A Suter/Carle top pairing looks like a pretty great pairing and then sign someone like Gill to put with Kimmo.
That would be about 30-32 million dollars tied up in defense next season with the only alleviation coming from Kimmo/Gil? being a UFA after next season. That's a boatload of longterm defense tied up in defense.
That would be about 30-32 million dollars tied up in defense next season with the only alleviation coming from Kimmo/Gil? being a UFA after next season. That's a boatload of longterm defense tied up in defense.
Kimmo will be finishing up his contract that will free up a lot of cap space.
I think he is fine if he signs below market value. His defensive play isnt that good though, advanced stats and watching him play shows it. Thats a fact. That being said though, he is a solid 3-4, but shouldnt be relied on as a #1 defender which Lavy has done at times. He isn't a #1 and Lavy doing that allows Carle's mistakes to not only be noticed more but increased. So if he signs below market value. (4.3 ish) I think I'll be fine with that. That being said though, when you are considered what, the 2nd best d-man, in a weak FA defense class, I can't see him not asking for more money. There WILL be a team that will offer him around 6 mil, and thats WAY to much.
I think he is fine if he signs below market value. His defensive play isnt that good though, advanced stats and watching him play shows it. Thats a fact. That being said though, he is a solid 3-4, but shouldnt be relied on as a #1 defender which Lavy has done at times. He isn't a #1 and Lavy doing that allows Carle's mistakes to not only be noticed more but increased. So if he signs below market value. (4.3 ish) I think I'll be fine with that. That being said though, when you are considered what, the 2nd best d-man, in a weak FA defense class, I can't see him not asking for more money. There WILL be a team that will offer him around 6 mil, and thats WAY to much.
Come again? He had the 2nd best Corsi while facing the 3rd toughest competition and one of the tougher zone starts out of our regulars. That's with Bourdon as his most regular partner during the season. He is a lot better defensively than people realize. He isn't a #1, but he's a good 2/3. I wouldn't pay him $6M, but I wouldn't have any problem with going to $5M.
Come again? He had the 2nd best Corsi while facing the 3rd toughest competition and one of the tougher zone starts out of our regulars. That's with Bourdon as his most regular partner during the season. He is a lot better defensively than people realize. He isn't a #1, but he's a good 2/3. I wouldn't pay him $6M, but I wouldn't have any problem with going to $5M.
Besides eating a ton of minutes, what exactly does Carle do well?
He's an "offensive defenseman" that has a weak shot and pretty much cant hit in the blind side of a barn.
His positioning at times is beyond questionable. Without Pronger carrying him, his true talent shined through and boy oh boy, how talentless he is.
Come again? He had the 2nd best Corsi while facing the 3rd toughest competition and one of the tougher zone starts out of our regulars. That's with Bourdon as his most regular partner during the season. He is a lot better defensively than people realize. He isn't a #1, but he's a good 2/3. I wouldn't pay him $6M, but I wouldn't have any problem with going to $5M.
He had a strong finish to the season. I'll try to find the picture but I had a picture showing him having the 3rd best corsi (or 4th) and facing only the 4th strongest competition. I did this during our March debate on Matt Carle. Carle wasnt too good for the first half+ of the season.
EDIT: He also had the best teammates, 3rd on the team behind Coburn and Grossmann.
EDIT: Just looked at his Corsi. You looking at the right thing?
He played the worse competition on the team only ahead of Meszaros @ .001. On the other hand, he had the 3rd best Corsi QOT.
He had a strong finish to the season. I'll try to find the picture but I had a picture showing him having the 3rd best corsi (or 4th) and facing only the 4th strongest competition. I did this during our March debate on Matt Carle. Carle wasnt too good for the first half+ of the season.
So he struggled a bit more at start, but finished well? I don't see the problem. I'd much rather see a player that finishes well than finishes poorly.
The second link is: Corsi Quality of Teammates
Average Corsi of Teammates, weighted by ice time together.
The 2nd one doesn't even have to do with him. It's the Corsi of his teammates he is on ice with.
See thats what I disagree with, I think looking at the relative corsi vs. who he is up against, is better to compare instead of just looking at just +/- corsi. So in other words, the 2nd one is taking into account the +/- which we all know is one of the worse stats in hockey.
The second one is relevant because it needs to be considered when looking at his competition. You can not just say he is great defensively and not look who he is on the ice with.
Your second I think is the most flawed. Honestly just look at the players who are after Timonen and Carle. Im a huge Gustafsson fan, but here it ranks him third, while Meszaros's worse season has him as 4th. Also going by that stat says that Lilja was better than Grossmann was when he was on the ice vs. off. When looking at these stats, one really needs to take in multiple angles. Who he is on with, who he is playing against, etc etc.
Other than Corsi stats proving every Carle-hater wrong, what are we talking about here exactly? Are people naive enough to think that the Flyers can afford to lose Matt Carle? He plays #1 minutes and loses no time due to injury. With Pronger all done, Kimmo likely all done after next year, a injury-prone Mez and no other puckmovers, how can Homer not afford to sign Carle to a long-term deal, especially with the dearth of FA's on the market? Add 40 points per year to the mix and its a no-brainer for management. And please spare us with the lazy "he's soft and has a slow slapshot" argument.
See thats what I disagree with, I think looking at the relative corsi vs. who he is up against, is better to compare instead of just looking at just +/- corsi. So in other words, the 2nd one is taking into account the +/- which we all know is one of the worse stats in hockey.
The second one is relevant because it needs to be considered when looking at his competition. You can not just say he is great defensively and not look who he is on the ice with.
Your second I think is the most flawed. Honestly just look at the players who are after Timonen and Carle. Im a huge Gustafsson fan, but here it ranks him third, while Meszaros's worse season has him as 4th. Also going by that stat says that Lilja was better than Grossmann was when he was on the ice vs. off. When looking at these stats, one really needs to take in multiple angles. Who he is on with, who he is playing against, etc etc.
Relative Corsi does not utilize the plus minus stat. It's the difference between a player's Corsi when he is on the ice than when he is off it. For example Rinaldo's Corsi when he is on the ice is -6.87, but the Corsi when he is not on the ice is 4.39. His relative Corsi is -6.87 minus 4.39 or -11.26 which they round to -11.3. That is the difference between him on the ice and off it.
The 2nd link you provided only gives us an idea of what the Corsi of the teammates when he is on the ice with.
Carle's Corsi relative is 2nd amongst Flyers defenders. The Corsi relative of his competition is 3rd amongst Flyers defenseman. The Corsi relative of his teammates is 4th amongst Flyers defenseman.
So he's facing 2nd pairing competition, with 2nd pairing teammates and finished with the 2nd best Corsi. He also had tough zone starts. At worse he is a good #3 that can play on a top pairing.
Other than Corsi stats proving every Carle-hater wrong, what are we talking about here exactly? Are people naive enough to think that the Flyers can afford to lose Matt Carle? He plays #1 minutes and loses no time due to injury. With Pronger all done, Kimmo likely all done after next year, a injury-prone Mez and no other puckmovers, how can Homer not afford to sign Carle to a long-term deal, especially with the dearth of FA's on the market? Add 40 points per year to the mix and its a no-brainer for management. And please spare us with the lazy "he's soft and has a slow slapshot" argument.
Just because you play #1 minutes, doesnt mean you are a number 1 defender. You are probably the only one here that thinks he is worth what he would get on the open market, close to 6 mil.
I already disagree that he is worth 5 mil, he isnt significantly better than Meszaros, Coburn and Grossmann.
The expected cap hit alone is reason enough. He plays #1 minutes, but has proven time and again that he can't deal with #1 competition. We may need his cap hit to go towards someone who can.
On top of that he can't QB a PP, and his shot is indeed worthless...we need someone with a point shot.
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Down in the basement, I've got a Craftsman lathe. Show it to the children when they misbehave.
Just because you play #1 minutes, doesnt mean you are a number 1 defender. You are probably the only one here that thinks he is worth what he would get on the open market, close to 6 mil.
I already disagree that he is worth 5 mil, he isnt significantly better than Meszaros, Coburn and Grossmann.
I don't make the claim that he's a #1, because he's not. I merely state he plays #1 minutes. And I certainly don't drink the $6M kool-aid. No way in hell anyone offers him that type of money. Like I've said before. I think he signs at 4.5 here long-term. That's fair value, and the only reason I think the flyers get him for 4.5 if because Carle is humbled by playing in a hockey town on a good team. I think a deal gets done before he can test the market IMO.
Relative Corsi does not utilize the plus minus stat. It's the difference between a player's Corsi when he is on the ice than when he is off it. For example Rinaldo's Corsi when he is on the ice is -6.87, but the Corsi when he is not on the ice is 4.39. His relative Corsi is -6.87 minus 4.39 or -11.26 which they round to -11.3. That is the difference between him on the ice and off it.
The 2nd link you provided only gives us an idea of what the Corsi of the teammates when he is on the ice with.
Carle's Corsi relative is 2nd amongst Flyers defenders. The Corsi relative of his competition is 3rd amongst Flyers defenseman. The Corsi relative of his teammates is 4th amongst Flyers defenseman.
So he's facing 2nd pairing competition, with 2nd pairing teammates and finished with the 2nd best Corsi. He also had tough zone starts. At worse he is a good #3 that can play on a top pairing.
Alright well I agree to disagree. At this point, we are just throwing stats out there to defend our points, and since there are so many stats its easy to do it. The stat whores of BSH, Im pretty sure, use Corsi QOC. Lets just say I dont think he is better than Coburn is, and Corsi Rel QoC shows it. He shouldnt be making that much more than Coburn is, which at 5 mil he will be.
The expected cap hit alone is reason enough. He plays #1 minutes, but has proven time and again that he can't deal with #1 competition. We may need his cap hit to go towards someone who can.
On top of that he can't QB a PP, and his shot is indeed worthless...we need someone with a point shot.
Theres a reason why his TOI went down in playoffs and Coburn's went up. He isnt that bad of a #3/4 but where I totally disagree is where people say he can play on the top pairings. He can't/shouldn't.
The expected cap hit alone is reason enough. He plays #1 minutes, but has proven time and again that he can't deal with #1 competition. We may need his cap hit to go towards someone who can.
On top of that he can't QB a PP, and his shot is indeed worthless...we need someone with a point shot.
Carle is good for a 2nd PP unit. He can't bomb it, but he does score goals. He scored two goals in the playoffs, both slappers with good heat IIRC. If they sign him at 4.5, I think they can go after a Suter/Weber to fill the #1 spot. Having Carle anchor a 2nd pairing behind a Suter/Weber - led pairing wouldn't be all bad.
Carle is good for a 2nd PP unit. He can't bomb it, but he does score goals. He scored two goals in the playoffs, both slappers with good heat IIRC. If they sign him at 4.5, I think they can go after a Suter/Weber to fill the #1 spot. Having Carle anchor a 2nd pairing behind a Suter/Weber - led pairing wouldn't be all bad.
The team has got to watch stacking up with a lot of money put in it. We still have Meszaros for a few years, and he won the defender award last season for a reason. He didnt have a good season but he played injured almost the whole time so he can get a pass. He needs to step up to be relevant next year. We will have Coburn and Grossmann under contract, and then we might get Suter. I would rather use the Timonen money on a guy like Enstrom, who can play some #1 minutes.
Honestly, if we get Suter, going into next season:
Alright well I agree to disagree. At this point, we are just throwing stats out there to defend our points, and since there are so many stats its easy to do it. The stat whores of BSH, Im pretty sure, use Corsi QOC. Lets just say I dont think he is better than Coburn is, and Corsi Rel QoC shows it. He shouldnt be making that much more than Coburn is, which at 5 mil he will be.
Corsi Relative is more useful because it tells you how much better a player is when they are on the ice versus when they are off it.
$5M isn't that much more than Coburn especially considering he has more offense to his game and is close to hitting the open market. I think $5M is very fair. If he signs for anything less it is a bargain IMO.
$5M isn't that much more than Coburn especially considering he has more offense to his game and is close to hitting the open market. I think $5M is very fair. If he signs for anything less it is a bargain IMO.
Fair enough. I dont have enough time to debate this any longer. Got a final tomorrow .
According to the defintions of the site:
Relative Corsi Quality of Competition: Average Relative Corsi of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time.
Corsi Quality of Competition: Average Corsi of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time.
So in other words, its how a TEAM is with a player is off the ice vs. on? You cant say how good a player is on vs. off. That doesn't make sense.
How can one say that is factual. Can you honestly say the for relative corsi depicts that Gustafsson and Meszaros are "better" than Coburn and Grossmann.
Let's just say, what BSH does is biased at times. They really like Carle over there, and said he is on the same level as Suter and even compared him to Lindstrom, Chara etc etc.
$5M isn't that much more than Coburn especially considering he has more offense to his game and is close to hitting the open market. I think $5M is very fair. If he signs for anything less it is a bargain IMO.
Agreed, if it could be $4.8M for 5 years, he'd be able to stay where he and his family want to stay, with a team he likes, and make $24M..... He could sign as a UFA for maybe $27 million for 5 years, but end up having to uproot the family and then hate the new team/coach etc.
Like all these guys, he's already set for life financially, and his kids and theirs too. This contract is for the great-great grandkids.....
Based on what Homer said about good talks with Carle's agent and tagging holding them back, there is already an agreement in place ready to sign - it just needs the tagging space to open up.
Other than Corsi stats proving every Carle-hater wrong, what are we talking about here exactly? Are people naive enough to think that the Flyers can afford to lose Matt Carle? He plays #1 minutes and loses no time due to injury. With Pronger all done, Kimmo likely all done after next year, a injury-prone Mez and no other puckmovers, how can Homer not afford to sign Carle to a long-term deal, especially with the dearth of FA's on the market? Add 40 points per year to the mix and its a no-brainer for management. And please spare us with the lazy "he's soft and has a slow slapshot" argument.
That's because the facts have little value around here. The facts have proven the Carle hater here wrong since he's been here. Do you expect that to change? I don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred
Just because you play #1 minutes, doesnt mean you are a number 1 defender. You are probably the only one here that thinks he is worth what he would get on the open market, close to 6 mil.
I already disagree that he is worth 5 mil, he isnt significantly better than Meszaros, Coburn and Grossmann.
I don't think that Carle is a #1 defender. And I don't think that the Flyers or anyone else in the League does either. The reason why you don't think that Carle is worth 5M is because you don't understand the NHL Salary Structure, or the value of certain types of players on the open market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish Invictus
The expected cap hit alone is reason enough. He plays #1 minutes, but has proven time and again that he can't deal with #1 competition. We may need his cap hit to go towards someone who can.
On top of that he can't QB a PP, and his shot is indeed worthless...we need someone with a point shot.
All the facts say you are wrong. Carle has spent a lot of time on the ice playing against top competition. And he not only can handle it, he has flourished at it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverBoone
I don't make the claim that he's a #1, because he's not. I merely state he plays #1 minutes. And I certainly don't drink the $6M kool-aid. No way in hell anyone offers him that type of money. Like I've said before. I think he signs at 4.5 here long-term. That's fair value, and the only reason I think the flyers get him for 4.5 if because Carle is humbled by playing in a hockey town on a good team. I think a deal gets done before he can test the market IMO.
I wouldn't pay Carle 6M either. But I would pay him 5M.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred
Theres a reason why his TOI went down in playoffs and Coburn's went up. He isnt that bad of a #3/4 but where I totally disagree is where people say he can play on the top pairings. He can't/shouldn't.
He already has played on a top pairing, and proven that he is well suited for it. Carle is a #2 NHL defenseman. And one thing that is consistent is that you don't have the facts. Carle averaged 23:01 during the regular Season. And 25:19 in the playoffs. His icetime went up in the playoffs. Not down. How can you expect to have any credibility if you can't even get the simple facts of icetime correct?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverBoone
Carle is good for a 2nd PP unit. He can't bomb it, but he does score goals. He scored two goals in the playoffs, both slappers with good heat IIRC. If they sign him at 4.5, I think they can go after a Suter/Weber to fill the #1 spot. Having Carle anchor a 2nd pairing behind a Suter/Weber - led pairing wouldn't be all bad.
The Flyers would have to make considerable moves to sing a top UFA such as Suter to clear Cap space, after signing Carle.
How can one say that is factual. Can you honestly say the for relative corsi depicts that Gustafsson and Meszaros are "better" than Coburn and Grossmann.
Let's just say, what BSH does is biased at times. They really like Carle over there, and said he is on the same level as Suter and even compared him to Lindstrom, Chara etc etc.
Good luck tomorrow. I think the gap between our opinions isn't really that far off anyway. It may be greedy, but I am hoping they can sign both Suter and Carle this summer.
As for Corsi, yeah I meant relative corsi is the corsi of the player on the ice minus what the team's corsi is with them off the ice.
You have to be able to put these stats in context. Gustafsson's Corsi is better than Coburn's, but he is facing some of the easiest competition
hoping he falls)
. 
I think the gap between our opinions isn't really that far off anyway. 
It may be greedy, but I am hoping they can sign both Suter and Carle this summer.
