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Old
12-27-2005, 04:57 PM
  #51
Pred303
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just for kicks, thought i'd take a look at some offensive numbers for the preds, to see who is the most/least 'proficient' in point scoring per minute played so far this year thru the first 33 games played....

first, forwards only, listed accroding to how many total minutes played per point scored order (note: this includes all special team time/points)

1)tootoo (50/4 pts) .........12.50 (point scored for every 12 1/2 minutes of TOI)
2)sullivan (557/33 pts).....16.88
3)kariya (648/33 pts).......19.64
4)perreault (462/22 pts)...21.00
5)upshall (218/10 pts)......21.80
6)beech (73/3 pts)...........24.33
7)erat (478/18 pts)...........26.56
8)hartnell (588/22 pts)......26.73
9)walker (140/5 pts).........28.00
10)legwand (454/ 13 pts)..34.92
11)stevenson (211/6 pts)..35.17
12)hall (510/12 pts)..........36.43
13)hordichuk (201/5 pts)...40.20
14)smithson (224/5 pts)....44.80
15)fiddler (249/5 pts)........49.80
16)johnson (343/4 pts)......85.75

now this ratio is very debatable of course, in that it penalizes guys that play on the pk, and rewards people that play on the pp....but it does begin to point out things that we all know.. such as we're not getting enough points from our frigging centermen

to carry this one step farther, thought i'd look at the same ratio for only even strength minutes and points..and simply remove all pp/pk minutes and points.. so here is a listing of minutes played per even strength points scored for all our forwards;

1)tootoo (46/4).........11.50
2)upshall (202/10).....20.20
3)walker (83/4).........20.75
4)beech (42/2)..........21.00
5)kariya (397/16)......24.81
6)hartnell (341/13).....26.23
7)perreault (321/11)..29.18
8)stevenson (193/6)...32.17
9)erat (356/11)..........32.36
10)sullivan (293/9).....32.56
11)legwand (316/9)....35.11
12)smithson (141/4)...35.25
13)hordichuk (190/5)..38.00
14)fiddler (157/4).......39.25
15)hall (266/4)...........66.50
16)johnson (225/3)....75.00

to me this shows something i think most of us already realize, that we're not getting enough production from our 3rd line forwards even strength (hall and johnson are really struggling here), that we're not getting enough even strength production from our centermen, that we really miss scott walker even strength more than anywhere else(arguably our best even strength player), and that upshall is probably playing much better than most give him credit for.. at least that's what i walk away with looking at these numbers

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Old
12-28-2005, 05:40 PM
  #52
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some eye-opening statistics today for the preds;

2nd in the league in winning %, 3rd in the league in points, 4th in the league in wins, 2nd best in the league in fewest number of losses

14th in the league in goals scored per game,8th in the league in fewest goals allowed per game..

9th best in even strength goals scored to goals allowed ratio (58 to 52), second in the league in pp goals to pp goals allowed ratio (45 to 33)

14-1-3 in one goal games...the league best, by far
6-2 in two goal games

...12-3-1 when the other team scores first, best in the league by a huge margin
...a .750 winning percentage when trailing after the first period, easily the best in the league
...a .462 winning percentage when trailing after the SECOND period, again easily the highest in the league

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Old
01-09-2006, 04:18 PM
  #53
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at the midway point of the season...

..preds are on pace to score 252 goals (versus 219 last season) and give up 232 goals (versus 220 last season)
..sullivan is on pace to score 38 goals, perreault 30, kariya 26 and hartnell 26 with the all time team single season record at 27(walker)
..sullivan,kairya are on pace to both score 74 points, both breaking the 67 previous year high(walker)
..preds have 8 players on pace to record more than 40 points.
..sullivan is still scoring at a point per game played pace (37 in 37), something no pred has ever done of course.
..sullivan is on pace to score 20 pp goals this season,breaking the alltime pred pp scoring mark
..sullivan is on pace to score 6 shorthanded goals this season, breaking the alltime pred shorthanded mark.
..sullivan is 7th in the league in pp goals (10), 3rd in shorthanded goals (3), and 7th in the league in shooting percentage (20.4%)

..the following preds are on pace to set career highs in goals scored this season
.....perreault 30 pace, 28 career high
.....sullivan 38 pace, 34 career high
.....zidlicky 18 pace, 14 career high
.....erat 16 pace, 16 career high
.....hartnell 26 pace, 18 career high
.....hall 18 pace, 16 career high

of course,upshall, fiddler, suter, smithson, hordichuk have already all established new career high goal totals

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Old
01-09-2006, 04:18 PM
  #54
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just a couple of out loud thoughts here at the halfway point the guy this team is build around.. Tomas Vokoun

vokoun... we all said, that for us to make the jump to the next level we needed vokoun to have a great year... and so far, he has done just that...

...20 wins at the halfway mark are tied for 2nd most in the league and far ahead of his 35 win pace last season
...his 2.60 goals per game allowed is ninth best in the league, on a team that allows too many shots on goals and takes too many penalty kills.
...his save percentage of .916 is 7th best in the league, again for a team that allows too many shots, takes too many penalties and gives up far too many higher percentage shorthanded shots

when you analyze those numbers, you begin to see how well vokoun is playing this year...

.. this year league scoring is up around 15% per team. so goalies league wide are giving up significantly more goals than in recent years past... vokoun's gaa of 2.60 is only 2% higher than last season's 2.53 in a league where scoring is up 15%..
...same on save percentage, this year his .916 is actually better than his career save percentage coming into this year (.909) and higher than it was last season (was .909 there too)... and we're giving up more shots and more quality scoring chances and special team shots because of the new rules..

vokoun is truly having a fine year statistically so far

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Old
01-11-2006, 09:43 AM
  #55
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A few things I noted this morning while looking at the stats on nhl.com:

Sullivan now #15 in the nhl for goals scored and is also tied for 2nd inn short handed goals

Would anyone have believed it if someone told you fiddler would score as many goals as erat halfway through the season? I sure wouldn't have.

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Old
01-11-2006, 10:21 PM
  #56
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Here is an interesting stat....

Yannic Perrault is on pace to become the all-time single season goal scoring leader at the Center position for the Predators including the beloved Cliff Ronning's 26 goal season of 1999-2000. He currently has 17 goals at the 43 game mark.

You can serve up all the "Panic Hate-o-rade" you want....despite his limitations, he has brought two things to the Preds that have been sorely lacking during their history.....a finisher at center [except for Ronning] and dominance in the face-off circle. And with Walker coming back to that line, his limitations should be less glaring, and his production may actual accelerate somewhat.....

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Old
01-11-2006, 11:12 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
Here is an interesting stat....

Yannic Perrault is on pace to become the all-time single season goal scoring leader at the Center position for the Predators including the beloved Cliff Ronning's 26 goal season of 1999-2000. He currently has 17 goals at the 43 game mark.

You can serve up all the "Panic Hate-o-rade" you want....despite his limitations, he has brought two things to the Preds that have been sorely lacking during their history.....a finisher at center [except for Ronning] and dominance in the face-off circle. And with Walker coming back to that line, his limitations should be less glaring, and his production may actual accelerate somewhat.....
here's another stat ... 19 points in our last 18 games ... pretty mediocre if you ask me ... Avs won again tonight

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Old
01-13-2006, 02:41 PM
  #58
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Here's an interesting set of facts that I am not sure has been discussed at length in a while and that I couldn't find a home for so I put it here.

Against Nashville, the Red Wings second youngest regular was Henrik Zetterberg at 25. Their youngest regular was Lebda who turns 24 on Sunday. These guys saw a combined 29 minutes of ice time.

In that game, the Predators iced a roster that included Upshall (22), Tootoo (22), Suter (20), Weber (20), Hamhuis (23), and Hartnell (23). These guys played a over 85 minutes combined. All are younger than the Wings youngest player and all but Tootoo played a major role in the game. Also playing were Fiddler (25), Hall (25), Erat (24), and Hordichuk (25). All but Hordichuk played a major role. They combined for over 54 minutes.

I think we often lose sight of how young the Predators are. We see players like Erat and Hartnell and Hall and we don't realize how young they actually are. They seem like they have been with us for a half decade and we don't recognize their youth. Looking at the Wings game, Detroit had 3 players that were 25 and under (Zetts, Lebda, and Williams). The Predators had 10 players or half the dressed roster 25 and under. Of those 10, 8 played important roles. And that doesn't include the injured Legwand who is also 25.

That this team is competing toe-to-toe with the likes of Detroit is amazing. This team really is built for the future. And when you consider the depth of our prospect core (Klein, Weber, Parent, Radulov), we are built to compete in two or three years. This current run of success is a testament to just how well-built the Predators are.

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Old
01-13-2006, 03:48 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
Here's an interesting set of facts that I am not sure has been discussed at length in a while and that I couldn't find a home for so I put it here.

Against Nashville, the Red Wings second youngest regular was Henrik Zetterberg at 25. Their youngest regular was Lebda who turns 24 on Sunday. These guys saw a combined 29 minutes of ice time.

In that game, the Predators iced a roster that included Upshall (22), Tootoo (22), Suter (20), Weber (20), Hamhuis (23), and Hartnell (23). These guys played a over 85 minutes combined. All are younger than the Wings youngest player and all but Tootoo played a major role in the game. Also playing were Fiddler (25), Hall (25), Erat (24), and Hordichuk (25). All but Hordichuk played a major role. They combined for over 54 minutes.

I think we often lose sight of how young the Predators are. We see players like Erat and Hartnell and Hall and we don't realize how young they actually are. They seem like they have been with us for a half decade and we don't recognize their youth. Looking at the Wings game, Detroit had 3 players that were 25 and under (Zetts, Lebda, and Williams). The Predators had 10 players or half the dressed roster 25 and under. Of those 10, 8 played important roles. And that doesn't include the injured Legwand who is also 25.

That this team is competing toe-to-toe with the likes of Detroit is amazing. This team really is built for the future. And when you consider the depth of our prospect core (Klein, Weber, Parent, Radulov), we are built to compete in two or three years. This current run of success is a testament to just how well-built the Predators are.
good post smokey....i think we do lose sight of that, and when you really think about it....wow...

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Old
01-13-2006, 04:40 PM
  #60
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here is a startling fact.......

in our last ten games... our goal scoring by line, even strength, looks like this:

2nd line...has scored 9 even strength goals..(perreault 5,sullivan 4)
4th line...has scored 4 even strength goals..(hordichuk 2,smithson 2)
3rd line....has scored 4 even strength goals..(hall 1,johnson 1,hartnell 1,upshall 1)
1st line...has scored 1 even strength goal.. (fiddler)

so, in these past ten games, our first line has basically been totally ineffective, and by far our worst line...by far.. it's a miracle we've won any of these ten games with zero production for the first line... the ONLY goal the first line has scored even strength these last ten games wasn't even a result of that line working together... that single goal they scored was a fluke on top of that, was when STL passed the puck straight out to fiddler in front of their net and he shot it in past a stunned STL goalie.. so even that ONE goal wasn't the result of anything that unit did to earn it

..erat with no even strength goals in 14 games now...kariya with no even strength goals in 12 games..fiddler with one even strength goal in 10 games now... this unit right now is a disaster

pitiful... something has to be done here... i'd move hartnell up, and try johnson centering kariya and him and let fiddler center hall and erat... but..something...has..to..be..done

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Old
01-13-2006, 04:51 PM
  #61
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That's not so startling....I've been watching the games.

Kariya needs someone to carry the puck up ice and dish it off to him when he gets open. Kariya has been forced to carry the puck far too often on that line and has not had the opportunity to get open because the defense is moving to him while he has the puck.

Bottom line is that Vernon Fiddler is not a first line center and we're paying for that right now.

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01-13-2006, 05:16 PM
  #62
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Atleast Legwand isn't centering the firstline now.

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01-13-2006, 05:37 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_inch_fang
Atleast Legwand isn't centering the firstline now.
I love going 9-8-1 without legwand, don't you? ... its soo much fun being mediocre

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01-13-2006, 05:48 PM
  #64
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I was just rubbing some noses in the stat that you presented.


I was trying to be subtle though.

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Old
01-20-2006, 04:18 PM
  #65
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before last night's game;

plus/minus at home versus on the road as food for hockey thought;

first those with a significantly worse road plus/minus than at home;
hartnell....+11 home, -5 road (-16)
timonen.... +5 home, -5 road (-10)
zidlicky.... +7 home, -3 road (-10)
fiddler...... +4 home, -4 road (-8)
johnson..... +4 home, -1 road (-5)
kariya....... -2 home, -6 road (-4)

then the ones actually with a better road plus/minus than at home (difficult to do with our much better home record and shows our 4th line carrying us for that last road trip more than anything else);
tootoo....... 0 at home, +5 road (+5)
hordichuk...+2 home, +6 road (+4)
legwand.....-3 home, 0 road (+3)

one stat i find really amazing is the difference in plus/minus in our own 14 divisional games (12-1-1) versus individuals plus/minus in the other 31 games outside our own division (16-11-4);

plus/minus stats by first divisional foes followed by all other games plus/minus
hamhuis...+11 in the division/ -11 outside the division
kariya...... +6 / -14
timonen.... +7/ -7
suter........ +6/ -5
zidlicky...... +7/-3
erat......... +3/ -6

hordichuk,hartnell,markov,smithson,upshall,johnson ,nichol all have positive plus/minus stats both against our own division and in the games outside the division too

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Old
02-16-2006, 08:41 PM
  #66
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stats you might not see everyday about our goalies;

in even strength save percentage vokoun is currently 2nd in the league at .936 (996 for 1064).. (the real reason it behoves us to stay out of the penalty box)

on the penalty kill vokoun's save percentage drops to .886 (325 for 367)... which is about .20 basis points above the overall league average, but obviously signifcantly below even strength

shorthanded (when we're on the pp), vokoun's save percentage is among the worse in the league among starters at .859 (55 for 64), significanly below the league average and in fact among the worse in the entire league..i attribute this to the many high percentage odd man rushes our pp is prone to give up (far too many)...



as a point of comparision...mason's percentages are .898 even strength, .888 on the penalty kill, and against shorthanded shots .909...

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Old
03-12-2006, 05:30 PM
  #67
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it's that time... preds sitting with 82 points in 64 games now coming off this tough roadtrip.. things are shaping up quite nicely thanks to the unexpected success on this 4 game swing.. look at what we have left..

18 games;

of which 11 are at home where we're 23-6-1, the best home record in the western conference
of which 7 are on the road, where we're basically a .500 hockey team. 14-13-7

18 games, of which only 6 games are against teams currently in playoff spots in the west... 12 games against teams ranked 9th or lower in the west.. and where 10 of those games are against the teams ranked 11th or lower in the west (pho 3,chi 2,clb 1, stl 4)..of the 4 games we have against current playoff teams, 4 of those are at home

the next 9 games are key to us... play .500 hockey and simply grind out a point a game over those 9.. and we'll be sitting at 91 points, where we wound up last season, with 9 games left to play primarily against the weaker teams (STL,CLB, @CHI, @STL, CHI, @STL, MIN, PHO, DET)... be sitting with 91 points going into those last 9 games, and you have to assume we easily reach 100.. 100 should be the magic number for finishing in either the 4th or 5th spot in the west... 100 even might get the 4th spot, but it might take as many as 103 to guarantee the 4th spot though.. still figures that are within reason, if we can be at 91 points or higher going into the final 9 game stretch..

the schedule is now in our favor... in our favor with 11 of the 18 being home games... in our favor with 12 of the 18 being against likely non-playoff teams (Anaheim being the only possible exception that could climb back in the top 8)... in our favor with the chance of ending the season on a high note, with us with some momentum heading into the playoffs...

it's now a simple matter of grinding out a point a game over these next 9... do that and man we're sitting pretty.. anything more than 9 in the next nine and we're REALLY in great shape

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03-12-2006, 05:57 PM
  #68
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I notice that you aren't talking about eighth and ninth place anymore.

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Old
03-13-2006, 06:21 AM
  #69
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we'll be very close to the 8th spot after these next 9 games, even if we get a point a game.... then our schedule is set up for us to sprint to the finish and regain the 4th/5th spot...

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Old
03-13-2006, 06:32 AM
  #70
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The way our season series with the Wings pans out will be very telling...

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