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Improving Adjusted Scoring and Comparing Scoring of Top Tier Players Across Eras

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Old
05-03-2012, 06:06 PM
  #76
plusandminus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
...study...
I have now somewhat repeated your study, doing it for all seasons from 1948-49 to 2010-11. I use factual points per game for players being 23-27 years old during the first of the two seasons compared, and they should have played at least 40 games during each of the two seasons and scored at least 15 points during each two (to avoid extreme point per game changes). Only Canadian forwards, about 20 per season during O6 and then at least 40 per season from that onwards.
Results are preliminary so far, but a few notes. There seem to have been a large increase between 1971-72-73 (WHA started, NHL expanded from 12 to 14 teams using a balanced schedule meaning getting to play 12 more easy games). The 1973-74-75 also seem to indicate a change (NHL going from 16 to 18 teams, and Washington allowing 446 goals in 80 games, while WHA still existing).

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05-03-2012, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
I have now somewhat repeated your study, doing it for all seasons from 1948-49 to 2010-11. I use factual points per game for players being 23-27 years old during the first of the two seasons compared, and they should have played at least 40 games during each of the two seasons and scored at least 15 points during each two (to avoid extreme point per game changes). Only Canadian forwards, about 20 per season during O6 and then at least 40 per season from that onwards.
Results are preliminary so far, but a few notes. There seem to have been a large increase between 1971-72-73 (WHA started, NHL expanded from 12 to 14 teams using a balanced schedule meaning getting to play 12 more easy games). The 1973-74-75 also seem to indicate a change (NHL going from 16 to 18 teams, and Washington allowing 446 goals in 80 games, while WHA still existing).
Are the increases in actual or adjusted PPG?

There were distinct increases in '73 and '75, after a huge increase in '68. After '76, there appeared 6 successive decreases.

Do you think ages 23-27 is a bit restrictive?

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05-03-2012, 06:50 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Are the increases in actual or adjusted PPG?

There were distinct increases in '73 and '75, after a huge increase in '68. After '76, there appeared 6 successive decreases.

Do you think ages 23-27 is a bit restrictive?
Actual Points per game.
Yes, the increase in 1973 and also 1975 I can see, but not necessarily 1968. I will look more into it later. It's bedtime now.
I don't think ages 23-27 is too restrictive. But I'll look more into that too to see if there is some kind of unbalance (for example far more 23 year olds than 27 year olds).
Problem with players <23 years old is that they naturally tend to increase their scoring by pretty much from season to season, while players above 30 tends to steadily decrease.

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05-03-2012, 07:45 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
Actual Points per game.
Yes, the increase in 1973 and also 1975 I can see, but not necessarily 1968.
When the number of teams doubles overnight, the average quality of players of any age group is going to decrease substantially, so their collective PPG should drop significantly. This is why I used a fixed group of players.

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07-30-2012, 09:03 PM
  #80
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I've added quite a few post-expansion players since I posted this thread. The data has been updated to reflect this. I need to add some more players, particularly since the last lockout, but so far it appears adjusted points have become slightly more difficult since the lockout.

I wanted to include a list of players and how many seasons were used for each, to give an idea of how few seasons were deducted. These are the players included born through 1973 (SP= season pairs used, which will be at least 1 less than years used):

PLAYERYRSSP
Apps32
O'Connor65
BentleyD65
ConacherR54
Dumart65
Lach98
Abel65
Schmidt109
Carveth54
Reay87
Laprade76
Kaleta54
BentleyM98
McFadden65
ConacherJ54
RichardM1514
Warwick43
Mosienko109
Quackenbush1110
Gee98
Mosdell87
Peters87
Klukay87
Leswick1110
Watson1211
StewartG76
Poile43
Gardner1211
Meeker65
Harvey1514
SmithS87
Peirson65
Lindsay1312
Curry87
Guidolin76
Kennedy109
Raleigh98
Olmstead1312
Hergesheimer54
Kelly2019
Gadsby1817
Prystai109
Pavelich109
Sloan1110
Mickoski1110
HoweG2423
Ronty76
Sandford75
MacKell1110
Stasiuk76
Hebenton87
SullivanR97
Armstrong1817
ReibelD32
Moore87
Skov87
Geoffrion1412
Labine109
Toppazzini98
Beliveau2019
Pilote1312
Marshall1413
Litzenberger87
Bathgate1413
Prentice1918
Delvecchio2221
Henry119
Wharram98
Provost1312
Goyette87
Nesterenko1312
Mohns1716
McKenney109
Ingarfield109
Bucyk1918
Hay87
Ullman1818
Duff1413
RichardH1514
Pulford1413
BackstromR1413
Oliver1413
McKenzie1211
MahovlichF1211
Nevin1413
TremblayG1514
HullBo1514
Pappin119
Berenson76
Keon1514
WilliamsTo109
Mikita1918
Rousseau1210
Westfall1312
Ratelle1413
Hadfield1312
Gilbert1413
MacDonaldLo43
PariseJP1110
Esposito1615
Larose1312
HendersonP98
Dornhoefer109
HextallD1110
Flett98
Stemkowski98
Boudrias54
Cournoyer1413
MartinP1615
Schock1110
Stanfield98
Hodge1110
Goldsworthy98
HullD109
Ellis1110
Schmautz1110
Cashman1413
Lemaire1211
Vadnais1110
Libett1211
Pronovost1312
Grant65
SandersonD109
Meehan87
Koroll109
MahovlichP1110
Fairbairn98
Lonsberry1211
Marcotte76
Lorentz98
McKechnie1210
Widing64
Unger1211
Tkaczuk1312
RedmondM76
Lapointe98
Orr1110
Park1716
Luce98
Drouin76
Robert1110
Charron109
SheppardG1211
Clarke1312
RedmondD109
Boldirev1413
Stackhouse1110
Goring1413
MacLeish109
Leach1110
MurphyM109
Sittler1413
Maloney98
Perreault1716
Ramsay1413
Salming1716
Vickers98
Robinson1514
O'Reilly1312
Kehoe1211
MartinR109
Dionne1716
Lafleur1312
Harris98
Boutette109
McNab1211
Shutt1211
Barber1211
Lever1211
MacMillan98
McDonaldL1211
Lysiak1211
Vail87
PotvinD1514
Middleton1312
Simmer98
Gillies1312
Gare1110
Rogers65
Greschner1312
YoungT98
Bridgman1211
HoweM1110
Paiement1312
Larouche1413
Maruk1211
Mondou87
Taylor1413
Gradin98
MaloneG109
Federko1413
Trottier1312
LarsonR1211
Nilsson87
TremblayM1211
Sharpley54
StastnyP1413
SutterBri87
Chouinard87
Bossy109
McCourt76
MullenJ1413
Tonelli1211
WilsonD1211
Duguay109
Smyl109
SmithB1413
MacLeanP98
Linseman1110
Foligno1110
Propp1312
Christian1312
Vaive1110
Ogrodnick1413
StastnyA87
Kisio1110
Gartner1817
NaslundMats87
Broten109
Kerr108
Ciccarelli1918
Goulet1413
Kurri1615
Steen1312
Hunter1412
Anderson1514
Bourque2221
Messier2423
Gretzky2019
SavardD1615
MurphyL2019
Bullard98
Pederson64
Babych1614
Coffey1514
Larmer1312
Nicholls1615
Sundstrom98
Chelios1615
SutterBre1211
CourtnallG1615
Oates1615
Francis2322
Hawerchuk1615
Gilmour2019
Ridley1211
MacInnis2019
Carpenter1110
Thomas1615
Andreychuk2221
Dineen109
Housley2120
Tocchet1716
Verbeek1817
SuterG1410
Craven1311
HullBr1716
Ferraro1715
Bellows1211
Sandstrom1312
MacLeanJ1513
Lafontaine1514
StevensK109
Yzerman1918
CourntallR1413
Neely109
Duchesne1615
Ronning1715
LemieuxM1714
Muller1312
Robitaille1817
BrownJ1110
Roberts1715
Sheppard119
Richer1514
Mellanby2019
Olczyk98
Nieuwendyk1817
Simpson109
Janney1110
Damphousse1817
Recchi2120
Bondra1413
Leetch1716
Fleury1514
Carson76
Shanahan1918
Mogilny1413
LeClair1312
Sakic1918
Cassels1312
TurgeonP1716
BlakeR1918
Fedorov1817
Roenick1615
Lidstrom2019
Modano2019
Selanne1918
Zubov1514
Amonte1514
Brind'Amour1918
Zhamnov1211
Guerin1716
Holik1716
Weight1817
Sundin1716
Bure1211
YoungS1513
Nolan1715
Jagr1715
Tkachuk1413
KozlovVysla1615
Palffy109
Whitney1715
Alfredsson1615
Rolston1716
Kovalev1615
Lindros1311
Forsberg1210
NaslundMk1312
Brunette1615
Niedermayer1716
Yashin1210
Stillman1514
Gonchar1615
SullivanS1513
Arnott1817
Kariya1413
Satan1312
KoivuS1514
Demitra1110

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07-31-2012, 04:52 PM
  #81
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Graphs of Historical Scoring by Tiers

This is from a study I did about changes in PPG for the better players from season to season:



This is how the average of different tiers of players scored, using simple adjusted data (schedule, league gpg, assist/goal ratio), where N = number of teams in NHL (1st N = 1 to N, 2nd N = N+1 to 2N, etc.):



These are the same tiers using adjusted gpg from my study:



Note: Adjusted to 6.00 gpg, 1.667 assists/goal and 82 games.

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08-07-2012, 03:12 AM
  #82
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Here's the top 12, second 12, and third 12 players in scoring using the adjusted gpg from my study:


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11-06-2012, 12:35 PM
  #83
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I ran another regression from 1968-2012.

Y was the average adjusted points of the top N players (N = number of teams).

Xn = number of teams
Xf = standard deviation of teams' GF
Xa = standard deviation of teams' GA
Xe = percent of top N forwards which were non-Canadian
Xg = league GPG
Xp = ratio of special teams goals to all goals

The new results are:

B = 82
Mn = (0.44)
Mf = 87
Ma = (18)
Me = 8.1
Mg = (.74)
Mp = 42

R^2 = .56

All variables appear significant, with Xa having the lowest t-score of ~4.8 (Ma/SEa = .73, N^.5 = 6.6).

I think this model holds a lot of promise, with R^2 > .5, all variables significant, and I thought this was interesting as well:

Standard deviation of Y (avg. adjusted points of top N players) was 3.86, and only 3/44 predicted values of Y varied from the actual value by more than this (the highest deviation was ~1.6 std dev). Each of those three predicted values was lower than the actual value, possibly in part due to some of the best players being in the league and having strong seasons (Orr, Espo, etc. in '72... Lemieux, Jagr, etc. in '96 & '97).

Some of the varaibles may improve with further refinement. It may be useful to define a variable that will somehow capture the effect of having so much top talent in the league, but not exactly sure what the best and fairest way to do that might be. Any suggestions welcome.

For those not familiar with regression, this is what the model suggests at this stage:

For each additional team, Y decreases by .44
For each 1 % point increase in standard deviation of teams' GF, Y increases by .87
For each 1 % point increase in standard deviation of teams' GA, Y decreases by .18
For each 10 % point increase in % of non-Canadians in top N, Y increases by .81
For each .10 increase in league GPG, Y decreases by .07
For each 1 % point increase in special teams goals as % of total goals, Y increases by .42


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 11-17-2012 at 02:32 PM.
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