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Odds of Schneider being poached via Offer Sheets?

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Old
04-18-2012, 05:34 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Thats not entirely accurate. The % of RFAs that accept offer sheets is low. We have no idea how many offer sheets are actually given.
Which should tell you something. People are talking like Schneider exists in a vacuum, you just have to send him a 'smart' offersheet and he'll sign it. It doesn't really work that way, offersheets are more leverage in contract negotiations. Schneider isn't just going to sign your 1 year $3.5M offersheet out of the blue, he'll forward it to the Canucks and say "I got this offer from team X, what are you going to do about it?"

If that's the best RFA offersheet available and he knows Vancouver will match, which is the Canucks leverage in these negotiations, why not just sign the same contract directly with Vancouver? This way he doesn't handcuff himself to be stuck behind Luongo for another year, Vancouver may not do it but the trade option still remains open through the season.

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04-18-2012, 05:42 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by stryfe604 View Post
Malone can be traded next season, St. Louis is got maybe 3 years in him, and Vinny will die in a Bolts jersey. And you ask how much longer does Stamkos have being in his prime? the kid is 22 years old. Even using your logic he has about 8 years left. Where is Lou in 8 years? Hell even in 3 or 4? Tampa isn't in win now scenario, watch interviews by SFY. Schneider brings you over payment, Lou brings you under payment, and the chances of Schneider being moved is way higher than Lou.

EDIT: Stamkos, Hedman, Aulie, Conacher, Panik, Barberio, Tik, Gudas, Mikkellson, Lee, Pyatt, Thompson, Tyrell, J.T. Brown. Just to name a few BTW
Stamkos just won the Richard. You're right. He's 22. Right about the time that elite snipers usually peak. And he'll be about that good for about 5 or 6 more years. None of the other young players you listed are anywhere near as good as Stamkos and many of them won't even be NHL regulars. This is the cast of young players you want to grow as a young team with and therefore MUST have a young goalie to grow with them?

Sorry. But that makes little sense. Your team is ready to take the next step. They need a goalie and bit more stability on the blueline. Waiting for Panik or Gudas or Tyrell to mature is good way to get fired as a GM.

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04-18-2012, 06:47 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by stryfe604 View Post
The bold points. Vancouver is stuck between a rock and a hard place with this situation. Either find someone to take Lou's contract, convince Schneider to remain a back up for one more year and actively try to move Lou in that time, keep Lou and move Schneider during the draft, or see what goes down with offer sheets. It's delusional to think Gillis or Vancouver is in a position of power here. The only thing Vancouver is sure about is they will still have a top class goalie at the end of it.
Ya to be honest im not sure about the other canuck fans, but while i would prefer to keep schneider if we can, im comfortable rolling into next season with luo in net.

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04-19-2012, 03:51 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Stamkos just won the Richard. You're right. He's 22. Right about the time that elite snipers usually peak. And he'll be about that good for about 5 or 6 more years. None of the other young players you listed are anywhere near as good as Stamkos and many of them won't even be NHL regulars. This is the cast of young players you want to grow as a young team with and therefore MUST have a young goalie to grow with them?

Sorry. But that makes little sense. Your team is ready to take the next step. They need a goalie and bit more stability on the blueline. Waiting for Panik or Gudas or Tyrell to mature is good way to get fired as a GM.
Out of that list I will give you Tyrell, but Panik and Conacher could easily make the team. Panik if nit this coming up year, the year after he is in. Watch some A games and you will see how close they are. Btw didn't mention Connolly either.

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04-19-2012, 04:03 AM
  #80
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There is a 0% chance Schneider gets poached.

If Canucks can't get him under contract before July 1st, they'll take him to arbitration.

This means no team will be able to offer sheet him.

They'll then decide whether to pay him his arbitration award or walk away. You can be sure they'll pay whatever he gets awarded..... take it to the bank. And then they'll decide whether to trade Schneider or Luongo.

End of thread....

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04-19-2012, 04:42 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Thats not entirely accurate. The % of RFAs that accept offer sheets is low. We have no idea how many offer sheets are actually given.
I stand corrected. I still think it is an extremely low percentage of RFA's who get offer sheets.

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04-19-2012, 04:49 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by clyankees47 View Post
There is a 0% chance Schneider gets poached.

If Canucks can't get him under contract before July 1st, they'll take him to arbitration.

This means no team will be able to offer sheet him.
It have been discussed and verified a million time! Schneider cant be protected from offer sheet by Team elected arbitration. (Schneider situation is not comparable to Weber).

Do you want link to these discussion ?

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04-19-2012, 05:01 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by chasespace View Post
$1,034,249 annual cap hit or less: No compensation
$1,034,249 $1,567,043: Third-round pick
$1,567,043 $3,134,088: Second-round pick
$3,134,088 $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
$4,701,131 $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick
$6,268,175 $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third
$7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks

Those are the compensations based on caphit

Ideally, if a team were to try and poach him, they would aim for the $4.5million range so they only have to give up a first and a third. Vancouver would be hesitant to match that as they would then have 2 goalies being paid as a #1.
Type II free agents are terrible for the signing team ie. Kessel or Penner.

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04-19-2012, 08:27 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by stryfe604 View Post
Out of that list I will give you Tyrell, but Panik and Conacher could easily make the team. Panik if nit this coming up year, the year after he is in. Watch some A games and you will see how close they are. Btw didn't mention Connolly either.
Panik is still very much a boom or bust prospect. He certainly won't be putting up top 6 numbers in the NHL next season. He's simply not that good yet, if he ever gets there. Luongo's timeline as a legit starter nicely overlaps with Stamkos' prime years. That's a great basis going forwards for your team no matter who comes down your pipeline.

At the end of year 6, Lu likely retires since there's little money to play for. There's also a pause in his NTC at year 3 if he needs to be moved (I doubt it).

The way I see it, Luongo makes you guys a slam dunk playoff team if not the out and out favorites for the SW division. That can't be said for Harding or Lindback or even Vokoun for that matter. And he can be had at a depressed price due to his NTC and Van's surplus of talent in net.

I know slagging on Lu and his contract is what all the cool kids are doing, but in actuality should he reach the market, he's by far and away the best goalie available and probably the second biggest available asset aside from Nash.

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04-19-2012, 08:58 AM
  #85
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I don't understand how Vancouver could match anything? Cap Geek says you have $9,221,667 and 17 players signed....So you have to sign 6 players with that money and you are going to carry 8,9 or 10 Million in 2 goalies? No. That doesn't make sense.

I'd assume they take Schneider to arbitration to protect them against offer sheets or trade him before Free Agency begins? I don't know? But how can Vancouver carry Luongo at 5.3 and say Schneider 3 or 4. Your talking 40% of your remaining 9 Million and change cap money to 1 (redundant position) player when you need to sign 6. How do you sign Raymond and fill out the roster?

Arbitration or Trade (of a goalie) seems like the options for Vancouver? No?

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04-19-2012, 09:14 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by JimEIV View Post
I don't understand how Vancouver could match anything? Cap Geek says you have $9,221,667 and 17 players signed....So you have to sign 6 players with that money and you are going to carry 8,9 or 10 Million in 2 goalies? No. That doesn't make sense.

I'd assume they take Schneider to arbitration to protect them against offer sheets or trade him before Free Agency begins? I don't know? But how can Vancouver carry Luongo at 5.3 and say Schneider 3 or 4. Your talking 40% of your remaining 9 Million and change cap money to 1 (redundant position) player when you need to sign 6. How do you sign Raymond and fill out the roster?

Arbitration or Trade (of a goalie) seems like the options for Vancouver? No?
Because the Canucks could very easily make room. Trade Ballard, Raymond, Luongo... done.

Hate to break it to you guys in this thread, but the Canucks make it clear last night that Schneider is NOT the goalie that is going to be traded. Canucks sent a message loud and clear last night... Schneider is the Canucks starter now and for the future. Luongo is going to ask to be traded because there is no way he's going to accept being a 'backup' at his age.

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04-19-2012, 09:17 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by JimEIV View Post
I don't understand how Vancouver could match anything? Cap Geek says you have $9,221,667 and 17 players signed....So you have to sign 6 players with that money and you are going to carry 8,9 or 10 Million in 2 goalies? No. That doesn't make sense.

I'd assume they take Schneider to arbitration to protect them against offer sheets or trade him before Free Agency begins? I don't know? But how can Vancouver carry Luongo at 5.3 and say Schneider 3 or 4. Your talking 40% of your remaining 9 Million and change cap money to 1 (redundant position) player when you need to sign 6. How do you sign Raymond and fill out the roster?

Arbitration or Trade (of a goalie) seems like the options for Vancouver? No?
You get Schneider under contract and take the Summer to work out a trade for Luongo. They'll go to CS and tell him they want to make a long term deal and that Luongo will be moved. If Luongo refuses they could force their hand by playing him as much as Martin Brochu, or dumping him in the minors.

Bottom line is that Luongo is an elite top 10 goalie. Get him back with a goalie coach that works for him, and in a market where the press is not waiting to inspect every aspect of your life and he'll thrive.

Gillis can't afford NOT to keep CS. It's that simple.

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04-19-2012, 09:20 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by clyankees47 View Post
There is a 0% chance Schneider gets poached.

If Canucks can't get him under contract before July 1st, they'll take him to arbitration.

This means no team will be able to offer sheet him.

They'll then decide whether to pay him his arbitration award or walk away. You can be sure they'll pay whatever he gets awarded..... take it to the bank. And then they'll decide whether to trade Schneider or Luongo.

End of thread....
a case could be made that schnieder is a 1b goalie and not a backup or up and comer considering his age. if he manages to vancouver comes back from 0-3 and beats LA and schnieder is a big part of it an arbitrator could award him $3-4 million. to have $8 million locked up in goalies is pretty bad. its my understanding that even if an arbitrator awarded a number that was favourable to the canucks (~$2million) it would only be for a one year deal and then schnieder would become a ufa. i cant see him wanted to play second fiddle to luongo for the next 12 years which would leave vanouver with a huge problem.

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04-19-2012, 09:57 AM
  #89
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I don't disagree that Vancouver will keep Schneider. I just disagree with the notion that trades to make room will be "easy" if we're talking about Luongo.

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04-19-2012, 10:08 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Stamkos just won the Richard. You're right. He's 22. Right about the time that elite snipers usually peak. And he'll be about that good for about 5 or 6 more years. None of the other young players you listed are anywhere near as good as Stamkos and many of them won't even be NHL regulars. This is the cast of young players you want to grow as a young team with and therefore MUST have a young goalie to grow with them?

Sorry. But that makes little sense. Your team is ready to take the next step. They need a goalie and bit more stability on the blueline. Waiting for Panik or Gudas or Tyrell to mature is good way to get fired as a GM.
Elite snipers peak at 22? What kool-aid are you drinking?

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04-19-2012, 10:16 AM
  #91
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It have been discussed and verified a million time! Schneider cant be protected from offer sheet by Team elected arbitration. (Schneider situation is not comparable to Weber).

Do you want link to these discussion ?
Did you watch the game last night? Are you starting to see what us Canucks fans have seen ALL YEAR. The guy has been the definition of consistent. That was a normal performance for him. Also no way he gets offer sheeted. He's gonna be signed long term 12 years 48 million.

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04-19-2012, 10:22 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by clyankees47 View Post
There is a 0% chance Schneider gets poached.

If Canucks can't get him under contract before July 1st, they'll take him to arbitration.

This means no team will be able to offer sheet him.

They'll then decide whether to pay him his arbitration award or walk away. You can be sure they'll pay whatever he gets awarded..... take it to the bank. And then they'll decide whether to trade Schneider or Luongo.

End of thread....
End of thread? Hardly.

If they can move Luongo, then no problem, you talk as if that's just a walk in the park. However, if they can't find a team to take Luongo or Luongo digs his heels in and refuses to waive his NTC what then? Vancouver is exposed.

Whether to stay or go is Luongo's decision, not Gillis'. Also, I doubt the other GMs in the league will do him any favours in absorbing that kind of contract. A lot of people assume he'll just retire early but you can't be so sure about that. Unless he's bought out, I think it's possible that he'll stick around and collect every last paycheque wheter it be in the AHL or NHL. A lot of money is owed to him not many teams can absorb it if things go wrong.

If he runs out of gas at 38 years old, some team will be in serious trouble. Luongo is bad news.

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04-19-2012, 10:48 AM
  #93
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Elite snipers peak at 22? What kool-aid are you drinking?
Name 5 that don't exhibit peak productivity in their late teens early twenties and decline from there. That's the career trajectory for virtually every high end forward.

Even elite forwards who decline slowly have career years at an early age: Teemu Selanne (who scored 76 goals as a rookie and never came close that again his career) or Brett Hull (86 goals as a 24 year old) or Mike Bossy (147 points as a 24 year old), Pavel Bure (60 goals, 110 points as 21 year old) your GM, SFY (155 points as a 23 year old).

To answer my above question, the only 3 I can think of off the top of my head: the Sedin twins (Henrik 30, Daniel 31 yo) and Phil Esposito (152 points as a 29 yo). It's definitely the exception rather than the rule. Expecting Stamkos' performance to continue to trend upwards into his late twenties is the very definition of 'drinking the koolaid'.

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04-19-2012, 10:54 AM
  #94
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End of thread? Hardly.

If they can move Luongo, then no problem, you talk as if that's just a walk in the park. However, if they can't find a team to take Luongo or Luongo digs his heels in and refuses to waive his NTC what then? Vancouver is exposed.

Whether to stay or go is Luongo's decision, not Gillis'. Also, I doubt the other GMs in the league will do him any favours in absorbing that kind of contract. A lot of people assume he'll just retire early but you can't be so sure about that. Unless he's bought out, I think it's possible that he'll stick around and collect every last paycheque wheter it be in the AHL or NHL. A lot of money is owed to him not many teams can absorb it if things go wrong.

If he runs out of gas at 38 years old, some team will be in serious trouble. Luongo is bad news.
He'll be saying "Hi!" to Cristobel Huet and Wade Redden. He's still one of the top 10 goalies in the league right now so someone will take him and Luongo is a consummate team player, he'll do what's best in the long run.

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04-19-2012, 10:55 AM
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End of thread? Hardly.

If they can move Luongo, then no problem, you talk as if that's just a walk in the park. However, if they can't find a team to take Luongo or Luongo digs his heels in and refuses to waive his NTC what then? Vancouver is exposed.

Whether to stay or go is Luongo's decision, not Gillis'. Also, I doubt the other GMs in the league will do him any favours in absorbing that kind of contract. A lot of people assume he'll just retire early but you can't be so sure about that. Unless he's bought out, I think it's possible that he'll stick around and collect every last paycheque wheter it be in the AHL or NHL. A lot of money is owed to him not many teams can absorb it if things go wrong.

If he runs out of gas at 38 years old, some team will be in serious trouble. Luongo is bad news.
Unless the cap drops, the Canucks can easily afford both goalies for at least a season. Schneider will probably sign if he knows he'll be the starter, and Luongo won't be happy sitting on the bench. That's probably the best case scenario, since they can run Schneider and Luongo on a 60/40 split, allowing the Canucks to test out whether Schneider can handle an increased workload. That leaves it open for the Canucks to move one or the other when it makes sense (including Luongo waiving his NTC).

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04-19-2012, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Name 5 that don't exhibit peak productivity in their late teens early twenties and decline from there. That's the career trajectory for virtually every high end forward.

Even elite forwards who decline slowly have career years at an early age: Teemu Selanne (who scored 76 goals as a rookie and never came close that again his career) or Brett Hull (86 goals as a 24 year old) or Mike Bossy (147 points as a 24 year old), Pavel Bure (60 goals, 110 points as 21 year old) your GM, SFY (155 points as a 23 year old).

To answer my above question, the only 3 I can think of off the top of my head: the Sedin twins (Henrik 30, Daniel 31 yo) and Phil Esposito (152 points as a 29 yo). It's definitely the exception rather than the rule. Expecting Stamkos' performance to continue to trend upwards into his late twenties is the very definition of 'drinking the koolaid'.
Bure later scored 58 and 59 in a much lower scoring era when he was 28-30, and Selanne's swift decline was concurrent with both severe injuries and a sharp decline in overall scoring following that season.

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04-19-2012, 11:03 AM
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Bure later scored 58 and 59 in a much lower scoring era when he was 28-30, and Selanne's swift decline was concurrent with both severe injuries and a sharp decline in overall scoring following that season.
Devil's Advocate: We're headed towards another dead puck era with the amount of clutching and grabbing left uncalled of late. Conditions constantly change for every player over the course of their career.

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04-19-2012, 11:17 AM
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Conditions change....but as an older player, once he had a few injury free seasons, he scored as much as he did in your theoretical peak (1 goal is not a real difference). Bure doesn't support the early peak theory, and if you factor in the relative scoring in the seasons, he actually scored more around 30 than he did in his early 20's.

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04-19-2012, 11:37 AM
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^ No, I think my point stands with Bure (and this is coming from someone who feels he's HOF-worthy). His goals were remarkably consistent into his early 30's other than the knee injury, but he only eclipsed 100 points once more, the following year. Sedins and Esposito had marked improvements in point production in their late twenties, early thirties, which is incredibly uncommon.

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04-19-2012, 11:42 AM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Name 5 that don't exhibit peak productivity in their late teens early twenties and decline from there. That's the career trajectory for virtually every high end forward.

Even elite forwards who decline slowly have career years at an early age: Teemu Selanne (who scored 76 goals as a rookie and never came close that again his career) or Brett Hull (86 goals as a 24 year old) or Mike Bossy (147 points as a 24 year old), Pavel Bure (60 goals, 110 points as 21 year old) your GM, SFY (155 points as a 23 year old).

To answer my above question, the only 3 I can think of off the top of my head: the Sedin twins (Henrik 30, Daniel 31 yo) and Phil Esposito (152 points as a 29 yo). It's definitely the exception rather than the rule. Expecting Stamkos' performance to continue to trend upwards into his late twenties is the very definition of 'drinking the koolaid'.
So by your own examples - there's at least another year or two before Stamkos 'peaks' as with the exception of Bure, they're all 23 and 24 in your best year examples.

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