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Players value in first-round picks (Comparison tool)
Players value in first-round picks (Comparison tool)
It's always difficult to compare the value of players playing different positions. So I figured it could be useful to weight the value of players in first-round picks (and other picks if needed) as a way to compare value. Once the value has been established, it's a matter of team needs to make a trade works. In other words, once you take the value out of the equation, making a trade works should be easier.
For example:
The highest RFA draft pick compensation in 2011-12 was 4 first-round picks ($7,835,219 and higher) meaning the most a RFA should pull in value is 4*1st (Granted, offer can be match when a team does not need 4*1st, see Vanek).
Wayne Gretzky was traded for five 1st on at least one occasion plus 15 million in cash (2 players, 3*1st, $15M)
Chris Pronger was traded for 4*1st on at least one occasion (2 players, 2*1st) and 4*1st and a 3rd on another (2 players, 2*1st + 1*3rd).
Mike Fisher was traded for a 1st and a 3rd.
In other words, if Mike Fisher had been part of the latest Chris Pronger trade, the Sens would have had to add 3*1st picks.
Say we establish the value of Staal, E. to be at 4*1st (2012). Then a swap with Chris Pronger (2006) would have been possible, value-wise. However, Carolina would have had to add a 3rd for Pronger (2009).
Anyone wanna help establishing these values? I'll start and say Staal, E. (2012) is worth 4 * 1st.
Eric Staal himself is not worth four first round picks. Bad benchmark, nor is the value of a first round pick static from year to year or pick to pick.
Eric Staal himself is not worth four first round picks. Bad benchmark, nor is the value of a first round pick static from year to year or pick to pick.
Depends on the first round pick. Alexei Yashin went for a first round pick and Zdeno Chara. Kris Versteeg went for a first round pick and a 3rd round pick last winter. Not even remotely the same thing because one first rounder was 2nd overall and the other was in the 20s. Pointless exercise.
Gretzky was essentially sold. Pocklington moved Gretzky to LA for the cash to help him avoid bankruptcy. The draft picks were like the toss in 7th round pick in a smaller deal.
Depends on the first round pick. Alexei Yashin went for a first round pick and Zdeno Chara. Kris Versteeg went for a first round pick and a 3rd round pick last winter. Not even remotely the same thing because one first rounder was 2nd overall and the other was in the 20s. Pointless exercise.
Ah, anger, path to the dark side.
The point of the exercise is not so much to go back and look at past trades but much more about trade offers on this board.
If you agree that player "x" is worth a 1st round pick
If you agree that player "y" is worth 2 1st round pick
Then player "y" is worth twice as much as player "x". Simple as that.
It doesn't matter if the first round pick is a 1st overall or a 15th overall. Get it? It's a relative value.
Gretzky was essentially sold. Pocklington moved Gretzky to LA for the cash to help him avoid bankruptcy. The draft picks were like the toss in 7th round pick in a smaller deal.
So you're confusing players who were already drafted with future draft picks? Carson had a 55 goal season before the trade, so his value was hardly the same as a "first round pick."
What would be the modern equivalent be? Kessel for 2 firsts and a 2nd. Or is it a 5th overall for a 2nd and a 9th? Makes no sense.
The point of the exercise is not so much to go back and look at past trades but much more about trade offers on this board.
If you agree that player "x" is worth a 1st round pick
If you agree that player "y" is worth 2 1st round pick
Then player "y" is worth twice as much as player "x". Simple as that.
It doesn't matter if the first round pick is a 1st overall or a 15th overall. Get it? It's a relative value.
No, I don't get it. All first round picks have different values, and that difference changes depending on the year. One draft teams will be throwing picks away, another they won't. The first overall could be swapped for a franchise player, a 15th overall might be in a package for a lesser player.
I'm not angry, I just think it's a pointless exercise with variables you don't even understand.
So you're confusing players who were already drafted with future draft picks? Carson had a 55 goal season before the trade, so his value was hardly the same as a "first round pick."
I thought that was clearly explained in the first post.
Would you say Gretzky was traded for 6 1st round pick then? or 7? You're getting there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen
What would be the modern equivalent be? Kessel for 2 firsts and a 2nd. Or is it a 5th overall for a 2nd and a 9th? Makes no sense.
I thought that was clearly explained in the first post.
Would you say Gretzky was traded for 6 1st round pick then? or 7? You're getting there.
No, Gretzky was traded for exactly what he was:
Gretzky, McSorley and Krushelnyski traded to the Kings for Carson, Martin Gelinas, $15 million in cash, and the Kings' first-round draft picks in 1989 (later traded to the New Jersey Devils – New Jersey selected Jason Miller), 1991 (Martin Rucinsky), and 1993 (Nick Stajduhar).
The fundamental problem with this thought exercise* is that first-round picks have differing values based on where they are in the first round. The 3rd overall and the 23rd overall are not equivalent.
Not only that, they differ from year to year. The #15 overall in 2004 (players available: Alexander Radulov (drafted), Petteri Nokelainen, Marek Schwarz, and eventually Travis Zajac) is not equivalent in value to the #15 overall in 2008 (players available: Erik Karlsson (drafted), Joe Colborne, Jake Gardiner, and eventually Jordan Eberle)
Therefore it is impractical to calculate value based on "number of 1sts", as "a 1st" is not actually a set value.
*: Granted, this is also a problem with many "it would take a 1st" assertions, but it's a bit more blatant here.
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Even an offer sheet would take this into consideration. If Columbus or the Red Wings signed say Erik Karlsson to a 10 year $100 million contract and the Senators had to decide whether to match it and get 4 first round picks in a row they would have to consider whether to match. They would think a lot longer matching Columbus's offer then if it was Detroit making the offer sheet. Hmmm four 20th to 30th overall first rounders from Detroit or far, far more likely to be lower draft picks if Columbus signed him.
It is why the Bruins dealt Kessel for two first rounders and another pick to Toronto, they probably didn't expect the 2nd overall pick to come back but they knew they were not going to be later first rounders.
Also it really depends when you are making the trade. On trade deadline day players have far different draft pick "values" then they do at other times of year. And on draft day draft picks have different values. When Karlsson was available at 15th and Ottawa wanted him and had targetted him and they moved up from 18th who knows how much they would have given up to move up those 3 spots? Could have been a ton. They wouldn't just arbitrarly pay nearly as much to move up 3 picks a month before the draft when they have no way of knowing who was there.
You could possibly judge "values" for different UFAs on deadline day with draft picks because most of the picks moved are 2nd or 3rds and late 1sts. And most of the players are expiring UFAs. They have comparable values. At any time besides draft day and deadline day there are not comparable values. You can "value" a 2nd round pick though a 31st overall pick is worth a lot more than a 59th overall pick the difference between them are far less then say the 3rd overall pick and the 24th overall pick.
Sorry but this is pretty flawed, don't go turning around with your immature responses about people being angry etc, things simply don't work the way you are imagining it.
