Winnipeg Jets 2011-12 Season Ending Roster Report

[Wpgpage]

Part 2

Mark Stuart-27-6.02-215-3-11-14-4-8.5
Everybody loves Mark, even I love Stuart and his stats kinda suck. I do have one bone to pick with the general fan base and that is this: There is a difference between skill and consistency some fans seem to forget this, while Mark may be the most consistent defender the Jets have on the roster he is by no means the most skilled, in fact he is probably the least skilled. Now that being said he played his role perfectly he was everything you could want from a bottom pairing Dman and he has one above average skill he brings to the table. That being his toughness, or truculence as Burkie would put it. Now on to the stats Mark played the 5th worst competition with a Rel Corsi QoC of .103 and started in the offensive zone the 5th fewest times at 50.2%. Given those minutes Mark put up a 3.42 Corsi On and a 6.2 Rel Corsi, ranking him 6th and 7th respectively among the Dmen. Compared to other 5th Dmen this is actually pretty good, and really only being out shoot by 3.42 per 60 minutes when the bottom pair is on the Ice was not to terrible. Hopefully playing with players not named Randy Jones and Mark Flood will help Stuart out a bit next year. Mark does score some points by putting up the 5th best GA/60 at 2.62(2nd among the top 5). Stuart did ok on the PK playing the 5th toughest competition he was badly out played Rel Corsi 34.1, he did kill off 2.78 minutes per game however 2nd highest on the team. Overall Mark was an above average 5th defensemen, he showed improvement in his competition and Corsi numbers for the 2nd straight year and added toughness to a Jets team that at times was lacking it. He played above his head at times, while Toby and Hainsey were out he was the 2nd LH on the depth chart. Ultimately he is what he is a bottom pairing Dman and he puts up bottom D numbers at 1.7M hes a decent deal and he goes out and does his job consistently can't really ask for much more than that.

Ron Hainsey-31-6.03-210-0-10-10-9-7.0
Ron Hainsey was another player that disappointed me a bit, he like Antropov is average at everything a good at nothing. He had a down year offensively 0% personal shooting and a rather decent 8.55% On Ice SH%. This is the 3rd straight year of declining PPG totals although his PP time has also declined explaining most of this. Overall he played the 4th toughest competition at .552 and had the lowest Ozone start% at 46.9%, for this he generated a Corsi ON of 3.36 5th and a Rel Corsi of 7.4 good for 6th among the Dmen. Given the tougher minutes and poor staring position these numbers are slightly below average, not bad by any stretch of the imagination but defiantly not good ether. Hainsey did win the GA/60 race with a very low 2.05 however this was mostly due to Pavs deciding Hainsey bought him the nicest Christmas present and giving him a On Ice SV% of 927 a full 14 points higher than the next closest regular Jets Dman. Hainsey was given very little PP time and wasn't exactly good at it, I could get into the stats but when Stapleton takes your spot on the PP you know something isn't going well. On the PK Hainsey was OK once again playing the 3rd most minutes per game at 2.50 against the 4th toughest competition, he had the 5th best Rel Corsi at 18.9, once again pretty average. The theme once again for the Hains is average and for a guy making over 4.5M this season I guess I expected a little bit more. The Jets would be fine having Ron as the 4th defensemen next year but if the opportunity to improve presents itself the Jets should take it.

The others, Randy Jones was terrible he played enough games to meet sample size requirements but I will save you the reading time, he was very very bad and I hope he leaves. Mark Flood was worse than Jones so I'll just leave it at that. Grant Clitsome only played 12 games with the Jets so its hard to separate out the stats overall he put up numbers similar to Stuart playing worse competition there's some potential there but need to see more of him in Noels system before I make a judgment on him for now hes a better option than Jones or Flood as the 7th D. Postma and Kulda didn't get enough game action to draw any conclusions but they should both be in play for the 6th D spot.

Overall the defense is strong but needs some tweeks, the continued development of a very young group will help I do think they need to add someone on the left side to replace Hainsey. They also need to figure out what they have in Bogo going forward as that will determine a lot of the planning, they could add a RH 6th Dman if Postma and Kulda can't hack it.

D Depth Chart:
1. Toby Enstrom
2. Buffy
3. Zach Bogosian
4. Ron Hainsey
5. Mark Stuart
6. Grant Clitsome
7. Randy Jones - UFA
8. Mark Flood - UFA
9. Paul Postma - RFA
10. Atrus Kulda - RFA

Next up Goalies and final thoughts

[Wpgpage]

Goalies!

Prepare to not like me.

Ondrej Pavelec-24-6.03-220-.906-2.91-7.0
Let me start this off by saying that Pavs deserves a lot of credit, there were many a night when the Jets were holding on based solely on Pavelec. That being said if the Jets are going to make the playoff Pavs needs to be better, especially on the road. Last year Pavs had a .914 SV% split into a .924 home vs .903 road this was worrying this season .906 total .917 home vs .895 was downright bad. At home the Jets were allowing 28.1 EV and PP shoots per game, on the road 30.21 a difference of 2.11 shoots per game. Giving up more shots on the road is troubling but not 22 points of SV% troubling are the scoring chances really that much better on the road then they are at home? There were a few blow out games that happened on the road but even factoring them in it still doesn't add up. Pavs gave up 19 more road goals in 4 less games! I give Pavs a ton of credit but he has to be better on the road if the Jets are going to see the playoffs plain and simple. Overall he posted a .917 EV SV% decent but not great last year he was .928 which is much closer to average, hopefully the Jets can get some help and tighten up the team defense to get this back up. His PP SV% was .862 a good improvement from last years .852 the Jets need to improve the PK in front of him 20th in SA/60 on the PK at 51.4. Pavs continued to have short handed issues but given his struggles with breakaways this is understandable, really 90% of SH goals are the fault of the forward or D on the ice not the goaltender. A save here or there would be nice but I'm not going to place any blame on Pavy for that. The Jets did cut their shots against by 1.3 going from 31.4 to 29.1 per game good for 11th league wide, they also cut their PK shots against from 52.5 to 51.4 good for 20th league wide. Pavs played way more games than he ever has before so there is some fatigue factor there, his month by month SV% defiantly looks like a guy who got tired .914, .951, .922, .880, .886, .885 hopefully next year the Jets spread the work out a bit more. Pavs played well at times but poorly at others, he needs to work on his consistency I am willing to put a lot of the blame on fatigue but not all of it. I still think Pavs is an above average goalie, and a combination of a down year, fatigue, and a team playing poorly in front of him contributed to this years issues. However like the rest of the young team I will be looking for positive development in his game next year.

Chis Mason-35-6.00-195-.898-2.59-7.0
Mason had a decent season, he like Pavy was great at home .931 and good awful on the road .880. He started only 14 games which is far to few and whoever the backup next year is needs to get in 20-25 starts to give Pavy a break. Masons .900 EV SH% was bad but he made up for it with a excellent .883 PP SV% and a .929 SH SV%. Overall an improvement from last year and other than the road SV% its hard to ask a lot more from your backup. If he is willing to take a pay cut and come back then that would work otherwise the Jets can find someone on the UFA market.

Overall the Jets have a good young goalie they just need him to be more consistent, the difference between SV% in wins and losses is staggering .945 in wins .878 in losses, one of the largest differences among starters in the NHL.

Final Thoughts
I was going to do a year to year breakdown but its already been done better by arcticicehockey so I will just link that instead.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...by-the-numbers

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...at-the-numbers

and the thread
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1161441

The biggest thing for this team would be for Pavy to take the next step and become an above average goalie, this will help the team more than any free agent signing or trade. Apart from that I see the needs as fallows

1. #3 C who can play tough minutes
2. Bottom 6 Wingers who can play tough minutes
3. LH defense who can again play tough minutes
4. 2nd line scorer
5. #6 defensive D
6. Back up goalie

This is a young team with a lot of good pieces and the needs reflect that, while nice high upside talent will help any team, I believe the Jets can at least contend for a playoff berth if they add some seasoned players that are capable of taking the heat off of the younger guys that are still developing. This is a season review thread so I will not post my trade ideas here but I am going to make a post in the trade thread with a few moves that I believe solve most of those issues listed above.

[Huffer]

Excellent, excellent work Wpgpage!

[ps241]

Yea I agree just top notch work Wpgpage. Always great to see the stripped down numbers.

I would love to see the quality scoring chances decreased.........I am not sure if there is a site that differentiates between shots and scoring chances but my biggest concern with the Jets this past season was with the amount of high quality scoring chances they gave up.