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Odds of Schneider being poached via Offer Sheets?

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Old
04-17-2012, 07:35 PM
  #1
chasespace
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Odds of Schneider being poached via Offer Sheets?

$1,034,249 annual cap hit or less: No compensation
$1,034,249 $1,567,043: Third-round pick
$1,567,043 $3,134,088: Second-round pick
$3,134,088 $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
$4,701,131 $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick
$6,268,175 $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third
$7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks

Those are the compensations based on caphit

Ideally, if a team were to try and poach him, they would aim for the $4.5million range so they only have to give up a first and a third. Vancouver would be hesitant to match that as they would then have 2 goalies being paid as a #1.

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04-17-2012, 08:16 PM
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belair
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Very good.

This is why Schneider apologized after criticizing Edmonton via the Canadian Press.

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04-17-2012, 08:23 PM
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palindrom
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1. These number are 2011 number, they should be higher next summer if the cap rise.

2. The only logical way Schneider reach an offersheet is if his trade value is not better than the offer sheet compensation. Since most of us doesn't agree with his trade value..i let everyone judge the odds of that.

Logically if most teams are lining up to give their best players, prospects or a lottery pick for Schneider, no way he reach an offer sheet.
if no team is willing to give a good offer enough for Schneider..then the offer sheet Scenario is probable.

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04-17-2012, 08:29 PM
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I would imagine a team like TB or CLB that really need a goalie would offer him a Halak type contract, would cost them a 1st and 3rd. Van can't afford 3.75M/4yrs on a backup, it would definitely pressure them into a trade for less. Unless its Burke, who will give more than the offer sheet value because he's principled.

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04-17-2012, 08:35 PM
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04-17-2012, 08:38 PM
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Odds are very very high unless Vancouver can somehow convince a team to take on Luongo's contract and he accepts a trade. If I were Gillis, I'd be doing whatever it takes to move Luongo for a bag of pucks the moment they are eliminated from the playoffs otherwise they can kiss Schneider goodbye. The time to make a choice appears to have arrived.

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04-17-2012, 08:40 PM
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Pierre Dagenais
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There is a 0% chance that he gets paid $4.5 million next year

I wouldn't give him more than 3.5

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04-17-2012, 08:44 PM
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belair
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justabrah View Post
Not happening, but people need dreams.
Unless Vancouver has got Cory Schneider by the nuts, they don't have any control over whether or not it happens.

As a fan you can only hope he doesn't have the hunger for a starting job in the NHL or millions of dollars a year. But the fact that you or I would never be interested in millions of dollars gives me hope that Schneider will still be Vancouver's backup next season.

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04-17-2012, 08:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
There is a 0% chance that he gets paid $4.5 million next year

I wouldn't give him more than 3.5
I agree with this and if the Jackets had plans of offering him a offer sheet, I hope it's only for $3.5/year.

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04-17-2012, 09:16 PM
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The goalie market is so weak this offseason and there are a number of teams that could use a starter. Stupid contracts get handed out every year, and Schneider at 4.5m wouldn't be the worst depending on the length of the deal. Why not make a one year offer for 4.5m?

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04-17-2012, 09:22 PM
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deckercky
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If you're hoping to get him on an offer sheet at $3.5, then the Canucks would probably accept and run both goalies again.

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04-17-2012, 09:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
If you're hoping to get him on an offer sheet at $3.5, then the Canucks would probably accept and run both goalies again.
Agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukeshot View Post
Why not make a one year offer for 4.5m?
Canucks would match that IMO, we can take 4.5 for one year. It's when it's 4.5 for ~3 years that it becomes an issue.

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04-17-2012, 09:40 PM
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palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
If you're hoping to get him on an offer sheet at $3.5, then the Canucks would probably accept and run both goalies again.
Well, it have been discussed many time before...

Most teams are fine with Vancouver matching. You just try the offer-sheet and see. Vancouver matching take Schneider off the market for a full year and make him avaible as UFA summer 2013.

Then teams interested will try again to sign Schneider summer 2013 as UFA, without having to give any compensation. The team who want him more then and willing to give him more $ should get him.

Everyone is happy.

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04-17-2012, 09:52 PM
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I have a funny feeling the whole Cory Schneider situation is resolved well before July 1st.

Either

1) The Canucks re-sign Schneider and deal Luongo. Part of this would likely be if Luongo indicated a desire to start anew elsewhere (Sick of being scapegoated by fans/coaches etc.). I'd give this a 30% chance of happening.

2) The Canucks deal Schneider (Likely out of conference) and re-affirm their faith in Luongo as #1. This would likely be if Schneider says to the Canucks, "I appreciate my time here and the opportunity, but I'm ready to be a #1 goalie in the NHL and won't sign any contract given to me by Vancouver." I'd say there's about a 40% chance this is the scenario.

3) With the uncertainty of the CBA, Schneider signs a 1-year deal (Somewhere in the neighbourhood of $4 million) to stay with the Canucks and platoons with Luongo another year. I'd put this at 30%.

Personally, if I'm the Canucks, I go with option 1. Because if you deal Schneider and he takes another team to the Cup, the fans will continue to get on Luongo. But if you deal Luongo and he goes on and wins a Cup elsewhere, you can at least spin that it was a deal about opening up cap space. I just think the optics of dealing Schneider and keeping Luongo might be bad.

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04-17-2012, 10:01 PM
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Do you honestly believe Mike Gillis is that stupid that he won't trade him before July 1st if he can't trade Luongo first? He's not that dumb people!

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04-17-2012, 10:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukeshot View Post
The goalie market is so weak this offseason and there are a number of teams that could use a starter. Stupid contracts get handed out every year, and Schneider at 4.5m wouldn't be the worst depending on the length of the deal. Why not make a one year offer for 4.5m?
No team is going to give up draft pick assets for a one year deal with Schneider. Also if I'm not mistaken, he turns 27 towards the end of next season and would become a UFA unless it's changed in the next CBA.

He may still be an offer sheet target this offseason but it will be for a multiyear contract.

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04-17-2012, 10:03 PM
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caley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Falconator View Post
Do you honestly believe Mike Gillis is that stupid that he won't trade him before July 1st if he can't trade Luongo first? He's not that dumb people!
Though, if you believe Ed Willes of The Province, it might not be Gillis making the decision. He seemed to believe there's a chance Mike Gillis moves upstairs and becomes president and turns the GM job over to Laurence Gilman or someone else.

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04-17-2012, 10:06 PM
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tgo0
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If a team signs a player to an offer sheet do they have to give up THEIR draft picks (ie EDM 1st overall) or can they give up any pick they have in that round (ie. TB can give DET's 1st rd pick instead of their own)

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04-17-2012, 10:14 PM
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palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgo0 View Post
If a team signs a player to an offer sheet do they have to give up THEIR draft picks (ie EDM 1st overall) or can they give up any pick they have in that round (ie. TB can give DET's 1st rd pick instead of their own)
Offer sheet come after the draft, i guess all compensation are 2013 pick. It must be the team original pick.

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04-17-2012, 10:15 PM
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Either Schneider or Luongo will be traded long before this scenario is even possible.

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04-17-2012, 10:18 PM
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I could see it if not for the uncertainty of the next CBA, which could mean no offer sheet for Schneider...who could get it if not for that.

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04-17-2012, 10:19 PM
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I hope the Devils seriously pursue him. Marty is almost done for good.

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04-17-2012, 10:21 PM
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tgo0
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Offer sheet come after the draft, i guess all compensation are 2013 pick. It must be the team original pick.
Thanks. Brain fart that the draft is before FA.

Assumed this was the case otherwise teams like TOR would have traded a later pick rather than the 2nd overall 2 yeras ago.

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04-17-2012, 10:21 PM
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chasespace
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgo0 View Post
If a team signs a player to an offer sheet do they have to give up THEIR draft picks (ie EDM 1st overall) or can they give up any pick they have in that round (ie. TB can give DET's 1st rd pick instead of their own)
The compensation would be picks for drafts following the player signing the offer sheet(if he signs July 1st 2012 the picks will be awarded in 2013) and if I remember correctly they have to be the team's picks, not acquired ones.

If Schneider doesn't have a deal signed by July 1st and Vancouver is putting a hefty price tag on him it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for all the bidding teams to throw a multi-year offer sheet his way so they only give up a first and third as opposed to a first+top prospect/current top 4/6 player.

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04-17-2012, 10:25 PM
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palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian54 View Post
Canucks would match that IMO, we can take 4.5 for one year. It's when it's 4.5 for ~3 years that it becomes an issue.
Why 3 years is more an issue than 1 year?

Would you rather keep Schneider 1 year at 4.5$ millions then he become UFA

Or keep him 3 years ? (Vancouver could trade him summer 2013).

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