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The Official Jordan Staal Thread, Part III

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05-10-2012, 08:26 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by 10 Min Misconduct View Post
You don't think he may give a little hometown discount to stay on a team he loves?
Well, the thing is, there's a big difference between his real value and his market value. A discount on his real value would probably put him at 5 million. A discount on his market value would probably put him closer to 6 million.

It all depends what the guy wants to do. That has got to be a ridiculously hard situation too. You're 24, you love the team you're on, but you know that if you just hold out a year, you could get a contract worth 40-50 million bucks somewhere else. The difference Staal could make going to free agency v. stay with the Pens is probably in the 7-10 million dollar range.

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05-10-2012, 08:35 PM
  #102
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Well, the thing is, there's a big difference between his real value and his market value. A discount on his real value would probably put him at 5 million. A discount on his market value would probably put him closer to 6 million.

It all depends what the guy wants to do. That has got to be a ridiculously hard situation too. You're 24, you love the team you're on, but you know that if you just hold out a year, you could get a contract worth 40-50 million bucks somewhere else.
The problem is the size of the discount you're asking him to take. Sid and Geno both left a million and a half on the table (and they were restricted free agents coming on their second contracts). Put another way, Sid and Geno took about 15% less than what their unrestricted free agent value would have been. In the end, Orpik probably took a similar discount. Same with Neal this year (who's unrestricted free agent value probably would have been around 6M).

Now, Staal actually is an unrestricted free agent. He's 24 years old and is looking at signing quite possibly what will be the most lucrative contract of his career. Even with a more restrictive CBA, his free agent value, IMO, is going to be north of 7M. So, taking a 15% discount means signing in the low 6M range.

That, I could see him doing with the Penguins. BUT, anything south of 6M, and you're not asking him to take a discount. You're asking him to bend over and do more than Sid or Geno did in terms of being willing to take less.

End of the day, Staal has next to nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting to test his market value in free agency.

Where I think the equation changes is if he's traded to a team where he's willing to commit, because that team will acquire him with the understanding that it will cost maybe 7M to keep him and a willingness to pay that amount. That's when Staal has next to nothing to gain and everything to lose by not signing with that new team, especially when you consider what any failure to meet what will be the high expectations for what would be his 1C role and the terms of the new CBA could mean.

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05-10-2012, 08:55 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by 10 Min Misconduct View Post
You don't think he may give a little hometown discount to stay on a team he loves?
No. Purely a career thing, not personal. Keith Primeau got to the same place in Detroit a bunch of years ago. Too good to be just a checking center, was never going to supplant Yzerman and Fedorov, so was always going to be one while he was there.

Maybe Staal is willing to pull a Scotty Pippen and accept that role for the rest of his career for a chance at championships. So far he has. But even if that continues, he's not going leave, like $10 million on the table on a 7 year deal to accept a role he's too good for because he likes the city and his buddies.

At least, I wouldn't.

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05-10-2012, 09:00 PM
  #104
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No. Purely a career thing, not personal. Keith Primeau got to the same place in Detroit a bunch of years ago. Too good to be just a checking center, was never going to supplant Yzerman and Fedorov, so was always going to be one while he was there.

Maybe Staal is willing to pull a Scotty Pippen and accept that role for the rest of his career for a chance at championships. So far he has. But even if that continues, he's not going leave, like $10 million on the table on a 7 year deal to accept a role he's too good for because he likes the city and his buddies.

At least, I wouldn't.
Scotty Pippen accepted second fiddle role. You'd be asking Staal to be Luc Longley.

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05-10-2012, 09:03 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
The problem is the size of the discount you're asking him to take. Sid and Geno both left a million and a half on the table (and they were restricted free agents coming on their second contracts). Put another way, Sid and Geno took about 15% less than what their unrestricted free agent value would have been. In the end, Orpik probably took a similar discount. Same with Neal this year (who's unrestricted free agent value probably would have been around 6M).

Now, Staal actually is an unrestricted free agent. He's 24 years old and is looking at signing quite possibly what will be the most lucrative contract of his career. Even with a more restrictive CBA, his free agent value, IMO, is going to be north of 7M. So, taking a 15% discount means signing in the low 6M range.

That, I could see him doing with the Penguins. BUT, anything south of 6M, and you're not asking him to take a discount. You're asking him to bend over and do more than Sid or Geno did in terms of being willing to take less.

End of the day, Staal has next to nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting to test his market value in free agency.

Where I think the equation changes is if he's traded to a team where he's willing to commit, because that team will acquire him with the understanding that it will cost maybe 7M to keep him and a willingness to pay that amount. That's when Staal has next to nothing to gain and everything to lose by not signing with that new team, especially when you consider what any failure to meet what will be the high expectations for what would be his 1C role and the terms of the new CBA could mean.
100 point players are in the 7 million dollar per year range. I can't see many GM's being willing to give him a deal like that, especially GM's who are leading contenders. That's a ridiculously risky move.

Jordan Staal's comparables have him in the 5-6 range. In the opened market, a team will overpay for him, but not to the tune of 1.0+ million dollars. Not going to say I couldn't see it happening, but I don't think it's very likely, unless he put together a 35-40 goal, 70-80 point campaign season this year.

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05-10-2012, 09:25 PM
  #106
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Scotty Pippen accepted second fiddle role. You'd be asking Staal to be Luc Longley.
I'd say Toni Kukoc, when the Bulls needed scoring(like how the Pens needed it in the Playoffs) Kukoc came in and did his job.

That being said, The 3C model was always in Detroit, but they constantly switched the 3rd C in intervals. 1st it was Kozlov in the 90's, then later it was Primeau, then Datsyuk and now Filipula. I think Staalsy stays for another 3-4 years. Then ultimately gets traded in that time or tests Free Agency. This is if the CBA is salary compliant.

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05-10-2012, 09:44 PM
  #107
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I've said this in other thread, I know it won't happen but I would love.

Staal + Fleury. for Brown+Quick.

Hate to break it to you but LA wouldn't take Staal and Fleury for just Quick, let alone Quick and Brown. Quick is one of the most valuable players in the NHL right now and although Staal is not chopped liver, Fleury is in a bad place value-wise. No contending team is going to trade their G for him...

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05-10-2012, 10:48 PM
  #108
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100 point players are in the 7 million dollar per year range. I can't see many GM's being willing to give him a deal like that, especially GM's who are leading contenders. That's a ridiculously risky move.

Jordan Staal's comparables have him in the 5-6 range. In the opened market, a team will overpay for him, but not to the tune of 1.0+ million dollars. Not going to say I couldn't see it happening, but I don't think it's very likely, unless he put together a 35-40 goal, 70-80 point campaign season this year.
Yeah, I'm really having trouble dealing with the idea that he's going to make 7M dollars in the open market. I suppose some teams would do it, but those are more likely to be the bottom feeders looking to make a splash.

I don't know. Even with some decent numbers, he still looked like a goober a lot of the time, and even at his best this season, I still don't see him as a typical setup man playing the middle. Staal is a very, very good second line C but I'm sorry, I don't see him as a #1C on a contending team.

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05-10-2012, 11:01 PM
  #109
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I don't see anything Eric does that Staal can't do with the same role in due time. He's better positionally and if he builds on any of the playmaking I saw this season, he'll be better in that regard as well. Let alone his defensive play and being a stronger guy.

He'd be the #1C on the Blues and would have Perron/McDonald/Tarasenko on his wings with 1st unit PP time. Hes gonna put up numbers in that scenario.


Last edited by mpp9: 05-10-2012 at 11:13 PM.
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05-10-2012, 11:01 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by MtlPenFan View Post
Yeah, I'm really having trouble dealing with the idea that he's going to make 7M dollars in the open market. I suppose some teams would do it, but those are more likely to be the bottom feeders looking to make a splash.

I don't know. Even with some decent numbers, he still looked like a goober a lot of the time, and even at his best this season, I still don't see him as a typical setup man playing the middle. Staal is a very, very good second line C but I'm sorry, I don't see him as a #1C on a contending team.
He's 23 and has 70+ playoff games played. His potential is almost limitless. How can you cap a guy at such a young age man.

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05-10-2012, 11:05 PM
  #111
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You guys have things WAY too complicated. I can definitely understand all the arguments on both sides of the equation, as I have been on both. But the solution is extremely simple at the end of the day:

Either:

1) Staal gets traded. Period.

or

2a) Jordan Staal wants to stay; is willing to take a reasonable "comparable" salary (between 5 & 6); and the Pens give him a long, maybe very long, deal to make it worth his while in terms of financial security and in the event of injury; and perhaps they front-load the deal with signing bonus to guard against a possilbe work stoppage; and...

2b) The following structure is set out:

- you make 3 "scoring" lines, and provide Staal with good quality wingers, just the same way Sid & Geno have good quality wingers

- you put Staal's line out there in "offensive" situations, with the intention to score goals, and not just defend (sometimes this mere change is just a shift in perspective & purpose, not necessarily personnel)

- you take 2 minutes of PK time away from Jordan Staal, and you give this time to Crosby, Malkin and Neal. This will accomplish two things: 1) It will make Staal feel equal and that all of the Pens' "offensive" stars are getting PK time; and 2) it gives legitimate experience to those other guys to be used in PK situations, which they should be in the regular season and (especially) in the playoffs.

- you occasionally double-shift Staal with two of the 4th line wingers. This will gain back those 2 lost PK minutes and give Staal more offensive opportunity, as well as making our 4th line much better than if (say) Adams was centering it

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Crosby (maybe even Sid plays wing?)

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Malkin (maybe either plays wing)

- you occasionally put all 3 of them together, in any permutation of positions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Those last factors will give Staal all of the increased offensive "responsibility" and "opportunity" he wants to have, and rightfully deserves.

Having any one of those 3 guys only occasionally play out of their natural position will not piss-off any of them, and they all remain happy. It is essentially the '3-Center' model, but with some variations.

The only factors we need to execute this plan is buy-in & commitment from the coaching staff to spread the ice-time out in this fashion, which means more ice-time for the top-3 lines, and almost always a 4th line with one of the big 3 on it -- essentially we're rolling 4 lines, but mostly only 3 centers.

This last part brings up another, very relevant point: we may want to dress 7 defensemen some of the time. If we are successful in moving Martin & Lovejoy, and we don't want to lose Strait or Bortuzzo on waivers and can't find a good trade for them, we need to get ice-time for each of those latter 2 guys and give them a chance to develop and show their value at the NHL level. 7 defensemen, 11 forwards. Makes sense.

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05-10-2012, 11:13 PM
  #112
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Over under and Staal trade threads set at.......17. I will take the over.

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05-10-2012, 11:24 PM
  #113
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We can't surround Sid/Geno with proper scoring talent. How exactly do we surround all three of our centers without NHL 12 mode engaged ? Shero is not going to move the necessary salary on D and trust rookies, won't happen.

The more I think about it, I just don't see Staal on this roster longterm. If we were to ever trust Shero in getting a proper return in a trade of a player, it's Staal. We all know how highly he thinks of him. If a deal goes down, it'll be because of massive overpayment.

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05-10-2012, 11:25 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by jmelm View Post
You guys have things WAY too complicated. I can definitely understand all the arguments on both sides of the equation, as I have been on both. But the solution is extremely simple at the end of the day:

Either:

1) Staal gets traded. Period.

or

2a) Jordan Staal wants to stay; is willing to take a reasonable "comparable" salary (between 5 & 6); and the Pens give him a long, maybe very long, deal to make it worth his while in terms of financial security and in the event of injury; and perhaps they front-load the deal with signing bonus to guard against a possilbe work stoppage; and...

2b) The following structure is set out:

- you make 3 "scoring" lines, and provide Staal with good quality wingers, just the same way Sid & Geno have good quality wingers

- you put Staal's line out there in "offensive" situations, with the intention to score goals, and not just defend (sometimes this mere change is just a shift in perspective & purpose, not necessarily personnel)

- you take 2 minutes of PK time away from Jordan Staal, and you give this time to Crosby, Malkin and Neal. This will accomplish two things: 1) It will make Staal feel equal and that all of the Pens' "offensive" stars are getting PK time; and 2) it gives legitimate experience to those other guys to be used in PK situations, which they should be in the regular season and (especially) in the playoffs.

- you occasionally double-shift Staal with two of the 4th line wingers. This will gain back those 2 lost PK minutes and give Staal more offensive opportunity, as well as making our 4th line much better than if (say) Adams was centering it

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Crosby (maybe even Sid plays wing?)

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Malkin (maybe either plays wing)

- you occasionally put all 3 of them together, in any permutation of positions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Those last factors will give Staal all of the increased offensive "responsibility" and "opportunity" he wants to have, and rightfully deserves.

Having any one of those 3 guys only occasionally play out of their natural position will not piss-off any of them, and they all remain happy. It is essentially the '3-Center' model, but with some variations.

The only factors we need to execute this plan is buy-in & commitment from the coaching staff to spread the ice-time out in this fashion, which means more ice-time for the top-3 lines, and almost always a 4th line with one of the big 3 on it -- essentially we're rolling 4 lines, but mostly only 3 centers.

This last part brings up another, very relevant point: we may want to dress 7 defensemen some of the time. If we are successful in moving Martin & Lovejoy, and we don't want to lose Strait or Bortuzzo on waivers and can't find a good trade for them, we need to get ice-time for each of those latter 2 guys and give them a chance to develop and show their value at the NHL level. 7 defensemen, 11 forwards. Makes sense.
I really like most of your 2b idea, especially going with 7 D and 11 forwards. Just not the better wingers on his line idea...not sure how you'd be able to provide Staal with "good quality wingers" after he is signed to a new deal. He'd probably still be with Cooke/Kennedy (who aren't terrible but obviously aren't on par with Malkin's wingers). Only so much money to go around...

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05-10-2012, 11:42 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Hate to break it to you but LA wouldn't take Staal and Fleury for just Quick, let alone Quick and Brown. Quick is one of the most valuable players in the NHL right now and although Staal is not chopped liver, Fleury is in a bad place value-wise. No contending team is going to trade their G for him...
Yeah, nothing short of Geno would pry Quick out of LA's hands. I'm not even sure they'd do that, to be honest.

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05-10-2012, 11:46 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Scotty Pippen accepted second fiddle role. You'd be asking Staal to be Luc Longley.
True. I probably should have said Rodman, actually, but that would have connoted a whole hell of a lot of weirdness I wouldn't have intended.

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05-11-2012, 01:24 AM
  #117
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Don't work tomorrow and can't sleep. Apparently Suter said he's going to take 2 weeks to make a decision on whether he stays, and Poile went on record saying he's going to be doing both Weber and Suter's contracts "together".

Other than both of them wanting similar money, I think it's possible Weber may want out if Suter leaves. If that's the case, then I'd have Shero all over finding a way to sign Suter longterm at as low a caphit as possible. Or trading for Weber's RFA rights.

If both of those guys leave, Nashville is damn near back to rebuild stages. I don't think there are many more packages than Staal+Orpik/Michalek for Weber+ that could help smooth the transition more in the now while building for the future with a #1C they desperately need.

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05-11-2012, 05:54 AM
  #118
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Kulemin is like Neal or Staal. He doesn't seek out hits, but he's a load to handle.
The thing that I like most about Kulemin is how he hunts pucks. He seems like he would fit into DB's system. Another thing is that he doesn't need PP time to get points.

IMO a deal with the Leafs ends up being more about Ashton as a part coming back rather than Schenn. So Kulemin, Ashton and a 1st for Staal and Tangradi.

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05-11-2012, 07:05 AM
  #119
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To make the three scoring line setup work financially we'd probably need to go with the Duo with a third wheel setup.

Kunitz/Someone - Crosby
Malkin - Neal
Kunitz/Someone - Staal

and then get a good compliment to each line. TK and Dupuis could be decent third wheels with Sid and Staal but I'd want the "Someone" to be a good scorer playing with Sid in that case.

It's possible to get more but I don't think we'll open up the cap space on D to do it.

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05-11-2012, 07:16 AM
  #120
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If Jordan Staal gets traded Pens fans wont have anything to talk about during future offseasons.

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05-11-2012, 08:35 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by jmelm View Post
You guys have things WAY too complicated. I can definitely understand all the arguments on both sides of the equation, as I have been on both. But the solution is extremely simple at the end of the day:

Either:

1) Staal gets traded. Period.

or

2a) Jordan Staal wants to stay; is willing to take a reasonable "comparable" salary (between 5 & 6); and the Pens give him a long, maybe very long, deal to make it worth his while in terms of financial security and in the event of injury; and perhaps they front-load the deal with signing bonus to guard against a possilbe work stoppage; and...

2b) The following structure is set out:

- you make 3 "scoring" lines, and provide Staal with good quality wingers, just the same way Sid & Geno have good quality wingers

- you put Staal's line out there in "offensive" situations, with the intention to score goals, and not just defend (sometimes this mere change is just a shift in perspective & purpose, not necessarily personnel)

- you take 2 minutes of PK time away from Jordan Staal, and you give this time to Crosby, Malkin and Neal. This will accomplish two things: 1) It will make Staal feel equal and that all of the Pens' "offensive" stars are getting PK time; and 2) it gives legitimate experience to those other guys to be used in PK situations, which they should be in the regular season and (especially) in the playoffs.

- you occasionally double-shift Staal with two of the 4th line wingers. This will gain back those 2 lost PK minutes and give Staal more offensive opportunity, as well as making our 4th line much better than if (say) Adams was centering it

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Crosby (maybe even Sid plays wing?)

- you occasionally double shift Staal with Malkin (maybe either plays wing)

- you occasionally put all 3 of them together, in any permutation of positions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Those last factors will give Staal all of the increased offensive "responsibility" and "opportunity" he wants to have, and rightfully deserves.

Having any one of those 3 guys only occasionally play out of their natural position will not piss-off any of them, and they all remain happy. It is essentially the '3-Center' model, but with some variations.

The only factors we need to execute this plan is buy-in & commitment from the coaching staff to spread the ice-time out in this fashion, which means more ice-time for the top-3 lines, and almost always a 4th line with one of the big 3 on it -- essentially we're rolling 4 lines, but mostly only 3 centers.

This last part brings up another, very relevant point: we may want to dress 7 defensemen some of the time. If we are successful in moving Martin & Lovejoy, and we don't want to lose Strait or Bortuzzo on waivers and can't find a good trade for them, we need to get ice-time for each of those latter 2 guys and give them a chance to develop and show their value at the NHL level. 7 defensemen, 11 forwards. Makes sense.
1. Sid and Geno never have had two good wingers each. Either one has had two and the other has had **** or there's only been one.

2. That said . . . 1st for Kulemin, Orpik for Stewart, TK and Martin for Malone. It's a cap wash and give you Kunitz-Sid-Neal, Malone-Malkin-Kulemin, Tangradi-Staal-Stewart. Your fourth line is Cooke-Vitale-Dupuis. Adams is your 13th forward, which is another way of saying even if there was some world in which Shero would move Orpik and a 1st for the draft in Pittsburgh, there's no way Adams isn't a starter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
To make the three scoring line setup work financially we'd probably need to go with the Duo with a third wheel setup.

Kunitz/Someone - Crosby
Malkin - Neal
Kunitz/Someone - Staal

and then get a good compliment to each line. TK and Dupuis could be decent third wheels with Sid and Staal but I'd want the "Someone" to be a good scorer playing with Sid in that case.

It's possible to get more but I don't think we'll open up the cap space on D to do it.
That doesn't 'work'. That's diluting lines in the name of fairness. Either you move Staal and just give Sid and Geno two good wingers each (and then use Sid and Geno like Sutter uses Richards and Kopitar) or you continue to ride the 'let's try to plug the holes up front' model that they've used since Staal and Geno went into their second deals three years ago. There is another option, of course. I just spelled it out. It's called moving Martin and one of Orpik or Michalek, using the kids on defense, and then making a rental when the deadline comes to address what needs to be addressed on the blue line. That said, it won't happen.

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05-11-2012, 08:38 AM
  #122
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If Jordan Staal gets traded Pens fans wont have anything to talk about during future offseasons.
We'd still have Paul Martin.

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05-11-2012, 08:39 AM
  #123
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The thing that I like most about Kulemin is how he hunts pucks. He seems like he would fit into DB's system. Another thing is that he doesn't need PP time to get points.

IMO a deal with the Leafs ends up being more about Ashton as a part coming back rather than Schenn. So Kulemin, Ashton and a 1st for Staal and Tangradi.
I'm not giving Staal and Tangradi for Kulemin, Ashton, and the 5th overall. Neither is Shero. If he's not high on Schenn (and he might not be), then I could see Staal for Kulemin, Bozak (3rd line short term filler), Ashton, and the 5th overall. Shero is going to squeeze teams if he moves Staal. It will be about the offer that makes him stop hedging, not a 'fair' offer.

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05-11-2012, 08:45 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
100 point players are in the 7 million dollar per year range. I can't see many GM's being willing to give him a deal like that, especially GM's who are leading contenders. That's a ridiculously risky move.

Jordan Staal's comparables have him in the 5-6 range. In the opened market, a team will overpay for him, but not to the tune of 1.0+ million dollars. Not going to say I couldn't see it happening, but I don't think it's very likely, unless he put together a 35-40 goal, 70-80 point campaign season this year.
I'm not arguing with you that it's nuts. BUT, here's the thing: This year, with Crosby out, Staal was on a 40 goal, 70 point pace playing with Sullivan and Dupuis. No team will expect him to do that as a third line center with Cooke and Kennedy.

THAT is why I keep saying Staal has next to nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting to test free agency, because he knows another team will look, not at the third line center for Cooke and Kennedy, but the 24 year old kid who is still improving, has 70+ games of playoff experience, and has shown himself to be a 70+ point guy with inferior linemates any time an injury allows him to slot into a 2C spot. Teams will invest in that, not how Bylsma relegates Staal to a 3C role when Sid and Geno are healthy.

BUT, if Staal is moved, then the dynamic changes. Whatever team gets him will thrust him into that 1C role. Having made the mega deal, that team will try to lock Staal up to a high 6M+ deal right there. And, it will be in Staal's interest to sign unless he's absolutely opposed to playing for that team (which probably means the deal wouldn't have happened anyway, because no team would trade for him knowing that). It's in Staal's interest to sign before the new CBA and to sign before he gets a full season in that 1C role for a new organization because he'll be getting the money and the role he'd be looking for on July 1, 2013.

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05-11-2012, 08:50 AM
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Ogrezilla
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
That doesn't 'work'. That's diluting lines in the name of fairness. Either you move Staal and just give Sid and Geno two good wingers each (and then use Sid and Geno like Sutter uses Richards and Kopitar) or you continue to ride the 'let's try to plug the holes up front' model that they've used since Staal and Geno went into their second deals three years ago. There is another option, of course. I just spelled it out. It's called moving Martin and one of Orpik or Michalek, using the kids on defense, and then making a rental when the deadline comes to address what needs to be addressed on the blue line. That said, it won't happen.
I don't particularly like the lines I said there, I'm just saying that's probably the closest we are going to come to having three scoring lines. I love your solution but really it comes down to your last sentence. It won't happen.

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