Last year, when we signed him. Most skeptics said the some of the following:
-too old
-injured and never played as good since
-only plays good with Staal
Well, I think this season so far proved he's still got plenty talent in him and doesn't Staal after all. I think he can put similar numbers. I don't know if it'll be as many or less. But clearly, him being in Montreal makes him want to play. He's a real Hab at heart. I think he can do better, but that depends on how the rest of the team plays as a hole.
I'm getting sick of hearing this... he's the team's ironman with close to 200 straight games played.
So?
Fact is, every team suffers injuries. Given Cole's age, style, and his past struggles with them, he could very well miss some games next year.
Nothing crazy here.
Outside of that, I expect our winger depth to improve, so it shouldn't just be about MaxPac and Cole next season. This year, those two have had favorable match ups, offensive zone starts, and pretty much always started on our PP on the top unit.
So, I can see Cole having another good year, but it wouldn't surprise me if his production dropped a bit.
This season included no less than two lengthy cold streaks for Cole by my count. His production was dog-**** for the first 11 games of the season, and somewhere around late january, early feb he had a long goalless drought, about the time when Patches overtook him for team goal lead.
So, I don't think it's impossible for him to repeat, or get similar numbers. If he gets an injury, that'll obviously reduce his production. However, barring anything too serious, I think it's quite likely we'll see "similar" production in the future.
I don't expect 35 goals from him, but somewhere not too far away from 30 seems about right.
If he stays at 3 shots per game then he should be around 30 goals each year. Thing is, he's not likely to get as favourable of matchups and as high a position in the powerplay depth chart every year. I expect him to be 25+ goals and 50+ points in a healthy season even if his role changes. He's the rare kind of player that can get .5 even strength points per game in a tough minute role.
Last year, when we signed him. Most skeptics said the some of the following:
-too old
-injured and never played as good since
-only plays good with Staal
Well, I think this season so far proved he's still got plenty talent in him and doesn't Staal after all. I think he can put similar numbers. I don't know if it'll be as many or less. But clearly, him being in Montreal makes him want to play. He's a real Hab at heart. I think he can do better, but that depends on how the rest of the team plays as a hole.
as it turns out, staal was slowing cole down ...
like another poster said.... these guys had such a strong 5 on 5 game this year, its hard to believe we're 15th. One of the best 5 on 5 lines Ive seen here in a long time. Can't imagine having a working PP, that alone takes us to a playoff battle if not a playoff spot. find decent wingers for plek and stay healthy in the back with improving dmans ... and we are right back at it next year.
I find it hard to fathom that this guy only averaged 22 goals per game in his last 3 healthy seasons.
His shooting percentage was 14.5% and in his two best previous goal scoring years 2005-06 and 2006-07 he scored 30 goals (18.3%) and 29 goals (17.5%).
His ice time was 18:31 this year vs. 19:17 (05-06) and 18:01 (06-07).
Ice time about matches his career best averages, but shooting percentage doesn't. That could be a function of having a pass happy and rare shooting center (DD) who generated more shot opportunities for him.
I'd like to see his breakdown his last half season. It would probably suggest an even higher number than 35.
He seems like a very committed player and would seem unlikely to take his performance for granted and slack off on his off ice regiment and fall into an "I've accomplished enough" mode which could occur with a player with less character than
Cole.
I find it hard to fathom that this guy only averaged 22 goals per game in his last 3 healthy seasons.
His shooting percentage was 14.5% and in his two best previous goal scoring years 2005-06 and 2006-07 he scored 30 goals (18.3%) and 29 goals (17.5%).
His ice time was 18:31 this year vs. 19:17 (05-06) and 18:01 (06-07).
Ice time about matches his career best averages, but shooting percentage doesn't. That could be a function of having a pass happy and rare shooting center (DD) who generated more shot opportunities for him.
I'd like to see his breakdown his last half season. It would probably suggest an even higher number than 35.
He seems like a very committed player and would seem unlikely to take his performance for granted and slack off on his off ice regiment and fall into an "I've accomplished enough" mode which could occur with a player with less character than
Cole.
He and Staal were Carolina's primary matchup line, much line Plekanec-Cammalleri had been for Montreal. Which limited his offensive potential somewhat. He also has historically been very weak on the powerplay for a top-six. His goals there this season are atypical for him.
He and Staal were Carolina's primary matchup line, much line Plekanec-Cammalleri had been for Montreal. Which limited his offensive potential somewhat. He also has historically been very weak on the powerplay for a top-six. His goals there this season are atypical for him.
Given that he had previously 29 and 30 goal seasons, it doesn't even suggest that 35 goals is his top possible production. A five goal improvement, roughly 16% over one's best previous output doesn't suggest something which I would categorize as extraordinary. Had he scored 45 (a 50% improvement over his previous best), then that would be the case.
He's on a new team and with new line mates. His top goal production prior to this season was 5 years ago. Players improve. Situations change. He may have just hit his peak. It's often hard to pinpoint an exact reason for individual improvement. I wonder if Cole really knows exactly why this season worked out as well as it did.
I have no idea how he was exactly utilized in his former peak goal scoring years. Staal had 100 points to Cole's 59 in 05-06, so I wouldn't be so sure that they were even on the same line as the point differential would suggest (not prove) otherwise.
He had 9 PP goals in 06-07 and 10 in 07-08. He had 11 PP goals this year, so this season's production couldn't be considered abnormal for him. I would project even more next season given the fact that the Habs power play was so abysmal for the first half season and that the additions of Markov and Kaberle would make a repeat of that early season performance unlikely.
Player performances over a career aren't static. Some players get worse when one doesn't project them (Gomez); others get better (Cole).
As I stated in my original post, it's hard for me to fathom that Cole only scored 22 goals per season on average in his past 3 healthy seasons. Rene Borque has averaged 23 goals per season in his past 4 years and that just appears to me to be something north of impossible based upon what I saw this year.
Given that Cole wasn't even near his top shooting percentage numbers, that his two probable linemates for next season can be expected to improve, and that the PP should be better than third to last next season, I can't see much of a reason to reasonably project his production to drop much, if any.
Last edited by Cyclones Rock: 04-08-2012 at 02:39 PM.
