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Would you take Carle back?

View Poll Results: Would you like to re-sign carle?
Yes 38 23.60%
No 123 76.40%
Voters: 161. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-16-2012, 05:46 PM
  #226
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Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
I'm sure that those stats are affected by bringing the puck into the zone, only to have some ignoramus screw it up. But I imagine that would affect every defenseman nearly equally...and if that sort of thing is happening more often to certain defensemen, I'd start to think that something is wrong with them (for not keeping it in the zone, or something). If there's a metric that measures that, I haven't found it.
No I'm talking about Carle making turnovers and breakout passes that miss because of him, not because of someone else screwing it up. My point was that he's willing to try and is more capable of making those types of plays than someone like Coburn or Grossmann.

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05-16-2012, 05:47 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
Comparing two players with similar amounts of shifts. Carle and Coburn. Carle finished in the def zone 8 more times then Coburn did over the course of the Season. So that makes Coburn a better puck mover then Carle?
No, but it makes them look fairly equal. Does that mean Coburn is a great puck mover?

Edit: using these stats to determine puck moving ability is probably foolish, but they can be used to see the end results of their efforts while on the ice.

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Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
No I'm talking about Carle making turnovers and breakout passes that miss because of him, not because of someone else screwing it up. My point was that he's willing to try and is more capable of making those types of plays than someone like Coburn or Grossmann.
I see what you mean. Yeah, his homerun passes pay off sometimes, but not always. The other two seem to go with the safer play.

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05-16-2012, 05:50 PM
  #228
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Of defensemen who played at least 40 games with the Flyers, only Bourdon finished in the offensive zone more than he started. Grossmann and Kubina both did as well.

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05-16-2012, 05:53 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
No, but it makes them look fairly equal. Does that mean Coburn is a great puck mover?

Edit: using these stats to determine puck moving ability is probably foolish, but they can be used to see the end results of their efforts while on the ice.



I see what you mean. Yeah, his homerun passes pay off sometimes, but not always. The other two seem to go with the safer play.
No, I didn't say it did make Coburn a great puck mover. Coburn and Carle are fairly equal as players. They are just two different types of players.

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05-16-2012, 06:13 PM
  #230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
Carle finished in the defensive zone more than any other defenseman (increased ice time likely bumps up that number a bit, though). He finished less often in the offensive zone (percentage-wise) than Timonen, Coburn, and Mez. He did better than Lilja and GrossmannNn there..
Carle had tougher zone starts than Timonen, Coburn, and Mez.

Carle started in the offensive zone 49.5% of the time and finished there 47.5%. So he was -2.

Coburn started in the offensive zone 50.2% of the time and finished there 48.3%
He was -1.9.

Meszaros started in the offensive zone 52.0% of the time and finished there 49.2%. He was -2.8.

Timonen started in the offensive zone 53.6% of the time and finished there 50.9. He was -2.7

Grossmann was the only one of our top 5 defenders to finish offensive zone more often than he started there.

Carle had the 2nd toughest zone starts out of those 5 (Grossmann had it tougher), and faced the third toughest competition. I'd say he did pretty well. ETA: He also had the 2nd best Corsi.

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05-16-2012, 06:26 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Carle had tougher zone starts than Timonen, Coburn, and Mez.

Carle started in the offensive zone 49.5% of the time and finished there 47.5%. So he was -2.

Coburn started in the offensive zone 50.2% of the time and finished there 48.3%
He was -1.9.

Meszaros started in the offensive zone 52.0% of the time and finished there 49.2%. He was -2.8.

Timonen started in the offensive zone 53.6% of the time and finished there 50.9. He was -2.7

Grossmann was the only one of our top 5 defenders to finish offensive zone more often than he started there.

Carle had the 2nd toughest zone starts out of those 5 (Grossmann had it tougher), and faced the third toughest competition. I'd say he did pretty well. ETA: He also had the 2nd best Corsi.
That's one of the biggest problems with Advanced stats. Figuring out what they mean. I can't say I understand them fully. I guess you have to spend some time to fully understand them.

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05-16-2012, 06:44 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
That's one of the biggest problems with Advanced stats. Figuring out what they mean. I can't say I understand them fully. I guess you have to spend some time to fully understand them.
Especially in hockey. I like them a lot for baseball and basketball but hockey just has too many variables. Same with football.

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05-16-2012, 06:48 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
That's one of the biggest problems with Advanced stats. Figuring out what they mean. I can't say I understand them fully. I guess you have to spend some time to fully understand them.
Or if you're me, you can always set up your window so you can see all the columns at once. Which I didn't do. I completely missed what he posted while shuffling back and forth.

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05-16-2012, 06:56 PM
  #234
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That's one of the biggest problems with Advanced stats. Figuring out what they mean. I can't say I understand them fully. I guess you have to spend some time to fully understand them.
It takes a while to get the hang of them, but once you do they make a ton of sense.

Advanced stats show Carle is a very good defenseman. A lot of people think he sucks because he is turnover prone, but a lot of people don't realize that giveaways are blown out of proportion much like Carter's missed shots.

Here is a good read on hockey's real time stats and why they aren't that useful:

http://www.pensburgh.com/2010/7/29/1...ats-and-hockey

Quote:
With that out of the way, the first conclusion is pretty simple: hits, giveaways, and takeaways have no relationship to winning.
Here's another short and simpler read:
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/0...useless-right/
Quote:
But when you look at giveaways, think about it: whoever gets a lot of ice time has way more opportunity to turn the puck over than someone who doesn’t play much. As proof of that, among the top-10 guys with the most giveaways, you can find names like Kovalchuk, Thornton, Getzlaf, Kessel, Spezza and Yandle.

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05-16-2012, 07:11 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
That's one of the biggest problems with Advanced stats. Figuring out what they mean. I can't say I understand them fully. I guess you have to spend some time to fully understand them.
Patience is key. It's like grade school. One or two things at a time. It's easy to be how I used to be and say "this is a bunch of numbers sorted by strange letters, numbers, and slashes."

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05-16-2012, 07:49 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
Never been on Hockeybuzz. Do you have anything relevant to contribute?
Quote:
Originally Posted by VanSciver
So go talk to the guy who posted that on another website. LOL


Really now? This is how you're playing this?

If this were true, that would mean that there's some other person out there that posts on Hockeybuzz, who:

-Notoriously overrates Matt Carle (and Andreas Nodl)


Last edited by SnS: 05-16-2012 at 08:12 PM.
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05-16-2012, 08:05 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
Really now? This is how you're playing this?

If this were true, that would mean that there's some other person out there that posts on Hockeybuzz, who:

-Notoriously overrates Matt Carle (and Andreas Nodl)
I'm available at any time to discuss how I overrate Matt Carle. Also feel free to show me where I've discussed Nodl. And we can discuss that also.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
It takes a while to get the hang of them, but once you do they make a ton of sense.

Advanced stats show Carle is a very good defenseman. A lot of people think he sucks because he is turnover prone, but a lot of people don't realize that giveaways are blown out of proportion much like Carter's missed shots.

Here is a good read on hockey's real time stats and why they aren't that useful:

http://www.pensburgh.com/2010/7/29/1...ats-and-hockey



Here's another short and simpler read:
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/0...useless-right/
I think you do have to take into account that there is a human element to these stats. That what's a giveaway in one building, isn't in another. It's definitely subjective. But I don't agree that they're useless. They have some value in getting a view of a player. For instance, we know that Carle is not an overly physical player. And his hit totals confirm that. Same with a defenseman such as Lidstrom.


Last edited by VanSciver: 05-16-2012 at 08:15 PM.
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05-16-2012, 08:46 PM
  #238
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I disagree that Suter is the type of player that you should sign to a long term front loaded deal to lower the Cap hit. Not saying that he can't or won't get that type of deal. Because is he goes to Free Agency, teams will be bidding over him. As he is the best available UFA defenseman. I disagree that Suter is significantly better defensively. They are comparable. Suter is a little bigger, and I would give him the edge physically over Carle. Carle does not have problems with bigger forwards down low. For a smaller defenseman, he handles that quite well. But Carle is not a physical force by any means. And he makes some mistakes like any player, but they are rare. He is very consistent in his own end.
Carle is without a doubt a #2 NHL defenseman. He is a better all round player then Coburn is. I think it's a stretch to label Suter a #1. More like a very good #2.

I agree 100% that the Flyers need a big shot for the point. And that Suter upgrades the Flyers in that area.


I get the sense you don't see Suter play too often. Suter can do everything Matt Carle can do, but do them better, in some cases much better. A big distinction that makes Suter better defensively is his physical game. It makes him a harder guy to go against coming over the blueline, against the boards and in front of the net. Carle's go-to play when defending against a guy coming into the zone is to maintain a gap and put on a stickcheck...he's pretty good at it and he likely get's a lot of his blocked shots from doing this...but what the stats don't show, however, are the times Carle seems to get overmatched against stronger/faster players that can deke around his stick and and/or take advantage of the gap he leaves to fire a shot (using him as a screen -- think Eager's goal in the finals a while back). Suter has a deft stick but also can follow through with the body when necessary to close the gap and take that player off the puck and/or pin him against the boards...down low Suter's more apt to battle against those trying to establish position rather than let them in there and just position and stick-guard them like Carle seems to do. By the way, even a rookie like Bourdon is better in the aforementioned physical aspects (defensively) than Carle.

Offensively, Carle can start the break out from behind the net but he seems to lack confidence and decisiveness at times, which makes him prone to errors with the puck deep in his own zone. He's a decent outlet passer but sometimes takes too much risk or just has a brain fart and turns the puck over. He doesn't seem inclined to skate the puck up the ice to start the rush when given space to do so, like many of the better guys in the league (like Suter, Timonen etc.) can do. Carle is good at pinching in and helping to apply pressure within in the offensive zone, but his play from the point is relatively poor. His decision making is questionable and his shot lacks power and accuracy, if it even gets through...he often shoots right into the shinpads of the defending player, which can lead to dangerous bounces the other way. Suter brings that same ability to pinch and contribute offensively but is much better at the point in terms of his shot and keeping the puck in the zone.

The difference between Suter and Carle on the PP is like night and day Suter can QB a powerplay (something Carle can't seem to do)...his decision making, skating and shot make him noticeably more dynamic than Carle with the man advantage. While it is true that Suter scored no more than Carle's 3 goals this season, keep in mind, in most cases he's setting up Weber for his world class shot. Suter's 25 powerplay points (3rd in the NHL) more than doubles Carle's 12 pt total (good for 28th).

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...scoringLeaders

As far as where these guys should be played and paid...I think it's hardly "a stretch" to say that Suter is/can be a #1 D man. Shea Weber is a borderline generational type talent who brings the total package, and even so, Suter plays more minutes than him (3rd highest in the league)...that should tell you all you need to know about Suter's role and value.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...Name=timeOnIce

Carle will never be a #1. I question his ability to anchor a top 4 pairing. I think he's a complementary player best suited for playing moderate minutes (20-24) with someone who can handle certain duties better than he...so, I think he can be a decent #2 and/or a very good #4. I think fair value on a deal for him is about $4.5 mil...if his demands are for more, I would be hard pressed to give it to him. Suter if available, is worth around 6.25 million (coincidentally, around what Timonen makes). If it came down to taking one or the other, I take Suter at $6.25 (cap hit) every day of the week and twice on Sundays.


Last edited by fauxflex: 05-16-2012 at 08:53 PM.
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05-16-2012, 09:17 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
Suter can do everything Matt Carle can do, but do them better, in some cases much better. A big distinction that makes Suter better defensively is his physical game. It makes him a harder guy to go against coming over the blueline, against the boards and in front of the net. Carle's go-to play when defending against a guy coming into the zone is to maintain a gap and put on a stickcheck...he's pretty good at it and he likely get's a lot of his blocked shots from doing this...but what the stats don't show, however, are the times Carle seems to get overmatched against stronger/faster players that can deke around his stick and and/or take advantage of the gap he leaves to fire a shot (using him as a screen). Suter has a deft stick but also can follow through with the body when necessary to close the gap and take that player off the puck and/or pin him against the boards...down low Suter's more apt to battle against those trying to establish position rather than let them in there and just position and stick-guard them like Carle seems to do. By the way, even a rookie like Bourdon is better in the aforementioned physical aspects (defensively) than Carle.
No, Suter is not better in everything over Carle. Carle is a better point producer at Even Strength. And he is also an equal defensively to Suter. Neither Suter nor Carle are physical players. Carle is solid using body position and leverage down low. He's not a player who is going to eliminate people off the puck physically. But neither is Suter. Carle for a smaller defenseman wins a lot of puck battles. And Suter isn't significantly better there. Carle is not overmatched by faster or stronger players. If he was, he wouldn't be used for 23-25 minutes a a game. Carle is also a much, much better shot blocker then Suter is. Carle racks up a lot of blocked shots due to his sound positional play, and his ability to correctly read and anticipate plays in the defensive zone.

By the way, Bourdon is no where near the caliber of defenseman that Carle is. And in making that statement, it shows a clear bias towards Carle. Any credible analysis of Carle would not include a comment such as that.

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Offensively, Carle can start the break out from behind the net but he seems to lack confidence and decisiveness at times, which makes him prone to errors with the puck deep in his own zone. He's a decent outlet passer but sometimes takes too much risk or just has a brain fart and turns the puck over. He doesn't seem inclined to skate the puck up the ice to start the rush when given space to do so, like many of the better guys in the league (like Suter, Timonen etc.) can do. Carle is good at pinching in and helping to apply pressure within in the offensive zone, but his play from the point is relatively poor. His decision making is questionable and his shot lacks power and accuracy, if it even gets through...he often shoots right into the shinpads of the defending player, which can lead to dangerous bounces the other way. Suter brings that same ability to pinch and contribute offensively but is much better at the point in terms of his shot and keeping the puck in the zone.
No question that Suter is a better point man and has a better shot then Carle does. That's really the biggest difference between the two players. I disagree completely that Carle lacks confidence or decisiveness with the puck. That couldn't be further from the truth. In fact if anything Carle is too confident. As in especially earlier in his Flyers career he would attempt low percentage high risk plays on his breakouts. he has improved immensely in that area in the last few years. Carle is very effective puck mover from the back end. That's the reason why he is one of the top Even Strength point producers from the back end in the NHL. Even leading the NHL in ES points for defenseman in 10/11. You really don't want your defenseman skating the puck up ice when a good outlet pass is available. It's much faster and more efficient. And has a better chance to catch the opposition in an odd man rush then skating it up. And a defenseman is more dangerous coming late on the play. You take the defenseman rushing when it's available. But a turnover in the neutral zone and a defenseman in caught. Much more preferable to have your team moving up ice as a 5 man unit.

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The difference between Suter and Carle on the PP is like night and day Suter can QB a powerplay (something Carle can't seem to do)...his decision making, skating and shot make him noticeably more dynamic that Carle with the man advantage. While it is true that Suter scored no more than Carle's 3 goals this season, keep in mind, in most cases he's setting up Weber for his world class shot. Suter's 25 powerplay points (3rd in the NHL) more than doubles Carle's 12 pt total (good for 28th).
No question that Suter is a better PP point man then Carle is. And Suter has a better shot and is a better goal scorer. And although Carle is effective handling the puck on the PP. He is not a player I would look to to QB the PP on a #1 unit. But he can be a compliment to a #1 or on a 2nd unit. And your analysis of Suter's PP point total falls short. You failed to look at minutes played on the PP. Or that Carle spent most of his time on the 2nd unit. While Suter plays on the 1st unit, and plays with Weber. Carle's PP point totals for a guy who play less minutes there then a lot of other D men, and on the 2nd unit. Is very good. We can discuss this in depth if need be.

Suter plays next to Weber on the PP. Weber led all NHL defenseman in PP goals with 10. Are you telling me that Carle with his excellent passing ability couldn't set up Weber. That Carle's PP point totals wouldn't increase if he as playing on the PP next to Weber? Who is the cannon shot on the point for the Flyers that Carle plays with?

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As far as where these guys should be played and paid...I think it's hardly "a stretch" to say that Suter is/can be a #1 D man. Shea Weber is a borderline generational type talent who brings the total package, and even so, Suter plays more minutes than him (3rd highest in the league)...that should tell you all you need to know about Suter's role and value.
It may not be a stretch. But Suter is not a clear cut #1. He is not physical, nor is he considered a shutdown defender. He is closer to a #1 then Carle is. Due to his ability to QB the PP. Suter is a very good player. But he is not significantly better then Carle overall. But he will be paid like a #1. And that is what gives pause to if it would be a good move to make that commitment. Also Nashville doesn't have the defensive depth that the Flyers have. If they did, Suter might play less. Another area where your analysis falls short looking at all the factors.

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Carle will never be a #1. I question his ability to anchor a top 4 pairing. I think he's a complementary player best suited for playing with someone who can handle certain duties better than he...so, I think he can be a decent #2 and/or a very good #4. I think fair value on a deal for him is about $4.5 mil...if his demands are for more, I would be hard pressed to give it to him. Suter if available, is worth around 6.25 million (coincidentally, around what Timonen makes). If it came down to taking one or the other, I take Suter at $6.25 (cap hit) every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
No, Carle is never going to be a #1. There isn't anyone who thinks he will be. But Carle played a lot of the year with a Rookie in Bourdon. So the Flyers staff disagrees with you that he can't anchor a pair. Carle is a definite #2 NHL defenseman. He is a point producer who plays top minutes on his team. And can play in all situations. You didn't give any reason why you think 4.5M is a fair deal. So that analysis fails short.

When dealing with Suter. Are you talking salary or Cap hit? Because looking at past and recent deals for top defenseman. He's going to make a lot more then 6.25M salary a year. So to get that kind of Cap hit might take a liong term deal front loaded with low years on the back end. I wouldn't make that commitment to Suter.


Last edited by VanSciver: 05-16-2012 at 10:10 PM.
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05-16-2012, 09:37 PM
  #240
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*sigh* they are probably going to resign carl to like 4.5 mil a season or something.

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05-16-2012, 09:39 PM
  #241
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*sigh* they are probably going to resign carl to like 4.5 mil a season or something.
Holmgren said carlles demands were reasonable, to me that Isnt that reasonable

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05-16-2012, 09:57 PM
  #242
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Don't want Suter at 7.

Really don't want Carle at 5.

Do want Garrison at ~4, and the extra million thrown to a #6 D such as Salo.

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05-16-2012, 10:03 PM
  #243
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Holmgren said carlles demands were reasonable, to me that Isnt that reasonable
Why isn't it reasonable?

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05-16-2012, 10:17 PM
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Why isn't it reasonable?
Because that's close to open market value, if he wants more then 4.2 tell him to walk, you can do better with the money and make a more solidifyed d unit as a whole with that money

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05-16-2012, 11:39 PM
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Because that's close to open market value, if he wants more then 4.2 tell him to walk, you can do better with the money and make a more solidifyed d unit as a whole with that money
Agreed. It's gotta be 4 or under...

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05-16-2012, 11:47 PM
  #246
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No, Suter is not better in everything over Carle. Carle is a better point producer at Even Strength. And he is also an equal defensively to Suter. Neither Suter nor Carle are physical players. Carle is solid using body position and leverage down low. He's not a player who is going to eliminate people off the puck physically. But neither is Suter. Carle for a smaller defenseman wins a lot of puck battles. And Suter isn't significantly better there. Carle is not overmatched by faster or stronger players. If he was, he wouldn't be used for 23-25 minutes a a game. Carle is also a much, much better shot blocker then Suter is. Carle racks up a lot of blocked shots due to his sound positional play, and his ability to correctly read and anticipate plays in the defensive zone.
How often have you actually watched Preds games? I probably saw about 25-30 Pred games this season.

Suter is absolutley more physical than Carle, in the ways I mentioned. It seems to me you are merely looking at subjective statistics (things like "hits") in making most of your conclusions about Suter. He's not a guy who goes out of his way to line someone up for "the big hit", one that's necessarily going to show up in the stats, but rather, he knows how to use his body if the stick check doesn't work to leverage guys off the puck and to battle physically on the backcheck when needed, much moreso than Carle.

Watch this example:

http://video.predators.nhl.com/video...21&event=NSH83


Notice how Suter gets the good stickcheck there to separate the puck from Filppula as he enters the zone, before riding him into the back boards, finishing his check and physically taking him off the puck/play. This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. I could see Carle making that first part of the play (the stickcheck) on Filppula, but not the second part (the body check)...Detroit would more likely have gained posession there if it was Carle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
By the way, Bourdon is no where near the caliber of defenseman that Carle is. And in making that statement, it shows a clear bias towards Carle. Any credible analysis of Carle would not include a comment such as that.
I never said he was (I take it comprehension is not your strong suit)...my statement, in context, was basically that Bourdon, a rookie, was better in those same physical aspects I was talking about in that paragraph about Suter (being able to body up to neutralize an oncoming attacker when necessary and battling guys more physically than Carle in front of the net and on the backcheck in general).

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
No question that Suter is a better point man and has a better shot then Carle does. That's really the biggest difference between the two players.I disagree completely that Carle lacks confidence or decisiveness with the puck. That couldn't be further from the truth. In fact if anything Carle is too confident. As in especially earlier in his Flyers career he would attempt low percentage high risk plays on his breakouts. he has improved immensely in that area in the last few years.
I see Carle out there sometimes behind the net and he looks confused sometimes...and his various gaffes with the puck deep in his own end seem to lend credence to that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
Carle is very effective puck mover from the back end. That's the reason why he is one of the top Even Strength point producers from the back end in the NHL. Even leading the NHL in ES points for defenseman in 10/11.
Well, that was then, this is now...Flyers have a high scoring team and Carle gets minutes so yeah he'll pick up some points... Carle was 17th in the league in (D men) points per 60 mins on ice this season. Not bad, but not better than some others on the team, like say, Meszaros, who was 3rd in the league behind Karlsson and Letang or Timonen, who was 10th.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...+4+6+7+8+20+10


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
You really don't want your defenseman skating the puck up ice when a good outlet pass is available. It's much faster and more efficient. And has a better chance to catch the opposition in an odd man rush then skating it up.
Agreed, but there are times when the good outlet isn't there, and room is there to skate out with it or maybe use the net to separate form a pressuring forechecker then skate it out to start the rush leaving that guy behind... it can be advantageous there as it pressures the opposing team and opens up passing lanes. At times it seems like Carle is too stationary in starting the break, that's what I mean kind of tentative and always looking to pass it off to the D partner or maybe make a little higher risk pass attempt...if the other team is covering up all the passing lanes, they're probably leaving you room...you gotta bring it out sometimes if you're in that role imo. The league's better puck moving defensemen seem to be able to do this with aplomb. See: Timonen, Kimmo. I'm not going to say that Carle never does it, but it seems relatively rare that he endeavors to carry the puck up ice...to me that's a limitation..and given that he skates well and I've seen him be able to do it to good effect, it lends further credence to that lack of confidence feeling I see when I watch him sometimes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
And a defenseman is more dangerous coming late on the play. You take the defenseman rushing when it's available.
Exactly...and I'm saying Carle tends not to take that when available.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
Your analysis of Suter's PP point total falls short. You failed to look at minutes played on the PP. Or that Carle spent most of his time on the 2nd unit. While Suter plays on the 1st unit, and plays with Weber. Carle's PP point totals for a guy who play less minutes there then a lot of other D men, and on the 2nd unit. Is very good. We can discuss this in depth if need be.
Oh, I didn't fail to look at minutes played...even if you adjust for that, Suter had 4.44 pts per 60 powerplay minutes on ice vs. Carle's 3.05 pts per 60 powerplay minutes on ice...making Suter 45% more productive with his powerplay time than Carle was with his.

Carle
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...+4+6+7+8+20+10

Suter
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...+4+6+7+8+20+10



Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
Suter plays next to Weber on the PP. Weber led all NHL defenseman in PP goals with 10. Are you telling me that Carle with his excellent passing ability couldn't set up Weber. That Carle's PP point totals wouldn't increase if he as playing on the PP next to Weber? Who is the cannon shot on the point for the Flyers that Carle plays with?
Carle also plays on one of the most potent scoring teams in the leauge with the likes of the "elite" Claude Giroux and Hartnell, who I believe was the league leader in PP goals. Shoot, I could probably put 12 poweplay points if given Carle's pp time with that kind of talent to cover my ineptitude...also Carle played with Pronger on the PP at times, and he has a cannon, but that didn't seem to help him much on the PP production.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
It may not be a stretch. But Suter is not a clear cut #1.
Again...3rd IN THE NHL IN MINUTES...MORE THAN WEBER...how is that not a clear cut #1 on many teams, including the Flyers (sans Progner)? What do you have to say about the minutes factor...isn't that a pretty strong indicator?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
He is not physical, nor is he considered a shutdown defender.
Again, I think you must be basing this on the "Hits" statistic. How many Preds games did you see this season?


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
He is closer to a #1 then Carle is. Due to his ability to QB the PP. Suter is a very good player. But he is not significantly better then Carle overall.
Mmmmyeah, we're going to have to agree to disagree there.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
But he will be paid like a #1. And that is what gives pause to if it would be a good move to make that commitment.
Yes, Suter will get paid, but I disagree and think he is that guy you can feel comfortable making a longer term moderate cap hit deal with. I wouldn't break the bank for him, but if he can come in at between 6-6.5 cap hit, I'd strongly consider it, especially it if is versus giving Carle 5mm or anything over it. Weber I'd pay the 7.5 (cap hit) he's getting now, on a long term deal.



Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
Also Nashville doesn't have the defensive depth that the Flyers have. If they did, Suter might play less. Another area where your analysis falls short looking at all the factors.
Oh boy...well, I'm going to have to disagree here. Sans Pronger (an obvious game changer) the scale likely tilts toward the Preds on this one. Suter and Weber are as good a pairing as you'll see in the league...then you have Kevin Klein a speedy player who is solid at both ends and is coming into his prime paired with a high ceiling Swiss player Roman Josi, then veterans Hal Gill and F. Bouillon round out the bottom pairing...don't forget Ryan Ellis and Jonathon Blum, two of the top 50 prospects in the world (as ranked by HF) are being groomed into the lineup...all things considered, that's about as good a defensive group as any team in the league.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
No, Carle is never going to be a #1. There isn't anyone who thinks he will be. But Carle played a lot of the year with a Rookie in Bourdon. So the Flyers staff disagrees with you that he can't anchor a pair.
How did that go? Is that the ideal role for him? Maybe in 2-3 years when Bourdon proves himself more and gains consistency, but that pairing wasn't exactly a big winner...it's just what they had to work with at the time...ideally you don't put Carle in that spot with a rookie...maybe only on a 3rd pairing in limited minutes.

Quote:
Carle is a definite #2 NHL defenseman. He is a point producer who plays top minutes on his team. And can play in all situations. You didn't give any reason why you think 4.5M is a fair deal. So that analysis fails short.
It begs the question, if Matt Carle is your top minutes guy, how good is your defense? It's no coincidence that there are significant question marks on D now in the post Pronger era. Carle did a good job at filling a role above his head, but having to give Matt Carle top minutes isn't a good situation, unless it's say, as a support guy to a Pronger or Timonen type. If the Flyers plan to continue to play Carle as their top minute getter, I could see them paying him 5-6 million per year... but I don't think that is the plan...at least, I hope not. If they pay him it should be a decent raise for the job he's done and an eye toward having him play second pairing type minutes, which is where he should be (except perhaps playing Pronger or a Shea Weber God willing). He has shortcomings that make me uncomfortable paying him a premium deal of the type that he could possibly garner in the open market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJL
When dealing with Suter. Are you talking salary or Cap hit? Because looking at past and recent deals for top defenseman. He's going to make a lot more then 6.25M salary a year. So to get that kind of Cap hit might take a liong term deal front loaded with low years on the back end. I wouldn't make that commitment to Suter.
Yes, cap hit is what I generally look at for this kind of thing. I disagree with you for reasons stated, and would most likely be willing make that kind of commitment to Suter. It sounds like he wants a long term deal and given the structures we've seen in the past, I can see them working something out to get the cap hit down around that 6.25 mil area.


Last edited by fauxflex: 05-17-2012 at 12:03 AM. Reason: spelling error
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05-16-2012, 11:48 PM
  #247
TheLegendkiller
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I hope they just say no to Carle. Like seriously. No more weak wrists and terrible ass turnovers.

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05-17-2012, 03:27 AM
  #248
BillDineen
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I attached an imagine of some Dman stats quoted in this thread to see where posters place value without knowing the player (I am sure you can figure out some from knowledge).

CRQ = Corsi Rel QoC
CRel = Corsi Relative
OZA = Off Zone Starts
Bkl = Blocked Shots
Tk = Takeaways
Gv = Giveaways
ES = Even Strength
H/G, B/G, T/G, G/G = Hits, Bkl, Tk, Gv per Game

Note1: The Non-UFA player listed below, I am sure the majority would trade JVR for straight up.

Note2: Corsi Rel is the basis for Corsi Rel QoC, so if you view Corsi Rel overstating a player's quality, Corsi Rel QoC is baseless as defining quality of competition.

Note3: Corsi analysis is already selective as a basis. It treats all shots equally, whether missed or point blank from the slot and in this case is 5v5. I am sure posters can pick and choose stats on why this is this and that is that, but that is the point of this post.

(Aside: Lindstrom had a -6.9 Corsi Rel in 2010-11 but won the Norris trophy. Further, Lindstrom was 7th on the Wings in On Ice Corsi and 7th in Relative Corsi.)

Guess the contract value of each player (not including the non-UFA everyone would want)
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Corsi Image.jpg‎ (33.6 KB, 7 views)


Last edited by BillDineen: 05-17-2012 at 04:51 AM.
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Old
05-17-2012, 04:22 AM
  #249
flyerfanish
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
I attached an imagine of some Dman stats quoted in this thread to see where posters place value without knowing the player (I am sure you can figure out some from knowledge).

CRQ = Corsi Rel QoC
CRel = Corsi Relative
OZA = Off Zone Starts
Bkl = Blocked Shots
Tk = Takeaways
Gv = Giveaways
ES = Even Strength
H/G, B/G, T/G, G/G = Hits, Bkl, Tk, Gv per Game

Note1: The Non-UFA player listed below, I am sure the majority would trade JVR for straight up.

Note2: Corsi Rel is the basis for Corsi Rel QoC, so if you view Corsi Rel overstating a player's quality, Corsi Rel QoC is baseless as defining quality of competition.

Note3: Corsi analysis is already selective as a basis. It treats all shots equally, whether missed or point blank from the slot and in this case is 5v5. I am sure posters can pick and choose stats on why this is this and that is that, but that is the point of this post.

(Aside: Lindstrom had a -6.9 Corsi Rel in 2010-11 but won the Norris trophy.)

Guess the contract value of each player (not including the non-UFA everyone would want)
Must be Schenn then?

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05-17-2012, 04:26 AM
  #250
BillDineen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyerfanish View Post
Must be Schenn then?
Flyers fans, not Leafs fans.

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