I don't think Islanders fans are going to like it, but my gut feeling is this.
1. Edmonton - Nail Yakupov
2. Columbus - Mikhail Grigorenko
3. Montreal - Alex Galchenyuk
4. New York Islanders - Morgan Rielly
5. Toronto - Filip Forsberg
6. Anaheim - Ryan Murray
7. Minnesota - Mathew Dumba
I don't think Islanders fans are going to like it, but my gut feeling is this.
1. Edmonton - Nail Yakupov
2. Columbus - Mikhail Grigorenko
3. Montreal - Alex Galchenyuk
4. New York Islanders - Morgan Rielly
5. Toronto - Filip Forsberg
6. Anaheim - Ryan Murray
7. Minnesota - Mathew Dumba
Flip Rielly and Murray and it might make sense, At #4, the Isles will not take a dman who would be 2-3 years away, even if he had not lost a year due to his ACL, from which he has not yet recovered. At #4, the Isles have two safer choices with just as much high-end potential.
we hear the talk of grigorenko not competing and it turns us off. we hear things about forsberg that we don't like so he can't be the pick in the eyes of some. what if the first three picks go like this:
yakupov
murray
galchenyuk
?
if this develops, who do you want then if not sold on grigorenko or forsberg?
I haven't heard anything about Forsberg that I don't like. His negatives are he's not NHL-ready and that his stats in Sweden aren't as lofty as those of prospects in the CHL (neither were Larsson's, Zibanejad's or Hedman's stats). Neither factor raises red flags in my eyes.
Flip Rielly and Murray and it might make sense, At #4, the Isles will not take a dman who would be 2-3 years away, even if he had not lost a year due to his ACL, from which he has not yet recovered. At #4, the Isles have two safer choices with just as much high-end potential.
Source?
Fact of the matter is, neither one of you have any clue as to what the Islanders will do. Neither do I. But to say no way to anything at this point is just ignorant, plain and simple. It also tells me either you haven't been following the draft for very long or your judgement is too clouded by allegiences to see straight. Anything can happen and every single year there are surprises that even the experts like Bobby Mac don't see coming. So get off your high horses because you have as much knowledge of who the Islanders will draft in June as my bowel movements from 25 years ago do.
Rielly will debut against the Oil Kings in the playoffs and if his comeback is similar to Galchenyuk, he will rise up the rankings. He is exactly the type of cerebral, swift-skating D Garth covets and will be a late riser on the upswing. Many say he could be the best D in the draft. Can't wait to see him play when he debuts.
I haven't heard anything about Forsberg that I don't like. His negatives are he's not NHL-ready and that his stats in Sweden aren't as lofty as those of prospects in the CHL (neither were Larsson's, Zibanejad's or Hedman's stats). Neither factor raises red flags in my eyes.
I have heard plenty I do like. Size, smarts and skill. He's not ranked high for his last name. He's a solid pick if Murray and Grigorenko are off the table.
To me this draft seems a lot more open than anyone actually believes and things could change considerably come the draft. There's still the playoffs, and then there's the combine and the player interviews which all should have some effect on the outcome. Finally, there's a good chance that any of the top picks might be traded, so it's gonna be a fun two months.
A little change in pace here, does Garth snag a goalie in this draft? Nabby is signed for one more year and after that it's Nilsson, Poulin, and *gulp* DP. Oscar Dansk is a big swedish goalie who could very well be the best goalie in the draft but might be not be taking ahead of Subban and the Russian because he plays in Sweden right now.
A little change in pace here, does Garth snag a goalie in this draft? Nabby is signed for one more year and after that it's Nilsson, Poulin, and *gulp* DP. Oscar Dansk is a big swedish goalie who could very well be the best goalie in the draft but might be not be taking ahead of Subban and the Russian because he plays in Sweden right now.
He may very well do that but hopefully not in any of the early rounds. If he gets a goalie in the 6th or something that's ok.
To me this draft seems a lot more open than anyone actually believes and things could change considerably come the draft. There's still the playoffs, and then there's the combine and the player interviews which all should have some effect on the outcome. Finally, there's a good chance that any of the top picks might be traded, so it's gonna be a fun two months.
Very true.
In the end, every team will have their own draft board in order of who they want if that player were still available when they pick.
In the first round we will not have long to wait.
I expect that Garth will already have anticipated some lower teams needs and sounded them out about a possible swap.
He may also really want a player that could go earlier than when we pick (but it will not be known to him) so he may prepare an offer to move up.
Move up, move down, pick at their turn........it all will depend on who he really wants, how bad he wants him, and what his fall back choice will be. I think they already have the board set and their chioces staked out.
Playoff and touney performance is big, and could effect the order in which we view players. It is crunch time when the true nature of players is revealed, only we have to be careful not to go too far for a player that might just have a temporary hot streak.
This draft seems pretty top heavy through the first 20, so I do not see us giving up very much just to try and get back in the end of the 1st round.
He may very well do that but hopefully not in any of the early rounds. If he gets a goalie in the 6th or something that's ok.
I would take Vasilevski with our 2nd rounder if he drops that far. IMO he will be the best goalie to come out of this draft, the only reason he may drop to the 2nd round is because he is Russian.
IF we draft Murray or any other defenseman with the 4th pick, we will have enough depth across the board to take a goaltender in the 2nd round. The way I see it, if 2 or 3 years go by and neither of Poulin or Nilsson have stepped up to take our goaltending reigns, we'd be kicking ourselves knowing we passed on this kid in the 2nd round.
I would take Vasilevski with our 2nd rounder if he drops that far. IMO he will be the best goalie to come out of this draft, the only reason he may drop to the 2nd round is because he is Russian.
IF we draft Murray or any other defenseman with the 4th pick, we will have enough depth across the board to take a goaltender in the 2nd round. The way I see it, if 2 or 3 years go by and neither of Poulin or Nilsson have stepped up to take our goaltending reigns, we'd be kicking ourselves knowing we passed on this kid in the 2nd round.
I'd be upset if we spend an early 2nd rounder on another goalie when we already have a logjam in that position. Let's not forget Koskinen is in Europe and will most likely be back next season.
Not sure if this has been mentioned here but Dominik Volek (son of David) is draft eligible this year. I think they're projecting him to be a mid/late 2nd rounder. Would be cool if the Isles got him.
I'd be upset if we spend an early 2nd rounder on another goalie when we already have a logjam in that position. Let's not forget Koskinen is in Europe and will most likely be back next season.
...and then there's Cody Rosen too
Does anyone know the real story behind that?
Is that a Snow pick that Jankowski did not want and thats what lead too Janks departing?
Not sure if this has been mentioned here but Dominik Volek (son of David) is draft eligible this year. I think they're projecting him to be a mid/late 2nd rounder. Would be cool if the Isles got him.
He was born just a few months after "the goal."
I hear he's slipped, so we might be able to get in the 5th round.
Just to confuse everyone a little bit more, Morgan Reilly looks like a faster, more dynamic, North American version of Mark Streit, and with Streit being 35 years old, sure would be nice to find his eventual replacement as top pairing defenseman and power play catalyst....
Aside from the Streit comparison, Reilly looks like the fastest and most offensively gifted defenseman in this years group... As far as his injury, he is set to return to the lineup tonight, so I don't consider his injury any more concerning than Galchenyuk's knee, or Yakupov's multiple concussions....
Just to confuse everyone a little bit more, Morgan Reilly looks like a faster, more dynamic, North American version of Mark Streit, and with Streit being 35 years old, sure would be nice to find his eventual replacement as top pairing defenseman and power play catalyst....
Aside from the Streit comparison, Reilly looks like the fastest and most offensively gifted defenseman in this years group... As far as his injury, he is set to return to the lineup tonight, so I don't consider his injury any more concerning than Galchenyuk's knee, or Yakupov's multiple concussions....
Prior to his injury, most scouts felt Reilly was the best offensive defenseman heading into the 2012 draft. Being that he is still rated in the top 15, despite missing most of the year, tells you about what the scouts think of his upside. That being said, if Galchenyuk, Murray or Dumba are there at #4, I much rather the Islanders take one of them, or trade down if we wanna take Reilly.
Just to confuse everyone a little bit more, Morgan Reilly looks like a faster, more dynamic, North American version of Mark Streit, and with Streit being 35 years old, sure would be nice to find his eventual replacement as top pairing defenseman and power play catalyst....
Aside from the Streit comparison, Reilly looks like the fastest and most offensively gifted defenseman in this years group... As far as his injury, he is set to return to the lineup tonight, so I don't consider his injury any more concerning than Galchenyuk's knee, or Yakupov's multiple concussions....
I'm liking Rielly more and more. He's going to play his first game since November a week from today. I may be liking him over Murray right now, as crazy as that sounds. Pretty crazy that two of my three favorite players from this draft have barely played this year due to knee injuries.
Prior to his injury, most scouts felt Reilly was the best offensive defenseman heading into the 2012 draft. Being that he is still rated in the top 15, despite missing most of the year, tells you about what the scouts think of his upside. That being said, if Galchenyuk, Murray or Dumba are there at #4, I much rather the Islanders take one of them, or trade down if we wanna take Reilly.
From what I recall, Rielly has been favorably compared to Brian Leetch. Similar build, outstanding skater, offensively gifted. Again, I worry about the knee injury and he certainly doesn't remedy our size and physicality problem on the back end. If he can come close to becoming a Leetch, would be a good pick.
I still prefer Dumba, Murray, and Trouba - but Rielly is definitely intriguing.
Just to confuse everyone a little bit more, Morgan Reilly looks like a faster, more dynamic, North American version of Mark Streit, and with Streit being 35 years old, sure would be nice to find his eventual replacement as top pairing defenseman and power play catalyst....
Aside from the Streit comparison, Reilly looks like the fastest and most offensively gifted defenseman in this years group... As far as his injury, he is set to return to the lineup tonight, so I don't consider his injury any more concerning than Galchenyuk's knee, or Yakupov's multiple concussions....
In some ways Riely is one of the more likely guys to be Snow's pick. Obviously things could change, but at the top of the draft Snow has taken only:
*players in NA (and more specifically, in the CHL);
*players who have produced points at a high rate (for Nino you have to include his WJC and WHL playoffs in this).
And I'm including de Haan in that list since he was taken 12th and I think they said they had him rated higher (and he was close to a point per game player on D). It seems like Snow doesn't go for D at the top of the draft, but maybe he just doesn't go for physical guys or "steady Eddie" types on D who he figures he can get later in the draft.
So, if you apply the two ** of past history above to the projected top of this draft, and leave Yakupov out of it; the likely picks would be:
GRIGORENKO (although the supposed lack of drive would be an issue)
GALCHENYUK
DUMBA
RIELLY
And I'd say, based on the infatuation with de Haan's style, Rielly could be more likely than Dumba. Of course, if Rielly comes back and somehow lights it up in the playoffs (which would be tough after being out so long), he might not be available at #4.
Of course, Snow's drafting is still a limited sample, so maybe it ends up being Forsberg (even though he passed on Mika Z) or Murray (even though he passed on Gormley and Fowler). But if the history is indicative, then the most likely guy would probably be Galchenyuk.
I'm liking Rielly more and more. He's going to play his first game since November a week from today. I may be liking him over Murray right now, as crazy as that sounds. Pretty crazy that two of my three favorite players from this draft have barely played this year due to knee injuries.
Here is the problem with taking players who have been injured the whole year. You are basing everything on potential and what they did last year. While all the other prospects have had their draft year analyzed and "couturieried" to death, these prospects have remained shining gems....no chance to analyze their talent as featured players for their teams and having their warts exposed. You end up seeing what you want to see. Sure, plenty of potential in Rielly and Galenchyuk, but others had similar potential going into the year and then flamed out....something we wouldnt get to find out about those guys until after they are drafted.
...and im not saying I wouldnt take either of them....I would....but its a risk when you fill an empty suit with all your hopes and dreams...you might find out that thats all they are, an empty suit.
Fact of the matter is, neither one of you have any clue as to what the Islanders will do. Neither do I. But to say no way to anything at this point is just ignorant, plain and simple. It also tells me either you haven't been following the draft for very long or your judgement is too clouded by allegiences to see straight. Anything can happen and every single year there are surprises that even the experts like Bobby Mac don't see coming. So get off your high horses because you have as much knowledge of who the Islanders will draft in June as my bowel movements from 25 years ago do.
Rielly will debut against the Oil Kings in the playoffs and if his comeback is similar to Galchenyuk, he will rise up the rankings. He is exactly the type of cerebral, swift-skating D Garth covets and will be a late riser on the upswing. Many say he could be the best D in the draft. Can't wait to see him play when he debuts.
How about the Final CSS rankings where Murray moved up to #2 over Grigenko and Galcehnyuk?
Its true.. We dont know what Garth is thinking, we can only look at past trends and give our best inference at what he might do. That being said, we are all just speculating.
Last edited by PWJunior: 04-13-2012 at 12:13 PM.
Reason: Not necessary
Here is the problem with taking players who have been injured the whole year. You are basing everything on potential and what they did last year. While all the other prospects have had their draft year analyzed and "couturieried" to death, these prospects have remained shining gems....no chance to analyze their talent as featured players for their teams and having their warts exposed. You end up seeing what you want to see. Sure, plenty of potential in Rielly and Galenchyuk, but others had similar potential going into the year and then flamed out....something we wouldnt get to find out about those guys until after they are drafted.
...and im not saying I wouldnt take either of them....I would....but its a risk when you fill an empty suit with all your hopes and dreams...you might find out that thats all they are, an empty suit.
Rielly did play 18 games early in the season and had 18 points. He's now apparently coming back in the playoffs. If he plays well, I think teams will forget really quickly about the 50 or so games he missed.
