 game total)

63g 108a 171 points

I guess its not so bad. I don't see them finishing 2nd in the conference but I think they definitely fall somewhat.

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Old
08-26-2011, 05:17 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I agree its not perfect but I think it gives a solid indication of what they lost.

I'm on a computer, so I'll give it a whirl since everyone else who is bored, is too lazy.

Carter 36g 30a 66
Richards 23g 43a 66
Leino 19g 34a 53

78 goals, 107 assists 185 points

They had 259 goals last year, so they lost 30% of their production in goals.

Jakub Voracek 14g 32a 46
Wayne Simmonds 14g 16a 30
Jagomir Jagr 25g 40a 65
Braedenn Schenn 10g 20a 30 (I made these up based on his 8 game total)

63g 108a 171 points

I guess its not so bad. I don't see them finishing 2nd in the conference but I think they definitely fall somewhat.
What are you basing Jagr's numbers on? Not that they're total unreasonable but translation from the KHL is a bit murky since there aren't any good comparables for a guy like Jagr coming to the NHL.

The bigger issue is that Philadelphia lost the heart of their tough opposition ES offense while none of the guys coming in played that kind of role in the NHL. This will result in a loss of scoring efficency across the board as everyone plays a tougher role across the board. The effect on goals against will probably be bigger that the effect on goals for though (As Mathman pointed out they shouldn't expect to have much better goaltending.)

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Old
08-26-2011, 06:04 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I agree its not perfect but I think it gives a solid indication of what they lost.

I'm on a computer, so I'll give it a whirl since everyone else who is bored, is too lazy.

Carter 36g 30a 66
Richards 23g 43a 66
Leino 19g 34a 53

78 goals, 107 assists 185 points

They had 259 goals last year, so they lost 30% of their production in goals.

Jakub Voracek 14g 32a 46
Wayne Simmonds 14g 16a 30
Jagomir Jagr 25g 40a 65
Braedenn Schenn 10g 20a 30 (I made these up based on his 8 game total)

63g 108a 171 points

I guess its not so bad. I don't see them finishing 2nd in the conference but I think they definitely fall somewhat.
So a 15-goal drop isn't a bad baseline.

Let's take that 15-goals and then let's consider the knock-on effects due to the changes in depth... I'm going to ignore the points to simplify things... even though I said earlier that simple= bad. So if you'll indulge me in my hypocrisy, taking a look at three players expected to take on bigger roles for the Flyers next season (Giroux, Briere, Hartnell). Wall of text to follow...

Giroux is going to basically go from 2nd-line opposition to 1st-line opposition at even-strength, which means it will be difficult for him to score d). Looking at his goals total I would guess a drop of about 5 goals from the more difficult opposition, though he may make some of that back in development. His shooting percentage last year was on the high-side as well, but that's another issue. Call it -2 goals for Giroux from the tougher opposition balanced out by him continuing to develop.

So Giroux in a tougher situation = -2 goals

Briere is where it's going to really hurt the Flyers (unless Schenn is ready to handle 2nd-line opposition, which seems unlikely). He was in the perfect offensive situation last year and put up 28 even-strength goals playing largely against what would be classified as 3rd-line opposition. I'm personally expecting his goals/assists to drop massively (up to 10G and 10A) from the more difficult opposition He'll also be 34 at the start of the season which won't help.

For Briere, I'm going to go with -9 goals. You may make I'm crazy, but -7 to -14 seems about right to me considering the more difficult situations he's likely to find himself in and his increasing age.

Finally, Scott Hartnell. Everything I said about Briere (except the massive drop and the age thing) applies to Hartnell... with similar shooting percentage concerns as Giroux. He's only 30 years old though and has been a consistant 20-goal+ guy through his career. I want to say we'll see a drop but I think he'll manage around 20-goals in the goal department which is just fine. The points will drop a bit but we're not looking at the points.

Say an optimistic no goal decrease for Hartnell since he's just entering his 30s.

If everything I've said is reasonable you're looking at an extra 10-goal drop to existing Flyers due to the changing roles. Mind you, I expect Voracek in particular to take fairly big strides (20 goals if he gets PP time is reasonable) but the effects of the trades are bigger than the straight swap of players.

The worst part (for the Flyers) is we're looking only at the offensive side of the game. Richards is a better defensive forward than Giroux (though Giroux is good) and Carter is a whole let better defensively than Briere. What little gains they make in goal may be lost in their team defense being worse next season.

It's hard to believe the Flyers took what was basically a cup-contending team (if they would stop trying to play with goalies like Boucher or Leighton) and dismantled it. I see them like a lot of others, as a bubble team but if Pronger misses time I think they miss the playoffs.

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Old
08-27-2011, 04:47 AM
  #85
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I agree, the Flyers have taken a step back, and if they get an injury to Giroux, or JVR there goes the offense...must have been major havoc in the room to do what they did with Richie and Carter...
Since it turns out Richie and Get Carter are party animals, and they did not win a cup in Phillie, I'm starting to feel a bit better about the Draft From Hell. I mean, Imagine Richie and Get Carter in MTL? Jail within 2 years by the sound of it.

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08-27-2011, 01:01 PM
  #86
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What are you basing Jagr's numbers on? Not that they're total unreasonable but translation from the KHL is a bit murky since there aren't any good comparables for a guy like Jagr coming to the NHL.

The bigger issue is that Philadelphia lost the heart of their tough opposition ES offense while none of the guys coming in played that kind of role in the NHL. This will result in a loss of scoring efficency across the board as everyone plays a tougher role across the board. The effect on goals against will probably be bigger that the effect on goals for though (As Mathman pointed out they shouldn't expect to have much better goaltending.)
I based my Jagr numbers based on his career NHL numbers. He's been consistently above 70 points even during all of his lousy / bad attitude years, then I lowered them based on age. I think they are conservative given the fact that health & attitude wise he seems to be rejuvinated similar to how Selanne got rejuvinated a few years ago. They would be outlandish if I put 40 goals up there, even though 40 is in the realm of possibility playing with Giroux who put up better numbers than Carter or Richards last year.

But I think you need to work on your analysis skills when trying to refute my post. The entire point of my post was to show that I think Philly wil do worse this year. Except it wasn't as bad as I initially thought, losing 15 goals will have an impact but not nearly as much as losing 50ish which is what it looks like if you think about losing Carter and Richards on the surface.

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08-27-2011, 01:12 PM
  #87
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1. Habs
2-15. Don't care
Pretty much how I feel.

As long as the Habs are comfortably in the playoffs and healthy, then I'm happy.

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04-07-2012, 01:23 AM
  #88
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time for owning up...

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Top-4 group: Serious Cup Contenders and Playoff locks


1- Washington
a veteran netminder of vokoun's caliber can bring up the whole teams level of play, ward/hamrlik/halpern are perfect additions to their young talented team.

2- Boston
i may hate the Bruins, but i think they are a team that will carry the swagger of being cup champions, horton is apparently ready to go and they still have a talented group of young fwds that should only be better this year (Krecj, Bergeron, Lucic, Seguin, Marchand...)

3- Philly
Bryz lifted the Yotes from the basement to the playoffs, he should lift the revamped flyers back to the top of their division. Pronger/Laviolette will control the room keeping everyone on the same page and despite their moves, they still have the deepest collection of fwd talent in the league

4- Pittsburgh
if they stay healthy, will challenge for conference title, Crosby's ? knocks them down a few pegs


5-9 Group: playoff locks, could contend for div title if things go well, but team that suffers worse luck/injury problems will fall out of playoffs


5- Buffalo
might take them a bit of time to gel (but Ruff is the kind of coach to make that a quick transition), but they are probably the most improved team in the conference (with Washington). even without big stars(vanek/miller being only established elite talent), their fwd group is deep and talented, their defense is well-balanced, and Miller is among the leagues best in nets.

6- New Jersey
i think 2nd half was closer reflection to their potential, getting Parise back and Kovalchuk acclimatized should make them a very dangerous team, Brodeur will be ultra-motivated b/c he's close to the finish line(would have them higher, but their division will be toughest in the league, which will cost them points... swap them with Pitt if Crosby/Malkin are slowed by injuries).

7- Montreal
Price (supported by Martin's system) will continue to carry this team. If Eller/DD step up and solve centre depth issue and Cole/MaxPac help fix 5on5 scoring problems, we could contend with the top teams, but ultimately we are still far too thin in terms of reliable offensive talent (and "toughness") to be a contender.

8- Tampa Bay
Boucher will continue to get the most out of this group, but imo goaltending is a ?, can rolosson repeat last year's regular season heroics or will father time catch up to him...

9- New York Rangers
if Richards is/remains healthy, they could easily make the playoffs, but if not (or if Gaborik hits the IR yet again), they don't have the top-end talent to survive the toughest division in hockey imo. Lundqvist + a talented young defense is still their biggest strength.

10-13 group: not likely to make playoffs unless everything goes well AND a few teams above really struggle


10- Florida
if I had to pick a dark-horse to surprise and make the playoffs, I'd go with Florida... no elite talent but lots of solid depth, but with a rookie coach, getting everyone playing on the same page will take time.

11- Toronto
they are to thin up front to be a playoff lock, and Reimer will be a ? until he proves himself over a full season+. My prediction- they will stumble in the first 1/2, finally fire Wilson, and then go on a tear and miss the playoffs despite a big deadline acquisition by Burke.

12- Winnipeg
positive buzz will carry them through early goings, but ultimately the lack of depth up front and relying on too much youth will keep them on the outside looking in.

13- Carolina
last year they suffered virtually no serious injuries, and got solid seasons from all their key-personnel (not too mention Skinner's surprise explosion) and still missed the playoffs... unlikely that they will be that lucky again, losing Cole will hurt, and Kaberle won't be enough to lift them any higher.

14-15: basement teams

14- NY Islanders
did not improve their roster externally (reasoner is a nice depth player, that's it), and while getting Streit and Okposo back for full season will help, they are still far to thin to deal with injuries and every team in their division will be as good or better than last year... another lottery pick is the best they can hope for

15- Ottawa
looking at their moves (or lack thereof), i think the internal plan is to stay in the lottery pick range for one more year... Konopka, Filatov & Auld aren't exactly the kind of players that will lift a basement team into playoff contention. counting on Spezza/Alfredsson/Michalek to stay healthy and carry the offense is optimistic at best.


15-
5 for 8 in terms of playoff teams...

way off on Washington (though looks like they had just about everyone fooled), and on Ottawa (again, seemed like a pretty "consensus" pick for basement fodder... i bet even among their own fans).

I bolded the comments that were pretty close/spot on, and underlined the comments that were way off.

interesting to see how things play out vs. how one predicts they will.

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Old
04-07-2012, 01:31 AM
  #89
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5 for 8 in terms of playoff teams...

way off on Washington (though looks like they had just about everyone fooled), and on Ottawa (again, seemed like a pretty "consensus" pick for basement fodder... i bet even among their own fans).

I bolded the comments that were pretty close/spot on, and underlined the comments that were way off.

interesting to see how things play out vs. how one predicts they will.
I don't blame anyone on inaccurate predictions on the East this year. 4 formerly competitive teams fell through the floor (Montreal, Tampa, Buffalo, Washington) at the same time which meant tons of teams that you wouldn't expect to be in it had a chance and the top teams that didn't collapse ran roughshod over everyone else.

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04-07-2012, 01:51 AM
  #90
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1) Tampa Bay*
2) New Jersey*
3) Montreal*
4) Washington
5) Pittsburgh
6) Buffalo
7) Philadelphia
8) Boston
9) Carolina
10) New York Rangers
11) Toronto
12) Florida
13) Winnipeg
14) New York Islanders
15) Ottawa

* = division winners
at the bolded ones

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04-07-2012, 02:07 AM
  #91
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Lol!

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04-07-2012, 03:14 AM
  #92
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I guess it would be normal to wait till after the playoffs draft and UFA market and even the pre-season to do this but here's my 12-13 very, very, very early prediction.

1. Pittsburgh
2. Ottawa
3. Winnipeg
4. Rangers
5. Boston
6. Philadelphia
7. Florida
8. Montreal
9. Washington
10. Tampa Bay
11. Toronto
12. N.Y Islanders
13. New Jersey
14. Carolina
15. Buffalo

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Old
04-07-2012, 04:19 AM
  #93
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Its always fun looking back. I had the sens, panthers, and devils out of the playoffs. I had NJ as a bubble team so I'm not surprised about them, but the sens and panthers were huge surprises.

I thought the habs would be fighting for the division. Although, the assumption at the time was that markov would not miss many games, and the habs would not have another year with a boatload of injuries to key players. I maintain that if you dont make one single move this off season, the team should still finish higher than they did this season. There were too many underachievers on the team this year and no real direction from management.

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04-07-2012, 04:28 AM
  #94
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Ugh, that long Philadelphia-centric post of mine is right there. Everybody cover your eyes.

I really underestimated their forward depth and Giroux performed better than I expected (Putting up offensive-dynamo numbers in a two-way role rather than merely Plekanec numbers in a two-way role. Giroux, Talbot, and Courturier (what a season he's had) easily handled some tough defensive minutes and the other forwards were able to reap the rewards. They survived losing Pronger and I said they would miss the playoffs if that happened.

Edit: I wasn't too far off on Briere, goal total down by a lot along with his shots (some bad luck on the percentages). Completely out to sea with Hartnell potting 37 (50 more shots and a shooting % of 16.2 when his career is 11.4. If he didn't have a NTC he'd be an excellent sell high candidate because of the % increase). Voracek with 18 which is in the neighbourhood. At the team level I was completely wrong).

It doesn't look like I made standings predictions in the thread but I would have come out badly. I didn't expect the Habs season to be as horrible and insane as it was, ditto for Tampa with all their injuries on defense. Washington would have been up there (probably winning the SouthEast for me) but some bad percentage luck and then the coaching change killed them off. Those three would have all been in my top-6 in the conference.

I also didn't see Ottawa coming and Florida making the playoffs (even though they're probably the worst team to make the playoffs in at least the last 15 years) is shocking.

Hopefully I remember to actually make standings predictions for next year, though that Philly post is bad enough.


Last edited by Roke: 04-07-2012 at 04:37 AM.
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04-07-2012, 05:08 AM
  #95
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Some sports` site (TSN ?) predicted Habs taking the East I believe.

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04-07-2012, 08:39 AM
  #96
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Some sports` site (TSN ?) predicted Habs taking the East I believe.
I think Bobby mac said they could go to the cup finals.

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04-07-2012, 09:41 AM
  #97
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I think Bobby mac said they could go to the cup finals.
Yah. He basically said that they were a team that could just as easily miss the playoffs as make it, but that if they did get in, he wouldn't be surprised to see them go far. They were basically his darkhorse pick. What a dark...dark...horse they've been this season.

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04-07-2012, 10:47 AM
  #98
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If we stay healthy, I see us as high as 5th but if we end up banged up like last year then it's a fight for 8th place.
I got the banged up part right.

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04-07-2012, 11:03 AM
  #99
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Brisebois and ciccone from tva sports were rights they predicted no playoff for the habs

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04-07-2012, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMMR View Post
I think Bobby mac said they could go to the cup finals.
Bobby Mac ? Noooooo. the guy is GOD on this board. He is sooo flawless...........

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