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ATD2012 Red Fisher Conference Finals: Pittsburgh Keystones vs. Inglewood Jacks

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Old
05-11-2012, 08:00 AM
  #51
arrbez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Is there a case that Jimmy Watson is actually Inglewood's 6th best defenseman? That's partly a criticism of Watson, but it's also an acknowledgement that Inglewood probably has the best bottom pairing in the draft.
That could be I guess, depending how you want to look at it. I'd definitely rather start a pairing off with Lloyd Cook than Jimmy Watson. But I think Watson's game is the perfect compliment for Boucher. There are plenty of stay-at-home defensemen out there, but I think Watson has a slightly rarer skillset in that he was quite mobile on top of being able to handle the physical game, and he played a very mistake-free style. He stayed out of the box as well, which is nice.

I'm very happy with my D this time around. I think it's strong at both ends of the ice, has great depth, and really has nobody that needs to be sheltered or hidden on a regular basis.

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05-12-2012, 05:23 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Does either team have a plan to stop the other team's big gun?

I think Cecil Hart and Inglewood wants to goad Pittsburgh into a run-and-gun speed game. Not only is the Watson-Gretzky-Kurri-Leetch-Johnson unit terrifying all over the ice in transition, but I think Inglewood's second line is better suited for a speed game than Pittsburgh's second line.

I think Hap Day wants Pittsburgh to slow things down a little.
Pittsburgh's second line excels in a slower paced cycling game, and Inglewood's D could be vulnerable against the cycle. I think Pittsburgh's first line could play it either way, but they will be overwhelmed if they try to trade chances with Gretzky. Is this the series that forces Bobby Orr to play more conservatively, or do you just let him go?
As always I'll be looking to match Orr's unit with my opponent's top unit. I imagine Orr will have to play it a bit safer against Gretzky, but his superlative skating should help keep him involved offensively. I'll be leaning on Richard as well to help Orr with this. For Bobby's defense being an afterthought, I feel pretty comfortable in his ability to matchup here.

Furthermore, will Gretzky be Gretzky when he's dealing with the only other player to have a peak that arguably surpasses his own? Probably, but he'll have a much harder time establishing the seemingly constant possession that negated his defensive concerns up against Bobby Orr.

To support this, I'm leaning on the numbers Overpass considered during the first round of 2009's HoH Top 100 project.
Quote:
Even-strength
Player Years Seasons $ESGF $ESGA $ESGF/G $ESGA/G R-ON R-OFF EV+/- AdjEV+/-
Bobby Orr 1969-75 6.61 1008 455 1.86 0.84 2.22 1.10 553 505
Wayne Gretzky 1982-88 6.71 1088 572 1.98 1.04 1.90 1.18 402 305
$ESGF - on-ice even-strength goals for, adjusted for scoring level.
$ESGA - on-ice even-strength goals against, adjusted for scoring level.
R-ON - on-ice goal ratio (ESGF/ESGA)
R-OFF - off-ice goal ratio of player's team (ESGF/ESGA)
EV+/- - even-strength plus-minus, adjusted for scoring level
AdjEV+/- - even-strength plus-minus, adjusted for scoring level and team strength

While Gretzky is the greatest even-strength scorer of all time, Orr exerted a greater influence on the game. Both had an amazing seven year run, transforming good teams into all-time great teams. However, Orr has a significant edge in goal prevention. Also, Gretzky's teams were a little better without him than Orr's were without him.

Quality of Competition
I don't think the NHL was particularly strong when Orr or Gretzky starred (early 70s and early 80s), but it was certainly weaker in Orr's time, due to the WHA draining talent, the fact that Europeans hadn't come over as much, and expansion still causing the league to be imbalanced. In fact, depending on how heavily you weight this, it could give Gretzky the edge in all other categories.

Playoffs
I won't go in-depth here - most will agree that while Orr was excellent, Gretzky was probably better.

Overall I see Orr as being better in their primes at even-strength and on special teams, with the caveat that quality of competition narrows the gap. Gretzky's edge in the playoffs and in post-prime play narrows it further, but I still have Orr first - simply the greatest player ever, IMO.
As this particular post is most concerned with how Gretzky and Orr match up ES-wise, I separated Overpass's conclusions on their special teams production.

Quote:
Power Play

Top power play scorers of 1969-1975
(assists estimated using on-ice data)
Rk Player PPP %Orr
1 Phil Esposito 336 117%
2 Bobby Orr 287 100%
3 Johnny Bucyk 240 84%
4 Jean Ratelle 184 64%
5 Stan Mikita 184 64%
6 Yvan Cournoyer 176 61%
6 Rod Gilbert 176 61%

The top non-Boston players of this time scored 60-65% of Orr's points on the PP. Orr was outscored by his teammate Esposito on the power play. However, I think that Orr was the more important player on the power play, and I think most would agree.

Top power play scorers of 1982-1988 (assist data from Hockey Summary Project)
Rk Player PPP %Gretz
1 Wayne Gretzky 347 100%
2 Denis Savard 298 86%
3 Peter Stastny 286 82%
4 Marcel Dionne 269 78%
5 Dale Hawerchuk 265 76%
6 Paul Coffey 265 76%
7 Bernie Federko 245 71%
Gretzky was less dominant on the PP than Orr (and Lemieux), as his top contemporaries scored 70-90% of his totals on the PP.

Penalty Kill
Orr's Bruins and Gretzky's Oilers were both among the best at this, by being average to above average at goal prevention and being extremely dangerous on the counterattack. I'd put Orr ahead here also based on reputation and the few games I've seen.

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05-12-2012, 10:07 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post

Furthermore, will Gretzky be Gretzky when he's dealing with the only other player to have a peak that arguably surpasses his own?
In the playoffs I'm pretty confident no one surpasses Gretzky.

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05-13-2012, 01:23 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
In the playoffs I'm pretty confident no one surpasses Gretzky.
Me too.

Totals Per Game
Rk Player From To Tm Lg Pos GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH S S% TOI G A PTS S
1 Wayne Gretzky* 1980 1997 TOT NHL C 208 122 260 382 67 66 77 34 11 549 17.5 0.59 1.25 1.84 3.14
2 Mario Lemieux* 1989 2001 PIT NHL C/LW 107 76 96 172 20 87 40 29 7 402 18.9 443 0.71 0.90 1.61 3.76

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05-13-2012, 03:10 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by God Made Me View Post
Me too.

Totals Per Game
Rk Player From To Tm Lg Pos GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH S S% TOI G A PTS S
1 Wayne Gretzky* 1980 1997 TOT NHL C 208 122 260 382 67 66 77 34 11 549 17.5 0.59 1.25 1.84 3.14
2 Mario Lemieux* 1989 2001 PIT NHL C/LW 107 76 96 172 20 87 40 29 7 402 18.9 443 0.71 0.90 1.61 3.76
Yeah in a career ATD sense, over that span of games.. Gretzky is mind-boggling.

I still think Gilmour outplayed him in their particular 93 series though.

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05-14-2012, 09:13 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Yeah in a career ATD sense, over that span of games.. Gretzky is mind-boggling.

I still think Gilmour outplayed him in their particular 93 series though.
that's because he did.

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05-14-2012, 11:09 AM
  #57
Rob Scuderi
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Overpass's numbers
  Games Played Adjusted ESP per season R-on R-off Adjusted PPP per season PP usage Team PP Rating PK usage Team PK rating
Bobby Orr 596 75 2.16 1.09 55 96% 1.52 63% .76
Brian Leetch 1205 36 1.06 .97 39 87% 1.12 50% 1.03
Rob Blake 1270 30 1.03 1.03 26 66% 1.04 50% 1.00
Jimmy Watson 612 20 1.67 1.61 3 9% 1.29 41% .76
Kimmo Timmonen 894 21 1.06 .95 27 75% .99 37% .88
Jerry Korab 975 23 1.06 1.27 14 42% 1.11 43% .84

All-Star Voting
Bobby Orr: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4
Brian Leetch: 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 11, T14
Rob Blake: 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 8, T11
Gus Mortson: 1, 7, 9, T9, 10
Jimmy Watson: 6, T9, 10, T12, T14
Kimmo Timmonen: 5, 14, 18
Jerry Korab: 10

Moose Johnson
x8 PCHA 1st AST
x1 PCHA 2nd AST
x2 ECAHA 2nd AST

Georges Boucher
Hart: T10, 11

Lionel Hitchman:
Hart: 2
AST: 5

Lloyd Cook:
x3 PCHA 1st
x3 PCHA 2nd

Overall Inglewood has the better group, with a few differences going my way. The most obvious being Orr, and I also think that Hitchman is a stronger #4 than Watson. I think Moose gets an edge over Blake, and the same with Boucher over Mortson for our #3s. Overall, Inglewood's bottom pair is better than my own as well. Cook is a strong #5 and Korab certainly trails. It's difficult to compare Cameron, but I think Timmonen is pretty ideal for a #6 whereas Cameron's standing depends on how much stock you put into his era.

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05-16-2012, 10:51 AM
  #58
seventieslord
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In game 5 OT, your winner is the Inglewood Jacks.

The BBS wrecking ball has finally been stopped.

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05-16-2012, 02:44 PM
  #59
Rob Scuderi
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Good series Arrbez, I'm glad I could make it this far and knew this would be a tough one. Go get Gretzky that championship

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05-16-2012, 02:47 PM
  #60
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we got denied an Orr/Gretzky final.

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05-16-2012, 04:48 PM
  #61
TheDevilMadeMe
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BBS's first run at this was remarkably similar to my first run.

Get the first overall pick, draft Bobby Orr.
Finish 2nd in the division in the regular season to a long-time GM who usually does well (in my case it was arrbez).
Beat the top seed to win the division in the playoffs. Lose in the Conference Finals.

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Old
05-16-2012, 04:58 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Good series Arrbez, I'm glad I could make it this far and knew this would be a tough one. Go get Gretzky that championship
Yeah, good series man! Once time travel is invented, we'll have to do Gretzky vs. Orr for reals.

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