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2012 NHL Draft Thread Part III

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Old
05-02-2012, 03:18 PM
  #26
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in order i want murray, forsberg, or dumba at 4. dumba only if murray is gone. i would not mind trading down to grab someone like reinhart/trouba/rielly and adding a few picks, perhaps enabling them to move back into the 1st round

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05-02-2012, 06:20 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by islandermaniac View Post
reinhart has all of the goods? sorry, but he does not. scouts do not suggest that reinhart has the hockey sense that ryan murray does. many suggest that murray ranks first in that regard in the entire draft. reinhart doesn't have the skating of murray or dumba either. also, despite his size, he does not hit like dumba and he is no more physical than ryan murray. honestly, guys like duncan keith and ryan suter are considered to be two of the game's best defencemen and they are 6"1/200 and 6'1"/198 respectively. Why can't murray and dumba (who, granted, is smaller than keith, suter, and murray) be just as effective at the same size?

again, i don't know that my favourite kid in this draft is murray or not. he is certainly up there. i will say that he is being, "sean couturiered" right now. he had a steady regular season and wjc despite battling an injury. people trashed couturier as not taking his game to another level last season and now they are doing the same to murray. if given the chance to draft murray and the isles pass, murray will shove it in their face just like couturier will do for the next 15 years.
Not sure how to answer...just put out my opinion on what he brings. At no point do I suggest that he is better at any one thing, just that he has a combo that the team needs. My opinion is not chained to rankings or scouts. I am basing it on what I think the team will do with their pick, where ever they may pick.

As for players passed over in the past "shoving it in their face" I am one who believes that you cannot compare the development of PHI prospects inserted into the line up at 19 to Islander prospects of the same age. Two different organizations, coaches and talent levels.

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05-02-2012, 06:48 PM
  #28
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ummm...if he even gets on the ice for team CANADA that is an accomplishment in and of itself. this is not team austria, or team denmark, this is team CANADA!!! duncan keith said the kid has been very good and that is a pretty strong endorsement. i'm not exactly sure who i want the islanders to pick, but this "murray isn't flashy or dynamic enough" business has got to go.
I was afraid Murray would get this attitude and now it's apparent. Hopefully not every fan sees it this way but the kid playing in the world's is an accomplishment but we shouldn't ignore his outcome. If he doesn't do well, I am not going to be one to say, "oh well, he was playing with men and I expect it he's still great let's take him at number 4". On the other hand, I might say, well he has talent and may end up being a top 4 some day but I'd rather shoot for one of these forwards and maybe get lucky and have a NHL ready one now...

Just sayin'

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05-02-2012, 06:48 PM
  #29
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I respect your opinion, but all of those deficencies are things that can be learned. Mike Bossy though D-fense was that thing surrounding his house when he was growing up. He became a decent defensively aware forward. You can teach people to be better defensively, and limit their poor penalties

What you can't teach, is offensive skill, and heart, of which Dumba has tons of both.

Here are a few souting reports:

This is from MyNHL Draft.com

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012/NHL-D...s/Mathew-Dumba

So that one seems to think he plays well defensively.

This one is from The Hockey Writers:

http://thehockeywriters.com/matt-dum...outing-report/

Also no mention of poor defensive awareness or bad penalties, does it say he has areas he can improve, of course, all hockey players can improve.

This one from the Edmonton Journal quoting the Redline Report:

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...e-ryan-murray/

Redline report likes Dumba over Murray.

This one from NHLMockDraft:

http://www.nhlmockdraft.org/prospect...le-matt-dumba/

The more I read, the more I like Dumba as the top D-man available. Almost a full year younger than Murray. Way better offensively, and not too far away from being his equal defensively.
Whereas I'm sure these people have made opinions on Dumba while having seen him much more than myself, I can say that I just saw him live on a few occasions at the U18 and there were some major defensive deficiencies. Major. There were a couple of BRUTAL mistakes that inexplicably allowed opponents to trot to the goal free of worry. He also has a problem with leaving his position to seek the hit, which he doesn't always show great timing with in the first place.

He also had big problems staying away from the penalty box.

Now, this said, these things are coachable. They can be corrected. He has a real rocket of a shot. He wants to be involved in the attack. He has 'blueliner' qualities.

I think any team that takes him has to know he could just as easily end up being an MA Bergeron type as a Subban type.

Interesting:
I was surprised that he wasn't bigger. I'm 5'10" and felt that I was looking him straight in the eyes when we chatted.


Last edited by Chapin Landvogt: 05-02-2012 at 06:55 PM.
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05-02-2012, 06:50 PM
  #30
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I have only one question:

When can I see Dumba play? Any help here would be appreciated.

BTW - His wheels on a physical defenseman... I am getting very tempted over Murray now.


Last edited by A Pointed Stick: 05-02-2012 at 07:01 PM.
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05-02-2012, 06:53 PM
  #31
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My list:

Forsberg
Galchenyuk

If neither are available trade down and pick one of the several defenseman available.

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05-02-2012, 06:59 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by scott99 View Post
I really am intrigued by Dumba. This guy just seems to have a certain IT factor. I wonder when the last time ANY defensman led the U18's by averaging 2 points a game.
Well, to be genuine, he had 12 points in 7 games.

Last year, Ryan Murphy had 13 in 7 games.

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05-02-2012, 07:14 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Chapin Landvogt View Post
Interesting:
I was surprised that he wasn't bigger. I'm 5'10" and felt that I was looking him straight in the eyes when we chatted.
It wouldn't be the first time baloney was offered up for stats.

Do you really think Ness is 5'10" tall?

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05-02-2012, 07:18 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by A Pointed Stick View Post
I have only one question:

When can I see Dumba play? Any help here would be appreciated.

BTW - His wheels on a physical defenseman... I am getting very tempted over Murray now.
1) His season is over. Gotta wait until next year.
2) His wheels? This kid does NOT skate like Subban. He hits and has blueline qualities like Subban, but he doesn't have that skating skillset.

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05-02-2012, 07:46 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by leaponover View Post
My list:

Forsberg
Galchenyuk

If neither are available trade down and pick one of the several defenseman available.
For as much information as I can have about 7 weeks before a draft...I agree 100%.

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05-02-2012, 11:14 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Chapin Landvogt View Post
1) His season is over. Gotta wait until next year.
2) His wheels? This kid does NOT skate like Subban. He hits and has blueline qualities like Subban, but he doesn't have that skating skillset.
Interesting. One of those articles someone posted touting Dumba as the next defensive shizzle went on and on about his mobility. I don't doubt you, just wondering about the voracity of the pro-Dumba writers. RedLine (Woodlief) says he is just above Murray, but again it is Redline Report. He's been horribly wrong before and making Dumba a 4th or 3rd pick might be his next gaff.

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05-02-2012, 11:36 PM
  #37
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Hockey sense>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Seriously if we do not draft Murray I will lose all hope.

https://thehockeywriters.com/ryan-mu...spect-profile/


Last edited by Seto: 05-02-2012 at 11:48 PM.
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05-02-2012, 11:45 PM
  #38
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The Dumba vs. Murray debate. I'm a pro-Dumba guy because of what he projects to be. He has talents that you just can't teach. He does need to work on his defensive game, but like others have mentioned - he can be taught those things. If you're a top-5 pick, the organization has to have conviction that the player they select will reach their potential. The 'idea' of what Dumba can be fits the need of the Isles to a tee IMO. He's a RH shot (this is big for me) and has serious offensive tools. He brings a physical element that is sorely needed and he could be a gamebreaker. He's a swing for the fences.

Murray is solid. Like I've mentioned before, he's a better version of CDH in my eyes. While I won't mind if he's the pick, I see some redundancy in his skillset when you view him in the landscape of the other Isles defense prospects. He could indeed be the better pick, but I just can't help and play 'build my ideal team'. Dumba brings a skillset that no one else in the Isles system has and that's why I give the edge to him over Murray.

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05-03-2012, 12:22 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by A Pointed Stick View Post
It wouldn't be the first time baloney was offered up for stats.

Do you really think Ness is 5'10" tall?
they take into account how tall the player is in heels.

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05-03-2012, 12:34 AM
  #40
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The Dumba vs. Murray debate. I'm a pro-Dumba guy because of what he projects to be. He has talents that you just can't teach. He does need to work on his defensive game, but like others have mentioned - he can be taught those things. If you're a top-5 pick, the organization has to have conviction that the player they select will reach their potential. The 'idea' of what Dumba can be fits the need of the Isles to a tee IMO. He's a RH shot (this is big for me) and has serious offensive tools. He brings a physical element that is sorely needed and he could be a gamebreaker. He's a swing for the fences.
But does Dumba possess the hockey IQ to be able to do it? The games I saw at the U-18, his offensive skills are obvious. But I also noticed that he does tend to try for big hits when there's no reason to even do so. I saw him twice try to throw thundering hits when a guy was coming in on him on a 1-on-1 situation, with nothing but a breakaway for the opponent if he missed the hit.

He also does what I like to refer to as the Brooks Orpik play. That is, get so intent on throwing a hit that he chases a guy and puts himself well out of position in the process. Sure, he might have nailed a guy in open ice ... but which results in his defense partner facing a two on one in their own zone.

Time will tell, obviously, and I've certainly not seen him enough to make a definite statement. But in the games I did see, I see a lot of Dion Phaneuf in him. And that's including Dion's questionable defensive positioning and tendency to go for a big hit when it isn't necessary.

Quote:
Murray is solid. Like I've mentioned before, he's a better version of CDH in my eyes. While I won't mind if he's the pick, I see some redundancy in his skillset when you view him in the landscape of the other Isles defense prospects. He could indeed be the better pick, but I just can't help and play 'build my ideal team'. Dumba brings a skillset that no one else in the Isles system has and that's why I give the edge to him over Murray.
I don't really see Murray and de Haan being similar at all. Murray projects to be a legitimate top pairing shutdown guy, who can also chip in 30 or so points a season. De Haan, on the other hand (pardon the pun), projects more as a smooth skating, mobile puck carrier, but who isn't ever going to be a defensive stud in his own zone. So in that regard, I don't think Murray would be redundant on the Isles.

If anything, he'd almost be perfect on the Isles next to Hamonic. Not to get ahead of things, but that has the potential to be like Nashville's Suter/Weber duo, with Murray obviously playing the part of Ryan Suter. I don't think de Haan projects to be that sort of player.

My 2 cents.

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05-06-2012, 06:27 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
But does Dumba possess the hockey IQ to be able to do it? The games I saw at the U-18, his offensive skills are obvious. But I also noticed that he does tend to try for big hits when there's no reason to even do so. I saw him twice try to throw thundering hits when a guy was coming in on him on a 1-on-1 situation, with nothing but a breakaway for the opponent if he missed the hit.

He also does what I like to refer to as the Brooks Orpik play. That is, get so intent on throwing a hit that he chases a guy and puts himself well out of position in the process. Sure, he might have nailed a guy in open ice ... but which results in his defense partner facing a two on one in their own zone.

Time will tell, obviously, and I've certainly not seen him enough to make a definite statement. But in the games I did see, I see a lot of Dion Phaneuf in him. And that's including Dion's questionable defensive positioning and tendency to go for a big hit when it isn't necessary.

I don't really see Murray and de Haan being similar at all. Murray projects to be a legitimate top pairing shutdown guy, who can also chip in 30 or so points a season. De Haan, on the other hand (pardon the pun), projects more as a smooth skating, mobile puck carrier, but who isn't ever going to be a defensive stud in his own zone. So in that regard, I don't think Murray would be redundant on the Isles.

If anything, he'd almost be perfect on the Isles next to Hamonic. Not to get ahead of things, but that has the potential to be like Nashville's Suter/Weber duo, with Murray obviously playing the part of Ryan Suter. I don't think de Haan projects to be that sort of player.

My 2 cents.
Your two cents are always appreciated STK.

Dumba is certainly a wildcard. I just can't help being blinded by his dynamic skillset. I'd like to believe that his deficiencies defensively are a result of overexhuberance on his part. He is still so young and he's certainly a wild stallion in his style of play. I can't fault a kid for caring too much and wanting to make an impact every shift - I actually laud him for that. While I don't think he'll ever be a defensive stud, he certainly has the tools to be. As he matures, I think his game will evolve into less recklessness. I could be way off in my assessment, but I love the 'idea' of Dumba and how he fits on the Isles.

I think I should be more specific in my CDH and Murray comparison. While I agree that they are different players, they essentially have the same value in terms of impact for next year and possibly the year after. Murray is NHL ready and he could be a solid top-4 guy for us next year. CDH is still 20 as of today, but he could be a solid top-4 guy for us next year just as well. I'm probably nitpicking because if Murray was a RH shot, I'd take him in a heartbeat, but my redundancy comment is more a result of looking at the depth of LH d-men in the system. Donovan isn't looking too bad either. If you're picking 4th and you have your choice of any d-man in the draft, I'd just like to draft someone with a skillset and upside different from anyone else in the system. Oh yeah, he's gotta be a RH shot - I know I'm obsessing over that one thing.

With all that said, the Isles will go forward in this draft. I'm convinced of it.

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05-06-2012, 08:18 PM
  #42
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Even something like going after a guy to make a hit and putting you out of position can be learned as well through experience and maturity.

I agree that Dumba sounds like a better grab than Murray because of all the cards he brings to the table and what our needs are. RH shot, check. Plays mean, check. Chips in offensively, check. This team is begging for another Kasparaitis minus the alcoholism and adding the offense. Darius could single handedly change the momentum in a game on his hitting alone. Imagine a guy who can do this as well as rush up the ice and score to make a difference?

With that said I still want Forsberg or Galenychuk, lol. I don't want a defenseman at number 4...

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05-06-2012, 08:32 PM
  #43
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I think Dumba may turn out to be a Wisniewski Esque defenseman, which isn't the worst thing in the world. We could really use some toughness on the back end IMO.

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05-06-2012, 08:52 PM
  #44
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I don't think we should assume Garth is picking a foward on draft day, last year he didn't have the chance to draft Larsson who was widely viewed as a player who can make an immediate impact. How do you know he wouldn't have picked Larsson if he was on the board at five? Yes, I understand he passed on Hamilton, but so did three other teams until he fell into the Bruins' lap at nine, it's not like Dougie was the consensus pick at five. Also, Gudbranson was off the board when we drafted in 2010, how do you know Garth wouldn't have picked him? Again, Fowler was on the board, but FIVE other teams passed up on him, there was obviously something that really concerned scouts. In addition, Doughty, Bogosian, and Pietrangelo were off the board when he drafted in '08. Luke Schenn was on the board but Garth smartly traded down because Schenn has been a disaster since coming in the league. All in all what I'm trying to say is Garth hasn't had the shot to draft a top defenseman in a draft class, which lead to taking a foward, who are easier to project than a defenseman.

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05-06-2012, 11:06 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaStromey View Post
I don't think we should assume Garth is picking a foward on draft day, last year he didn't have the chance to draft Larsson who was widely viewed as a player who can make an immediate impact. How do you know he wouldn't have picked Larsson if he was on the board at five? Yes, I understand he passed on Hamilton, but so did three other teams until he fell into the Bruins' lap at nine, it's not like Dougie was the consensus pick at five. Also, Gudbranson was off the board when we drafted in 2010, how do you know Garth wouldn't have picked him? Again, Fowler was on the board, but FIVE other teams passed up on him, there was obviously something that really concerned scouts. In addition, Doughty, Bogosian, and Pietrangelo were off the board when he drafted in '08. Luke Schenn was on the board but Garth smartly traded down because Schenn has been a disaster since coming in the league. All in all what I'm trying to say is Garth hasn't had the shot to draft a top defenseman in a draft class, which lead to taking a foward, who are easier to project than a defenseman.
I hold out hope that you're right and you make good points. Aside from Snow's regime, the Isles haven't drafted a d-man with their first 1st rounder since 1995 - Wade Redden who Ryan Murray reminds me A LOT of, interesting. The safe money is that they go forward.

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05-07-2012, 01:43 PM
  #46
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Your two cents are always appreciated STK.

Dumba is certainly a wildcard. I just can't help being blinded by his dynamic skillset. I'd like to believe that his deficiencies defensively are a result of overexhuberance on his part. He is still so young and he's certainly a wild stallion in his style of play. I can't fault a kid for caring too much and wanting to make an impact every shift - I actually laud him for that. While I don't think he'll ever be a defensive stud, he certainly has the tools to be. As he matures, I think his game will evolve into less recklessness. I could be way off in my assessment, but I love the 'idea' of Dumba and how he fits on the Isles.

I think I should be more specific in my CDH and Murray comparison. While I agree that they are different players, they essentially have the same value in terms of impact for next year and possibly the year after. Murray is NHL ready and he could be a solid top-4 guy for us next year. CDH is still 20 as of today, but he could be a solid top-4 guy for us next year just as well. I'm probably nitpicking because if Murray was a RH shot, I'd take him in a heartbeat, but my redundancy comment is more a result of looking at the depth of LH d-men in the system. Donovan isn't looking too bad either. If you're picking 4th and you have your choice of any d-man in the draft, I'd just like to draft someone with a skillset and upside different from anyone else in the system. Oh yeah, he's gotta be a RH shot - I know I'm obsessing over that one thing.

With all that said, the Isles will go forward in this draft. I'm convinced of it.
With regards to the righthanded shot thing, I honestly don't think it's that big a deal. Especially when (for whatever reason) LH shots seem able to play their off-side a lot easier than RH shots do. Murray, for example, is a LH shot, but played on the right side on Canada's shutdown pairing with Scott Harrington (another lefty). So while I suppose ideally you want RH and LH on their more natural side, I don't think it's that big of a stumbling block if the player is the better overall choice (which, IMO, Murray is over Dumba).

A part of me also leans toward Murray over Dumba due to their "downside". With Murray, even if he doesn't pan out as good as expected, he's still a pretty safe bet to be a bottom pairing defensive type (Mark Eaton in his better days, for example). Whereas a guy like Dumba seems to have more inherent risk in being a boom/bust type. He could be anywhere from a legitimate top pairing powerplay QB, to a Garnett Exelby/Bobby Sanguinetti hybrid.

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05-07-2012, 01:56 PM
  #47
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With regards to the righthanded shot thing, I honestly don't think it's that big a deal. Especially when (for whatever reason) LH shots seem able to play their off-side a lot easier than RH shots do. Murray, for example, is a LH shot, but played on the right side on Canada's shutdown pairing with Scott Harrington (another lefty). So while I suppose ideally you want RH and LH on their more natural side, I don't think it's that big of a stumbling block if the player is the better overall choice (which, IMO, Murray is over Dumba).

A part of me also leans toward Murray over Dumba due to their "downside". With Murray, even if he doesn't pan out as good as expected, he's still a pretty safe bet to be a bottom pairing defensive type (Mark Eaton in his better days, for example). Whereas a guy like Dumba seems to have more inherent risk in being a boom/bust type. He could be anywhere from a legitimate top pairing powerplay QB, to a Garnett Exelby/Bobby Sanguinetti hybrid.
Go big or go home!

You're probably right that I'm putting too much emphasis on the RH and LH shot, but it's car shopping time at the draft. I want to pack in as many options as possible for my new toy and want it my way no matter how trivial the options may be.

As for the downside, I do agree with you except for Dumba could be another Kasparaitis in terms of his physical play at his potential floor IMO. If anything, he could bring people out of their seats with a big hit. We haven't had that on LI for quite some time, I'd love to have that element back on this team.

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05-07-2012, 02:14 PM
  #48
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Go big or go home!

You're probably right that I'm putting too much emphasis on the RH and LH shot, but it's car shopping time at the draft. I want to pack in as many options as possible for my new toy and want it my way no matter how trivial the options may be.

As for the downside, I do agree with you except for Dumba could be another Kasparaitis in terms of his physical play at his potential floor IMO. If anything, he could bring people out of their seats with a big hit. We haven't had that on LI for quite some time, I'd love to have that element back on this team.
The upside to drafting Dumba is you've already got the perfect headline to put in the paper if he poses in a picture with Charles Wang or Garth Snow: "Dumb and Dumba"

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05-07-2012, 04:11 PM
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Just the fact that we will (hopefully) be getting one of: Murray, Grigorenko, or Galchenyuk pleases me.

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05-07-2012, 07:04 PM
  #50
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This is our 41st draft:

1972: Billy Harris
1973: Denis Potvin
1974: Clark Gillies
1975: *Pat Price
1976: *Alex McKendry
1977: Mike Bossy
1978: *Steve Tambelinni
1979: Duane Sutter
1980: Brent Sutter
1981: *Paul Boutilier
1982: Patrick Flatley
1983: Pat LaFontaine
1983: *Gerald Diduck
1984: *Duncan MacPheason
1985: *Brad Dalgarno
1985: Derek King
1986: Tom Fitzgerald
1987: *Dean Chynoweth
1988: *Kevin Chevyldayoff
1989: *Dave Chyzowski
1990: *Scott Scissons
1991: *Scott LaChance
1992: Darius Kasparaitis
1993: *Todd Bertuzzi
1994: *Brett Lindros
1995: Wade Redden
1996: *J.P. Dumont
1997: *Roberto Luongo
1998: *Mike Rupp
1999: *Tim Connolly
1999: *Taylor Pyatt
1999: *Branislav Mezei
1999: *Kristian Kudroc
2000: *Rick DiPietro
2000: *Raffi Torres
2002: *Sean Bergenheim
2003: *Robert Nilsson
2004: *Paterri Nokelainen
2005: *Ryan O'Marra
2006: Kyle Okposo
2008: Josh Bailey
2009: John Tavares
2009: **Calvin de Haan
2010: Nino Niederreiter
2011: Ryan Strome

* denotes bust or very little impact on our team.

Tom Fitzgeral avoids asterisk on the strength of 1992-93

Wade Redden avoids asterisk because he was traded for Bryan Berard

** denotes that the player is still young enough to prove a point because he's played too few games.

Okposo, Bailey, and Niederreiter have a reasonable chance of busting.

With 45 picks, the Islanders have:

13 successes (Some of them generous)

27 failures

4 question marks in Bailey, Okposo, Neiderreiter and Strome

1 Who has played too few games to tell (de Haan)

.... so why do we get excited about the draft?

Bauer Warrior* is offline  
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