If we miss out on Nicolas Kerdiles, then I hope we trade down and pick up a guy like Nieves and maybe a guy like Anton Slepyshev/Brian Hart/Jordan Martinook!
Here's an interesting 14 min. interview (podcast) from last year with Mike Futa (Co-Director of Amateur Scouting) about Draft strategy!
If we look at the past drafts it looks very clear to me that we are not going to draft a European prospect in the first round. Therefore we could almost scratch off Määtää, Byström, Lindholm and Pokka. Furthermore we have only drafted one swede under Dean Lombardi, which was Schumacher. I'm sure that Lombardi already knew that he was going to play in NA the upcoming season! Lombardi has a trend by drafting one or more russians somewhere in the draft!
Link fixed!
I know he was already in NA when he was drafted, but Moller is Swedish too.
Constantin Braun as well. Also he acquired Johan Franson, who was considered a prospect at the time, in the Norstrom trade.
I really think the days of DL taking older prospects in the draft are over. I honestly think Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis and Pelech were drafted mostly to build depth in Manchester to fill out the roster there and avoid the need to sign veteran players to fill space in Manch.
The Kings have gotten to a point where they are starting to have log jams not only in LA but in Manch as well. They already have Muzzin, Hickey, Mullen, Campbell, N.D., Kolomatis who will probably be around next year. LA's d is pretty much set with 7 D in Mitchell, DD, Scuderi, VV, Greene, A-Mart, and Drewiske for at least another year. Then you have Gravel, Forbort, and Roach who will be moving to Manchester in next few years... Forward is getting to a similiar situation as well.
I'm ok with targeting and drafting 4-5 guys this year in the later rounds for this year as long as they are the guys that DL wants. I really have a lot of faith in the Kings scouting staff in the later rounds given their recent track record of finding guys like Nolan, Loki, Vey, Kozun, Gravel, Kitsyn, Dowd, and Schumacher, in the mid to late rounds. That's a rather surprising amount of upside in that list all things considered so I'm ok with having no picks until the 4th round this year...
I really think the days of DL taking older prospects in the draft are over. I honestly think Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis and Pelech were drafted mostly to build depth in Manchester to fill out the roster there and avoid the need to sign veteran players to fill space in Manch.
I don't. Each year, aside from 2010, DL takes players bypassed in the draft the year before. Not counting 2006, which was done mostly with the staff Dave Taylor had assembled, the Kings have drafted the following players who were passed over at least once before:
2007: Wayne Simmonds, Alec Martinez, Joshua Turnbull
2008: Andrew Campbell, Justin Azevedo, Garrett Roe
2009: David Kolomatis, Michael Pelech, Brandon Kozun, Jordan Nolan, Nic Dowd
2010: no one
2011: Andy Andreoff, Joel Lowry
That's 13 in five years, including two last year. Of those 13, only six - Alec Martinez, Andrew Campbell, Justin Azevedo, David Kolomatis, Brandon Kozun, Jordan Nolan- played significant time in Manchester, and two of them (Martinez and Nolan) have cracked the NHL line up now. I doubt you'd find to many people who would agree the other four weren't drafted because they have some skill level and NHL upside as well.
I doubt very much that DL drafted any of them sinply to be minor league fodder. Considering some such as Lowry, Dowd and Roe went teh college route as well, they don't jive at all with the philosophy of drafting older players to stock Manchester.
I think drafting older players is a strategy for DL from at least round three onward. Older players are guys who are more developed and scouts can get a better read on how that player will pan out. DL seems to like to draft safer players, guys who are less likely to boom, but also have a greater chance of panning out. The biggest risks he likes to take are on guys like Kitsyn, and that would be a 6th round selection. That strategy has paid off for the most part, and we are, as you put it, well stocked in many ways. It does have it's flaws though, where we draft guys that are more surefire (Colten Teubert) over a boom or bust type (Tyler Myers).
I hope this year, if we get to keep our 1st, that DL swings for the fences on an offensive forward. I doubt it and expect a Brendan Gaunce/Stefan Matteau-type selection (big bodied, two-way type forward with character, strength and grit), but it'd be nice to see him go for a home run on a guy like Tomas Hertl.
Reverting back to the discussion of drafting older players, one that could look a bit obvious in hindsight might be Tanner Pearson, who was passed over last year but a possible first round pick this year.
Yeah, I tend to ignore the 2006 draft since DL was at the helm but it was still mostly Dave Taylor's scouts doing the draft. DL may have had some influence, like allowing the scouts to actually draft a goalie first round (Bernier) rather than following the shot-gun theory for later rounds like Taylor did, but the scouting and ranking was done mostly by the DT crew.
Didn't Kolomatis sign a contract extension last offseason? I believe he's signed for two more seasons. I think most of the dmen in Manchester are signed for a couple more seasons. Hickey will be moved this offseason IMO, freeing up 1 spot.
2007: Wayne Simmonds, Alec Martinez, Joshua Turnbull2008: Andrew Campbell, Justin Azevedo, Garrett Roe2009: David Kolomatis, Michael Pelech, Brandon Kozun, Jordan Nolan, Nic Dowd2010: no one
2011: Andy Andreoff, Joel Lowry
To me there's a big difference between drafting a 19 year old player that has CHL level experience and drafting a player out of college or that has committed to an NCAA school before being drafted as the bolded guys were.
With the CHL player you're forced to make a decision on the AHL or CHL debate pretty much right after they are drafted (were Simmonds and Kozun passed over or just "older" than the rest of their draft class because of the age cutoff?) as was the case with all of Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis, Pelech, Nolan, and Andreoff.
The NCAA player (or BCHL, USHL player) you draft them with the knowledge that you may not have to make a decision on them for 3-4 years in most cases.
To me comparing those two situations is really an apples to oranges debate. I was trying to make the point that at the time Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis, Pelech, and Nolan were drafted there wasn't much depth at the NHL or AHL level for the Kings and these guys were brought in as legitimate prospects that were veiwed as being able to hold down an AHL spot and if one of them made the NHL, Awesome! If not they serve as a good solid base for a competitve AHL roster while the Kings hold their rights and after they sign their ELC.
Basically drafting older Junior players is a pretty smart way to improve your overall roster depth across every level quickly and anything else gained is a bonus.
Didn't Kolomatis sign a contract extension last offseason? I believe he's signed for two more seasons. I think most of the dmen in Manchester are signed for a couple more seasons. Hickey will be moved this offseason IMO, freeing up 1 spot.
I think it was his first ELC actually, as he had been playing on an AHL contract after the Kings drafted him. But yeah, he is signed for two more seasons. I'm sure that moving anyone is a good call unless you get something in return since I think both Hickey, and Campbell are both waiver eligible next year as well and the Kings could one or both of them that way.
To me there's a big difference between drafting a 19 year old player that has CHL level experience and drafting a player out of college or that has committed to an NCAA school before being drafted as the bolded guys were.
With the CHL player you're forced to make a decision on the AHL or CHL debate pretty much right after they are drafted (were Simmonds and Kozun passed over or just "older" than the rest of their draft class because of the age cutoff?) as was the case with all of Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis, Pelech, Nolan, and Andreoff.
The NCAA player (or BCHL, USHL player) you draft them with the knowledge that you may not have to make a decision on them for 3-4 years in most cases.
To me comparing those two situations is really an apples to oranges debate. I was trying to make the point that at the time Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis, Pelech, and Nolan were drafted there wasn't much depth at the NHL or AHL level for the Kings and these guys were brought in as legitimate prospects that were veiwed as being able to hold down an AHL spot and if one of them made the NHL, Awesome! If not they serve as a good solid base for a competitve AHL roster while the Kings hold their rights and after they sign their ELC.
Basically drafting older Junior players is a pretty smart way to improve your overall roster depth across every level quickly and anything else gained is a bonus.
If that is what you meant, I agree. i took your original post to imply DL was selecting these guys not as actual prospects (outside of say a guy like SImmonds) but rather as farm fodder. If you mean he was selecting older players as prospects, I agree with you.
That said, if he was selecting them as prospects, why would he stop now, especially given the overall early success rates with some of them, particularly Martinez, Simmonds and Nolan?
I think it was his first ELC actually, as he had been playing on an AHL contract after the Kings drafted him. But yeah, he is signed for two more seasons. I'm sure that moving anyone is a good call unless you get something in return since I think both Hickey, and Campbell are both waiver eligible next year as well and the Kings could one or both of them that way.
Campbell was waiver eligible this year. He cleared waivers after being sent down in camp. I believe Hickey is waiver eligible next year.
We can draw some lines from this article about DL's strategy!
Quote:
Voynov's English is poor and he was not available to speak to SI.com for this story, but he idolized the great NHL defenseman Ray Bourque as a kid and started playing pro hockey at the age of 16, starting with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL. Lombardi says there was heavy pressure on Voynov to stay in Russia and the KHL. But the Kings GM and his scouts discovered that Voynov really wanted a career in the NHL instead, and they told him that he'd be a high draft pick by Los Angeles on one condition: "Before his draft, we talked to him and his agent and we said, 'OK, if we take you, you have to come to North America," Lombardi says, adding that Voynov's first destination was unclear because Quebec owned his junior rights. "When he came into camp, we clearly felt he was ready for the American League. And that is a very hard league to play in, particularly for a defenseman. It's more scrambly and it's physical, and he [was] an 18-year-old. As the junior rules worked, he did not have to be assigned to his junior team because he was drafted out of Russia."
Fortunately, Voynov's exemption spared the Kings from making the kind of thorny decision that Canadian forward Brayden Schenn, their first-round (fifth overall) draft pick presented in 2009: "You always run into that with these guys that age," Lombardi explains. "It's a bad choice. You either have to put him in the NHL, where he might not be good enough, or you've got to put him back in junior, where he's gone way beyond [the skill level], but you can't put him in the American League. And it was just easy for people to forget that when (Voynov) went there he was just 18. That's unheard of."
Lombardi can rightly be considered a pioneer among NHL GMs when it comes to importing Russians. In his early days in the San Jose Sharks' front office, he took many trips to former Soviet Union and convinced players such as Sergei Makarov, Viktor Kozlov, Sandis Ozolinsh, Andrei Nazarov and Andrei Zyuzin to come to the NHL.
"I rode a pickup truck in the backwoods of Siberia, going over to see Nazarov. So I've paid my dues over there," Lombardi says. "I remember I broke down on the friggin' highway once, in the pitch black. I'll never forget it. Then a cab came by that had a busted radiator. It got us into town, but the town was actually one of the areas where they built nuclear bombs. Going in there, we were followed the whole time. But it was a great experience. Getting to know those families and kids there, and their hopes and dreams, was real rewarding."
That strategy has paid off for the most part, and we are, as you put it, well stocked in many ways. It does have it's flaws though, where we draft guys that are more surefire (Colten Teubert) over a boom or bust type (Tyler Myers).
And 2007 we drafted a boom or bust type Hickey over surefire Alzner. That pick still makes me angry. Doughty-Alzner >>>> Doughty-Scuderi.
Constantin Braun as well. Also he acquired Johan Franson, who was considered a prospect at the time, in the Norstrom trade.
I really think the days of DL taking older prospects in the draft are over. I honestly think Campbell, Azevedo, Kolomatis and Pelech were drafted mostly to build depth in Manchester to fill out the roster there and avoid the need to sign veteran players to fill space in Manch.
The Kings have gotten to a point where they are starting to have log jams not only in LA but in Manch as well. They already have Muzzin, Hickey, Mullen, Campbell, N.D., Kolomatis who will probably be around next year. LA's d is pretty much set with 7 D in Mitchell, DD, Scuderi, VV, Greene, A-Mart, and Drewiske for at least another year. Then you have Gravel, Forbort, and Roach who will be moving to Manchester in next few years... Forward is getting to a similiar situation as well.
I'm ok with targeting and drafting 4-5 guys this year in the later rounds for this year as long as they are the guys that DL wants. I really have a lot of faith in the Kings scouting staff in the later rounds given their recent track record of finding guys like Nolan, Loki, Vey, Kozun, Gravel, Kitsyn, Dowd, and Schumacher, in the mid to late rounds. That's a rather surprising amount of upside in that list all things considered so I'm ok with having no picks until the 4th round this year...
Andrew Campbell has been on the Kings radar, and one of the last prospects cut the last two years. I think they are grooming him to take over for one of Scuderi/Mitchell/Greene when they decide to leave or their play dips.
Defensive defenseman, especially one that was as raw as Campbell, are projects to develop. All things considered, I think Campbell might be the best shut down guy that Manchester has this year.
I don't think it would be surprising if one of the shut down guys left, you'd see either Drewiske step into that role and Campbell into Drewiskes spot.
And 2007 we drafted a boom or bust type Hickey over surefire Alzner. That pick still makes me angry. Doughty-Alzner >>>> Doughty-Scuderi.
Uh have you watched Alzner play? He's average at best. Average. The only reason he was able to play with Washington last season was because they have **** for depth on defense. If Alzner played here, in our talent pool, he wouldn't be on the team yet. MAYBE he'd be in the role of Whiskey.
But certainly Voynov - Martinez > Alzner, every shut down guy we have > Alzner.
Hickey has a WAY greater upside, and we haven't even seen him yet. People act like that 07 top 5 draft had Messier, Gretzky and Bourque in it, and we selected Aki Berg.
That draft was awful. Outside of Patrick Kane, Couture, and maybe Pacioretty no one in that draft has been that great. Shattenkirk? Blum? Ian Cole? Eller? Voracek?
People cry about that pick because it was a Top 5 pick. But in reality they didn't miss much in that draft. And I think thats why they went with Hickey, he may have been boom or bust and he very well may be a bust, but atleast he had the "boom" potential.
There isn't any reason to complain right now because the back end is playing great, but if you insist, complain about the Kings drafting a **** for brains likely career minor league player year later over a bunch of young stud d-man. Imagine a #1 PP unit of Doughty and Karlsson.
And 2007 we drafted a boom or bust type Hickey over surefire Alzner. That pick still makes me angry. Doughty-Alzner >>>> Doughty-Scuderi.
Meh on Alzner. He's better than Hickey for sure, but are we really missing out on much by not having him?
If you want to complain about a D-man from that draft we didn't get, I'd look at McDonagh. Dude plays 25 minutes a night at times and is a rock in New York. That said, to further what Herby and Jaykings said, the 2007 draft sucked in terms of high end talent and Hickey was expected to go between 15 and 25. DL took him off the board, but it wasn't a Jesse Niintimaki or Adrian Foster type selection. That said, I agree with you, Hickey was a boom or bust pick that didn't jive with what DL usually does.
People cry about that pick because it was a Top 5 pick. But in reality they didn't miss much in that draft. And I think thats why they went with Hickey, he may have been boom or bust and he very well may be a bust, but atleast he had the "boom" potential.
There isn't any reason to complain right now because the back end is playing great, but if you insist, complain about the Kings drafting a **** for brains likely career minor league player year later over a bunch of young stud d-man. Imagine a #1 PP unit of Doughty and Karlsson.
or Doughty and Myers
or Doughty and Del Zotto
Yea that Teubert selection never made any sense to me. Hickey did. That didn't.
Yea that Teubert selection never made any sense to me. Hickey did. That didn't.
Actually it made more sense to me than Doughty. DL is all about character and surefire picks, especially early on. I figured we'd go with Bognosian before Doughty.
Teubert oozes character and was expected to be like a Matt Greene/Steve Staios type. 20-minutes a game, panelty killer who clears the front of the net. Totally a DL type of guy.
And 2007 we drafted a boom or bust type Hickey over surefire Alzner. That pick still makes me angry. Doughty-Alzner >>>> Doughty-Scuderi.
At that point in June 2007, the Kings didn't have Doughty, Voynov, Muzzin, etc.
Writer Gare Joyce wrote a book about the 2006 and 2007 Drafts. He had a good section about the Kings pick/Alzner. Off the top of my head, Joyce said something along the lines of "most rate Alzner the best defenseman available, but would feel unenthusiastic about taking him."
If the Kings had Alzner today, they realistically might not have Willie Mitchell since Scuderi signed first.
Puck movers are expensive. stay at home defenders are relatively cheap and easily to acquire. We got two top notch stay-at-homes on the market for a reason.
I don't know much about Alzner, but I imagine he's more stay-at-home. If DL ranked both completely equal, Hickey gamble would have been worth it.
Uh have you watched Alzner play? He's average at best. Average. The only reason he was able to play with Washington last season was because they have **** for depth on defense. If Alzner played here, in our talent pool, he wouldn't be on the team yet. MAYBE he'd be in the role of Whiskey.
But certainly Voynov - Martinez > Alzner, every shut down guy we have > Alzner.
Hickey has a WAY greater upside, and we haven't even seen him yet. People act like that 07 top 5 draft had Messier, Gretzky and Bourque in it, and we selected Aki Berg.
That draft was awful. Outside of Patrick Kane, Couture, and maybe Pacioretty no one in that draft has been that great. Shattenkirk? Blum? Ian Cole? Eller? Voracek?
If Hickey even turns into a 3rd pairing Dman, or we can flip him for something worth a **** I will consider that a good pick.
This ^
Alsner is a turnover machine who puts himself out of position due to his slow decision making. Hickey will be a PMD d man in the NHL, maybe not with us but he will at least be as valuable as Alzner is to whatever team he plays for once he gets there.
Alzner is a fringe NHLer at this point and really only plays because his team doesn't have anyone else to fill his role.
Oh and Hickey impressed me allot with the way he has picked up his game this season. He is steadily becoming a very good pmd with 4/6 capabilities.
