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The FAN 1200 - Pierre McGuire - 3rd overall vs J. Staal??

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Old
05-14-2012, 10:03 AM
  #326
le_sean
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
How about four 20+ goal seasons, 3 complete 82 game seasons played, and around 650 cumulative Selke voting points by age 23? I think that one wins.
That's great. I acknowledged the fact he's a very good player. But the stats you just gave describe the perfect 2nd line centre, not a 1st line centre.

The value is fair with the 3rd overall, but the Habs need to develop a 1st line player. In fact the team has Plekanec who is also the perfect 2nd line centre. Acquiring Jordan is not what the team needs.

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05-14-2012, 10:04 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by domdo345 View Post
I like Staal as a player but he clearly benefits the match-ups.
Staal is consistently used to row upwards from the defensive zone against tough opposition. He actually frees up Malkin to get offensive faceoffs and softer opposition. He'd have no trouble with tough matchups because that's pretty much what he does best.

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05-14-2012, 10:12 AM
  #328
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I like Staal as a player but he clearly benefits the match-ups. Crosby's and Malkin's lines always draw the top 4 Dmans. Staal was good against Philly but he was playing vs Grossmann or Lilja. Being a first/second center means facing stronger opposition. He'd still do good, but I doubt he is what we need in order to win.
I think you should familiarize yourself with Corsi/Quality of Competition before making such statements. Sure, everyone benefits from better match-ups, but he plays against the opponents' top offensive lines, and in the Eastern Conference, the best offensive defenseman on a team is quite often also their best defensive defenseman, close to it, or the partner of that guy anyway. That's who Staal faces every night, and the QoC/Corsi QoC bear that out, since on top of being consistently among the top Pittsburgh forwards in those, he also has among the lowest % of offensive zone starts for Pens forwards. And mind you, again, he has already scored 20+ goals four times in this role, and has actually increased his production and level of play every time the team has leaned on him because of the absence(s) of Crosby and/or Malkin.

Also, you might be surprised to find out that Staal is actually a better road than home performer (better stats across the board). If he was so reliant on Pittsburgh coaching for match-ups, I think the stats would do a better job of showing it. Think about this, though: he has been this productive over his career so far despite playing almost entirely against players/lines that are almost assumed to keep control of the puck in an offensive position for the majority of the time. And he has also received defensive accolades facing those players. Gotta think Staal, at age 23, still has plenty to show everyone in terms of "what he can do".

This is perhaps a shorter and better way to express the same thing, lol:
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Staal is consistently used to row upwards from the defensive zone against tough opposition. He actually frees up Malkin to get offensive faceoffs and softer opposition. He'd have no trouble with tough matchups because that's pretty much what he does best.

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05-14-2012, 10:59 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
That's great. I acknowledged the fact he's a very good player. But the stats you just gave describe the perfect 2nd line centre, not a 1st line centre.

The value is fair with the 3rd overall, but the Habs need to develop a 1st line player. In fact the team has Plekanec who is also the perfect 2nd line centre. Acquiring Jordan is not what the team needs.
"Needs"...? Well, the team needs to get better. How many "1st line centres" are there in the league by your own subjective definition? 10? 15? If you can't get one of those, and if you're down to a draft where maybe you have 50/50 odds at best of getting and then (over the course of a few years at minimum) possibly developing one... well...

I'd take Jordan Staal. He may or may not be (or may or may not become) a "1st line centre" of the perennial All-Star point-per-game variety... but those are hard to come by, and hard to successfully draft and develop. But if you have 3 strong lines anchored by good "2nd line centers", then your team may still be fine. Staal, Plekanec, and the productive Desharnais line would strike me as great strength up the middle.

But again, the big drawback with Staal is his contract status. For the assets it would take to acquire him, I wouldn't dare do it with the risk that he's only on our team for 1 season.

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05-14-2012, 11:20 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
"Needs"...? Well, the team needs to get better. How many "1st line centres" are there in the league by your own subjective definition? 10? 15? If you can't get one of those, and if you're down to a draft where maybe you have 50/50 odds at best of getting and then (over the course of a few years at minimum) possibly developing one... well...

I'd take Jordan Staal. He may or may not be (or may or may not become) a "1st line centre" of the perennial All-Star point-per-game variety... but those are hard to come by, and hard to successfully draft and develop. But if you have 3 strong lines anchored by good "2nd line centers", then your team may still be fine. Staal, Plekanec, and the productive Desharnais line would strike me as great strength up the middle.

But again, the big drawback with Staal is his contract status. For the assets it would take to acquire him, I wouldn't dare do it with the risk that he's only on our team for 1 season.
Obviously every team could use Jordan Staal. I just think he fits better with teams that are closer to being contenders. He needs to go to a team with a 1st line centre so he can focus on his defensive role while chipping in. I'm thinking behind Getzlaf in Anaheim, behind his brother Eric in Carolina, behind Spezza in Ottawa. These are teams with offensive centre men and need a very strong two way player to help. He's not the kind of guy you lean on offensively, hence the poor fit with the current Habs.

Use the 3rd overall to get that 1st line centre and then you can make moves like this in the future. It's great to dream of Plekanec/Staal/Desharnais or Eller, but someone is losing ice time and therefore effectiveness in this situation. I just don't see a fit.

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05-14-2012, 11:35 AM
  #331
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Every 10th post in this thread needs to contain a reminder that Staal is a UFA after next season. Third overall vs. 1 year of Jordan Staal? I'd prefer to make the pick in 2012 and if Staal is available after July 1, 2013 make him an offer.

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05-14-2012, 11:41 AM
  #332
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Originally Posted by 24Cups View Post
Every 10th post in this thread needs to contain a reminder that Staal is a UFA after next season. Third overall vs. 1 year of Jordan Staal? I'd prefer to make the pick in 2012 and if Staal is available after July 1, 2013 make him an offer.
Agreed.

There are also no guarantees he progresses into a 1st line center AND with Plekanec as a great 2nd line center and Eller up and coming as a great defensive center who has good offensive potential this really doesn't establish a number 1 center and it also robs the teawm of a chance to draft and develop a player with the 3rd overall pick, which they likely won't get another chance to do for a long time.

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05-14-2012, 07:57 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by 24Cups View Post
Every 10th post in this thread needs to contain a reminder that Staal is a UFA after next season. Third overall vs. 1 year of Jordan Staal? I'd prefer to make the pick in 2012 and if Staal is available after July 1, 2013 make him an offer.
Whoever enters negotiations with him next may be able to work an extension into a deal. Something to consider.

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05-14-2012, 08:39 PM
  #334
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I'd make deal on principle he signs an extension. After that....Staal>>>3rd overall.

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05-14-2012, 08:54 PM
  #335
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
Yeah, I'm sure McGuire knows what Bergevin is already discussing for trades... LOL
He could very easily know what is being discussed by the Penguins brass in terms of potential landing spots for Jordan Staal.

For the record, I think Staal would be an absolutely fantastic pick up for Montreal. I know HFBoards is notorious for prospect worship and gross over valuing of "potential" so I don't expect that potential trade to be well received here but he would be exactly what the team needs.

He's big, talented, capable of scoring 30 goals and rock-solid defensively.

And for the people pointing out he's a UFA after next season - do you really think a team would deal the 3rd overall draft pick for one year of a player? It goes without saying that a trade would be contingent on a new contract for Staal.


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05-14-2012, 08:55 PM
  #336
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I'd make deal on principle he signs an extension. After that....Staal>>>3rd overall.
You can't do that.

If the Habs trade the 3rd overall pick for Staal all they can do is hope that come July 1st they are able to work out an extension with him.

Give me the 3rd overall pick, thanks.

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05-14-2012, 08:57 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by FerrisRox View Post
He could very easily know what is being discussed by the Penguins brass in terms of potential landing spots for Jordan Staal.

For the record, I think Staal would be an absolutely fantastic pick up for Montreal. I know HFBoards is notorious for prospect worship and gross over valuing of "potential" so I don't expect that potential trade to be well received here but he would be exactly what the team needs.

He's big, talented, capable of scoring 30 goals and rock-solid defensively.
Yeah...I doubt it though.

Staal would be a great pick up for Montreal, no one is disputing that...the question is whether it makes sense to trade such an unbelievable asset in the 3rd overall pick for a guy one year away from unrestricted free agency. And who's to say the Penguins would even do that trade straight up? Maybe the Penguins want a far more NHL ready asset than the 3rd overall pick?

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05-14-2012, 08:58 PM
  #338
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I'd rather wait until next summer and sign Crosby.

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05-14-2012, 09:52 PM
  #339
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stall for 3rd overall. yes

/checks contract status.

oh hell no!

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05-14-2012, 10:02 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
You can't do that.

If the Habs trade the 3rd overall pick for Staal all they can do is hope that come July 1st they are able to work out an extension with him.

Give me the 3rd overall pick, thanks.
Teams are allowed to allow the player to speak to other teams. We can agree in principle on a deal before July 1st and he can sign July 1st.

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05-14-2012, 10:40 PM
  #341
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I'd rather wait until next summer and sign Crosby.
in for the win.

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05-14-2012, 11:29 PM
  #342
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Teams are allowed to allow the player to speak to other teams. We can agree in principle on a deal before July 1st and he can sign July 1st.
You aren't allowed to negotiate a contract wtih a player until July 1st.

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05-14-2012, 11:44 PM
  #343
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
You aren't allowed to negotiate a contract wtih a player until July 1st.
are you sure about that?

how in the world would the NHL prevent GM's from negotiating with their own players prior to July 1st?

I believe that it's simply that they can't sign/formalize any deals before July 1st (or whatever the date is for future UFA's).

Pens could certainly allow habs to negotiate with him, and if a deal was agreed on in principle, habs make the trade and then sign him as soon as they are allowed.


and if there is a "rule" against negotiating, then they do it all behind closed doors (have to be quite naive to think that teams don't regularly bi-pass league rules, and as long as its done quietly, the NHL doesn't give a damn).

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05-14-2012, 11:49 PM
  #344
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are you sure about that?

how in the world would the NHL prevent GM's from negotiating with their own players prior to July 1st?

I believe that it's simply that they can't sign/formalize any deals before July 1st (or whatever the date is for future UFA's).

Pens could certainly allow habs to negotiate with him, and if a deal was agreed on in principle, habs make the trade and then sign him as soon as they are allowed.


and if there is a "rule" against negotiating, then they do it all behind closed doors (have to be quite naive to think that teams don't regularly bi-pass league rules, and as long as its done quietly, the NHL doesn't give a damn).
This is all true Miller Time, but while the Habs and Staal could conceivably come to some sort of consensus about a number to re-sign at, the fact remains that they would not be able to sign him.

Who knows what kind of character Staal has, maybe he changes his mind once July 1st comes along and says no amount of monye will stop him from testing the market.

Trading for players who are already making big time money and are so close to UFA is not the right path to building a consistent contender.

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05-14-2012, 11:55 PM
  #345
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
This is all true Miller Time, but while the Habs and Staal could conceivably come to some sort of consensus about a number to re-sign at, the fact remains that they would not be able to sign him.

Who knows what kind of character Staal has, maybe he changes his mind once July 1st comes along and says no amount of monye will stop him from testing the market.

Trading for players who are already making big time money and are so close to UFA is not the right path to building a consistent contender.
as for Staal's character... we can never know what's inside a person, but from everything we do know about Staal & the Staal family, I would feel pretty good about it if he gave his word. perhaps a different story if we were talking about a guy with a sketchy track record.

but you are right, handshakes aren't guarantees, so the team would be taking a "risk".


Trading a top pick for an impending UFA definitely isn't a good idea, agree completely. But that's not what I'm talking about.

you're assuming we couldn't trust him, I'm assuming we could, both are just that assumptions.

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05-15-2012, 12:01 AM
  #346
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
as for Staal's character... we can never know what's inside a person, but from everything we do know about Staal & the Staal family, I would feel pretty good about it if he gave his word. perhaps a different story if we were talking about a guy with a sketchy track record.

but you are right, handshakes aren't guarantees, so the team would be taking a "risk".


Trading a top pick for an impending UFA definitely isn't a good idea, agree completely. But that's not what I'm talking about.

you're assuming we couldn't trust him, I'm assuming we could, both are just that assumptions.
It's not that I'm assuming they shouldn't trust him Miller, just pointing out a risk.

That's all kind of irrelevant though, with Staal coming over you then have Staal, Price, Subban and Pacioretty all either making their big pay day this Summer or next. That's a lot of money, and ignores completely guys like Eller, Emelin, Desharnais, Diaz and Weber.

I'm of the belief that this year was a blip on the radar, but we've seen with a team like Toronto trying to shortcut things and it not paying off at all.

I kinda like the 3 man centre trio of Eller, DD and Plekx. Maybe Eller breaks out as a 50 point guy with great 2 way abilities. Is Staal really worth that much more than him because he's a couple inches taller?

I dunno. I'd rather see the Habs take a bit of a conservative approach right now, and see what kind of follow up seasons guys like DD and Pacio can have next year.

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05-15-2012, 12:15 AM
  #347
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This is all true Miller Time, but while the Habs and Staal could conceivably come to some sort of consensus about a number to re-sign at, the fact remains that they would not be able to sign him.

Who knows what kind of character Staal has, maybe he changes his mind once July 1st comes along and says no amount of monye will stop him from testing the market.

Trading for players who are already making big time money and are so close to UFA is not the right path to building a consistent contender.
Are you seriously suggesting Staal would lie to his new organization that would WANT him and give him an increased role? If this is a draft day deal, do you seriously expect him to back out of his word a mere 1-2 weeks later?

It's not a handshake. It's a contract written up and all that needs to be done is sign on the line July 1st.

It's one thing if Staal backs out on the deal and 'changes his mind'. That's unlikely as it is but his representation...his agent would lose all credibility around the hockey world. Few people will bother with a guy who endorses such actions.

The last time this ever came was with Nylander and he was a UFA and screwed the oilers.

I'm not sure if you know this but Staal is signed for another year after this one. I assume you do so and in light of that, do you seriously expect him to agree in principle to a deal and brush it off for an entire year while playing for the habs?

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05-15-2012, 12:37 AM
  #348
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That was just a minor part of my response.

I think trading for a very soon to be UFA is a far bigger issue than the fact that the handshake deal they may or may not agree on wouldn't hold up in the court of NHL law.

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05-15-2012, 12:49 AM
  #349
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It's not that I'm assuming they shouldn't trust him Miller, just pointing out a risk.

That's all kind of irrelevant though, with Staal coming over you then have Staal, Price, Subban and Pacioretty all either making their big pay day this Summer or next. That's a lot of money, and ignores completely guys like Eller, Emelin, Desharnais, Diaz and Weber.

I'm of the belief that this year was a blip on the radar, but we've seen with a team like Toronto trying to shortcut things and it not paying off at all.

I kinda like the 3 man centre trio of Eller, DD and Plekx. Maybe Eller breaks out as a 50 point guy with great 2 way abilities. Is Staal really worth that much more than him because he's a couple inches taller?

I dunno. I'd rather see the Habs take a bit of a conservative approach right now, and see what kind of follow up seasons guys like DD and Pacio can have next year.
I'm bullish on the habs current trio as well... but I also think Staal is an opportunity away from taking a huge step forward (in both production and recognition).

yes, it's a risk, but then so is drafting. Staal is at worst the player we've seen so far, which is pretty damn good, at best he develops into an elite #1 C in his mid-late 20's. With the pick, worst case scenario is we end up with a Pouliot or Barker, best case is we end up with someone as good as Staal or better...

i'd say either way we walk away from the summer stronger as an organization, and I'd be happy with both scenarios.

Cap-wise, while we do have a few other key young assets needing raises, Gionta/Gomez/Kaberle represent ~17M$ of cap space btw now (hopefully) and 2014. Considering we were apparently seriously in the Richards race (and this with Cammy's 6M$ still on the books) I'm sure our management team would find away to make it work.

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05-15-2012, 12:51 AM
  #350
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That was just a minor part of my response.

I think trading for a very soon to be UFA is a far bigger issue than the fact that the handshake deal they may or may not agree on wouldn't hold up in the court of NHL law.
These things just don't happen. You're talking hypotheticals but they are so unlikely it's pointless to discuss them. He's UFA in 1 year. If they agree to a deal on June 22nd do you seriously see him ****ing the habs over a mere 2 weeks later? AND IF we did...do you expect him to hide for another full year after promising a deal? Be reasonable.

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