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Habs Have Interest in Trading for Evander Kane (e3)

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Old
05-12-2012, 11:00 PM
  #201
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I'm sure they have an interest but they're not getting him. Why would Winnipeg trade him?

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05-13-2012, 02:11 AM
  #202
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Originally Posted by Wpgpage View Post
So instead of actually looking at the links I provided you and breaking out your calculator (dear god that would be hard) you just blindly made some stuff up, well done a applaud you for the effort you put into that. OK I will do it for you:

Kane 3 Seasons 213 GP 63G 63A 126 PTS 16:33 ATOI
Kessel 3 Seasons 222 GP 66G 60A 126 PTS 15:18 ATOI

I'm sorry your totally right they are nothing alike at all, if you want to get into advanced stats they also match up quite well. Not to mention they play basically the exact same game, although Kane has the advantage of more grit while Kessel is better at using his team mates. As for where the picks land I think most figured the Leafs pick would be at least a top 10 2nd overall was a nice bonus but that's all inconsequential MTL is a much much better team today than the Leafs were in 2009 it is not a huge stretch to see MTL making the play offs next year so the Jets could be looking at 3rd overall and 20th.

As for Kuli you can't use playoff numbers that's the worst use of small sample size ever, for a guy that didn't look at Kane and Kessels stats at all you are pretty quick to jump on the stats that benefit your argument. Players will have big years, thats why they are called "big years" and that's why we have stats to look and identify when a player is getting lucky and will not repeat those numbers the next season.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/lead...ct_career.html
That's a list of the top 250 career SH%'s notice how almost all of the player with %'s better than 15% are not from the modern era? Now notice that the current players on this list are mostly elite talents. Of the 58 players who shot over 17% only 4 are active currently one is Steven Stamkos. Can you honestly say that you think that Kuli will be the 5th active player to do this? Considering his career is 12.6% I think this is rather unlikely no?
I know Kessel's stats. Kessel also had 9 goals and 15 points in 15 playoff games by that point, and was coming off of a better year when traded.

Kulemin 3 Seasons 233 GP 61G 63A 124 PTS

So when I say Kulemin is as close to Kane as Kane is to Kessel, I am right. And even if Kane is as good as Kessel was back then, the price offered is more than or at least equal to the offer given for Kessel.

Despite what your delusions may have you remember, most if not all hockey analysts believed that the Leafs would be fighting for a playoff spot for 2010 and 2011, and Boston's GM has come out and said that they did not expect the picks to be as high as they were. Nobody placed them top-5.

So even if you and the Boston GM were one of the few that thought we weren't going to make the playoffs, that is still only saying that the picks were expected to be a top-15 pick, in the 5-14 range. Taking the average pick that it would be, you would need more than two 9th overall picks to move up to 3rd. In reality, the offer made for Kessel wasn't worth much less than a single 3rd overall pick.

Not only that, the offer includes another first round draft pick, that if we are assuming that Toronto was going to be a top-14 pick, we must assume the team that did worse than Toronto did would also have a top-14 pick.

So you are *laughing* at an offer that is greater than what a player in a similar situation that is better or at least equal to Kane received. That's logical, how?

Even without using playoff numbers, there were 11 people with a better shooting percentage than 17.1% this year.

I like how you post a list, noting the only real elite talent on the list to support your claims. Do I think Kulemin can be among generational talents like Tanguay, Brunette, Parish, Holmstrom and Morrow? Lol, yeah, I think it is within the realm of possibility.

What this goes to show is that shooting percentage doesn't mean much. Guess what! There is a way to magically score more goals while lowering your shooting percentage! It's called... shh, don't tell anybody... shooting more.



Something Kulemin does exceptionally well, and something that Kulemin didn't do much of for most of last year (when he had an abnormally low shooting percentage as well (261st out of 379 players)).

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05-13-2012, 07:59 AM
  #203
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Hmmm...the deconstruction of this "rumor?"

Two Canadian teams both of whom have lots of posters on that site.

Make a vague comment that is clearly true of every team.

Post as a rumor.

Stir the pot.

Drive traffic with no Canadian team in the playoffs.

Win for site.

Loss for "journalism" even with the low standards of blogging.

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Old
05-13-2012, 09:14 AM
  #204
atl thrasher344
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Originally Posted by JKsilverstick View Post
So when I say Kulemin is as close to Kane as Kane is to Kessel, I am right.
Um, how?

Kane - ~.29 GPG, ~.29 APG, ~.59 PPG

Kessel - ~.29 GPG, .27 APG, ~.56 PPG

Kulemin- ~.26 GPG, .27 APG, ~.53 PPG

That's like saying that a 6 is as close to an 8 as an 8 is to 10, so 6 is about the same value as 8. In fact, Kane has been a little bit better than Kessel was, even with worse linemates, so Kulemin's production is closer to Kessel's, not Kane's.

This thread is all over the place.


Last edited by atl thrasher344: 05-13-2012 at 09:28 AM.
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05-13-2012, 11:19 AM
  #205
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Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
Um, how?

Kane - ~.29 GPG, ~.29 APG, ~.59 PPG

Kessel - ~.29 GPG, .27 APG, ~.56 PPG

Kulemin- ~.26 GPG, .27 APG, ~.53 PPG

That's like saying that a 6 is as close to an 8 as an 8 is to 10, so 6 is about the same value as 8. In fact, Kane has been a little bit better than Kessel was, even with worse linemates, so Kulemin's production is closer to Kessel's, not Kane's.

This thread is all over the place.
With Kane getting 16:33 of ice time per game over that span.
With Kessel getting 15:17 of ice time per game over that span.
With Kulemin getting 15:54 of ice time per game over that span.

With Kessel and Kane having similar quality line-mates over that time, both significantly better than Kulemin's.

Kessel was coming off of a better season after those 3 years, and had already proven himself PPG (0.6 GPG) in 15 playoff games. Kulemin is the best defensively of the three.

In conclusion, all pretty similar to each other after their first 3 years.

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05-13-2012, 11:49 AM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKsilverstick View Post
With Kane getting 16:33 of ice time per game over that span.
With Kessel getting 15:17 of ice time per game over that span.
With Kulemin getting 15:54 of ice time per game over that span.

With Kessel and Kane having similar quality line-mates over that time, both significantly better than Kulemin's.

Kessel was coming off of a better season after those 3 years, and had already proven himself PPG (0.6 GPG) in 15 playoff games. Kulemin is the best defensively of the three.

In conclusion, all pretty similar to each other after their first 3 years.
Playoffs are irrelevant. Not Kanes fault he was not in the playoffs.

You say Kane and Kessel had similar linemates. Do you have a list of Kessel's?

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05-13-2012, 12:49 PM
  #207
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So what your saying is that sine there are currently 5 active players that shot above 17% Kuli can be the 6th. Out of the active players on NHL rosters 20*30= 600 players or so there are currently 5 so that's what 0.83% of active players..... yes you are right there is a chance that Kuli can shot CONSISTENTLY over 17% but given that less than 1% of active NHL players do that is there really that much to get excited about? You are completely right he could all of a sudden start firing an additional 75 shots at the net, but the guys that all of a sudden start doing that at the end of their goal scoring prime are almost completely non existent. Again you are identifying the statistical anomalies and assuming that Kuli will be one of them, this is generally not the best idea when trying to evaluate a player they are called anomalies for a reason.

Kuli does have comparable stats through 3 years but given the lucky year he had in 2010/11 and the fact that those where his age 22,23,24 seasons there is a clear difference between the 2 players. They are not comparable not at all.

Finally you still fail to understand the principle of leverage and comparable's in a deal, the Jets are a club that is 4 years into a 6-8 year rebuilding process, they have no need to trade Kane no need at all. The fact that the Leafs picks were projected to be worse holds no weight what so ever the price is set if Phil Kessel got a 2nd and 8th the Jets can now demand that price as that is the comparable deal. Would the Canadians pay that price? I would hope not for their sake but the Jets have no reason to demand anything less. Put yourself in the Jets GM shoes and ask yourself if you had a player with 4 years of team control, no cap issues and no need to take a step back in the rebuild why would you ever trade him for less than what the last player in almost the exact same situation got? You would be undermining your negotiating position in any further trade talks by taking a lesser deal in this situation. Again this trade is ridiculous because the Kessel trade has failed so miserably that no GM will ever pay the price again, and no current GM has any reason to ask for less than the return that Kessel brought. Perhaps in the future the landscape will change and the price for elite young goal scores with ether lower, or opposing GM's will be willing to pay the higher price but at this point I can't see it.

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05-13-2012, 12:56 PM
  #208
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Im sure every team has an intrest in him , who wouldnt ! But I think theres a zero chance Winipeg moves him .It would have to be an offer Chevy feels were fleecing the other team.

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05-13-2012, 01:02 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Great One View Post
When did I say Hall, RNH or Kane were worth Crosby or Stamkos? The only reason I even mentioned their names is because I was responding to a comment that I thought suggested that a number 1 dman is more valuable than a top line forward. So I'm not even sure why you even compared Hall or RNH to these guys.

You say Subban is valuable enough to get a forward like Hall or RNH depending on the team's needs and assets. Well it's no secret that there is nothing the Oilers need more than a number 1 dman and are overflowing with talented forwards but I can guarantee you that Subban alone is not even remotely close to being enough to land either of those guys.

Also, Dude, you have Chicago on the list? I really hope this is a typo because if you really believe Subban is better than Keith or Seabrook than I feel guilty for debating with someone who know so little about hockey. I'd also take Enstrom and Bogosian before him as well not to mention Giordano, Bouwmeester, Whitney when healthy and even Phaneuf. Oh and just take a look at that list again for a moment. Not sure if you noticed but there's a reason why 8 of 11 teams never even made the playoffs and much of it has to do with having crappy defence.
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Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
And you say you know hockey?

Really ,Whitney,J-Bow,... and he claims you don't know hockey.
I'm with you on this one poetryinmotion.

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05-13-2012, 01:07 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by viper0220 View Post
IF they were intrested it would take this years 1st round pick and the 1st round pick in 2013.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklun...ane-e3/1/44358
Just love this thread title, might as well add so are 28 other teams.

Winnipeg doesn't move him for Montreal's two 1st rounders either not a chance.

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05-13-2012, 01:07 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
Playoffs are irrelevant. Not Kanes fault he was not in the playoffs.

You say Kane and Kessel had similar linemates. Do you have a list of Kessel's?
Playoffs are most definitely NOT irrelevant. It is not Kane's fault that he was not in the playoffs, but a player who has shown exceptional production in the playoffs is worth more than one that has not.

Go find Kessel's line-mates yourself if you don't believe me.

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05-13-2012, 01:14 PM
  #212
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On Kane yes he's a stud but as a Habs fan i just want to go to the draft and take our chances on one of Grigs or Gal and hope the pick turns out to be the top line center we are looking for and not give any of our assets away.
Don't blame the Jets fans for not wanting to trade Kane.

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05-13-2012, 01:21 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by JKsilverstick View Post
Go find Kessel's line-mates yourself if you don't believe me.
Translation: I just pulled the comment about Kane and Kessel having comparable linemates out of my a*s, infact I have no idea who Kessel's linemates were. I now want you to do all the work in hopes of backing up my point.

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05-13-2012, 01:24 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by JKsilverstick View Post
Go find Kessel's line-mates yourself if you don't believe me.
I'm on vacation posting from a phone. Theres no way I could look that up right now. I was just interested, never said you were wrong.

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05-13-2012, 01:30 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Wpgpage View Post
So what your saying is that sine there are currently 5 active players that shot above 17% Kuli can be the 6th. Out of the active players on NHL rosters 20*30= 600 players or so there are currently 5 so that's what 0.83% of active players..... yes you are right there is a chance that Kuli can shot CONSISTENTLY over 17% but given that less than 1% of active NHL players do that is there really that much to get excited about? You are completely right he could all of a sudden start firing an additional 75 shots at the net, but the guys that all of a sudden start doing that at the end of their goal scoring prime are almost completely non existent. Again you are identifying the statistical anomalies and assuming that Kuli will be one of them, this is generally not the best idea when trying to evaluate a player they are called anomalies for a reason.

Kuli does have comparable stats through 3 years but given the lucky year he had in 2010/11 and the fact that those where his age 22,23,24 seasons there is a clear difference between the 2 players. They are not comparable not at all.

Finally you still fail to understand the principle of leverage and comparable's in a deal, the Jets are a club that is 4 years into a 6-8 year rebuilding process, they have no need to trade Kane no need at all. The fact that the Leafs picks were projected to be worse holds no weight what so ever the price is set if Phil Kessel got a 2nd and 8th the Jets can now demand that price as that is the comparable deal. Would the Canadians pay that price? I would hope not for their sake but the Jets have no reason to demand anything less. Put yourself in the Jets GM shoes and ask yourself if you had a player with 4 years of team control, no cap issues and no need to take a step back in the rebuild why would you ever trade him for less than what the last player in almost the exact same situation got? You would be undermining your negotiating position in any further trade talks by taking a lesser deal in this situation. Again this trade is ridiculous because the Kessel trade has failed so miserably that no GM will ever pay the price again, and no current GM has any reason to ask for less than the return that Kessel brought. Perhaps in the future the landscape will change and the price for elite young goal scores with ether lower, or opposing GM's will be willing to pay the higher price but at this point I can't see it.
Since the active players that are shooting at that level have varying offensive capabilities which Kulemin is in the range of, and Kulemin has already shown that he can sustain that level over a season when given the opportunities, yes, it is not unreasonable to think that he can be one of those players.

However, as I said, he doesn't have to. He shot 173 times with 17 minutes TOI. Most 1st line players get at least 20 minutes, which would put his shots over 200 if he changed nothing. Which means that he wouldn't even need a 15% shooting percentage to reach 30 goals. It is also not unreasonable to think that he could improve his shot totals beyond his 4th year in the league (I don't know why you think he is past his goal-scoring prime), or when he gets better line-mates and team-mates around him.

So Kulemin had a lucky season in 2010/2011, and Kane is all skill? Nice double-standard.

Phil Kessel resulted in a 2nd overall and 9th overall (nice research there), but that was not what he was traded for. The standard set is two likely non-playoff picks (and a second round pick). Since the one pick by Montreal is already known, and is known to be on the extremely high end, it improves the offer past the one that Kessel got. Pretty significantly too. You are taking away all risk for one of the picks, which holds significant value.

I understand that needs of the team come into play as well, and that is why I don't believe either team would make this trade (as I have said multiple times), but if a trade was going down for whatever reason, it is more than fair value.

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05-13-2012, 01:34 PM
  #216
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Originally Posted by JetsFan815 View Post
Translation: I just pulled the comment about Kane and Kessel having comparable linemates out of my a*s, infact I have no idea who Kessel's linemates were. I now want you to do all the work in hopes of backing up my point.
No, it means that I don't have the time to go searching for records that are so old that they don't exist in the well-known sites that track these things, but I know where in the lineup he frequented, and the quality of players that were on the team when Kessel was, which are comparable to Kane. I just don't know the exact percentages of who he played with the most.

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