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# Improving Adjusted Scoring and Comparing Scoring of Top Tier Players Across Eras

05-03-2012, 06:06 PM
#76
plusandminus
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Czech Your Math ...study...
I have now somewhat repeated your study, doing it for all seasons from 1948-49 to 2010-11. I use factual points per game for players being 23-27 years old during the first of the two seasons compared, and they should have played at least 40 games during each of the two seasons and scored at least 15 points during each two (to avoid extreme point per game changes). Only Canadian forwards, about 20 per season during O6 and then at least 40 per season from that onwards.
Results are preliminary so far, but a few notes. There seem to have been a large increase between 1971-72-73 (WHA started, NHL expanded from 12 to 14 teams using a balanced schedule meaning getting to play 12 more easy games). The 1973-74-75 also seem to indicate a change (NHL going from 16 to 18 teams, and Washington allowing 446 goals in 80 games, while WHA still existing).

05-03-2012, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by plusandminus I have now somewhat repeated your study, doing it for all seasons from 1948-49 to 2010-11. I use factual points per game for players being 23-27 years old during the first of the two seasons compared, and they should have played at least 40 games during each of the two seasons and scored at least 15 points during each two (to avoid extreme point per game changes). Only Canadian forwards, about 20 per season during O6 and then at least 40 per season from that onwards. Results are preliminary so far, but a few notes. There seem to have been a large increase between 1971-72-73 (WHA started, NHL expanded from 12 to 14 teams using a balanced schedule meaning getting to play 12 more easy games). The 1973-74-75 also seem to indicate a change (NHL going from 16 to 18 teams, and Washington allowing 446 goals in 80 games, while WHA still existing).
Are the increases in actual or adjusted PPG?

There were distinct increases in '73 and '75, after a huge increase in '68. After '76, there appeared 6 successive decreases.

Do you think ages 23-27 is a bit restrictive?

05-03-2012, 06:50 PM
#78
plusandminus
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Czech Your Math Are the increases in actual or adjusted PPG? There were distinct increases in '73 and '75, after a huge increase in '68. After '76, there appeared 6 successive decreases. Do you think ages 23-27 is a bit restrictive?
Actual Points per game.
Yes, the increase in 1973 and also 1975 I can see, but not necessarily 1968. I will look more into it later. It's bedtime now.
I don't think ages 23-27 is too restrictive. But I'll look more into that too to see if there is some kind of unbalance (for example far more 23 year olds than 27 year olds).
Problem with players <23 years old is that they naturally tend to increase their scoring by pretty much from season to season, while players above 30 tends to steadily decrease.

05-03-2012, 07:45 PM
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by plusandminus Actual Points per game. Yes, the increase in 1973 and also 1975 I can see, but not necessarily 1968.
When the number of teams doubles overnight, the average quality of players of any age group is going to decrease substantially, so their collective PPG should drop significantly. This is why I used a fixed group of players.

07-30-2012, 09:03 PM
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I've added quite a few post-expansion players since I posted this thread. The data has been updated to reflect this. I need to add some more players, particularly since the last lockout, but so far it appears adjusted points have become slightly more difficult since the lockout.

I wanted to include a list of players and how many seasons were used for each, to give an idea of how few seasons were deducted. These are the players included born through 1973 (SP= season pairs used, which will be at least 1 less than years used):

 PLAYER YRS SP Apps 3 2 O'Connor 6 5 BentleyD 6 5 ConacherR 5 4 Dumart 6 5 Lach 9 8 Abel 6 5 Schmidt 10 9 Carveth 5 4 Reay 8 7 Laprade 7 6 Kaleta 5 4 BentleyM 9 8 McFadden 6 5 ConacherJ 5 4 RichardM 15 14 Warwick 4 3 Mosienko 10 9 Quackenbush 11 10 Gee 9 8 Mosdell 8 7 Peters 8 7 Klukay 8 7 Leswick 11 10 Watson 12 11 StewartG 7 6 Poile 4 3 Gardner 12 11 Meeker 6 5 Harvey 15 14 SmithS 8 7 Peirson 6 5 Lindsay 13 12 Curry 8 7 Guidolin 7 6 Kennedy 10 9 Raleigh 9 8 Olmstead 13 12 Hergesheimer 5 4 Kelly 20 19 Gadsby 18 17 Prystai 10 9 Pavelich 10 9 Sloan 11 10 Mickoski 11 10 HoweG 24 23 Ronty 7 6 Sandford 7 5 MacKell 11 10 Stasiuk 7 6 Hebenton 8 7 SullivanR 9 7 Armstrong 18 17 ReibelD 3 2 Moore 8 7 Skov 8 7 Geoffrion 14 12 Labine 10 9 Toppazzini 9 8 Beliveau 20 19 Pilote 13 12 Marshall 14 13 Litzenberger 8 7 Bathgate 14 13 Prentice 19 18 Delvecchio 22 21 Henry 11 9 Wharram 9 8 Provost 13 12 Goyette 8 7 Nesterenko 13 12 Mohns 17 16 McKenney 10 9 Ingarfield 10 9 Bucyk 19 18 Hay 8 7 Ullman 18 18 Duff 14 13 RichardH 15 14 Pulford 14 13 BackstromR 14 13 Oliver 14 13 McKenzie 12 11 MahovlichF 12 11 Nevin 14 13 TremblayG 15 14 HullBo 15 14 Pappin 11 9 Berenson 7 6 Keon 15 14 WilliamsTo 10 9 Mikita 19 18 Rousseau 12 10 Westfall 13 12 Ratelle 14 13 Hadfield 13 12 Gilbert 14 13 MacDonaldLo 4 3 PariseJP 11 10 Esposito 16 15 Larose 13 12 HendersonP 9 8 Dornhoefer 10 9 HextallD 11 10 Flett 9 8 Stemkowski 9 8 Boudrias 5 4 Cournoyer 14 13 MartinP 16 15 Schock 11 10 Stanfield 9 8 Hodge 11 10 Goldsworthy 9 8 HullD 10 9 Ellis 11 10 Schmautz 11 10 Cashman 14 13 Lemaire 12 11 Vadnais 11 10 Libett 12 11 Pronovost 13 12 Grant 6 5 SandersonD 10 9 Meehan 8 7 Koroll 10 9 MahovlichP 11 10 Fairbairn 9 8 Lonsberry 12 11 Marcotte 7 6 Lorentz 9 8 McKechnie 12 10 Widing 6 4 Unger 12 11 Tkaczuk 13 12 RedmondM 7 6 Lapointe 9 8 Orr 11 10 Park 17 16 Luce 9 8 Drouin 7 6 Robert 11 10 Charron 10 9 SheppardG 12 11 Clarke 13 12 RedmondD 10 9 Boldirev 14 13 Stackhouse 11 10 Goring 14 13 MacLeish 10 9 Leach 11 10 MurphyM 10 9 Sittler 14 13 Maloney 9 8 Perreault 17 16 Ramsay 14 13 Salming 17 16 Vickers 9 8 Robinson 15 14 O'Reilly 13 12 Kehoe 12 11 MartinR 10 9 Dionne 17 16 Lafleur 13 12 Harris 9 8 Boutette 10 9 McNab 12 11 Shutt 12 11 Barber 12 11 Lever 12 11 MacMillan 9 8 McDonaldL 12 11 Lysiak 12 11 Vail 8 7 PotvinD 15 14 Middleton 13 12 Simmer 9 8 Gillies 13 12 Gare 11 10 Rogers 6 5 Greschner 13 12 YoungT 9 8 Bridgman 12 11 HoweM 11 10 Paiement 13 12 Larouche 14 13 Maruk 12 11 Mondou 8 7 Taylor 14 13 Gradin 9 8 MaloneG 10 9 Federko 14 13 Trottier 13 12 LarsonR 12 11 Nilsson 8 7 TremblayM 12 11 Sharpley 5 4 StastnyP 14 13 SutterBri 8 7 Chouinard 8 7 Bossy 10 9 McCourt 7 6 MullenJ 14 13 Tonelli 12 11 WilsonD 12 11 Duguay 10 9 Smyl 10 9 SmithB 14 13 MacLeanP 9 8 Linseman 11 10 Foligno 11 10 Propp 13 12 Christian 13 12 Vaive 11 10 Ogrodnick 14 13 StastnyA 8 7 Kisio 11 10 Gartner 18 17 NaslundMats 8 7 Broten 10 9 Kerr 10 8 Ciccarelli 19 18 Goulet 14 13 Kurri 16 15 Steen 13 12 Hunter 14 12 Anderson 15 14 Bourque 22 21 Messier 24 23 Gretzky 20 19 SavardD 16 15 MurphyL 20 19 Bullard 9 8 Pederson 6 4 Babych 16 14 Coffey 15 14 Larmer 13 12 Nicholls 16 15 Sundstrom 9 8 Chelios 16 15 SutterBre 12 11 CourtnallG 16 15 Oates 16 15 Francis 23 22 Hawerchuk 16 15 Gilmour 20 19 Ridley 12 11 MacInnis 20 19 Carpenter 11 10 Thomas 16 15 Andreychuk 22 21 Dineen 10 9 Housley 21 20 Tocchet 17 16 Verbeek 18 17 SuterG 14 10 Craven 13 11 HullBr 17 16 Ferraro 17 15 Bellows 12 11 Sandstrom 13 12 MacLeanJ 15 13 Lafontaine 15 14 StevensK 10 9 Yzerman 19 18 CourntallR 14 13 Neely 10 9 Duchesne 16 15 Ronning 17 15 LemieuxM 17 14 Muller 13 12 Robitaille 18 17 BrownJ 11 10 Roberts 17 15 Sheppard 11 9 Richer 15 14 Mellanby 20 19 Olczyk 9 8 Nieuwendyk 18 17 Simpson 10 9 Janney 11 10 Damphousse 18 17 Recchi 21 20 Bondra 14 13 Leetch 17 16 Fleury 15 14 Carson 7 6 Shanahan 19 18 Mogilny 14 13 LeClair 13 12 Sakic 19 18 Cassels 13 12 TurgeonP 17 16 BlakeR 19 18 Fedorov 18 17 Roenick 16 15 Lidstrom 20 19 Modano 20 19 Selanne 19 18 Zubov 15 14 Amonte 15 14 Brind'Amour 19 18 Zhamnov 12 11 Guerin 17 16 Holik 17 16 Weight 18 17 Sundin 17 16 Bure 12 11 YoungS 15 13 Nolan 17 15 Jagr 17 15 Tkachuk 14 13 KozlovVysla 16 15 Palffy 10 9 Whitney 17 15 Alfredsson 16 15 Rolston 17 16 Kovalev 16 15 Lindros 13 11 Forsberg 12 10 NaslundMk 13 12 Brunette 16 15 Niedermayer 17 16 Yashin 12 10 Stillman 15 14 Gonchar 16 15 SullivanS 15 13 Arnott 18 17 Kariya 14 13 Satan 13 12 KoivuS 15 14 Demitra 11 10

 07-31-2012, 04:52 PM #81 Czech Your Math Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: bohemia Country: Posts: 4,046 vCash: 500 Graphs of Historical Scoring by Tiers This is from a study I did about changes in PPG for the better players from season to season: This is how the average of different tiers of players scored, using simple adjusted data (schedule, league gpg, assist/goal ratio), where N = number of teams in NHL (1st N = 1 to N, 2nd N = N+1 to 2N, etc.): These are the same tiers using adjusted gpg from my study: Note: Adjusted to 6.00 gpg, 1.667 assists/goal and 82 games.
 08-07-2012, 03:12 AM #82 Czech Your Math Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: bohemia Country: Posts: 4,046 vCash: 500 Here's the top 12, second 12, and third 12 players in scoring using the adjusted gpg from my study:
 11-06-2012, 12:35 PM #83 Czech Your Math Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: bohemia Country: Posts: 4,046 vCash: 500 I ran another regression from 1968-2012. Y was the average adjusted points of the top N players (N = number of teams). Xn = number of teams Xf = standard deviation of teams' GF Xa = standard deviation of teams' GA Xe = percent of top N forwards which were non-Canadian Xg = league GPG Xp = ratio of special teams goals to all goals The new results are: B = 82 Mn = (0.44) Mf = 87 Ma = (18) Me = 8.1 Mg = (.74) Mp = 42 R^2 = .56 All variables appear significant, with Xa having the lowest t-score of ~4.8 (Ma/SEa = .73, N^.5 = 6.6). I think this model holds a lot of promise, with R^2 > .5, all variables significant, and I thought this was interesting as well: Standard deviation of Y (avg. adjusted points of top N players) was 3.86, and only 3/44 predicted values of Y varied from the actual value by more than this (the highest deviation was ~1.6 std dev). Each of those three predicted values was lower than the actual value, possibly in part due to some of the best players being in the league and having strong seasons (Orr, Espo, etc. in '72... Lemieux, Jagr, etc. in '96 & '97). Some of the varaibles may improve with further refinement. It may be useful to define a variable that will somehow capture the effect of having so much top talent in the league, but not exactly sure what the best and fairest way to do that might be. Any suggestions welcome. For those not familiar with regression, this is what the model suggests at this stage: For each additional team, Y decreases by .44 For each 1 % point increase in standard deviation of teams' GF, Y increases by .87 For each 1 % point increase in standard deviation of teams' GA, Y decreases by .18 For each 10 % point increase in % of non-Canadians in top N, Y increases by .81 For each .10 increase in league GPG, Y decreases by .07 For each 1 % point increase in special teams goals as % of total goals, Y increases by .42 Last edited by Czech Your Math: 11-17-2012 at 02:32 PM.

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