The thing is, the year before in 2009-2010 he produced like a legit top 6er as well - so he isn't a one year mystery.
Quote:
MATT MOULSON JOHN TAVARES PA PARENTEAU 16.37%
MATT MOULSON JOHN TAVARES KYLE OKPOSO 10.74%
MICHAEL GRABNER FRANS NIELSEN KYLE OKPOSO 8.1%
MICHAEL GRABNER FRANS NIELSEN PA PARENTEAU 4.63%
...
Grabbed this off left wing lock, unless I missed something (tired), those were PA's two lines. Would look like he spent the majority of the season riding shotgun with them. I'm a Parenteau fan don't get me wrong I know he has talent, but players like him and Garrison, logging big minutes on weaker teams scare me when they turn UFA.
I've got no idea what Gillis will do next year but changes have to be made: small retool, large retool or full rebuild. The angry part of me that wants a major kaboom and to start a fresh rebuild while our players have value. But is that sensible when you stand back and look?
We have back to back PTs, got to game 7 of the SCF with the best half of the roster injured, so as angry as I might be atm a full rebuild is just being reactionary to the last week. We might not see a Canuck team as good for another 40 years, we didn't see one in the previous 40, so we should at least try and milk it for another year or two.
So lets evaluate how long we have left: 1-2 years and this core is cooked IMHO. The team is locked in for 12-13, then we have UFA issues to start 13-14 and the Sedins are UFAs after 13-14. If the team is struggling 13-14 we should look at moving the Sedins etc at the deadline for picks: it's cup or bust at that point so if we can't win it then get assets.
So our needs for the next 2 years: clutch top 6 scorer, top 6 playmaker, #1 Dman, PP QB. That's kind of an ugly list because it is rather big and the players rather hard to get.
Assets
Goalies: Luongo ($5.3m) or Schneider (rfa)
must be moved: Malhotra, Ballard, Raymond, Alberts ($10.45m)
Possible to moved: Booth (not working with Kesler) ($4.25m)
release: Salo ($2m)
Surprise trade options: Kesler* (5m), Edler** ($3.25m)
NTCs: Bieksa ($4.6m)
* before his NTC kicks in
** replace with a #1 D.
In a miracle world(<5% chance) we add Parise, Suter and J. Schultz which would actually plug 3 holes for about ~$16m, about the same price as (Luongo, Malhotra, Ballard, Raymond, Alberts ($15.8m).
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($2.000m)
Zach Parise ($7.500m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Chris Higgins ($1.900m) / Samuel Pahlsson ($2.250m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.925m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Anton Rodin ($0.900m)
Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m)
Ryan Suter ($7.500m) / Justin Schultz ($1.000m)
Alexander Edler ($3.250m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Aaron Rome ($0.800m)
GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($3.500m)
Eddie Lack ($0.900m)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $430,000
I've chucked a few too many rookies in there because it'd be nice for once to see some youth on the team but they could easily be depth plugs like Weise for a cheaper more reliable option.
Overall the D is much better, Parise improves the 2nd line a lot but we are still missing a top 6 play maker. Kassian would drop down a line for Higgins in reality.
TBH that team is much much better than the current one, but is it better enough? I am not so sure, it still needs a better top 6 forward and maybe a more offensive 3rd centre. If the cap goes up we could move Kesler to the 3rd line instead of Pahlsson and look for a scoring centre. So if anyone knows of a top 6 play making centre for cheap or even a RW . Even Edler could be trade bait for that centre if we had LS side D of Suter and Hamhuis.
I think they're just gassed to be honest. That and some poor cap management especially this year. Booth at 4+, Ballard at 4+, Malhotra at 2+. That's 3 highly ineffective players consuming approximately 11 million in cap space. It's just highly uncharacteristic of a team run by Gillis and Gilman who preach Moneypuck principles to do stuff like that but it remains to be seen how this offseason unfolds.
I think they're just gassed to be honest. That and some poor cap management especially this year. Booth at 4+, Ballard at 4+, Malhotra at 2+. That's 3 highly ineffective players consuming approximately 11 million in cap space. It's just highly uncharacteristic of a team run by Gillis and Gilman who preach Moneypuck principles to do stuff like that but it remains to be seen how this offseason unfolds.
I think Booth is a fair deal, tbh. But that 2nd line desperately needs someone who can make a pass for a change. Unfortunately, that's where Sammy used to come in. And Kassian isn't good enough for that yet.
The biggest mistake this season IMO was not trying Cody on Kesler's RW enough. He had what, one or two games at most? Considering how long AV screwed with lines, there should've been enough time to see what he could do slotted over there. Granted he's not fast, but to simply have a guy to know what to do other than wrist it would be great.
Or Gillis could've acquire an impact-now player instead with Cody.
Kesler for Skinner and Sutter? Would anyone do that if Carolina sniffed glue and accepted?
I would.
The $5 million dollar question.
What to do with Kesler should the nucks bow out now.
Love the guy but it concerns me how we are in perpetual "find Kesler a line mate" mode.
It also concerns me how he seems to go into a shell almost and tries to do everything himself as if his line mates aren't good enough. Fans lauded this last year during NSH but at times it seems to hurt more than help and he can only do that for so long.
I think they're just gassed to be honest. That and some poor cap management especially this year. Booth at 4+, Ballard at 4+, Malhotra at 2+. That's 3 highly ineffective players consuming approximately 11 million in cap space. It's just highly uncharacteristic of a team run by Gillis and Gilman who preach Moneypuck principles to do stuff like that but it remains to be seen how this offseason unfolds.
I don't mind Booth at 4.25. I think he fills a niche that we otherwise lack, someone who can dangle and go hard to the net every damn time. I don't think you get much better at that price via trade or UFA. If you want a bargain (e.g. Eriksson, Callahan, Lucic) you have to grow your own. Maybe we can with Kassian or Jensen, but that's while off.
Malhotra can't really be blamed on Gillis. The pre- eye injury Malhotra was aweome, shutting down top lines left, right and centre. Totally unforeseeable event, and given how awesome he seems to be in the locker room, i'm not sure asking him to waive the NTC (which Gillis has stated is a no-no) is the best course. Luckily the contract end before we have to pay Edler.
Ballard I agree. I really want him to do well as he seems like such a nice dude, but he just isn't worth it. I could stomach ~< 2M for what he brings to the table but 4.2 is just brutal. Ballard over Ehrhoff was I think the only blatant mistake MG has made thus far.
What to do with Kesler should the nucks bow out now.
Love the guy but it concerns me how we are in perpetual "find Kesler a line mate" mode.
It also concerns me how he seems to go into a shell almost and tries to do everything himself as if his line mates aren't good enough. Fans lauded this last year during NSH but at times it seems to hurt more than help and he can only do that for so long.
So would you do that trade with Carolina?
It's not only find Kesler a linemate mode, we need another legit top 6 player outside of the Sedins and Kesler.
I dont see Booth as one. I could see a guy like Skinner being one and perhaps Sutter as well.
Sutter appears to be on a similar path as Kesler in terms of his production in each of their first three full seasons.
I don't mind Booth at 4.25. I think he fills a niche that we otherwise lack, someone who can dangle and go hard to the net every damn time. I don't think you get much better at that price via trade or UFA. If you want a bargain (e.g. Eriksson, Callahan, Lucic) you have to grow your own. Maybe we can with Kassian or Jensen, but that's while off.
Malhotra can't really be blamed on Gillis. The pre- eye injury Malhotra was aweome, shutting down top lines left, right and centre. Totally unforeseeable event, and given how awesome he seems to be in the locker room, i'm not sure asking him to waive the NTC (which Gillis has stated is a no-no) is the best course. Luckily the contract end before we have to pay Edler.
Ballard I agree. I really want him to do well as he seems like such a nice dude, but he just isn't worth it. I could stomach ~< 2M for what he brings to the table but 4.2 is just brutal. Ballard over Ehrhoff was I think the only blatant mistake MG has made thus far.
In fairness to MG, look at what Ehrhoff got on the open market. Forget his cap hit, his base salary was $10 million for this last season.
$10,000,000.
For 82 games of Ehrhoff.
That's so far out of line with everyone else there's no way MG could do that without massively increasing the price of everyone in the end. What's Edler going to want if we kept Error at $10 freaking million? And Ballard has obviously been a major flop for the price.
Hrmph. Thinking about Edler right now makes me angry. Need to sleep and detox.
In fairness to MG, look at what Ehrhoff got on the open market. Forget his cap hit, his base salary was $10 million for this last season.
$10,000,000.
For 82 games of Ehrhoff.
That's so far out of line with everyone else there's no way MG could do that without massively increasing the price of everyone in the end. What's Edler going to want if we kept Error at $10 freaking million? And Ballard has obviously been a major flop for the price.
Hrmph. Thinking about Edler right now makes me angry. Need to sleep and detox.
It sure is a lot, but I really do not see the relevance of the yearly salary. It's the same logic that had people saying Luongo isn't good enough for 10M. His impact on the team and the roster make up is 5.3, not 10.
Fair point on the perception issue though. I understand and agree with MG not giving Ehrhoff the length of contract he got in BUF. But I would have been comfortable with anything up to 5-5.2M-ish, 6 years. That takes him through to 35, when he can still probably get another contract. Of course I have no way of knowing whether that is something that MG offered, but if he didn't then I would consider that a mistake. As for Edler, unless he continues this downward spiral, I think we're going to have to pay him bulk cash anyway. I don't think a front loaded contract to an older Ehrhoff would have upped the price to the point of crippling us.
It's not only find Kesler a linemate mode, we need another legit top 6 player outside of the Sedins and Kesler.
I dont see Booth as one. I could see a guy like Skinner being one and perhaps Sutter as well.
Sutter appears to be on a similar path as Kesler in terms of his production in each of their first three full seasons.
Haven't really though about trading Kesler much to be honest but both those guys would be excellent additions. Not sure if that deal could be worked out.
As for Booth hed be close to top 120 in scoring had he played a full season with his rate over the season. I wouldn't say he's not a 2nd liner. However it appears to me there are struggles with him and Kelser being similar. Like Kesler if they had a suitable playmaker he'd probably be scoring more.
I think that's whats most frustrating is watching these two guy play on their own at times.
It sure is a lot, but I really do not see the relevance of the yearly salary. It's the same logic that had people saying Luongo isn't good enough for 10M. His impact on the team and the roster make up is 5.3, not 10.
Fair point on the perception issue though. I understand and agree with MG not giving Ehrhoff the length of contract he got in BUF. But I would have been comfortable with anything up to 5-5.2M-ish, 6 years. That takes him through to 35, when he can still probably get another contract. Of course I have no way of knowing whether that is something that MG offered, but if he didn't then I would consider that a mistake. As for Edler, unless he continues this downward spiral, I think we're going to have to pay him bulk cash anyway. I don't think a front loaded contract to an older Ehrhoff would have upped the price to the point of crippling us.
What is relevant is having one super long front loaded contract already.
Kesler for Skinner and Sutter? Would anyone do that if Carolina sniffed glue and accepted?
I would.
Absolutely I would. We would know exactly what we would gain in Sutter, a consistent even strength 3rd line centerman and a very good winger still developing.
I'd rather have a hole at the second line center position rather than having Kesler, who masked his own problems and the Canucks problems by scoring so many power play goals last year.
We need a 2nd line center who produces consitently. I take a consistent center over an extremely streaky center every single time, even if/when the streaky counter part is strong enough to take over series.
How many of you would trade Kesler for a Pominville-like centerman? I know I would.
Edit: To add to my point, my reason for wanting to replace Kesler with a more consistent version is because trading the Sedins is almost impossible due to cap implication and the fact no team has the assets for them. Correspondingly, the only way for us to win with the Sedins, who I believe are still in their prime, is to supplement them with a consistent 2nd line to keep other teams honest. It's too easy to shut down a one line team when the rest of the team is no threat to score.
Last edited by shortshorts: 04-15-2012 at 05:40 AM.
Kesler for Skinner and Sutter? Would anyone do that if Carolina sniffed glue and accepted?
I would.
I wouldn't make that trade (although I doubt Carolina would either.. But maybe given keslers marketability in the states). He's had a tough year coming off injury with rotating line mates.. I think next year with a more solid roster and training camp he'll be a lot closer to the player we saw in the Nashville series. And if he can use his teammates a bit better, then he'll be just about untouchable.
It's not only find Kesler a linemate mode, we need another legit top 6 player outside of the Sedins and Kesler.
I dont see Booth as one. I could see a guy like Skinner being one and perhaps Sutter as well.
Sutter appears to be on a similar path as Kesler in terms of his production in each of their first three full seasons.
Neither team would do that trade. Carolina will keep its far younger assets that are still improving. Vancouver, whilst in its "window," keeps the far more proven asset in Kesler.
Another legit top6 player aside from the Sedins and Kesler? We have them. They are: Burrows, Higgins, and Booth. These guys are legit top6'ers based on production. Hansen on the cusp. Prior to this year, I would have said Raymond was one as well. What the team actually needs is one or two playmaking forwards. Players who can drive the offense with skill. Set up teammates. But even then, it's the rich getting richer.
What we are really saying is that the core group of forwards isn't good enough, and that you need to stack a team so much that their deficiencies will be overcome by the depth.
I actually think this is the way MG goes if the team gets bounced here. Keep the 6 I mentioned, but then continue to supplement them. Who knows? Maybe Kassian takes a step next year. Or, Schroeder comes up. Samuelsson returns. The point being that MG needs to stack the team and take pressure off the Sedins and Kesler.
Neither team would do that trade. Carolina will keep its far younger assets that are still improving. Vancouver, whilst in its "window," keeps the far more proven asset in Kesler.
Another legit top6 player aside from the Sedins and Kesler? We have them. They are: Burrows, Higgins, and Booth. These guys are legit top6'ers based on production. Hansen on the cusp. Prior to this year, I would have said Raymond was one as well. What the team actually needs is one or two playmaking forwards. Players who can drive the offense with skill. Set up teammates. But even then, it's the rich getting richer.
What we are really saying is that the core group of forwards isn't good enough, and that you need to stack a team so much that their deficiencies will be overcome by the depth.
I actually think this is the way MG goes if the team gets bounced here. Keep the 6 I mentioned, but then continue to supplement them. Who knows? Maybe Kassian takes a step next year. Or, Schroeder comes up. Samuelsson returns. The point being that MG needs to stack the team and take pressure off the Sedins and Kesler.
While I agree about the idea of supplementing the team with more offense, however, the main problem with our offence is evident. It has been evident that Kesler, starting from the final 1/3 of last season's, is just not an even strength producer. He was the one who benefited the most from the insane powerplay we had running. His even strength points from last season and this season are that of a third liner and that is completely unacceptable. In my opinion, the only way we win a cup is to create room for the Sedins. The only way we can do that is to keep the opposing team honest, which is by having a secondary scoring line during 5v5.
The other main problem with Kesler is when he isn't winning games for us, he's making it much harder for us. He's either the motor that runs the second line, or he's the anchor that drowns it. Raymond by no means is a spectacular player, however Raymond is a quality(yeah yeah, no one cares that he falls) second liner in this league and does create many chances with his speed. Booth by no means is a spectacular player, however again is a quality second liner. Higgins by no means is a spectacular player, however again is a good second line compliment. None of these players can get it going when Kesler isn't getting his way.
While I agree about the idea of supplementing the team with more offense, however, the main problem with our offence is evident. It has been evident that Kesler, starting from the final 1/3 of last season's, is just not an even strength producer. He was the one who benefited the most from the insane powerplay we had running. His even strength points from last season and this season are that of a third liner and that is completely unacceptable. In my opinion, the only way we win a cup is to create room for the Sedins. The only way we can do that is to keep the opposing team honest, which is by having a secondary scoring line during 5v5.
The other main problem with Kesler is when he isn't winning games for us, he's making it much harder for us. He's either the motor that runs the second line, or he's the anchor that drowns it. Raymond by no means is a spectacular player, however Raymond is a quality(yeah yeah, no one cares that he falls) second liner in this league and does create many chances with his speed. Booth by no means is a spectacular player, however again is a quality second liner. Higgins by no means is a spectacular player, however again is a good second line compliment. None of these players can get it going when Kesler isn't getting his way.
I see your point. Kesler is not a natural ES producer. He comes at it with a checker's mentality, relying on his tenacity and speed to create offense. More natural top6'ers use their positioning and savvy to create chances. It's a different way of approaching the game.
Booth is similar to Kesler. However, Booth has a better ability to create secondary shots because he carries the puck closer to the net before shooting -- That helps a lot.
I too think Kesler's lack of production at ES is a big reason why this team doesn't generate enough offense, but he's not the sole cause. The forward corps just doesn't look all that skilled to me. Not a lot of creativity or vision there - hence, low scoring. Now I know the counter-arguments: presidents trophy, 249 goals for, led the west, etc... The D scoring definitely masks things. I'm talking about just the forwards. They just don't seem like all that skilled a group to me.
I see your point. Kesler is not a natural ES producer. He comes at it with a checker's mentality, relying on his tenacity and speed to create offense. More natural top6'ers use their positioning and savvy to create chances. It's a different way of approaching the game.
Booth is similar to Kesler. However, Booth has a better ability to create secondary shots because he carries the puck closer to the net before shooting -- That helps a lot.
I too think Kesler's lack of production at ES is a big reason why this team doesn't generate enough offense, but he's not the sole cause. The forward corps just doesn't look all that skilled to me. Not a lot of creativity or vision there - hence, low scoring. Now I know the counter-arguments: presidents trophy, 249 goals for, led the west, etc... The D scoring definitely masks things. I'm talking about just the forwards. They just don't seem like all that skilled a group to me.
I do agree that you win Cups with players like Kesler. However, you win the cup with players like Kesler as a complimentary piece, not a core piece. When the team looks for a important goal they look towards the Sedins, who are shut down by the other team's top defensive unit. Then they look towards Kesler, who scores the majority of his goals on the Powerplay..
Burrows is our best forward at scoring at opportune times, especially during even strength.
Again, reiterating, because of what you call "a different approach to offence", I just don't think having Kesler as our second line center and being a go-to guy is viable for a Stanley cup contender. So in my opinion, Kesler is the main problem to the Canucks. Him scoring 40 and 70 points last year only masked the problems we had going into the playoffs.
A possible solution, is adding another star player (which is no easy task...) to help with Kesler's ES production, but in response we must tear down the depth we have in our third and fourth lines. If we were to do that however, I think the benefits outweigh the negatives.
Last edited by shortshorts: 04-15-2012 at 08:12 AM.
But what happens if we find Schneider can't carry a full time job? Who do we put in then? Another minor league tender with even more risk? We like Cory now because of his stats but I'm sure Luongo would have just as good numbers if he only played thirty games a season. We love to rip Gillis for these rushed trades (eg. Hodgson) and yet you think he should pull the trigger with the first team he finds who would take his contract? Roberto is only 33 and in my opinion, if he can still keep our guys in games - who cares if he is past this imaginary line we call prime? If it's not broken, why try and fix it?
You're right, Luongo is only 33 and still keeping his team in games however they have to make a decision on Schneider and either way there's risk involved. Is Schneider the real deal? What if Luongo declines, are you prepared to launch Lack into a prominent role? If not Lack, who would you chase for that? I believe Schneider is the real deal, he's proven it at every level he's played at and along with Bernier stands to be the hot commodity as far as the market goes. In a cap world, if you can get younger and slightly cheaper (they have to resign Schneider) without a drop off in results, you absolutely have to do it.
Some people here are talking about moving Kesler and it would be interesting if Gills made a bold move similar to Holmgren trading Richards and Carter last summer. That appears to be working out great for the Flyers and both players. It was their time to move on and the return was substantial.
Also, please no Mactavish. I could see AV end up back in Montreal win or lose but Mactavish is not the answer.
Anyway, my original post was more about expressing my observations based on the regular season and 2 playoff games to date without wanting to entirely jump to potential moves for next season. I'm not completely writing off the series, though in my mind it is highly unlikely they'll come back as the Kings without question have the horses to close this thing out.
I would love it if we picked up R. Suter this year and then Weber next year. And yes I know this is a dream so I'm doing this just for fun. We'd have to make some serious room for cap reasons but I think with some bold moves it could be done.
Move out:
Luongo (5.3)
Ballard (4.2)
Salo (2.0)
Raymond (2.5)
Malholtra (2.5)
Total = 16.5m
*Re-sign (Net Change in cap space):
Schneider @ 4m/year (-3.1m)
Edler @ 5m/year (-2.75m)
Burrows @ 4m/year (-2.0m)
C. Tanev @2m/year (-1.1)
*Not including players who could be re-signed for the same contract they are on now or replaced with similar players to similar contracts.
D. Sedin (6.1) - H. Sedin (6.1) - Burrows (4.0)
D. Booth (4.25) - R. Kesler (5.0) - Zack Kassian (0.870)
C. Higgins (1.9) - M. Lapierre (1.0) - J. Hansen (1.35)
B. Bitz (0.7) - A. Ebbett (0.500) - A. Volpatti (0.61)
S. Reinprecht (1.0)
Forwards = 33.38m
R. Suter (7.0) - S. Weber (7.0)
D. Hamhuis (4.5) - K. Bieksa (4.6)
A. Edler (5.0) - C. Tanev (2.0)
A. Rome (900k)
Defense = 31m
Cory Schneider (4.00)
E. Lack (1.0)
Goalies = 5m
Total cap hit = 69.38m
Cap right now is 64m, so we'd need a combination of the cap going up and/or clearing out 5m more in salary. I'm expecting the cap will likely stay the same this year with the new CBA as there was higher revenue this year but they are expecting the cap revenue % to go down. Next year the cap might go up again another 2-3m. So we'd just need to clear another 2-3m in salaries. With Weber and Suter, it would probably be ok to move Edler as Weber and Suter both eat up a lot of minutes.
All players moved out would be traded for picks/prospects to help keep the cycle of upcoming talent coming.
or even a RW 
