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Speculation: Grigorenko to Edmonton. Is that even fair?

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Old
04-09-2012, 02:09 PM
  #226
AUAIOMRN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
For the sake of argument not as many defensemen are taken in the top 10 so you have a less of a sample size

Here is all the defensemen taken since 2000 in the first 10 picks

Klesla(4th), Lars Jonsson(7th), Komisarek(7th), Bouwmeester(3rd), Pitkanen(4th), Whitney(5th), Suter(7th), Coburn(8), Phaneuf(9th), Barker(3rd), Smid(9th), Valabik(10th), J Johnson(3rd), Lee(9th), Bourdon(10th), E Johnson(1st), Hickey(4th), Alzner(5th), Ellerby(10th), Doughty(2nd), Bogosian(3rd), Pietrangelo(4th), Schenn(5th), Hedman(2nd), Ekman-Larsson(6), Cowen(9th), Gudbranson(3rd), McIlrath(10th), Larsson(4th), Hamilton(9th), Brodin(10th)

Looking at if the team made the right pick or not the hit rate on defenseman is actually pretty good(it seems like forwards are more likely to bust on a whole)
I see a lot of above-average-at-best D on that list, and only a few top level guys. If Murray was a Pietrangelo of course the Oilers would take him, but it doesn't seem like he's near that level.

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04-09-2012, 02:14 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by victor View Post
I'm an Oilers fan, and I'd draft the best player available, and trade up, if feasible.

If Yakupov is the best player (and it appears that he is,) I'd try and add him to Edmonton's roster, regardless of the perceived holes.

At the start of last season, Edmonton's biggest weakness was a young, starting goalie. Now, it's a young, top pairing defender. Next year?
You might try but you'd get laughed at if you think anything not named Hall, Eberle, RNH would do the trick. No one is giving up Yakupov for Gagne + the Oilers pick.

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04-09-2012, 02:37 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by dem View Post
Valabik was definitely a stretch when drafted. He was ranked high on lists... but it was mind boggling.

The only things he had going for him were size and nastyness. 100% project. One of the worst first rounders I can remember.
For argument sake here is the 5 picks after him

Tukonen, Thelen, Stafford, Dubnyk and Radolov.

Stafford and Radolov might have been nice but neither is an oh my god how can we have missed out on picking that guy.

Some other first round picks of note:

Nokeainen(16), Chipchura(18), Korpikowski(19), Zajac(20), Wolski(21), Meszaros(23), Schneider(26), Green(29)

From my memory none of those guys were really highly rated picks, although Meszaros I think dropped alot and might have been considered the one that they might have given up on. The 2 best of the bunch(Zajac and Green) I don't think anybody envisioned either being considered for top 10 picks.

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04-09-2012, 03:12 PM
  #229
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This is percisely why I laugh whenever I hear people say Pittsburgh built a great team. No, they were handed a great team for tanking hard for several years (will give credit for Neal trade though). Teams like the Devils and Detroit BUILT great teams.

All that being said, this is the fairest way to do it and promotes parity. The lottery system was also an improvement.

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04-09-2012, 03:17 PM
  #230
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The Penguins sucked for 4 seasons. They arguably "tanked" in 2 of them.

Lots of teams have sucked for the past decade and have little to show for it. Atlanta, Columbus, Florida, etc.

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04-09-2012, 03:52 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by MartyForVezina View Post
This is percisely why I laugh whenever I hear people say Pittsburgh built a great team. No, they were handed a great team for tanking hard for several years (will give credit for Neal trade though). Teams like the Devils and Detroit BUILT great teams.

All that being said, this is the fairest way to do it and promotes parity. The lottery system was also an improvement.
This post is precisely why I laugh whenever I hear people say "they were handed a great team" no they weren't. Nobody handed them anything, Craig Patrick couldn't spend money that the team didn't have. The team was poor and there was no salary cap. We had to put a bad Penguin team out on the ice because of that, which is why we got those high pick, not because we "tanked", we just sucked.

Before the Penguins started picking 1st and 2nd overall, let's look at their draft record starting with 2000.

2000 - Brooks Orpik (18th overall)
2001 - Colby Armstrong (21st overall)

then in 2002, they got Ryan Whitney (5th overall) and Erik Christensen (69th overall)

In 2003, the Florida Panthers won the draft lottery, Pens had the 3rd overall pick. Patrick traded up with Florida to pick Marc-Andre Fleury, a player who he liked and wanted. He could have just stood pat and drafted a guy like Nathan Horton.

In 2004, It was going to be Malkin either way. Craig Patrick talked about how much the Pens liked Malkin and it wouldn't matter if they picked 1st or 2nd, they wanted Malkin either way.

In 2005, Pens won the lottery to select Crosby, nothing was handed to them, they were just lucky. They also drafted Kris Letang in the 3rd round and Joe Vitale, a good 4th line center in the 7th round.

Craig Patrick was fired, Ray Shero hired and in 2006, he selected Jordan Staal, a good support for Sid and Geno. He could have easily selected Toews or Kessel.

After Ray Shero took over, he built this team into what it is today.

Traded Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito (2007 1st round, 20th overall pick) and the 2008 1st (29th overall) for Pascal Dupuis and Marian Hossa. Yes, I know Hossa left but he is also a great hockey player, and Shero got him along with Pascal Dupuis, who is also a great hockey player for the Pens, for 4 players that didn't really matter.

Traded Ryan Whitney for Chris Kunitz and Eric Tangradi, got a good power forward winger to play with Sid and a young power forward prospect.

Traded Alex Goligoski for James Neal and Matt Niskanen, Goligoski was a #5 defenseman here and with depth at the position, he was able to be traded, and he brought back a #5 PMD who plays great for the Pens and a winger who just scored 40 goals.

And let's not forget the free agents he brings in.

02-Jul-07 Signed right wing Petr Sıkora
05-Jul-08 Signed left wing Matt Cooke to a two-year contract.
01-Jul-10 Signed free agent defenseman Zbynek Michalek to a five year, $20 million contract
01-Jul-10 Signed free agent defenseman Paul Martin to a five year $25 million contract.
01-Jul-11 Signed free agent forward Steve Sullivan to a one year, $1.5 million contract


The bold is all Shero.

Kunitz-Malkin-Neal
Sullivan-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Asham-Vitale-Adams

Orpik-Letang
Martin-Michalek
Niskanen-Engelland

Fleury
Johnson

Let's not forget, Brooks Orpik was an 18th overall pick in 2000 and Kris Letang was a 3rd round (62nd overall) pick in 2005.

So, you see. Pittsburgh wasn't handed a good team, they selected 4 great players in the early rounds, then BUILT a team around them. So in a way, yes Pittsburgh did build a good team.

Oh, and I would like to add that for our 2009 cup winning team. These guys were important.

Max Talbot (2002 8th round, 234th overall by the Pens)

Hal Gill - acquired by Ray Shero

Rob Scuderi (1998 5th round, 134th overall by the Pens)

Mark Eaton - signed by Ray Shero

Pittsburgh handed a good team? I don't think so.

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04-09-2012, 03:54 PM
  #232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob View Post
The Penguins sucked for 4 seasons. They arguably "tanked" in 2 of them.

Lots of teams have sucked for the past decade and have little to show for it. Atlanta, Columbus, Florida, etc.
True. However, none of those teams were ever in the position to acquire a player on the level of Malkin or Crosby, let alone two of them.

It takes more than an elite player or two to build a great team, but it's a damn good starting point.

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04-09-2012, 04:02 PM
  #233
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They're gonna convince themselves Murray or Dumba is the best BPA. After Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Grigo, Forsberg, Dumba, and Murray are all in the same tier. Is Grigo really that much better then Murray or Dumba? Why not fill a hole AND get a great player?

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04-09-2012, 04:06 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by ChillyPalmer View Post
They're gonna convince themselves Murray or Dumba is the best BPA. After Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Grigo, Forsberg, Dumba, and Murray are all in the same tier. Is Grigo really that much better then Murray or Dumba? Why not fill a hole AND get a great player?
murray is heads and tails better than dumba

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04-09-2012, 04:11 PM
  #235
ChillyPalmer
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Originally Posted by hyster110 View Post
murray is heads and tails better than dumba
I've seen plenty of people rank Dumba ahead of Murray. My point is Yakupov is the only consensus #1 pick. Everyone else is interchangeable.

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04-09-2012, 04:18 PM
  #236
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People keep saying fill a hole. You can count on 1 hand the amount of 18 year old dmen who made their teams right after being drafted and werent a liability. A d-man 2-3 years away isnt filling a hole. In 2-3 years defence might not even be a weakness

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04-09-2012, 04:36 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Jamin View Post
People keep saying fill a hole. You can count on 1 hand the amount of 18 year old dmen who made their teams right after being drafted and werent a liability. A d-man 2-3 years away isnt filling a hole. In 2-3 years defence might not even be a weakness
They've got franchise players on offense, they should build up their defense core. If they do draft Grigo they should package him in a deal for a proven defender. If they keep him and that Swiss cheese defense, they'll be picking MacKinnon next year.

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04-09-2012, 04:44 PM
  #238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob View Post
The Penguins sucked for 4 seasons. They arguably "tanked" in 2 of them.

Lots of teams have sucked for the past decade and have little to show for it. Atlanta, Columbus, Florida, etc.
And let's not forget that magical Crosby "gift" the Penguins received.

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04-09-2012, 04:46 PM
  #239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
This post is precisely why I laugh whenever I hear people say "they were handed a great team" no they weren't. Nobody handed them anything, Craig Patrick couldn't spend money that the team didn't have. The team was poor and there was no salary cap. We had to put a bad Penguin team out on the ice because of that, which is why we got those high pick, not because we "tanked", we just sucked.

Before the Penguins started picking 1st and 2nd overall, let's look at their draft record starting with 2000.

2000 - Brooks Orpik (18th overall)
2001 - Colby Armstrong (21st overall)

then in 2002, they got Ryan Whitney (5th overall) and Erik Christensen (69th overall)

In 2003, the Florida Panthers won the draft lottery, Pens had the 3rd overall pick. Patrick traded up with Florida to pick Marc-Andre Fleury, a player who he liked and wanted. He could have just stood pat and drafted a guy like Nathan Horton.

In 2004, It was going to be Malkin either way. Craig Patrick talked about how much the Pens liked Malkin and it wouldn't matter if they picked 1st or 2nd, they wanted Malkin either way.

In 2005, Pens won the lottery to select Crosby, nothing was handed to them, they were just lucky. They also drafted Kris Letang in the 3rd round and Joe Vitale, a good 4th line center in the 7th round.

Craig Patrick was fired, Ray Shero hired and in 2006, he selected Jordan Staal, a good support for Sid and Geno. He could have easily selected Toews or Kessel.

After Ray Shero took over, he built this team into what it is today.

Traded Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito (2007 1st round, 20th overall pick) and the 2008 1st (29th overall) for Pascal Dupuis and Marian Hossa. Yes, I know Hossa left but he is also a great hockey player, and Shero got him along with Pascal Dupuis, who is also a great hockey player for the Pens, for 4 players that didn't really matter.

Traded Ryan Whitney for Chris Kunitz and Eric Tangradi, got a good power forward winger to play with Sid and a young power forward prospect.

Traded Alex Goligoski for James Neal and Matt Niskanen, Goligoski was a #5 defenseman here and with depth at the position, he was able to be traded, and he brought back a #5 PMD who plays great for the Pens and a winger who just scored 40 goals.

And let's not forget the free agents he brings in.

02-Jul-07 Signed right wing Petr Sıkora
05-Jul-08 Signed left wing Matt Cooke to a two-year contract.
01-Jul-10 Signed free agent defenseman Zbynek Michalek to a five year, $20 million contract
01-Jul-10 Signed free agent defenseman Paul Martin to a five year $25 million contract.
01-Jul-11 Signed free agent forward Steve Sullivan to a one year, $1.5 million contract


The bold is all Shero.

Kunitz-Malkin-Neal
Sullivan-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Asham-Vitale-Adams

Orpik-Letang
Martin-Michalek
Niskanen-Engelland

Fleury
Johnson

Let's not forget, Brooks Orpik was an 18th overall pick in 2000 and Kris Letang was a 3rd round (62nd overall) pick in 2005.

So, you see. Pittsburgh wasn't handed a good team, they selected 4 great players in the early rounds, then BUILT a team around them. So in a way, yes Pittsburgh did build a good team.

Oh, and I would like to add that for our 2009 cup winning team. These guys were important.

Max Talbot (2002 8th round, 234th overall by the Pens)

Hal Gill - acquired by Ray Shero

Rob Scuderi (1998 5th round, 134th overall by the Pens)

Mark Eaton - signed by Ray Shero

Pittsburgh handed a good team? I don't think so.
And the italicized and underlined are the biggest reasons why the Penguins succeed.

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04-09-2012, 05:06 PM
  #240
boredmale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
In 2003, the Florida Panthers won the draft lottery, Pens had the 3rd overall pick. Patrick traded up with Florida to pick Marc-Andre Fleury, a player who he liked and wanted. He could have just stood pat and drafted a guy like Nathan Horton.
I am guessing they could have sticked at 3rd and drafted MAF. Beyond that I am guessing you ask 29 other teams who they rather have they would say Staal > Fleury(Penguins might be the only one to disagree because how they lucked out the next 2 years). All that being said I am guessing Florida traded the pick to Pittsburgh under the condition they pick Fleury

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
In 2005, Pens won the lottery to select Crosby, nothing was handed to them, they were just lucky.
I would say who ever got to pick Crosby is the pure definition of having luck hand them something

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
Craig Patrick was fired, Ray Shero hired and in 2006, he selected Jordan Staal, a good support for Sid and Geno. He could have easily selected Toews or Kessel.
And he probably should have but since he lucked out the previous 2 drafts with generational talents it's not a big deal that he passed 2 better players.

All in all the Penguins argument is that it's basically a team that was built on a run of drafts from 2002-2006 where they basically got 2 generational talents and 3 other good talents that helped the team. that is basically 1/4 of the roster


Last edited by boredmale: 04-09-2012 at 05:16 PM.
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Old
04-09-2012, 05:32 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by CarlWinslow View Post
And the italicized and underlined are the biggest reasons why the Penguins succeed.
No, but they help. 4 players aren't going to win hockey games and a Stanley Cup, you have to build a team around them. I was proving a point that the Penguins weren't "given a good team" they built around 4 great players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
I am guessing they could have sticked at 3rd and drafted MAF. Beyond that I am guessing you ask 29 other teams who they rather have they would say Staal > Fleury(Penguins might be the only one to disagree because how they lucked out the next 2 years). All that being said I am guessing Florida traded the pick to Pittsburgh under the condition they pick Fleury
Maybe, and I'm sure if a team needed a center, they would have picked Staal, but the Pens were in need of a solid goalie, maybe Craig Patrick wanted a goalie to start with.

Quote:
I would say who ever got to pick Crosby is the pure definition of having luck hand them something
Well it's luck and if you want to say luck handed them Crosby then go ahead, but when I see people say Pittsburgh was handed a good team, I don't think they are referring to luck, they are referring to Bettman.

Quote:
And he probably should have but since he lucked out the previous 2 drafts with generational talents it's not a big deal that he passed for 2 better players.
Well he had that set up for him by Craig Patrick, after Sidney Crosby was drafted, it was essentially Shero's team to build. He thought Jordan Staal would compliment Crosby and Malkin and he has.

The thing I don't understand is what I stated before, I don't see how anyone can say an organization was handed a good team, sure Patrick didn't make the best decisions and it caused the Penguins some bad seasons, but I don't see why people are saying the whole Penguins team was handed to them. Ray Shero built a strong foundation around Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury.

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04-09-2012, 05:52 PM
  #242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
Maybe, and I'm sure if a team needed a center, they would have picked Staal, but the Pens were in need of a solid goalie, maybe Craig Patrick wanted a goalie to start with.
To this day I never understood the trade why the Penguins moved up to #1. Florida had Loungo at the time and Carolina just drafted Ward in 2002, so neither team was going to pick a goalie. All that being said I will give then a free pass on not taking Staal(and yes at that time they desperately needed a #1 center unless they had a magic time machine that would forsee them getting Malkin and Crosby) because as I said I think the trade was contingent on them picking Fleury.

The only 2 scenarios I can see is Florida was threatening trading down to 4th with Columbus who would take Fleury, or Pittsburgh wanted to grandstand saying they got the #1 pick. Basically it came down to Pittsburgh trading the 55th pick to Florida for the 73rd pick to get the same guy they would have gotten either way

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04-09-2012, 07:16 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
To this day I never understood the trade why the Penguins moved up to #1. Florida had Loungo at the time and Carolina just drafted Ward in 2002, so neither team was going to pick a goalie. All that being said I will give then a free pass on not taking Staal(and yes at that time they desperately needed a #1 center unless they had a magic time machine that would forsee them getting Malkin and Crosby) because as I said I think the trade was contingent on them picking Fleury.

The only 2 scenarios I can see is Florida was threatening trading down to 4th with Columbus who would take Fleury, or Pittsburgh wanted to grandstand saying they got the #1 pick. Basically it came down to Pittsburgh trading the 55th pick to Florida for the 73rd pick to get the same guy they would have gotten either way
Penguins management knew they needed a number1 and possible franchise goalie. They got it and he was a huge factor in their cup win. I call that good management, and a 73rd pick compared to a 55th is not a huge drop because you are drafting in taking a flyer zone anyhow.And with the 55th pick Florida took Meyer who never had a career in the NHL Penguins took Carcillo


Last edited by Oilmageddon*: 04-09-2012 at 07:22 PM.
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04-09-2012, 09:41 PM
  #244
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Always take the best player first. Trade later.
exactly. that's how you do it

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04-09-2012, 10:11 PM
  #245
Erza Scarlet
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I read this in the paper regarding Oilers.

Quote:
“This year might turn out to be a little different. It may become a positional-type decision,” he admits of what faces Tambellini in making a big picture decisions, depending on how the bingo balls drop.

“He’s a smart defenceman. He gets up the ice smart. He’s real solid. He skates extremely well. He’s great positionally. He played a shutdown roll at the world junior. And he’s taken his game to another level since then,” he said of the only draft-eligible player to make Team Canada this year.

“We had a scout at every game he played in the playoffs and somebody there for just about every game he played in the last three weeks of the season.”

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04-10-2012, 11:27 AM
  #246
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Here is an article that sort of makes my point of picking a defenseman from last page

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...men-come-from/

Quote:
Defense seems to be in a happy medium between forwards and goaltending in terms of the availability of elite talent. Three-quarters of elite forwards are gone by the end of the first round, as are one-half of elite defensemen and one quarter of elite goaltenders. Ninety percent of elite forwards are gone by the first 100 picks, as are 75% of elite defensemen and 60% of elite goaltenders. In both cases, defense falls precisely at the midpoint between forwards and goaltenders.

This suggests three distinct draft curves:

- For forwards, the high-end talent is gone almost immediately, and selections outside the first round are highly unlikely to develop into stars. This suggests that the various NHL scouting services are highly efficient at identifying the best available talent every year.

- For defensemen, a significant portion of the high-end talent goes quickly, but there are gems to be found outside the first round and outside the top-100. This suggests that the various NHL scouting services are less efficient at identifying the best available talent every year, and that teams may be able to land high-end talent later on.

- For goaltenders, a small portion of the high-end talent goes quickly, and there are gems to be found outside the first round, the top-100, and as history as shown outside the draft entirely. This suggests that the various NHL scouting services are highly inefficient at identifying the best available talent every year, and that teams can land high-end talent from a variety of locations.

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04-10-2012, 12:11 PM
  #247
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I get it, good defensemen can be found later in the draft, but that doesn't mean you can't get a great one in the top-5 or 10.

Just look at the '08 draft... If LA, STL or even ATL(WIN) used this mentality, they would have passed up on Doughty, Pietrangelo and Bogosian respectively for what? After Stamkos(who was gone before any of these teams picked) the rest of the forwards rounding out the top-10 were Colin Wilson, Nikita Filatov, Mikkel Boedker, Josh Bailey and Cody Hodgson. While some of these forwards are decent players, none of them are on the level of the 3 defensemen I named.

How devistated do you think either of these teams would be had they used the "we can find a defenseman later" philosophy?

I guess my point is... Draft history really doesn't mean ****. Just because somebody took a guy in the 3rd or 4th round who happens to be a great defenseman, it doesn't mean the guy you are thinking about taking in the top-5 WON'T be.

For every potential Luke Schenn in the top-5(no offense, Leaf fans), there's a potential Alex Pietrangelo. For every potential Shea Weber in the 2nd round, there's a potential Matt Smaby. There really is no science to it. You take a chance on the guy you feel has the best shot, and IMO the guy with the best shot is the guy taken in the top-10.

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04-10-2012, 08:17 PM
  #248
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Apparently Yakupov to the oilers is more fair

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04-11-2012, 12:42 AM
  #249
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Originally Posted by SB164 View Post
Yeah, tt's the Chinese Olympics gymnastics team controversy all over again.
It's still a rumor. But here is a fact. The KHL made a statement a month ago or so that they acknowledge the problem of parents of hockey players forging birth certificates and will take measures to stop it.

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