HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Carolina Hurricanes
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-04-2012, 02:01 PM
  #251
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Game 78 vs Winnipeg
3-4 OTL




ES GOALS FOR

1st 11:22 Joslin (Skinner)
+1 Skinner for a really strong play behind the net
+1 Joslin for not missing

2nd 3:49 Sutter (Dwyer, Bowman)
+1 Dwyer for a great job creating offense off the forecheck
+1 Bowman, nice power move to the goal mouth
+1 Sutter, scoring the kind of dirty goal we don't get enough of.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 2:23 Antropov (Wellwood, Kane)
-1 Faulk. Not clear why he was out of position, but the defense was out of order trying to cover for him. He also had a great chance to recover and either stop the pass or block the shot, and did nothing but screen Ward. Tough rookie shift.
-1 Joslin, as he could have read the play and picked up Antropov.

2nd 10:25 Slater (Macachek, Bogosian)
-1 Stewart... what the hell was he doing exactly?
-1 Harrison... I feel like a broken record talking about this guy failing to defend 2-on-1 passes.

OT 0:16 Ladd (Bogosian)
-1 Faulk. Another tough shift.

Totals for the game

+1 Bowman
+1 Dwyer
+1 Skinner
+1 Sutter
-1 Harrison
-1 Stewart
-2 Faulk

tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-05-2012, 10:47 AM
  #252
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Game 79 vs New Jersey
0-5 L




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 1:44 Kovalchuk (Sykora, Zubrus)
Continuation of a PP, no changes.

2nd 3:28 Carter (Bernier, Josefson)
-1 Allen for stepping up and missing the puck
-1 Joslin, bumbling the puck into a turnover
-1 Gleason, took a risk on the poke-check and it didn't pan out for him
Stewart, Brent and ? even

2nd 17:30 Sykora (Elias)
-1 Jokinen for the clean face-off loss
Skinner, Ruutu, Faulk, Harrison even

3rd 1:15 Parise (Kovalchuk, Zajac)
-1 Staal, who got beaten up the ice so badly he wasn't even in the video frame
-1 Tlusty, who really didn't need to double-team Kovalchuk at the expense of leaving a lane wide-open down the middle
LaRose, Gleason, Allen even

Totals for the game
-1 Allen
-1 Gleason
-1 Jokinen
-1 Joslin
-1 Staal
-1 Tlusty


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-05-2012 at 10:55 AM.
tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-05-2012, 10:54 AM
  #253
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Game 80 @ Ottawa
2-1 W




ES GOALS FOR

2nd 1:33 Sutter (Gleason)
+1 Gleason, who one-timed a turnover beautifully to start the rush
+1 Sutter for the shot
Dwyer, Bowman, Faulk even

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 19:47 Spezza (Greening, Alfredsson)
6-on-5 situation, no changes.

Totals for the game
+1 Gleason
+1 Sutter

tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-05-2012, 10:58 AM
  #254
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Player Plus Minus Total Margin Of Error
Forwards
Drayson Bowman 15 3 +12 1
Zach Boychuk 2 1 +1 -
Tim Brent 16 7 +9 3
Zac Dalpe 2 2 even -
Patrick Dwyer 11 5 +6 -
Jussi Jokinen 23 10 +13 1
Chad LaRose 20 12 +8 -
Riley Nash 1 - +1 -
Andreas Nodl 8 3 +5 -
Alexei Ponikarovsky 9 5 +4 -
Tuomo Ruutu 27 10 +17 -
Jerome Samson 3 1 +2 -
Jeff Skinner 26 12 +14 1
Eric Staal 33 20 +13 -
Anthony Stewart 16 8 +8 1
Brandon Sutter 25 9 +16 -
Brett Sutter 3 3 even -
Jiri Tlusty 27 14 +13 1
Defensemen
Bryan Allen 7 20 -13 1
Justin Faulk 7 22 -15 -
Tim Gleason 11 19 -8 1
Jay Harrison 10 28 -18 -
Derek Joslin 3 8 -5 -
Tomas Kaberle 2 10 -8 -
Jamie McBain 17 25 -8 2
Joni Pitkanen 8 13 -5 1
Bobby Sanguinetti 1 - +1 -
Jaroslav Spacek 7 15 -8 -

ALMOST THERE...


tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2012, 10:21 PM
  #255
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Game 81 vs Montreal
2-1 SOW




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 4:32 Geoffrion (McBain, Pitkanen)
-1 Dwyer, weak on the puck carrier entering the zone and he let the goal-scorer walk freely to a scoring position.
-1 Sutter, as the center he has to pick up on that still-stoppable play.
Harrison, Allen, Skinner even


Totals for the game
-1 Dwyer
-1 Sutter


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-12-2012 at 10:40 PM.
tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2012, 10:26 PM
  #256
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Game 82 @ Florida
1-4 L




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 4:02 Goc (Kulikov, Samuelsson)
-1 Staal, clean faceoff loss and then his man walks unimpeded to the net
-1 Harrison, derping around in the slot
Allen, Jokinen, LaRose even

1st 6:42 Madden (Kopecky, Jovanovski)
-1 McBain... good grief. So much wrong here.
-1 Staal, managed to take both defensemen out of the play there.
Pitkanen, Ruutu, Jokinen? even

3rd 18:36 Samuelsson (Garrison, Goc)
Empty net, no changes.

Totals for the game
-1 Harrison
-1 McBain
-2 Staal


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-12-2012 at 10:38 PM.
tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2012, 10:37 PM
  #257
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-12-2012 at 10:42 PM.
tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2012, 10:51 PM
  #258
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
***FINAL RATINGS***

Player Plus Minus Total Margin Of Error
Forwards
Drayson Bowman 15 3 +12 1
Zach Boychuk 2 1 +1 -
Tim Brent 16 7 +9 3
Zac Dalpe 2 2 even -
Patrick Dwyer 11 6 +5 -
Jussi Jokinen 23 10 +13 1
Chad LaRose 20 12 +8 -
Riley Nash 1 - +1 -
Andreas Nodl 8 3 +5 -
Alexei Ponikarovsky 9 5 +4 -
Tuomo Ruutu 27 10 +17 -
Jerome Samson 3 1 +2 -
Jeff Skinner 26 12 +14 1
Eric Staal 33 22 +11 -
Anthony Stewart 16 8 +8 1
Brandon Sutter 25 10 +15 -
Brett Sutter 3 3 even -
Jiri Tlusty 27 14 +13 1
Defensemen
Bryan Allen 7 20 -13 1
Justin Faulk 7 22 -15 -
Tim Gleason 11 19 -8 1
Jay Harrison 10 29 -19 -
Derek Joslin 3 8 -5 -
Tomas Kaberle 2 10 -8 -
Jamie McBain 17 26 -9 2
Joni Pitkanen 8 13 -5 1
Bobby Sanguinetti 1 - +1 -
Jaroslav Spacek 7 15 -8 -

Of course by "final", I don't really mean completely unchangeable. If you happen to spot something that needs changing, please bring it up so the table can be updated.

A huge, huge "thank you" to everyone who contributed by reviewing games and making suggestions for changes. I hope we can agree that the numbers are generally accurate within a margin of error of about 1-2 points per player.

I'm planning on doing some analysis of these numbers over the summer, asking questions like "how well does +/- represent real contributions?" and "how faithful to reality is the 2-assist system?". If anyone wants to use them for other purposes, feel free.

tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2012, 09:11 AM
  #259
Zombie Mike Murphy
Registered User
 
Zombie Mike Murphy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 737
vCash: 500
I did a normalization run on the final numbers.

These are adjusted based on playing 1200 ES minutes/year. My goal was to adjust for TOI. I couldn't find good Hurricanes-only ES TOI for the players who moved mid-year

Name - Actual SPM - Actual ES TOI - Adjusted SPM
Bowman 12 458 31.4
Boychuk 1 130 9.2
Brent 9 693 15.6
Dalpe 0 138 0
Dwyer 5 957 6.3
Jokinen 13 1071 14.6
LaRose 8 644 14.9
Nash 1 45 26.7
Nodl 5 N/A
Ponikarovsky 4 N/A
Ruutu 17 1003 20.3
Samson 2 176 13.6
Skinner 14 962 17.5
Staal 11 1350 9.8
Stewart 8 597 16.1
Brandon Sutter 15 1198 15
Brett Sutter 0 109 0
Tlusty 13 1032 15.1

Allen -13 1355 -11.5
Faulk -15 1187 -15.2
Gleason -8 1460 -6.6
Harrison -19 1264 -18
Joslin -5 418 -14.4
McBain -9 1259 -8.6
Pitkanen -5 501 -12
Sanguinetti 1 27 44.4
Spacek -8 N/A

Zombie Mike Murphy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2012, 01:02 PM
  #260
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Just curious, what's the "S" in "SPM"?

Interesting to see that Sutter played almost as much as Staal, usually in shutdown assignments, and produced 50% better results.

Also, Tim Gleason has been our best defenseman AINEC.

tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2012, 02:13 PM
  #261
Zombie Mike Murphy
Registered User
 
Zombie Mike Murphy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 737
vCash: 500
Subjective.

Zombie Mike Murphy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2012, 08:27 PM
  #262
tarheelhockey
Global Moderator
 
tarheelhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Country: United States
Posts: 33,238
vCash: 500
Derp. I was reading "PM" as "per minute"

tarheelhockey is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:35 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.