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Where would the Red Wings be today had they not drafted Zetterberg and Datsyuk?

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05-21-2012, 01:19 AM
  #26
Mc5RingsAndABeer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VinnyC View Post
Teams don't draft only on their potential but also on whether they believe/know if other teams intend to take the player or are at least aware of his potential.

For instance, the Red Wings knew of Alex Edler's potential but thought that no one else knew about him (he played in a low-tier Swedish league then), except the Canucks were tipped off about him and took him in the 3rd round since they (correctly so) assumed that the only other team to know about him was Detroit and that they would use a late pick on him.
I would agree with this line of reasoning for 1st/2nd/3rd round picks, but after that it becomes a ridiculous crapshoot. No team that expects a Zetterberg/Datsyuk talent is going to risk letting some other team pick him up randomly.

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05-21-2012, 01:39 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VinnyC View Post
Teams don't draft only on their potential but also on whether they believe/know if other teams intend to take the player or are at least aware of his potential.

For instance, the Red Wings knew of Alex Edler's potential but thought that no one else knew about him (he played in a low-tier Swedish league then), except the Canucks were tipped off about him and took him in the 3rd round since they (correctly so) assumed that the only other team to know about him was Detroit and that they would use a late pick on him.
Canucks drafting Edler was a blessing for Detroit because they used that pick on Franzen who was a BEAST for the 08' cup win and clutch during the trip to the finals in 09'. I don't think DRWs win the cup without Franzen in 2008.

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05-21-2012, 01:43 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by 5RingsAndABeer View Post
I would agree with this line of reasoning for 1st/2nd/3rd round picks, but after that it becomes a ridiculous crapshoot. No team that expects a Zetterberg/Datsyuk talent is going to risk letting some other team pick him up randomly.
It is superior scouting and luck. It goes hand-in-hand. Not sure about the Zetterberg story, but Håkan Andersson was pretty high on Datsyuk and was absolutely sure nobody else knew about him. He was their "golden" pick that year, and DRWs knew it.

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05-21-2012, 08:14 AM
  #29
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what if they never even existed... what if hockey was played on water with floating shoes!

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05-21-2012, 09:16 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by HTT3 View Post
It is superior scouting and luck. It goes hand-in-hand. Not sure about the Zetterberg story, but Håkan Andersson was pretty high on Datsyuk and was absolutely sure nobody else knew about him. He was their "golden" pick that year, and DRWs knew it.
For some reason people refuse to understand that the Red Wings were 99% sure that nobody in the NHL knew of Pavel Datsyuk. Even their scout, who was the best in Europe, found out about him in a flukey way. THey weren't going to burn a high pick on him knowing that nobody would take him in the top 6 rounds. Those picks are better used picking guys that you know won't make it one round further.

Also, I believe the Red Wings wanted to draft Edler in the third then Franzen in the 4th, and when Edler got scooped up they just went with Franzen in that slot. Man if they could;ve landed both of them...

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05-21-2012, 09:30 AM
  #31
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They'd have Hossa and someone else taking that space up.

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05-21-2012, 11:38 AM
  #32
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Zetterberg is nothing special. Look at his skillsets and he really isnt great at much. Skating is avg, shot avg, vision slightly above. The one thing he has though is tenacity and hard work. Thats why he is so valuable he backchecks hard, he is hard to knock off the puck, he wins crucial face offs.... He can be relied on in all situations. Wings got lucky that Z has a hard work ethic simply put.

Datsyuk was a gamble cuz he was small, frail looking (not frail at the least bit however) and wasnt your perfect hockey player ie Lindros type. But he had everything puck possesion wise along with wit.

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05-21-2012, 01:40 PM
  #33
VinnyC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaneone View Post
Is it worth the risk? Using your example, Detroit should have drafted Edler. Instead they were wrong about them being the only one who knew of Edler and missed out.
It's a risky proposition, naturally. In the Wings/Edler example, Detroit could've traded for an early third rounder and drafted him, but maybe he doesn't develop like he did with the Canucks and ends up a #6/7 journeyman, or even a career SEL player. There are a lot of unknowns when drafting players, even when a team feels pretty good about their potential.

An example of a team "panicking" and drafting someone earlier than expected - there was buzz that the Senators were considering drafting Patrick White with the 29th overall pick, so the Canucks picked him with the 25th overall choice. Perron was picked 26th.

By the way, White is currently the leading scorer... in Germany's third tier league.

So the opportunity cost of drafting someone early for "safety" is essentially the player you would have otherwise drafted with that choice "minus" the player you choose with the pick where you expected to draft the other one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 5RingsAndABeer View Post
I would agree with this line of reasoning for 1st/2nd/3rd round picks, but after that it becomes a ridiculous crapshoot. No team that expects a Zetterberg/Datsyuk talent is going to risk letting some other team pick him up randomly.
The thing is that at the time, the Wings very likely didn't expect Datsyuk and Zetterberg to turn out the way they did. At the time they were chosen, Z wasn't seen as very talented and Datsyuk wasn't physically imposing or well scouted. For every Zetterberg or Datsyuk there are dozens of no-name late picks who never make it big or end up as grinders at best.


Last edited by VinnyC: 05-21-2012 at 01:50 PM.
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05-21-2012, 03:12 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZetterBurger View Post
For some reason people refuse to understand that the Red Wings were 99% sure that nobody in the NHL knew of Pavel Datsyuk. Even their scout, who was the best in Europe, found out about him in a flukey way. THey weren't going to burn a high pick on him knowing that nobody would take him in the top 6 rounds. Those picks are better used picking guys that you know won't make it one round further.
That doesn't even make sense. 99% sure is still not enough to risk such high talent. It was pure luck and good development.

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