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Vladimir Tarasenko Discussion Thread (III) -- NHL bound (Filed with NHL)

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Old
04-24-2012, 09:09 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Prometheus View Post
What should we expect from Tarasenko next season? 30-30-60 is probably fair, depending how quickly he adapts.
I don't think it's a fair expectation at all. That's a nearly guaranteed Calder, basically. Expecting a guaranteed Calder is a bit unfair. First of all we don't know what kind of PP time he'll get and that will have an impact on his numbers.

I expect something in the 15-23 goals range, 20-25 assists range for his first year.

I think long term he'll be a 70 point player in the NHL, and it's possible he has a huge rookie year, but to set the expectations that high doesn't do anything except set up a huge negative freeroll.

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04-24-2012, 09:32 PM
  #77
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To be fair, "should" should have been "could". A lot depends on how quickly he adapts, and I don't think that will be an issue for him. If he does, he'll very quickly get the ice time.

Easy comparison to make is Radulov; Tarasenko now is a better player than the Radulov of 2008 that put up similar numbers in the NHL.

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04-24-2012, 09:33 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I don't think it's a fair expectation at all. That's a nearly guaranteed Calder, basically. Expecting a guaranteed Calder is a bit unfair. First of all we don't know what kind of PP time he'll get and that will have an impact on his numbers.

I expect something in the 15-23 goals range, 20-25 assists range for his first year.

I think long term he'll be a 70 point player in the NHL, and it's possible he has a huge rookie year, but to set the expectations that high doesn't do anything except set up a huge negative freeroll.
With Hitchcock as coach, expecting anything above 50 points is reaching if you ask me.

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04-24-2012, 09:37 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Sn00kiMonster View Post
With Hitchcock as coach, expecting anything above 50 points is reaching if you ask me.
A defenseman in Hitchcock's system scored above 50 points this year. Long term, like his 3d-4th season in the league I don't think 70 points is unreasonable given his skills even in a Hitchcock system. There's plenty of power play time. He's a significantly better finisher than Backes and Oshie who were in the mid-50s. Andy McDonald is a PPG player in a Hitchcock system.

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04-24-2012, 09:52 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
A defenseman in Hitchcock's system scored above 50 points this year. Long term, like his 3d-4th season in the league I don't think 70 points is unreasonable given his skills even in a Hitchcock system. There's plenty of power play time. He's a significantly better finisher than Backes and Oshie who were in the mid-50s. Andy McDonald is a PPG player in a Hitchcock system.
I didn't mean to quote you... Stupid iPhone.

I meant his rookie year. I think he will most likely get 3rd line minutes. That combined with his first year on smaller ice and playing against far superior players, I think more than 50 is expecting too much.

But that's just my opinion.

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04-24-2012, 10:17 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Sn00kiMonster View Post
I didn't mean to quote you... Stupid iPhone.

I meant his rookie year. I think he will most likely get 3rd line minutes. That combined with his first year on smaller ice and playing against far superior players, I think more than 50 is expecting too much.

But that's just my opinion.
Yeah, I share this opinion. 35-48 points is what I expect for year one. Ultimately he'll go higher but he'll likely follow a similar pattern as most really good players who didn't come blasting into the league with 60 points. I'm happy to be pleasantly surprised but my expectations are more realistic.

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04-24-2012, 10:42 PM
  #82
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IMO, Tarasenko will be the Blues most skilled player the minute he steps on the ice. I compare him to Perron's skill with Oshie's tenacity.

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04-24-2012, 11:43 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Sn00kiMonster View Post
With Hitchcock as coach, expecting anything above 50 points is reaching if you ask me.
I don't think the system would effect anyone's point production (dramatically). All about skill.

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04-25-2012, 01:17 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by wilco5886 View Post
I know its best not to put much stock into the rankings, but I'm curious as to where everyone thinks Tarasenko will end up in HF's top 50? He was 8th last October and many of the prospects ahead of him will probably graduate.
Just my opinion, but there seems to be a bit of value decay in prospects that aren't playing in North America on HF's master ranking list. I think Tarasenko won't be ranked as high as he deserves.

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04-25-2012, 09:29 AM
  #85
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I don't think the system would effect anyone's point production (dramatically). All about skill.
Not trying to be argumentative, but do you think James Neal would have scored 40 goals here this year?

We don't have malkin, but I think we play a style that isn't conducive to high point totals for anyone.

You could be right though. That's just my opinion.

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04-25-2012, 09:40 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Sn00kiMonster View Post
Not trying to be argumentative, but do you think James Neal would have scored 40 goals here this year?

We don't have malkin, but I think we play a style that isn't conducive to high point totals for anyone.

You could be right though. That's just my opinion.
You are certainly right that our system isn't going to be the most beneficial to our forwards point totals. However, our current group isn't exactly the most offensively gifted bunch, their strengths lie in their excellent all round games. The 2 that stand out for their offensive abilities were both on a 60+ point pace this season (Perron & McDonald).

I think that is probably an argument for why Tarasenko will likely be seeing a lot of PP time pretty quickly when he comes over.

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04-25-2012, 10:08 AM
  #87
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I don't see any way that Tarasenko doesn't get PP time, unless he is just a major bust. Schwartz got PP time in his very first game, and actually scored on the PP I believe. Hitch doesn't seem to have reservations about putting young guys on the PP.

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04-25-2012, 10:11 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor View Post
Just my opinion, but there seems to be a bit of value decay in prospects that aren't playing in North America on HF's master ranking list. I think Tarasenko won't be ranked as high as he deserves.
Wasn't Tarasenko just named HF's Prospect of the Year for 2012? I would think he will be rated rather high on the master ranking list with that.

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04-25-2012, 10:14 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by D3Devildog View Post
Wasn't Tarasenko just named HF's Prospect of the Year for 2012? I would think he will be rated rather high on the master ranking list with that.
He was, but that doesn't assure him the number 1 spot. If RNH still qualifies as a prospect, which I believe he does, I don't see any way in which Tarasenko could jump him considering his fantastic rookie (half)season. I expect him in the 2-5 range, but I don't care a whole lot where he falls. I just want him to be productive next year.

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04-25-2012, 10:20 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Sn00kiMonster View Post
Not trying to be argumentative, but do you think James Neal would have scored 40 goals here this year?

We don't have malkin, but I think we play a style that isn't conducive to high point totals for anyone.

You could be right though. That's just my opinion.
Agree, Neal is a product of Malkin. But could Malkin score +100 if he was on the Blues? Probably not. But he could get 85-90 on a defensive system.

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04-25-2012, 10:50 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by h22prelude93 View Post
RNH - 63 gm's - Tarasenko prolly won't jump him, but you never know.

Larsson - 65 gm's -Grad

Schenn - 63 gm's - I think he should be pretty easily jumped.

Johansen - 67 gm's - Grad

OEL - 82 gm's - Grad

Bernier- 48 Total Nhl gm's - Grad (The limits 45 gm's for goaltender)

Rundblad - 30 gm's - Like you said, should be jumped.

So really it very well could be between him, and RNH.
I think it would be silly of HF to not graduate RNH and Schenn just because they barely missed the 65 game cutoff. They've made that exception before. Toews played just under 65 games his rookie season and they still graduated him. Then again, Oshie also played just under 65 games his rookie season and they didn't graduate him. I think it would be silly not to graduate RNH and Schenn though. The 65 games should be a guideline, not an absolute no exceptions rule IMO. Those two only missed the 65 games because of a couple injuries. They're established NHLers at this point - no longer prospects.

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04-25-2012, 10:52 AM
  #92
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I'm expecting somewhere around 40 pts for Tarasenko next season but it could certainly be more or less depending on how much I've time he gets and in what situations.

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04-25-2012, 12:55 PM
  #93
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Certainly many options for the PP which makes it tough to earn PP ice time. Dags and Stewart have both shown the ability to score on the PP yet both saw limited time. Tarasenko would have to earn PP time which won't be easy.

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04-25-2012, 01:34 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by STL fan in IA View Post
I think it would be silly of HF to not graduate RNH and Schenn just because they barely missed the 65 game cutoff. They've made that exception before. Toews played just under 65 games his rookie season and they still graduated him. Then again, Oshie also played just under 65 games his rookie season and they didn't graduate him. I think it would be silly not to graduate RNH and Schenn though. The 65 games should be a guideline, not an absolute no exceptions rule IMO. Those two only missed the 65 games because of a couple injuries. They're established NHLers at this point - no longer prospects.
Well then if RNH graduates Tarasenko should definitely be #1. I think Boston's Dougie Hamilton will also be pretty high up the list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stlweir View Post
Certainly many options for the PP which makes it tough to earn PP ice time. Dags and Stewart have both shown the ability to score on the PP yet both saw limited time. Tarasenko would have to earn PP time which won't be easy.
Knowing Hitchcock, he'll likely have to prove his worth on the PK first.

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04-25-2012, 07:04 PM
  #95
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Tarasenko update

Stats from KHL playoff

Valdimir Tarasenko was 4th in scoring with 16 points (10+6) in 15 games he played 5-6 games less then the 3 player before him who scored 22, 19 and 19 points. Its more impressive if you look at TOI/Game. Tarasenko played 12:16 per game and the three player before him played between 16:26 and 18:52 per game

http://en.khl.ru/stat/leaders/203/pts/

Btw Tarasenko will play the last EHT tournament which start tomorrow. And i think its pretty safe he already has a roster spot on Russias WC team.

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04-25-2012, 11:43 PM
  #96
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I can see Tarasenko having a Stamkos like rookie year, stats wise. 14 mins of ice time, 23goals, 23 assists, 46 points.

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04-26-2012, 12:45 AM
  #97
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Just to give you guys some info because I have noticed your guys beat reports are terrible in regards to Russia and the KHL.

April 30th is the beginning of KHL free agency, it is highly expected Kuznetsov will be announcing hes coming the Caps, so if theres anything to happen, its gonna be after April 30th, Tarasenko's agent though may suggest he wait for the new CBA to sign.

I don't knows gonna win the Calder next year, but with the likes of Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, and Yakupov, but its gonna be great having such great young Russian players that will piss off Don Cherry so much.

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04-26-2012, 09:29 AM
  #98
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Grigorenko might be in the mix too.

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04-26-2012, 10:42 AM
  #99
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Strickland said yesterday that we should know by early June. What's the general consensus right now on him coming over? More 50/50 or leaning towards one way? Sorry I've been out of the loop on this for a bit.

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04-26-2012, 01:20 PM
  #100
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Strickland said yesterday that we should know by early June. What's the general consensus right now on him coming over? More 50/50 or leaning towards one way? Sorry I've been out of the loop on this for a bit.
Nobody knows for sure but my guess would be 80% that he signs. I'm sure others have different feelings on it though.

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