Before the 2022-2023 season ends, will we have seen a 70 goal scorer?
Mario Lemieux was the last guy to come close with 69 in 95-96 playing 70 games ( safe to safe he would have broke 70 had he played even just 5 more games ).
Selanne and Mogilny were the last to break through with 76 a piece in 92-93. So yes, it will be 20 years come next season that the league has been without a 70 goal scorer.
Stamkos has the best shot. I don't think he'll get 70 unless rule changes or some other significant event happens.
Apart from him...it'll have to be someone who is not in the NHL yet as I don't think Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuck, Perry, etc can hit 70 (again, unless there are some major changes).
That's a huge number to reach, and honestly I don't see it happening. When Ovi was tearing it up it seemed possible. Stamkos has shown that he can put up some long runs where he scores goals in bunches, so if he can avoid a long drought (had a couple of 5 gamers this season), it's... possible. I would say without another rule change, it's not bloody likely, but of the active players you'd have to say Stamkos has the best shot.
Stamkos has the best shot. I don't think he'll get 70 unless rule changes or some other significant event happens.
Apart from him...it'll have to be someone who is not in the NHL yet as I don't think Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuck, Perry, etc can hit 70 (again, unless there are some major changes).
why? and if anybody can do it its going to be stamkos with a legit set up man or crosby on the top of his game.
Stamkos is at 59 and could potentially hit 60/61 today. Keep in mind this is the kid who spent the off-season training his ass off to become a better all around player.
There's no doubt in my mind that he has it in him to put up 65+ goals next year. Another off-season training hard. Another year of growing stronger and faster. He's in his goal scoring peak right now (traditionally 21-24) so it wouldn't surprise me to see him do better than this year.
Stamkos can do. Whether he does or not is another question, but he can certainly do it.
The trend has been towards a pretty steady decrease in scoring since the lockout, and if this trend continues, I think anyone hitting 70 is fairly unlikely, we're pretty much down to dead puck era scoring now (this year there's been 5.46 goals per game, in the "dead puck era" from 97/98 to 03/04 it ranged from 5.14 - 5.51 goals per game, compared to a ridiculous 8 or so goals per game through much of the 80s). However, if the NHL changes things up a bit to get more offense going (going back to aggressively calling all hooks/holds/interference, slightly smaller goalie equipment, etc.), then I could see 70 goals happening. Even as it is, it's not inconceivable that someone like Stamkos, Ovechkin or Malkin could get there, but if the current trend continues and goals per game continue to drop, it'll get more and more unlikely.
So basically, with the current trend of goal scoring decreasing league-wide every year, it's possible, but pretty unlikely. If the NHL takes steps to reverse this trend, then it becomes more likely for sure.
Not going to happen untill they do something about how big goalie pads are.
This. Goalies can whine all they want but I don't care. No goalie is going to suffer if they downsize equipment, everyone's stats should be pretty much equally affected. They won't get hurt any more either, there's plenty extra,padding is huge compared to the late 8o's, early 90's.
I would agree that these are the most likely to do it, all for various reasons but unless there are rule changes we are not even going to see 60 every year.
Post lockout we have seen 60 goals exactly 2 times and 4 of the top 10 were in 06 which was an aberration with players getting used to the post lockout rules.
How 40% of people think this is going to happen is beyond me.
In 7 post lockout seasons we have exactly 17 50 goal seasons period and if we take it after 06 and do it from 07-12 its only 12 guys in 6 seasons breaking 50.
I think Stamkos can do it if he goes on the kind of early run he did last season when he scored 19 goals in his first 19 games. This year he didn't score his 19th goal until his 31st game, he woulda had to score at a goal-per-game pace the rest of the way. It's critical he gives himself an early start and maintain consistency. It would have to be the perfect season.
The game will adapt to the low scoring over the next decade (whether it be changes with the net, playing style, increased power play opportunities) so yes.
Which I don't see happening....
