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The FAN 1200 - Pierre McGuire - 3rd overall vs J. Staal??

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Old
05-15-2012, 01:17 AM
  #351
Miller Time
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
These things just don't happen. You're talking hypotheticals but they are so unlikely it's pointless to discuss them. He's UFA in 1 year. If they agree to a deal on June 22nd do you seriously see him ****ing the habs over a mere 2 weeks later? AND IF we did...do you expect him to hide for another full year after promising a deal? Be reasonable.
and you know what, the other reality is that IF in some crazy scenario the team traded for him and an extension didn't happen right away/he didn't want to sign with us long-term, he'd be a heck of a trading chip come deadline day.

We'd get a year for Eller/DD to continue improving while not needing to be relied on as heavily as they were this year, and if what many of us predict were to happen (Staal significantly upping his production when featured as a #1 centre), his value would likely be sky high at the deadline.

With 2013 being talked about as one of the better drafts in a long time, possibility emerges that we end up with a top-10 pick (who could be just as good as anyone available at #3 this year) AND other assets.

an intriguing angle, lot's of IF's, but the point being that even short of a guaranteed extension, it wouldn't by default mean we traded away the 3rd overall this year for a 1-year "rental".

(*saying all that, I'd wouldn't make the trade without the access to Staal and his commitment to extending)

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05-15-2012, 02:05 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
That's great. I acknowledged the fact he's a very good player. But the stats you just gave describe the perfect 2nd line centre, not a 1st line centre.

The value is fair with the 3rd overall, but the Habs need to develop a 1st line player. In fact the team has Plekanec who is also the perfect 2nd line centre. Acquiring Jordan is not what the team needs.
You have to consider that he got those stats as a 3rd line player, playing with third line players, as a checking line... and always on the 2nd wave of the PP.. which is around 30-40 seconds.

Give him top wingers, playing on 1st PP unit.. I think he could easily get 30G/70pts.

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05-15-2012, 02:24 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by Stradale View Post
You have to consider that he got those stats as a 3rd line player, playing with third line players, as a checking line... and always on the 2nd wave of the PP.. which is around 30-40 seconds.

Give him top wingers, playing on 1st PP unit.. I think he could easily get 30G/70pts.
Staal played 20:03 a night and 1:59 PP time for the season. As well as 15:25 at ES (22nd in the league for centers) He was not, and is not a 3rd line player with Pittsburgh. Yes he plays with weaker offensive players on his wings but that goes both ways as he also on a team with a star like Malkin never faces opposing teams top defensive guys.

Eller also played with weak linemates this year, with good wingers maybe he scores 25 goals and 55 points. Is Staal going to be worth the 4 or so more million per year after next season he will cost?

Would we be having this conversation if Staal was 6 feet instead of 6 foot 3?

Yes he COULD hit 30 goals and 70 assists or maybe he's never going to be more than a 55 point player. I'm sure there have been many times when a guy was playing behind other more offesnive guys and putting up what seemed to be very impressive numbers and then upon moving into a new situation with better linemates and minutes didn't really advance his numbers that greatly.

Staal really doesn't strike me as a guy who makes his linemates better or anything either. To me, while it's possible he could be a 30+ goal 70+ point guy I think he's far more suited to be a 2nd liner in the NHL. Perhaps the best 2nd line centerman in the league.

Another thing is, the Penguins are looking to win now. The 3rd overall pick this year may very well not even be NHL ready next season. Isn't it plausible they will be looking for a far more NHL ready commodity?

Too bad we didn't have another guy like Pacioretty, only not as good..who could be part of a trade package for Staal.

I also think it's very possible they'd have interest in Eller. As he's an NHL ready guy who could take over a lot of Staal's minutes but be much cheaper. Obviously it would have to be Eller+ and I don't know what might make sense.

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05-15-2012, 02:41 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
Staal played 20:03 a night and 1:59 PP time for the season. As well as 15:25 at ES (22nd in the league for centers) He was not, and is not a 3rd line player with Pittsburgh. Yes he plays with weaker offensive players on his wings but that goes both ways as he also on a team with a star like Malkin never faces opposing teams top defensive guys.

Eller also played with weak linemates this year, with good wingers maybe he scores 25 goals and 55 points. Is Staal going to be worth the 4 or so more million per year after next season he will cost?

Would we be having this conversation if Staal was 6 feet instead of 6 foot 3?

Yes he COULD hit 30 goals and 70 assists or maybe he's never going to be more than a 55 point player. I'm sure there have been many times when a guy was playing behind other more offesnive guys and putting up what seemed to be very impressive numbers and then upon moving into a new situation with better linemates and minutes didn't really advance his numbers that greatly.

Staal really doesn't strike me as a guy who makes his linemates better or anything either. To me, while it's possible he could be a 30+ goal 70+ point guy I think he's far more suited to be a 2nd liner in the NHL. Perhaps the best 2nd line centerman in the league.
then again, he was on pace for 33 goals & 66pts this year (and with 62 games, i'd say it's a large enough amount of games to suggest he'd have stayed close to that pace with 20 additional games... heck, if you add the 6 playoff games, he was at a 37goal/71pt pace over 68 games).

as MM pointed out, he did this despite being the Pens go-to defensive zone start C, and with pretty average top-9 wingers...

all this at 23.

also, to the "doesn't make his linemates better point".

Dupuis had a career year (11 & 21 points better than his 2 previous career bests)... guess who his primary centre was?

Cooke, 2nd best year of his career... Staal his primary C
Kennedy's 2 best seasons (this year and last)... Staal at C


yeah, I'd say a guy who, at 23 years old no less, can get the best out of Dupuis/Kennedy/Cooke, AND who can put up 30 goal/70pt pace with those 3 guys as his primary wingers, does both things you are skeptical about.

He makes his linemates better AND is likely to up his production when given actual top-6 wingers and more offensive zone starts.

Unless of course you think it was Dupuis having a "break out" season at 33 that led to Staal's career best gpg/ppg...

MM would be proud, using stats to make a point

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05-15-2012, 04:29 AM
  #355
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Look at McDonagh or Carlson? Where would we be with them right now? That's why you don't trade draft choices for quick fixes.

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05-15-2012, 05:41 AM
  #356
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
then again, he was on pace for 33 goals & 66pts this year (and with 62 games, i'd say it's a large enough amount of games to suggest he'd have stayed close to that pace with 20 additional games... heck, if you add the 6 playoff games, he was at a 37goal/71pt pace over 68 games).

as MM pointed out, he did this despite being the Pens go-to defensive zone start C, and with pretty average top-9 wingers...

all this at 23.

also, to the "doesn't make his linemates better point".

Dupuis had a career year (11 & 21 points better than his 2 previous career bests)... guess who his primary centre was?

Cooke, 2nd best year of his career... Staal his primary C
Kennedy's 2 best seasons (this year and last)... Staal at C


yeah, I'd say a guy who, at 23 years old no less, can get the best out of Dupuis/Kennedy/Cooke, AND who can put up 30 goal/70pt pace with those 3 guys as his primary wingers, does both things you are skeptical about.

He makes his linemates better AND is likely to up his production when given actual top-6 wingers and more offensive zone starts.

Unless of course you think it was Dupuis having a "break out" season at 33 that led to Staal's career best gpg/ppg...

MM would be proud, using stats to make a point
You and I are basically on the same page with Staal. The only part where I will have to disagree is on Dupuis' production. He racked up the majority of his points at the end of the season while playing with Crosby.

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05-15-2012, 06:50 AM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
You and I are basically on the same page with Staal. The only part where I will have to disagree is on Dupuis' production. He racked up the majority of his points at the end of the season while playing with Crosby.
Here's Dupuis' scoring log. There's a whole lot of Staal in there, including early/mid March when Dupuis when on a scoring streak. Playoffs was all Crosby/Dupuis, but that's because Crosby/Malkin were both playing, and Staal was busy scoring 6 goals/9 points in 6 games with Kennedy/Kunitz/Cooke (scoring log).

Oh, and could people please stop referring to a 23 year old former 2nd overall draft pick and quality building block as a "quick fix", lol? kthnx.

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05-15-2012, 07:04 AM
  #358
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I can't believe the Jordan Staal hate.

When healthy, the kid is a horse (literally and figuratively).


You've got a well unknown prospect at #3 -- and not anywhere near a lock in terms of being a bona-fide NHLer.

On the other side, you have a hulking center w/tremendous skill and lockdown ability.



Throw me in the Staal camp. If the Isles get this offer put forth, I take it and run.

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05-15-2012, 07:05 AM
  #359
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
Look at McDonagh or Carlson? Where would we be with them right now? That's why you don't trade draft choices for quick fixes.
Don't make me vomit.


When that trade went through, I was ready to break my fist against a wall.

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05-15-2012, 07:49 AM
  #360
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
Look at McDonagh or Carlson? Where would we be with them right now? That's why you don't trade draft choices for quick fixes.
This is exactly what I'm expecting to happen all over again if we trade our 3rd overall pick.

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05-15-2012, 07:51 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by airic000 View Post
This is exactly what I'm expecting to happen all over again if we trade our 3rd overall pick.
"Exactly"? You expect a 23 year old Staal to drop off immediately like Gomez, do you?

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05-15-2012, 08:01 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
"Exactly"? You expect a 23 year old Staal to drop off immediately like Gomez, do you?
Please don't bring logic into the discussion.

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05-15-2012, 08:04 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
"Exactly"? You expect a 23 year old Staal to drop off immediately like Gomez, do you?
If you trade a boatload for a guy then give him a big contract, you set yourself up for a big disapointment and undue pressure. The age is not the same as Gomez but Gomez isn't struggling because he is old, he is bucking with the pressure of living up to the trade and his contract. If you trade for Staal and expect him to come in and be a 90 point #1 center it will turn bad in a hurry.

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05-15-2012, 08:59 AM
  #364
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
If you trade a boatload for a guy then give him a big contract, you set yourself up for a big disapointment and undue pressure. The age is not the same as Gomez but Gomez isn't struggling because he is old, he is bucking with the pressure of living up to the trade and his contract. If you trade for Staal and expect him to come in and be a 90 point #1 center it will turn bad in a hurry.
Actually, he hasn't been the same, imo, since he got his pelvic bone smashed when checked into an open bench while playing for Alaska during the lockout. He had his "big year" right afterward, but I think that was a function of teammates for sure. So yeah, that injury, plus age and subsequent groin/thigh issues, HAS been the biggest combination of contributing factors imo.

edit: and who "expects" anyone to get 90 points these days? Only three people did it league-wide this year, and five the year before, lol.


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05-15-2012, 10:04 AM
  #365
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
Look at McDonagh or Carlson? Where would we be with them right now? That's why you don't trade draft choices for quick fixes.
I don't think I would do that trade but to consider Staal a "quick fix" is kind of silly.

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05-15-2012, 10:06 AM
  #366
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I don't think I would do that trade but to consider Staal a "quick fix" is kind of silly.
Not a quick fix but still a shortcut.

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05-15-2012, 10:09 AM
  #367
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Not a quick fix but still a shortcut.
in any walk of life, except maybe riding in a NY cab, short cuts are a good thing, not a bad one.

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05-15-2012, 10:12 AM
  #368
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Not a quick fix but still a shortcut.
Acquiring assets that could legitimately be considered "building blocks" is NOT taking a shortcut. It's developing the core you want to build around; i.e. the opposite of a shortcut.

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05-15-2012, 10:28 AM
  #369
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It really comes down to how you answer two questions:

1. Will the 3rd overall pick be better than Staal? Based on the forwards taken at 3rd overall or later (if a defenseman was taken there) over the last 12 years, no, they will not be better. Now there are exceptions, so if you think whoever will be available at #3 is going to be more like Jonathon Toews than Alexander Svitov, then you make the deal. But the odds are not in your favor. Of course that's why you have a scouting staff, and you had better hope your scouting staff is a good one, and one that will give you good, honest opinions, and not answer with a bunch of "well, you knows, ifs, buts, and perhapses".

2. Can you resign Staal before he hits UFA? It's a legitimate concern, but me I say that if you are worried that you can't sign a guy despite having over a year to woo him, then you kind of suck as an organization. On July 1st you get about 2 hours to convince somebody to spend the next x amount of years in your city, but we're worried we can't do it over a 12 month period?? This is Montreal! This is the Montreal Canadiens! One of the greatest cities and organizations in the world and in professional sports! Have a little faith in your town and team, is what I say.

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05-15-2012, 10:29 AM
  #370
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in any walk of life, except maybe riding in a NY cab, short cuts are a good thing, not a bad one.
The problem is that you might be able to get a guy that has more upside than Staal at #3 while costing less in salary.

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05-15-2012, 10:34 AM
  #371
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It really comes down to how you answer two questions:

1. Will the 3rd overall pick be better than Staal? Based on the forwards taken at 3rd overall or later (if a defenseman was taken there) over the last 12 years, no, they will not be better. Now there are exceptions, so if you think whoever will be available at #3 is going to be more like Jonathon Toews than Alexander Svitov, then you make the deal. But the odds are not in your favor. Of course that's why you have a scouting staff, and you had better hope your scouting staff is a good one, and one that will give you good, honest opinions, and not answer with a bunch of "well, you knows, ifs, buts, and perhapses".

2. Can you resign Staal before he hits UFA? It's a legitimate concern, but me I say that if you are worried that you can't sign a guy despite having over a year to woo him, then you kind of suck as an organization. On July 1st you get about 2 hours to convince somebody to spend the next x amount of years in your city, but we're worried we can't do it over a 12 month period?? This is Montreal! This is the Montreal Canadiens! One of the greatest cities and organizations in the world and in professional sports! Have a little faith in your town and team, is what I say.
It's not just about being able to re-sign the player...if you give somebody enough money they WILL re-sign, it's getting signed at a reasonable rate. The guy you can get at the #3 pick will cost a lot less the first 3-6 years in the NHL.

Plus what Staal brings, what he is known for(strong 2 way play) is not a big need. We have the top(or 2nd best) PK in the NHL and Plekanec plays a huge part in that. Eller is a big strong guy not affraid to get his nose dirty and will grow into a #2 or #3 2 way role. LeBlanc could also play a #2-3 center role if needed.

We need a potential high end forward, not another solid 2 way guy.

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05-15-2012, 10:38 AM
  #372
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Which is why my first question that you have to ask yourself is whether or not he is going to be better than the 3rd overall pick. You say we need a high-end offensive guy - the odds are not great that the 3rd overall will be that guy, and certainly not a heck of a lot better than Staal becoming that guy.

Yes, the 3rd overall will be much cheaper than Staal. But that's not going to mean a heck of a lot if he sucks, or doesn't start producing for another 3-5 years. Sometimes in life you get a bargain. Other times you get what you pay for. Sometimes you get a lemon. That's life, but no guts, no glory is what I say.

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05-15-2012, 10:40 AM
  #373
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
The problem is that you might be able to get a guy that has more upside than Staal at #3 while costing less in salary.
Who really cares about salary, when cap hit is the restrictive part of a contract structure? I'm assuming you haven't checked out the cap hits other recent top 3 draft picks, because if you had you'd notice that they have cap hits over $3 million anyway.

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05-15-2012, 10:48 AM
  #374
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Who really cares about salary, when cap hit is the restrictive part of a contract structure? I'm assuming you haven't checked out the cap hits other recent top 3 draft picks, because if you had you'd notice that they have cap hits over $3 million anyway.
That was just last year because the CBA was in it's last year.

In a normal year you only count base salary and bonuses get added in...or moved to the following year...and if a player reaches those bonuses usually he has a big year(ROY All-rookie 60+ points etc) as they are not weak bonues.

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05-15-2012, 10:56 AM
  #375
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
That was just last year because the CBA was in it's last year.

In a normal year you only count base salary and bonuses get added in...or moved to the following year...and if a player reaches those bonuses usually he has a big year(ROY All-rookie 60+ points etc) as they are not weak bonues.
2008 #3 Zach Bogosian: $2.5 million cap hit ELC
2009 #3 Matt Duchene: $3.2 million cap hit ELC
2010 #3 Eric Gudbranson: #3.2 million cap hit ELC
2011 #3 Jonathan Huberdeau: $3.225 million cap hit ELC

Regardless of what happens during the season, the team has to build the organization in the preceding off season (i.e. the period we're entering now and discussing) with these cap hits in mind. And if the cap goes up, this "minimum" cap hit for top 3 picks can go up accordingly. Players already signed to contracts do not get scaled up accordingly. Something else to keep in mind.

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