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2012 NHL Entry Draft Talk 13.0

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Old
05-11-2012, 01:59 PM
  #351
googlymoogly
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
I don't see Grigorenko as a #1 center. Takes too many nights/shifts off and doesn't work well in traffic, which is what you get as a #1 center facing top lines.
He has the skill of a number 1 center. Get him a tough power forward to open up space. I prefer Gally though.

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05-11-2012, 02:10 PM
  #352
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He has the skill of a number 1 center. Get him a tough power forward to open up space. I prefer Gally though.
With 2 power forwards, Desharnais is a #1 center, so why waste a #3 pick on something you already have? I'm sure Plekanec would go also back to #1 level of production if he had Pacioretty and Cole on his wings.


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05-11-2012, 02:13 PM
  #353
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It's a big risk though - what if you're wrong? The Kings loved Hickey in '07 but (from what I heard) couldn't find a dance partner to trade down to get him. So they said to hell with it and picked him at #4 anyway. Not only did they miss out on Alzner, McDonagh, Shattenkirk, etc, they didn't even get any assets to offset picking a bust so high in the draft.
Exactly. It's unfortunate that Washington has 11th and 16th overall. If they had say 7-8th and 20-25th overall I'd strongly consider trading the 3rd overall if we can get TT and another solid prospect at the 2nd 1st rounder.

Last time we had 2 1st rounders? McDonagh and Pacioretty.

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05-11-2012, 02:14 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
The only thing I'm offended by is your flawed reasoning.

The reason the Habs picked Fischer over Giroux was because of an apparent lack of size and defencemen in the organization..the reason Matt Higgins was selected over Danny Briere was because of a supposed lack of size in the organization...the reason Brent Bilodeau and Lindsay Vallis were selected ahead of much more skilled players was a supposed lack of size in the organization. The reason Marcel Hossa was selected was because of an apparent lack of size at center.....

That is perhaps the silliest reason not to pick the more skilled player in a draft...because just like Steve Yezerman or Joe Sakic TT is "only" 5-11. Go back to the Sakic draft and look at all the taller players taken ahead of him who couldn't carry his jockstrap.

TT is 17-years old is 5-11 and weighs 165 pounds - he's the youngest player in the draft. In his draft year Claude Giroux was 5-10 and about 150 pounds. He obviously did some more growing, and I would suspect TT isn't done growing yet either, even if it's muscle wise as opposed to height wise. It wouldn't surprise me if 5 years from now he's 6-0 and 180-190 pounds.

You draft a player with the thought that he will be a regular contributor in five years. DD Gionta and Plekanec all may have left the organization five years from now...who's to say the club might not be one of the largest in the league by then?

Pick the most skilled player with the most upside...period. The one thing this club, and pretty much every club for that matter, lacks is first-line forwards and even more specifically a first-line center. TT is one of the very few in this draft with that potential. He will be highly considered by the club.
There's no possible way you have a gauge on Tervainen's character? A year ago Grigorenko looked like a star after the U18 before he came to North America. Now we find out more. Kostitsyn was another drafted on his great skill alone. Later on we find out he had no win to win. Samansov had those same scouting reports on him at 17 years old.

Not accurate to compare TT to Sakic or Kane as knew they could take the physical game ans had judge of their character

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05-11-2012, 02:18 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
There's no possible way you have a gauge on Tervainen's character? A year ago Grigorenko looked like a star after the U18 before he came to North America. Now we find out more. Kostitsyn was another drafted on his great skill alone. Later on we find out he had no win to win. Samansov had those same scouting reports on him at 17 years old.

Not accurate to compare TT to Sakic or Kane as knew they could take the physical game ans had judge of their character
Fins are usually solid work ethic and character.

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05-11-2012, 02:24 PM
  #356
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I don't know a lot about TT and even if stats don't mean everything, his production seems weak if we compare him with Granlund at the same age.

Is anybody able to make a decent comparaison between both of them?

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05-11-2012, 02:27 PM
  #357
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In regards to TT, anyone else read this article about late season jumps in rankings?

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...sional-scouts/

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05-11-2012, 02:30 PM
  #358
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Considering what Grigs did at the U18 last year, I really don't see how anyone can have TT above him...

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05-11-2012, 02:34 PM
  #359
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Considering what Grigs did at the U18 last year, I really don't see how anyone can have TT above him...
Well.......................that would be because the team that drafts him will be doing so with hopes of him playing in the NHL.

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05-11-2012, 02:36 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
In regards to TT, anyone else read this article about late season jumps in rankings?

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...sional-scouts/
Very good article, something I've wondered about too. It seems like every year there's a guy ranked in the late first round most of the year who rockets into the top-10 at the end of the season. Niederreiter was the example in the article but also Zibanejad, Skinner and Glennie in recent years. I think groupthink definitely plays a role in it - it seems unlikely that suddenly and independently all the different scouting services would decide to move a guy up 15-20 spots in their rankings.

I still like TT and all, but not where we're picking...and I wouldn't trade down to get him unless it was a really irresistable package.

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05-11-2012, 02:39 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
In regards to TT, anyone else read this article about late season jumps in rankings?

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...sional-scouts/
Do we really need a 5'10- 160 pound guy ?

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05-11-2012, 02:41 PM
  #362
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Do we really need a 5'10- 160 pound guy ?
People probably said that when we picked Fischer over Giroux too. Can't believe people still try to "scout" using heights and weights...

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05-11-2012, 02:44 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
In regards to TT, anyone else read this article about late season jumps in rankings?

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...sional-scouts/
This writer is clearly a bonified idiot.

He doesn't take into consideration a young players progression from the start of the season until the end. He tries to draw a comparison between Niederreiter and Teravainen event though TT has improved and culminated with a dominant performance at the U-18. Meanwhile by his own acknowledgement NN slowed down considerably in the latter part of his draft year.

The stupidity of some people never ceases to amaze me.

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05-11-2012, 02:44 PM
  #364
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Do we really need a 5'10- 160 pound guy ?
So you would have passed on Kane and RNH?

Yakupov isn't bigger, just heavier. Teravainen will be capable of adding weight.

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05-11-2012, 02:50 PM
  #365
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So you would have passed on Kane and RNH?

Yakupov isn't bigger, just heavier. Teravainen will be capable of adding weight.
So, for you, that guy is third pick worth ?

RHN and Kane were clearly top guns, as well as Yakupov. Not TT.

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05-11-2012, 02:50 PM
  #366
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
This writer is clearly a bonified idiot.

He doesn't take into consideration a young players progression from the start of the season until the end. He tries to draw a comparison between Niederreiter and Teravainen event though TT has improved and culminated with a dominant performance at the U-18. Meanwhile by his own acknowledgement NN slowed down considerably in the latter part of his draft year.

The stupidity of some people never ceases to amaze me.
Are you sure you read the article? The fact that TT dominated at the U-18's is exactly why his high ranking should be called into question. TT played 8 games where he blew the scouts away - does it erase the 70+ games he played during the year where the scouts saw fit to consistently rank him in the 15-20 slot? Did he really improve his game that dramatically, or did he just play the 8 best games of hockey of his life at the right time? Those are the questions that are being raised, and they're certainly valid ones.

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05-11-2012, 02:51 PM
  #367
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I think we should draft solely based on height with the tie-breaker being weight. So start at some 6'7" dude and work our way down . . .

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05-11-2012, 02:52 PM
  #368
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So you would have passed on Kane and RNH?

Yakupov isn't bigger, just heavier. Teravainen will be capable of adding weight.
Yakupov is alot stronger than Teravainen and I don't see Teravainen closing that gap much.

For the record........heavier counts as bigger.

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05-11-2012, 02:53 PM
  #369
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
This writer is clearly a bonified idiot.

He doesn't take into consideration a young players progression from the start of the season until the end. He tries to draw a comparison between Niederreiter and Teravainen event though TT has improved and culminated with a dominant performance at the U-18. Meanwhile by his own acknowledgement NN slowed down considerably in the latter part of his draft year.

The stupidity of some people never ceases to amaze me.
Doesn't this add to his argument? He suggested a good WJC made NN #5 but poor play for extended periods of time did not deminish his stock like it should've.

The debate is whether there is too much stock put in a small sample space. I think NN fits that category but you're right there are different scenarios where a player does genuinely improve. That's not what he brought up though. He mentioned jumping 20 spots in 1st round because of a short tournament.

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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Are you sure you read the article? The fact that TT dominated at the U-18's is exactly why his high ranking should be called into question. TT played 8 games where he blew the scouts away - does it erase the 70+ games he played during the year where the scouts saw fit to consistently rank him in the 15-20 slot? Did he really improve his game that dramatically, or did he just play the 8 best games of hockey of his life at the right time? Those are the questions that are being raised, and they're certainly valid ones.
Glad you get it. It is legit cause for concern. Fact is, TT has been on the radar as a 'top prospect' much less than grigorenko and others. It happens every year, guys at top end of the draft get analyzed so much they suddenly now have 1000 flaws but the late season push like TT now looks like a potential steal. Call me crazy but seems like TT just hasn't been analyzed like the others.

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05-11-2012, 02:56 PM
  #370
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Doesn't this add to his argument? He suggested a good WJC made NN #5 but poor play for extended periods of time did not deminish his stock like it should've.

The debate is whether there is too much stock put in a small sample space. I think NN fits that category but you're right there are different scenarios where a player does genuinely improve. That's not what he brought up though. He mentioned jumping 20 spots in 1st round because of a short tournament.
It's also about potential not production.

Otherwise scouts wouldn't go to games and just draft from stats in hockeydb.com.

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05-11-2012, 02:58 PM
  #371
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Yakupov is alot stronger than Teravainen and I don't see Teravainen closing that gap much.

For the record........heavier counts as bigger.
You can't draft a player expecting them to grow an inch or two. You can, however, draft a player and expect them to gain weight and muscle mass. So while it's simply semantics to say heavier is bigger, just because one is heavier than the other today doesn't mean anything.

You're also discounting the fact Teravainen is almost a full year younger than Yakupov. A full year is a huge difference for teens.

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05-11-2012, 03:01 PM
  #372
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A full year is a huge difference for teens.
indeed, could mean the difference between going to jail or not . . .

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05-11-2012, 03:01 PM
  #373
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It's also about potential not production.

Otherwise scouts wouldn't go to games and just draft from stats in hockeydb.com.
Yes, but is it not akin to someone playing slots? I won once so I can win again! It's possible. Yeah, NN and others played good in short tournaments so suddenly they have 'potential' and shown 'flashes' but that's pretty short sighted and the time of logic gamblers use. Just because a player played excellent once doesn't mean they can do it consistently. I think the article has a legit point. 5-10 games can erase 70 games? Why? If a player plays phenomenal during a 10 game stretch but is average for 70 others that means he's excellent 12.5% of the time. Is that really a player you want in top 5? these are projects.

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05-11-2012, 03:02 PM
  #374
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You can't draft a player expecting them to grow an inch or two. You can, however, draft a player and expect them to gain weight and muscle mass. So while it's simply semantics to say heavier is bigger, just because one is heavier than the other today doesn't mean anything.

You're also discounting the fact Teravainen is almost a full year younger than Yakupov. A full year is a huge difference for teens.
As Grant said drafting for size in the 1st round is ridiculous.

It's a factor but skill should be #1 and character/work ethic #2.

In terms of size you have to look at the family, if the father is 5'6" and the mother 5'2" then don't expect a growth spurt...but if it's 6'5" and 5'11" then the 5'10" 17 year old might get to 6'.

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05-11-2012, 03:07 PM
  #375
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Yes, but is it not akin to someone playing slots? I won once so I can win again! It's possible. Yeah, NN and others played good in short tournaments so suddenly they have 'potential' and shown 'flashes' but that's pretty short sighted and the time of logic gamblers use. Just because a player played excellent once doesn't mean they can do it consistently. I think the article has a legit point. 5-10 games can erase 70 games? Why? If a player plays phenomenal during a 10 game stretch but is average for 70 others that means he's excellent 12.5% of the time. Is that really a player you want in top 5? these are projects.
Nino was a small reach. I think maybe Snow saw him at the WJHC and he was in the 7-11 range on his head scout's list and Snow pushed to take him at #5. Guys they shouldn't have passed on...Fowler Gormley Skinner maybe Granlund and Connolly. IMHO McIllrath is a worst pick at #10 than Nino at #5.

If he ends up a bust it won't be because of where he was drafted, more about rushing him to NHL at 19 to play 4th line and press box.

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