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04-10-2012, 12:53 PM
  #1
DuckJet
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My April mock (lottery scenarios too)

Again just for fun. I kinda crashed and burned on my two round mock. I did it in like 5 minutes. I thought for fun I'd do different mocks for certain team's winning to lottery and how that would affect the top 10.

CBJ wins

Nail Yakupov can't really see any situation where Howson drafts anyone other than Yakupov unless he intends to be fired. Could be like a last act of resignation. IDK. I'd say the odds of it happening are 1 in a million. Even if CBJ has an issue with Yakupov being Russian or playing a reckless style of hockey that could open the door to injuries, they'll at least trade down as initially rumored. I'm a firm believer that when a player is so very clearly the best player available, if for any reason the GM picking first doesn't want him he'll at least trade his pick to someone who does for more assets and give the player the recognition he deserves. As it stands I'm convinced they'll take Nail first overall if they have the chance. A line of Nash-Johansen-Yakupov (assuming Nash stays in lieu of CBJ drafting a potential superstar) would give fans, if not something to cheer for, something to be hopeful about.
Ryan Murray It would make sense for them to round out the top 6 by adding Grigorenko but this year Edmonton is poised to do quite a bit to improve their team. They have a top line worth building around through transactions now. (hopefully not ones as near-sighted and bloated as Hemsky for 5 million a year) it's time to address issues on the blueline and in net. Dubnyk is...all right. I think the jury is still out on him. EDM fans have a little too much faith in Bunz. I think with the 32cd overall pick Edmonton would be smart drafting one of Vasilevsky, Subban, or Dansk. At second overall, the difference between Murray and Grigorenko is not the same as Malkin and what's his name? The blueline needs help. Petry and Smid are the only guys that can be called something higher than mediocre. They're good and have upside...but they're not blueline cornerstones. You need a guy like Murray. A stabilizing force on the blueline, always responsible (I even thought the Russia game was a good display of his responsibility he just had the dumbest puck luck. His positioning and jump were perfect), a born leader. At worst he's a Jack Johnson and at best he's an Alex Pietrangelo. That's exactly what Edmonton needs now. Odds are, you guys aren't playoff bound next year. A center can be found next year as well. I think 2012 was the best draft for defensemen in recent years. 2013 is going to be phenomenal for forwards. Another top 10 finish and you guys can still score a Monahan, Shinkaruk, and Barkov. Murray should be the consensus pick for Edmonton right now.
Mikhail Grigorenko (people have made a strong case for Galchenyuk here, but i think just to appease the fans they'd take BPA and a guy already a sort of hometown hero for Quebec). I even heard some good arguments in favor of taking a winger instead (Forsberg), the logic was that Plekanec and Desharnais were adequate enough centers and Forsberg-Plekanec-Pacioretty would be sick. Problem with that is Plekanec isn't an elite level center, Forsberg's ETA could be 2-3 years, and the Habs need help now. Grigorenko very well could step into the lineup tomorrow if we were still playing hockey. And that's another line of logic that could make Mikhail>Gally in some GM's eyes. Grigorenko is NHL ready, any GM would be foolish not to send Galchenyuk back to the OHL. The Quebec-Grigorenko connection is just too strong. Only way I see Grigorenko in a jersey without a Habs logo on it is if Montreal wins the lottery, Edmonton picks him first, or if someone stitches another NHL logo on the front of his sweater as a prank.
Morgan Rielly...could easily be Dumba here but Rielly seems like a better fit now that I think about it. Plus with CSS rankings having a 7 spot gap in between the two, it might make the decision easier. Plus JT and Strome will probably justify passing on Galchenyuk. Anyway, Rielly is a powerplay beast, and he'll look great alongside Hamonic, and I can just see him making laser guided breakout passes to Tavares.
Alex Galchenyuk. I'd say there's only like a 10% chance he passes on Gally. His ass is on the line here and the Leafs are in desperate need of a center. And a goaltender too, but one of Dansk, Vasilevsky, or Subban should be available around 35. Forsberg wouldn't be the worst pick for them if he can play center as advertised, but it's better to go with Gally. The only other thing I see is MAYBE one of Murray, Trouba, or Dumba if they're available. Super unlikely, but...I mean we were convinced in 2008 that Burke would draft Tyler Myers and he traded down passing on Myers and Karlsson for Gardiner. This is also the man who couldn't even get a 7th round pick for Ilya Bryzgalov, traded Andy McDonald for Doug "dead" Weight, couldn't find us a second line center until he booked it for Toronto, and last draft I was convinced he'd use our 22cd pick to fill that center hole and take Zach Phillips (slam dunk missed)...crazier **** has happened with this guy.
Matt Dumba.
I wanna say Forsberg here, but Dumba makes too much sense to Murray. First of all, Dumba makes sense for this supposed diversity acquisition thing (Etem and DSP) and he'd be an excellent partner for Fowler. Plus Dumba's attitude is great, he hates to lose and the Ducks really respect character guys like that. Our blueline would look SICK if it looked like (let's just play nice and assume Schultz signs) Fowler-Dumba, Sbisa-Schultz, Beauchemin-Vatanen (switch in Brookbank if Schultz effs us).
Jacob Trouba
Don't see the wild taking a forward, especially a European right now, so I think they'd pass on Forsberg. They need D and they'll like the Minnesota connection. Trouba is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. A safe comparison is a slightly stronger Luca Sbisa, maybe an undersized version of PK Subban. But his upside IMHO is a undersized version of Shea Weber (undersized is used loosely when talking about Trouba).
Filip Forsberg
I could see Faksa here. Wouldn't shock me. But Forsberg in my honest opinion has high enough upside to get consideration for best 2012 forward when we look back in 5 years. Filip suffers from youth, playing in a B-league and not particularly dominating, and an expected long term ETA. Compared to Galchenyuk, Yakupov, and Grigorenko Forsberg has the highest bust potential. But he has more boom potential than anyone in the draft. Skinner and Forsberg could very well become a deadly duo in a few years.
Radek Faksa
Vinny won't be around forever. Not gonna imply that Faksa has elite center potential the way Galchenyuk does. Think someone like Mikki Koivu. Faksa might never scratch 60 points, but his value will be solidity in all 3 zones of the ice. Behind Stamkos, Faksa could easily be a great second pivot. I'd say Reinhart at this point is the BPA the thing is if Tampa wants a defender they better take someone who compliments Hedman, not overlaps. In my opinion, Hedman and Reinhart are practically the same player. They'd do well to take Ceci if they want D.
Griffin Reinhart
Seeing a bunch of Peg fans demand offense out of this draft. Some even hope the Jets will take Teravainen in the hope that he'll be Selanne 2.0. Jets management philosophy has been to be smart and safe. Reinhart is about as safe as it gets. Even if he doesn't become a star, he's still going to be a very serviceable player in a second pairing role. Ceci could work here, but with Enstrom and Byfuglien he'd just be redundant.

Note: if this rumor of Nash to TOR for 1st overall is true, first of all Burke is an idiot, second of all I'm 100% convinced that if Galchenyuk is there they'll pick him, and I think I'd just have to start being a Columbus fan. They can be my 5th team (ANA, WPG, CHI, PHI)


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Old
04-10-2012, 12:55 PM
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EDM wins: same players EDM gets Yakupov, CBJ takes Murray and so on.

MTL wins

MTL: Yakupov
CBJ: Murray
EDM: Dumba
NYI: Rielly
TOR: Grigorenko
ANA: Galchenyuk
MIN: Trouba
CAR: Forsberg
TBL: Rielly
WPG: Reinhart

NYI wins

NYI: Yakupov
CBJ: Murray
EDM: (I'll just switch it up here) Grigorenko
MTL: Galchenyuk
TOR: Forsberg
ANA: Dumba
MIN-WPG same

TOR wins:

TOR: Yakupov
CBJ: Dumba (now that I think about it Dumba makes sense as a Johnson partner)
EDM: Murray
MTL: Grigorenko
NYI: Rielly
ANA: Galchenyuk
MIN-WPG same

ANA wins
This'll be a weird one because personally I don't know how the Ducks feel about Grigorenko, I know that typically they value drive over skilled complacency so without the injury that would give Galchenyuk an edge. Forsberg is too much of a gamble at #2. Murray is basically Cam Fowler with lower offensive talent and higher defensive responsibility. Not saying we can't use him...but our blueline is for the most part set for the next few years. When Koivu's gone, all we've got behind Getzlaf is Holland and Bonino. I think Ducks nab a center if they go second overall. Maybe even trade down to 4 to get Galchenyuk and pick up another asset along the way. I want to consider how Anaheim will view it more than anything. If it was me, my pick would be Galchenyuk, but our scouting is very smart, and Grigorenko's overall talent will win out and he'll be second on Anaheim's draft board so...(unless Howson wants to make a bang and then retire by taking Grigorenko first overall, we'll take Yakupov in that case )

CBJ: Yakupov
ANA: Grigorenko
EDM: Murray
MTL: Galchenyuk
NYI: Dumba
TML: Forsberg
MIN-WPG same

MIN wins

CBJ: Yakupov
EDM: Murray
MIN: Galchenyuk
MTL: Grigorenko
NYI: Dumba
TOR: Forsberg
ANA: Trouba
CAR-WPG same

CAR wins

CBJ Yakupov
EDM: Murray
MTL: Grigorenko
CAR: Dumba
NYI: Rielly
TOR: Galchenyuk
ANA: Forsberg
MIN: Trouba
TBL: Faksa
WPG: Reinhart

TBL wins

CBJ Yakupov
EDM Murray
MTL Grigorenko
NYI Dumba
TBL Galchenyuk
TOR Forsberg
ANA Trouba
MIN Rielly or Teravainen
CAR Reinhart
WPG Collberg or Ceci

WPG wins

CBJ Yakupov
EDM Murray
MTL Grigorenko
NYI Dumba
TOR Galchenyuk
WPG Trouba (I want to say Forsberg here, but Filip is a bit of a gamble and WPG's goal is to play it safe and smart, besides the offense is doing just fine at the moment, they could use a guy like Trouba. It would be a different story if any of the above players were available, but Trouba is a smart and safe pick.)
ANA Forsberg
MIN Reinhart (probably should've given them G.F in the last scenario. Whatever)
CAR Faksa or Ceci
TBL Ceci or Faksa

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04-10-2012, 01:28 PM
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Half the time the Isles take Dumba with Reilly on the board, the other half the Isles take Reilly with Dumba on the board.

Regardless, the Isles have guys like Reilly waiting in Bridgeport (CDH, Ness, Donovan). If they do go defense, they'll go for someone with a more physical game.

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04-10-2012, 01:38 PM
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Half the time the Isles take Dumba with Reilly on the board, the other half the Isles take Reilly with Dumba on the board.

Regardless, the Isles have guys like Reilly waiting in Bridgeport (CDH, Ness, Donovan). If they do go defense, they'll go for someone with a more physical game.
Hahaha yeah I know I flip-flopped. I'm sorry I don't like Rielly very much at all, but I can recognize a top talent when I see one. Rielly>>De Haan.

But I do see where you're coming from. For all I know Rielly could be better than Fowler...probably not, but it's possible. I still think Rielly would be a bad idea when we already have Fowler, Visnovsky, Vatanen, and Schultz. So I do understand your point. That's why I flip-flopped. But with Snow...ya never know. That's the problem. I was convinced that at his worst fall Fowler would be an Islander cause that was who NYI needed. I was shocked to see El Nino.

And Rielly just seems more complimentary to Hamonic and Dumba seems more...overlapping. Same guy on the ice but better offensively. Maybe you could do it like

Hamonic-DeHaan
Dumba-...idk Macdonald?

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04-10-2012, 02:10 PM
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Hahaha yeah I know I flip-flopped. I'm sorry I don't like Rielly very much at all, but I can recognize a top talent when I see one. Rielly>>De Haan.

But I do see where you're coming from. For all I know Rielly could be better than Fowler...probably not, but it's possible. I still think Rielly would be a bad idea when we already have Fowler, Visnovsky, Vatanen, and Schultz. So I do understand your point. That's why I flip-flopped. But with Snow...ya never know. That's the problem. I was convinced that at his worst fall Fowler would be an Islander cause that was who NYI needed. I was shocked to see El Nino.

And Rielly just seems more complimentary to Hamonic and Dumba seems more...overlapping. Same guy on the ice but better offensively. Maybe you could do it like

Hamonic-DeHaan
Dumba-...idk Macdonald?
Snow's been pretty consistent, most fans still associate the Isles with the "anything can happen!" GMing of Milbury, but his first round drafting basically boils down to:

1. Who is the best forward available?
2. Who is the youngest forward available?

Although Isles fans would have liked to see Fowler instead of Nino (find the old Isles draft thread, when we went up to pick I was posting like a schoolgirl FOWLER! FOWLER!) and others wanted Hamilton over Strome, Garth picked the forward.

Now we're picking at worst 5th in a 6-player deep draft. Yakupov, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Gally, Murray, Dumba. I'd bet a fair deal of money that the Islanders leave the draft with one of those 6 players.

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04-10-2012, 02:13 PM
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If Carolina wins switch Dumba to Galchenyuk. Zero question in my mind on that one. We're pretty loaded on D, up front is where we need the help.

Would love to see Forsberg fall to #8. And even if that doesn't happen they'll still probably go with Faksa or Teravainen.

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04-10-2012, 02:22 PM
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If Carolina wins switch Dumba to Galchenyuk. Zero question in my mind on that one. We're pretty loaded on D, up front is where we need the help.

Would love to see Forsberg fall to #8. And even if that doesn't happen they'll still probably go with Faksa or Teravainen.
Brain fart. I thought that's how I already had it.

Teravainen is a bit of a wild card to warrant a #8 selection. In my opinion that would be poor asset management, but that's just me.

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04-10-2012, 02:23 PM
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There is no way the leafs pass up Forsberg

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04-10-2012, 02:28 PM
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There is no way the leafs pass up Forsberg
In comparison to who, Galchenyuk? Yes there is.

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04-10-2012, 02:47 PM
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There is no way the leafs pass up Forsberg
Lol. First there's no way they pass on Gally. Now Forsberg? Now I've seen it all.

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04-10-2012, 02:50 PM
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There's no way they pass on both. Burkie will work his magic.

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04-10-2012, 03:04 PM
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This is literally the first I've ever seen someone consider passing Galchenyuk for Forsberg. TML fans that is. Ive seen swedes say Filip deserves to go first overall

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04-10-2012, 03:05 PM
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PS. Mikki Koivu....

Also I'd rather see Wild pick Reinhart. As you mentioned he is safer pick and has the size that Trouba misses. We already have too many guys suffering from concussions. It's a nice mock and you can't be too far with these picks but then again you don't have all the 30 of the first round and the first 10 isn't that big of a challenge. I'd like to see you make it top15 or even top30 before the draft just for fun.

EDIT:

Messed up Trouba and Dumba. Which makes my first sentence kind of invalid and my point why Reinhart over Trouba. Thanks for the note Vsevolod Bobrov.


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04-10-2012, 03:09 PM
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Trouba does not lack size.

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04-10-2012, 03:19 PM
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I see you pretty much have WPG taking Reinhart. Could be a strong possibility. I think we'll end up going BPA but wouldn't be surprised if we take a forward at all. No idea which way we're leaning though.

Now if WPG wins the lottery that'll make it that much more interesting. I think Trouba would be a good pick and would allow them to take their time with developing him. Same can be said if we were to take Forsberg too.

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04-10-2012, 03:30 PM
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Super unlikely, but...I mean we were convinced in 2008 that Burke would draft Tyler Myers and he traded down passing on Myers and Karlsson for Gardiner. This is also the man who couldn't even get a 7th round pick for Ilya Bryzgalov, traded Andy McDonald for Doug "dead" Weight, couldn't find us a second line center until he booked it for Toronto, and last draft I was convinced he'd use our 22cd pick to fill that center hole and take Zach Phillips (slam dunk missed)...crazier **** has happened with this guy.

Note: if this rumor of Nash to TOR for 1st overall is true, first of all Burke is an idiot, second of all I'm 100% convinced that if Galchenyuk is there they'll pick him, and I think I'd just have to start being a Columbus fan. They can be my 5th team (ANA, WPG, CHI, PHI)
A little bitter, are we?

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04-10-2012, 03:45 PM
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Hahaha yeah I know I flip-flopped. I'm sorry I don't like Rielly very much at all, but I can recognize a top talent when I see one. Rielly>>De Haan.

But I do see where you're coming from. For all I know Rielly could be better than Fowler...probably not, but it's possible. I still think Rielly would be a bad idea when we already have Fowler, Visnovsky, Vatanen, and Schultz. So I do understand your point. That's why I flip-flopped. But with Snow...ya never know. That's the problem. I was convinced that at his worst fall Fowler would be an Islander cause that was who NYI needed. I was shocked to see El Nino.

And Rielly just seems more complimentary to Hamonic and Dumba seems more...overlapping. Same guy on the ice but better offensively. Maybe you could do it like

Hamonic-DeHaan
Dumba-...idk Macdonald?
I'd Personally rather see Rhienhart.

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04-10-2012, 04:01 PM
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I see you pretty much have WPG taking Reinhart. Could be a strong possibility. I think we'll end up going BPA but wouldn't be surprised if we take a forward at all. No idea which way we're leaning though.

Now if WPG wins the lottery that'll make it that much more interesting. I think Trouba would be a good pick and would allow them to take their time with developing him. Same can be said if we were to take Forsberg too.
Yeah ducks are in the same boat. We're pretty much under the impression that the choice will come down to Trouba and Forsberg. Both guys are projects but they both have huge upside.

I think the jets aren't lacking too severely in the lineup. They could use a little more depth and hopefully Burmi is more seasoned. The prospect pool though is pretty weak. Theres no position that is really needing more. The jets could go either way with a forward or defender, but I feel Trouba, Reinhart, Maata are more valuable to the Jets than Collberg and Teravainen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KrisBeKreame View Post
I'd Personally rather see Rhienhart.
Leaves Dumba to the ducks. Works for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by grits207 View Post
A little bitter, are we?
:Laugh: well it would seem that way. But the list I have on Murray is MUCH longer, and the Murray before him as well. Ha Murray 1.0 makes BB and BM look like saints.

Burke brought us a cup. His win now at any cost managerial style weakened us after he left but some team's don't even have cups let alone getting one in their 14th season of operation. I'm still thankful for him.


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04-10-2012, 04:18 PM
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PS. Mikki Koivu....

Also I'd rather see Wild pick Reinhart. As you mentioned he is safer pick and has the size that Trouba misses. We already have too many guys suffering from concussions. It's a nice mock and you can't be too far with these picks but then again you don't have all the 30 of the first round and the first 10 isn't that big of a challenge. I'd like to see you make it top15 or even top30 before the draft just for fun.

EDIT:

Messed up Trouba and Dumba. Which makes my first sentence kind of invalid and my point why Reinhart over Trouba. Thanks for the note Vsevolod Bobrov.
First of all I see mikko Koivu being Faksa's top out upside. The best he can do. That's more praise for mikko than for Radek. It's not impossible. They play a similar game.

Second, I see Trouba as a perfect fit for Minnesota. Reinhart has a lot of size but he doesn't do much to make good use of it. I've watched both players and I prefer Trouba.

Third: I'd like to do more teams, but this was more a pre-lottery idea and the top 10 as it was took a lot of thought. Top 30 gets a bit hazier. The first mock I did was just to say I made a mock. Even if I put all the thought in the world my picks will piss some people off. Idk I have to think about it.

Edit: had to double post, last post was too long for my iphone

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04-10-2012, 08:57 PM
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Eww.

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04-10-2012, 09:06 PM
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From Chevy's comments, I'm guessing the Jet's draft choice will be over 6' and play with "grit". admittedly that only eliminates a few of the top 20.

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04-10-2012, 10:31 PM
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From Chevy's comments, I'm guessing the Jet's draft choice will be over 6' and play with "grit". admittedly that only eliminates a few of the top 20.
I also managed to pull a boner on where Winnipeg was drafting.

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