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McShay Mock 5.0 - hate this pick for the Bears
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 2-14 | Top needs: QB, NT, CB, WR, TE, G, DE, LB
Andrew Luck*, QB, StanfordScenario 1: Luck is a once-in-a-generation prospect, and adding him is the best option for a team that is starting over in the post-Peyton Manning era.
Scenario 2: The Colts could pull one of the all-time draft surprises and take Baylor QB Robert Griffin III instead, but that doesn't seem likely after Griffin declined to work out for the team.
Washington Redskins (from STL)
Record: 5-11 | Top needs: QB, ILB, ROT, RB, S, CB, C/G, OLB
Robert Griffin III*, QB, Baylor Scenario 1: The Redskins sent three first-round picks to the St. Louis Rams to move into this spot, and Griffin is their target. He's a perfect fit for coach Mike Shanahan's system.
Scenario 2: Should Indianapolis shock the world, Washington would happily settle for Luck.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-13 | Top needs: OT, WR, S, CB, MLB, DT, OLB, DE
Matt Kalil*, OT, USCScenario 1: The ideal situation for the Vikings would be to get a blockbuster trade offer -- likely from a team looking to get ahead of the Cleveland Browns and draft Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill -- that keeps them in the top 10 and adds another first-round pick. That would allow them to get an offensive tackle such as Iowa's Riley Reiff or a receiver such as Notre Dame's Michael Floyd and address another need later in the first round.
Scenario 2: If Minnesota stays home here, it will be able to add a franchise left tackle in Kalil.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 4-12 | Top needs: RB, WR, QB, ROT, OLB, DE, DT, C/G
Trent Richardson*, RB, AlabamaScenario 1: I've said all along that this pick will decide how much of the rest of the first round plays out, and I still feel that way. From an overall standpoint, Richardson ranks ahead of Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon and Tannehill, in that order, but from a positional-value standpoint the list would be reversed. The Browns face a tough decision, but Richardson is likely to be the pick.
Scenario 2: Blackmon would offer current QB Colt McCoy the kind of perimeter weapon he has been lacking since entering the league.
Scenario 3: Take Tannehill. It all comes down to how Cleveland feels about Tannehill and his potential, and whether the team is content to stand pat with McCoy and build around him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-12 | Top needs: RB, CB, OLB, SS, G, TE, ILB, WR
Morris Claiborne*, CB, LSUScenario 1: Richardson would be the pick if available. The Bucs have LeGarrette Blount, but he has had durability and fumbling issues, and Richardson is the most complete back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson.
Scenario 2: Claiborne is also one of the five elite prospects in this year's class, and his quickness, fluid hips and ball skills would solidify a secondary that faces questions about Ronde Barber (age) and Aqib Talib (off-field issues). Either way, Tampa Bay gets a top player in a major need area.
St. Louis Rams (from WAS)Record: 2-14 | Top needs: WR, OT, DT, CB, RB, LB, QB, S
Justin Blackmon*, WR, Oklahoma StateScenario 1: If Kalil should somehow slip out of the top five, he's the pick. The same could be said of Richardson, as the heir-apparent to Steven Jackson.
Scenario 2: With Kalil gone, Blackmon's size, hands and playmaking ability would give Rams QB Sam Bradford a top playmaker on the outside.
Scenario 3: There is some buzz about the Rams being open to trading down yet again and acquiring even more picks, because as our draft tiers breakdown shows, if the right player is not available there is a drop-off in talent at this point.
Scenario 4: If Claiborne should fall, he would be a consideration for a team that struggled to defend the pass last season.
Scenario 5: The Rams could opt for the top defensive tackle on the board to fill a big need. In this case that would be Mississippi State's Fletcher Cox, who would bring solid versatility and production to the defensive line.
Jacksonville JaguarsRecord: 5-11 | Top needs: WR, DE, C, ROT, CB, OLB, RB, DT
Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South CarolinaScenario 1: If Blackmon should fall this far the Jaguars have to pull the trigger. They've gone far too long without a true No. 1 target in the passing game, and it's hard to fully evaluate second-year QB Blaine Gabbert without proper weapons around him.
Scenario 2: Jacksonville would certainly like to take advantage of a team looking to get ahead of the Miami Dolphins to draft Tannehill. Moving back and adding picks would help a team that has plenty of needs.
Scenario 3: If stuck here, the Jags go with the best available defensive end. General manager Gene Smith likes safer, more proven prospects, so Ingram fits better than North Carolina's Quinton Coples. Ingram is versatile, explosive and shows a knack for making big plays, while Coples has impressive tools but faces questions about his motor and work ethic.
Scenario 4: If he falls in ahead of Ingram on their board, the Jaguars could take Reiff and shore up their offensive line.
Miami DolphinsRecord: 6-10 | Top needs: QB, WR, ROT, S, DE, CB, TE, OLB
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&MScenario 1: Tannehill has all kinds of upside with his athleticism and arm talent, and he played under new Miami offensive coordinator Mike Sherman in college. Getting him is the best-case scenario whether the Dolphins stay put or trade up.
Scenario 2: Should Tannehill be off the board, take the best available offensive player. That's Reiff or Floyd in this case. Reiff would offer a nice bookend opposite current LT Jake Long, and Floyd would add a weapon on the outside.
Scenario 3: Opt for the best defensive player remaining on the board. That could include options such as Ingram, Fletcher Cox, Coples, Boston College ILB Luke Kuechly and Alabama S Mark Barron.
Carolina PanthersRecord: 6-10 | Top needs: CB, OLB, WR, OT, DT, G, DE
Fletcher Cox*, DT, Mississippi State Scenario 1: Coach Ron Rivera needs an impact D lineman at some point, and Cox's versatility, explosiveness and motor would be put to good use.
Scenario 2: Bolster the defensive line with a defensive end such as Ingram if he should be available.
Scenario 3: Take their highest-rated available player at a position of need, whether that's Reiff, Floyd or South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore.
Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10 | Top needs: OT, WR, OLB, CB, QB, TE, ILB, G
Riley Reiff*, OT, Iowa Scenario 1: Reiff falling to this spot is the ideal situation for the Bills, who have not taken an offensive tackle in the first round since selecting Mike Williams fourth overall in 2002. Reiff is technically sound and would help solidify things in front of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Scenario 2: Floyd would be attractive as a physical outside presence opposite current No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson.
Scenario 3: Ignore needs and take advantage of a value pick on defense. Kuechly would offer a good fit in the middle, or if Ingram were available he would bolster the pass rush.
Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 7-9 | Top needs: 3-4 NT, LG, ILB, S, 3-4 OLB, RB, DE, WR/RB/TE
Luke Kuechly*, ILB, Boston CollegeScenario 1: Kuechly is a slam dunk to fill a big need. He can be plugged in next to Derrick Johnson immediately to form one of the best 3-4 inside tandems in the league. He's instinctive, productive and athletic, and he could allow for some scheme versatility.
Scenario 2: Nose tackle is the Chiefs' top need, and Memphis DT Dontari Poe would fit the bill. However, he's likely not the first choice because general manager Scott Pioli prefers proven commodities over prospects with potential. Still, how often does a team get a chance to pick a potentially dominant two-gap nose tackle who can also add some pass-rush potential from the inside.
Scenario 3: Take LSU DT Michael Brockers, who is a better overall player than Poe but who might not be the best fit in the middle in a 3-4.
Scenario 4: Fill a need along the offensive front with Stanford G David DeCastro, who will immediately be one of the best guards in the league.
Scenario 5: Opt for Barron to solidify the secondary.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 7-9 | Top needs: LB, DE, G/ROT, WR, RB, QB, CB, TE
Quinton Coples, DE, North CarolinaScenario 1: Take Kuechly and bring some stability to a linebacker corps that has seen the likes of Julian Peterson, Aaron Curry, David Hawthorne and others come and go in recent years.
Scenario 2: With Kuechly gone, Coples becomes a value pick at this point and will add a versatile presence who can both pressure the quarterback and hold up against the run when his motor is running high.
Scenario 3: Look to need areas elsewhere on offense with DeCastro or Floyd.
Arizona CardinalsRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: ROT, WR, 3-4 OLB, QB, DE, DB, C/G, ILB
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre DameScenario 1: If Reiff is available, he's the pick. The Cardinals have a big hole at offensive tackle, and Reiff is ready to step in immediately.
Scenario 2: With Reiff gone, Floyd would be a solid complement to Larry Fitzgerald, with the hands and downfield ball skills to take advantage of all the attention Fitzgerald attracts.
Scenario 3: Add a quality prospect who can fill a need at 3-4 outside linebacker. Ingram would be a fit if he were available.
Scenario 4: Bring in the best available defensive lineman, whether they feel that's Poe or Brockers.
Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: S, DL, CB, WR, G, RB, OLB, QB
Dontari Poe*, DT, MemphisScenario 1: Defensive line might not seem like the top need, but Poe is the kind of young, versatile talent defensive coordinator Rob Ryan would like to develop. And with Kenyon Coleman on the downside of his career and Jay Ratliff able to move to 5-technique/DE, Poe would bring some depth and flexibility to the defensive front.
Scenario 2: The Cowboys have been searching for some time for a versatile, do-it-all safety who can be a quarterback in the secondary, so Barron could easily be the pick.
Scenario 3: Bring in Floyd to provide QB Tony Romo with another weapon on the outside.
Scenario 4: Brockers is also an option to upgrade the defensive line.
Scenario 5: The Cowboys need to shore things up at cornerback, and at this point Gilmore would be a good fit.
Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: LT, S, OLB, DT, QB, RB, TE, DE
Mark Barron, S, AlabamaScenario 1: The Eagles would love to see Reiff slip to them here, but that won't happen.
Scenario 2: Barron fills one of Philadelphia's top three needs, and the Eagles have lacked a do-everything, physical presence at safety since Brian Dawkins left town.
Scenario 3: Find a way to get a defensive tackle. The Eagles would like it if Cox were available but might look for a more proven commodity at other positions if Brockers is the top tackle on the board. With Barron, Reiff, Cox and Poe gone in this scenario, that could mean trading back and bringing in a player such as Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy while also adding extra picks.
Scenario 4: Don't rule out Kuechly if he should fall this far. Yes, Philadelphia brought in ILB DeMeco Ryans via trade, but Kuechly might be too good to pass and has the ability to move to the outside.
New York JetsRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: OLB, WR, RT, DE, S, RB, ILB, TE
Chandler Jones*, DE, SyracuseScenario 1: Ingram is the ideal choice for New York's 3-4 scheme, but he'll be long gone.
Scenario 2: Reiff would fill a big need as well, but he'll also be off the board.
Scenario 3: Add a bigger receiver who can complement Santonio Holmes. However, with Floyd off the board there's no other receiver worth the pick.
Scenario 4: Trade back and find better value at one of the previously mentioned positions later in the first round.
Scenario 5: If the Jets are stuck here, Jones isn't the ideal pick but is a versatile prospect with good length and pass-rush potential, and he's one of the most underrated players in the entire class.
Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK)Record: 9-7 | Top needs: WR, G, SS, CB, DE, RB, OLB, DT
David DeCastro*, G, StanfordScenario 1: DeCastro is a good value at this point and fills a top need. He can step in right away and help stabilize things in front of second-year QB Andy Dalton.
Scenario 2: If Barron were still on the board, the Bengals would have to think hard about taking him.
Scenario 3: Upgrade at corner with Gilmore.
Scenario 4: Cincinnati could reach for a wide receiver at this point, but is more likely to address that need later in the first round.
San Diego ChargersRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: G, C, S, NT, RT, OLB, DE, RB/WR/TE
Cordy Glenn, OT/G, GeorgiaScenario 1: DeCastro would be the ideal solution at guard, but he's off the board in this projection.
Scenario 2: Barron would also fill a need area if he were available.
Scenario 3: The Chargers need to keep QB Philip Rivers upright, and Glenn provides an upgrade over Jeromey Clary at right tackle. He also has the versatility to play guard and offer an upgrade in the running game as well.
Scenario 4: Opt for the top pass-rusher on their board, whether that's USC's Nick Perry or Alabama's Courtney Upshaw.
Chicago BearsRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: LT, CB, DE, LB, TE, DT, G, S
Stephon Gilmore*, CB, South CarolinaScenario 1: Gilmore could be a top-15 pick, and while he's still developing in terms of instincts he has the size, athleticism and speed to become a No. 1 corner. And a team that will face Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford four times a year has to be able to cover on the perimeter.
Scenario 2: Upgrade at defensive end with Upshaw, who could add to the pass rush and bolster the run defense.
Scenario 3: Address a need at left tackle with Ohio State's Mike Adams or Stanford's Jonathan Martin.
Scenario 4: If Gilmore is off the board the Bears could choose to address their corner need with Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick or North Alabama's Janoris Jenkins. There are character concerns with Jenkins, but he has more man-to-man cover skills than Kirkpatrick.
Tennessee TitansRecord: 9-7 | Top needs: CB, LB, S, OT, DE, RB, WR, DT
Dre Kirkpatrick*, CB, AlabamaScenario 1: Cornerback is the team's top need and the Titans would take Gilmore if he were available.
Scenario 2: Kirkpatrick is a good fit in Tennessee's zone-heavy scheme with his size, toughness and instincts.
Scenario 3: Alabama ILB Dont'a Hightower is a possibility. The Titans have a need at the position, and while they like 2011 draft pick Colin McCarthy there is no other inside linebacker worth taking here.
Scenario 4: Take the highest-rated available tackle offensive tackle on their board, whether that's Martin or Adams.
Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 9-7 | Top needs: WR, G, SS, CB, DE, RB, OLB, DT
Kendall Wright, WR, BaylorScenario 1: Having gotten their guard earlier in the round, Wright fills another big need. He's a dynamic playmaker who can work from the slot or on the outside opposite A.J. Green and take advantage of the attention paid to Green.
Scenario 2: This could be the spot the Bengals address their need at corner, and if any team were going to be comfortable with Jenkins and his baggage it would likely be Cincinnati.
Scenario 3: Trade back, perhaps with a team looking to get ahead of Cleveland and assure itself of getting the quarterback it wants. That would allow the Bengals to move back and fill a need with a better value, such as Miami RB Lamar Miller or Boise State RB Doug Martin or Notre Dame S Harrison Smith.
Cleveland Browns (from ATL)Record: 4-12 | Top needs: RB, WR, QB, RT, OLB, DE, DT, C/G
Jonathan Martin*, OT, StanfordScenario 1: Cleveland would like to see Wright fall here to give McCoy another playmaker to work with.
Scenario 2: Not taking Tannehill in the top five shows a willingness to build around McCoy, and with Wright gone Martin offers a plug-and-play option who is familiar with the West Coast offense and zone-blocking principles.
Scenario 3: Reach for a second-tier quarterback. However, not taking Tannehill makes it unlikely the Browns would reach for a player like Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden, who would be a bigger reach and offer significantly less upside at this point.
Detroit LionsRecord: 10-6 | Top needs: CB, LOT/G, LB, DE, RB, C, S, TE
Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, AlabamaScenario 1: Upgrade at corner if Gilmore and Kirkpatrick are on the board.
Scenario 2: Take the best available pass-rusher, which in this case is Upshaw. The Lions could continue to build their defensive line as the strength of the team with Upshaw's power and pass-rush ability.
Scenario 3: Detroit needs to keep Stafford upright, and Adams has the size, agility and length teams look for in a left tackle. Consistency is a question, but Adams has top-15 talent, and having a veteran tackle such as Jeff Backus to learn from could help him maximize his talent.
Scenario 4: Fill a need at corner with Jenkins, who would be a gamble but is the second-best cover corner in the draft.
Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4 | Top needs: OT/G, CB, NT, ILB, RB, S, QB, WR
Dont'a Hightower*, ILB, AlabamaScenario 1: Hightower is the perfect fit in Pittsburgh's 3-4 scheme with size, speed and the power to control the interior against the run.
Scenario 2: Add Brockers, cashing in on a top-15 value falling down the board and bringing size and power to the defensive line.
Scenario 3: Fill a need at tackle with the best available player, in this case Adams.
Denver BroncosRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: DT, CB, G/C, RB, WR, QB
Michael Brockers*, DT, LSUScenario 1: The Broncos have a glaring need in the middle of their defense, and Brockers is a great fit. He's big and powerful and has good tape, and his best football is still ahead of him.
Scenario 2: Jump on Kirkpatrick if he should fall down the board.
Scenario 3: If the defensive players they value are not available, the Broncos could look trade back and pick up extra selections. That could allow them the luxury of taking Peyton Manning's heir apparent (Brock Osweiler?) in the second round while also addressing a need at running back (Boise State's Doug Martin), corner (Jenkins) or defensive tackle (Washington's Alameda Ta'amu).
Houston TexansRecord: 10-6 | Top needs: WR, ROT, ILB, G, CB, 3-2 OLB
Stephen Hill*, WR, Georgia TechScenario 1: The Texans would like nothing more than to see Wright fall to them and add a dynamic playmaker opposite Andre Johnson.
Scenario 2: Hightower would also be an attractive option if he were available as a replacement for the departed DeMeco Ryans.
Scenario 3: Hill offers a big, fast option who is raw but could form a dangerous tandem with Johnson.
Scenario 4: Take the best available offensive tackle, in this case Adams, to fill the void left by the release of Eric Winston.
New England Patriots (from N.O.)Record: 12-4 | Top needs: DE, S, DT, G/C, CB, SLB, OT, RB
Nick Perry*, DE, USCScenario 1: The Patriots need a pass-rusher, and Perry is the best available option in terms of what they are looking for. He's big enough to fit their system, and his instincts would be a welcome addition after the slow development of Jermaine Cunningham.
Scenario 2: Strengthen the defensive line with Brockers or Worthy, who isn't a prototypical two-gap tackle but is quick and explosive and would fit in New England's flexible scheme. Connecticut DT Kendall Reyes could also be an option.
Scenario 3: Look to the future of the offensive line and take Wisconsin C Peter Konz.
Scenario 4: Begin addressing the secondary with Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, who has risen in recent weeks thanks to solid workouts and good film study.
Scenario 5: Even though there is plenty of value at this point, there is always the chance the Patriots will make a move to add extra picks. That could be especially true this year, with the Patriots having six picks in the top 126 overall, but none in Rounds 5-7. They've had success in the later rounds recently (WR Julian Edelman, K Zoltan Mesko, DE Brandon Deaderick), so picking up selections in that area could have benefits.
Green Bay PackersRecord: 15-1 | Top needs: OLB, S, RB, DE, CB, C, QB, TE
Andre Branch, DE, ClemsonScenario 1: Branch has the versatility to play end or outside linebacker in the Packers' versatile scheme, and the Packers desperately need a pass-rusher who can draw some attention away from OLB Clay Matthews.
Scenario 2: Look to another pass-rusher such as Boise State OLB Shea McClellin or Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus.
Scenario 3: If the Packers don't feel good about any of the pass-rushers available, they could trade back and find value at a position of need, perhaps at running back in Miller or Wilson.
Baltimore RavensRecord: 12-4 | Top needs: G, OLB, LOT, DE, ILB, RB
Harrison Smith, S, Notre DameScenario 1: The Ravens would likely prefer to trade up or back to get better value. In this class moving back five or six spots and adding an extra pick is the better option because the board is thin at their need positions at this point and the Ravens have not historically been a team that reaches for players.
Scenario 2: Smith has the skill to contribute right away, and he would provide a backup plan in the event Ed Reed's durability issues surface again.
Scenario 3: Guard is a need area, and Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler fits the Ravens' tough attitude. Northwestern State's Amini Silatolu is a more talented player, but there are questions about his ability to absorb an NFL system and play immediately.
Scenario 4: Add help at linebacker. There is no inside linebacker worth this pick, but McClellin is the kind of versatile front-seven defender Baltimore can't get enough of.
Scenario 5: Left tackle is also a need, and Adams has the tools to come off the board in this range, but he might not have the grind-it-out-mentality the Ravens look for.
San Francisco 49ersRecord: 13-3 | Top needs: G, DE, CB, WR, OLB, TE, S, ILB
Kendall Reyes, DT, ConnecticutScenario 1: San Francisco would love to see Hill drop to this spot and add a dynamic weapon to the passing game.
Scenario 2: Trade out. Defensive linemen such as Ta'amu and Clemson's Brandon Thompson are not worth the pick, but moving back could allow the Niners to fill a need position with a better value, perhaps Zeitler, Silatolu or a 3-4 defensive lineman.
Scenario 3: They could elect to go with the best defender available, meaning they might get comfortable with Jenkins or look to McClellin to bring some pass-rush help opposite Aldon Smith.
Scenario 4: Reyes might not appear on the surface to be the best fit, but he's a smart, versatile player who can pick up the system quickly and inject some youth into an aging defensive front.
New England PatriotsRecord: 13-3 | Top needs: DE, DT, DB, C, SLB, WR
Jerel Worthy*, DT, Michigan StateGiven the scenarios laid out above, Worthy is the best option in this scenario. His motor runs hot and cold at times, but he has the tools to become a disruptive presence.
New York GiantsRecord: 9-7 | Top needs: OT, RB, LB, DT, DE, S
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio StateScenario 1: Given their need at the position and Adams' impressive natural tools, he's hard to pass up at this point.
Scenario 2: Take advantage of value and make a luxury pick for a player such as Stanford TE Coby Fleener or Nebraska OLB Lavonte David.
Scenario 3: If there are teams looking to get into the back end of the first round (possibly to get a quarterback), the Giants could get a trade that allows them to move out of the pick and still get value at need positions in the second round.
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