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FINAL: Where does Nash end up?

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Old
05-23-2012, 01:15 PM
  #276
Mayor Bee
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Remember I said 'significant'.

Gaborik: (injured in 09-09)
2007-2008 = 42g, 41a, 83p
2009-2010 = 42g, 44a, 86p
Net gain = 0g, 3a, 3p

Heatley:
2008-2009 = 39g, 33a, 72p
2009-2010 = 39g, 43a, 82p
net gain = 0g, 10a, 10p

Brad Richards:
2010-2011 = 28g, 49a, 77p
2011-2012 = 25g, 41a, 66p
Net gain = -3g, -8a, -11p

Mike Richards: (why not, i realize it wasn't poor team to good team)
2010-2011 = 23g, 43a, 66p
2011-2012 = 18g, 26a, 44p
net gain= -5g, -17a, -22p

Thats a total net gain for that entire group of: -8g, -12a, -20p. The biggest gain by a player was Heatley with 0g, 10a, which is hardly significant enough to warrant a $3.8m salary increase.
Total goals per game, leaguewide:
2008-09 - 5.83
2009-10 - 5.68
2010-11 - 5.59
2011-12 - 5.47

The conditions around the league have changed, resulting in a depression of scoring stats around the league during this period of time.

You're also starting from an unspoken baseline that every player's role on a particular team is exactly the same, which it is not.

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05-23-2012, 01:18 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Total goals per game, leaguewide:
2008-09 - 5.83
2009-10 - 5.68
2010-11 - 5.59
2011-12 - 5.47

The conditions around the league have changed, resulting in a depression of scoring stats around the league during this period of time.

You're also starting from an unspoken baseline that every player's role on a particular team is exactly the same, which it is not.
I was directly refuting a particular claim. None of those show a significant increase, especially not a trend that could be used to support the case that Nash will likely improve his numbers. Yes league scoring is down, but at best you are talking a couple of goals per player average, that's still not significant.

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05-23-2012, 01:22 PM
  #278
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Can we both agree that Nash is certainly not worth $3.8m more than Pavelski based on their last few seasons? That's really what matters here.
I think Nash is worth it, but I also think Pavelski is signed to a sweetheart deal, and is definately the better value of the two based on stats, points and intangibles.

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05-23-2012, 01:24 PM
  #279
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It's amusing to me that Sharks fans use the declining scoring numbers to defend Marleau and yet don't do the same for Nash.

Weird eh?

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05-23-2012, 01:32 PM
  #280
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
I think Nash is worth it, but I also think Pavelski is signed to a sweetheart deal, and is definately the better value of the two based on stats, points and intangibles.
Well I would argue, that the time Nash was signed, he was a bit overpaid, and that has gotten a bit worse since. I would say he was worth around $7 based on the situation, but I also understand why Columbus did what they did, you can't lose a guy like that to free agency. It's certainly not a 'home-town discount' and that says something.

The point here is value though, sweetheart deal or not, the contract they both have is the contract they both have. Pavelski provides far more 'bang for the buck' because of that. If their salaries were closer I could see taking the risk on Nash improving making more sense, but not for $3.8m, that's just a bad bet.

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05-23-2012, 01:34 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Well I would argue, that the time Nash was signed, he was a bit overpaid, and that has gotten a bit worse since. I would say he was worth around $7 based on the situation, but I also understand why Columbus did what they did, you can't lose a guy like that to free agency. It's certainly not a 'home-town discount' and that says something.

The point here is value though, sweetheart deal or not, the contract they both have is the contract they both have. Pavelski provides far more 'bang for the buck' because of that. If their salaries were closer I could see taking the risk on Nash improving making more sense, but not for $3.8m, that's just a bad bet.
Goals per game have gone down in the league the last couple of years, why is Nash more overpaid now in light of that?

Especially since you've defended Marleau's declining numbers and said that they had more to do with declining goals across the league than anything else.


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05-23-2012, 01:53 PM
  #282
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question, when people use the dollar for point analogy are they willing to use it for all 600 plus odd players in the league or, only when it suits their POV?

ovechkin had less pts than lupul so should the caps trade ovie straight up to the leafs for lupul? I mean wouldnt they be stupid to not, or, are their pathetic ways out of that lame arguement when presented with just how uneducated that POV is?

remember it cant be both, its either yes or no.

star players get paid, period, case closed.

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05-23-2012, 02:00 PM
  #283
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Originally Posted by Zetterberg4Captain View Post
question, when people use the dollar for point analogy are they willing to use it for all 600 plus odd players in the league or, only when it suits their POV?

ovechkin had less pts than lupul so should the caps trade ovie straight up to the leafs for lupul? I mean wouldnt they be stupid to not, or, are their pathetic ways out of that lame arguement when presented with just how uneducated that POV is?

remember it cant be both, its either yes or no.

star players get paid, period, case closed.
Fantastic post. Agree completely.

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05-23-2012, 02:02 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by Zetterberg4Captain View Post
question, when people use the dollar for point analogy are they willing to use it for all 600 plus odd players in the league or, only when it suits their POV?

ovechkin had less pts than lupul so should the caps trade ovie straight up to the leafs for lupul? I mean wouldnt they be stupid to not, or, are their pathetic ways out of that lame arguement when presented with just how uneducated that POV is?

remember it cant be both, its either yes or no.

star players get paid, period, case closed.
I think you know there is a significant difference there. First off that one year alone does not a trend make. Second Ovechkin is substantially more talented than Rick Nash. Would I trade Pavelski for Ovechkin is kind of what you are getting at, and yes, of course I would. Nash does not belong in the same conversation as Ovy. They are totally different situation.

Pavelski has been surpassing Nash for two years now and their salary difference is enough that it is not worth giving up the great value we get with Pavelski for the risk of Rick Nash. I don't know how that is so tough to understand.

I'm also not saying it won't happen. It probably will, I'm just saying its stupid and I hope DW is fired for it when it turns out exactly like I am predicting.

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05-23-2012, 02:08 PM
  #285
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Call me crazy stupid here, and someone will I'm sure, but what about Pittsburgh?

Staal, Martin, Despres and a 1st for Nash.

Two insane scoring lines, Kennedy or Cooke taking the reigns of the third line center position, and moving a little salary makes Pittsburgh immeadiately more frightning.

Dupuis-Crosby-Nash and Kunitz-Malkin-Neal as the top two lines (in no particular order).

Columbus gets a top 4 defender, a top 6 (I'd stretch it to top line) center, a great prospect and a late first round pick.

This kind of thing used to be done to death, but I think it could be more likely now with Nash looking to move and Pittsburgh no longer looking at a "three center model".

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05-23-2012, 02:09 PM
  #286
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Call me crazy stupid here, and someone will I'm sure, but what about Pittsburgh?

Staal, Martin, Despres and a 1st for Nash.

Two insane scoring lines, Kennedy or Cooke taking the reigns of the third line center position, and moving a little salary makes Pittsburgh immeadiately more frightning.

Dupuis-Crosby-Nash and Kunitz-Malkin-Neal as the top two lines (in no particular order).

Columbus gets a top 4 defender, a top 6 (I'd stretch it to top line) center, a great prospect and a late first round pick.

This kind of thing used to be done to death, but I think it could be more likely now with Nash looking to move and Pittsburgh no longer looking at a "three center model".
Martin has negative trade value, and Staal could leave in a year. Doesn't really make sense from Colombus' point of view.

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05-23-2012, 02:09 PM
  #287
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I think you know there is a significant difference there. First off that one year alone does not a trend make. Second Ovechkin is substantially more talented than Rick Nash. Would I trade Pavelski for Ovechkin is kind of what you are getting at, and yes, of course I would. Nash does not belong in the same conversation as Ovy. They are totally different situation.

Pavelski has been surpassing Nash for two years now and their salary difference is enough that it is not worth giving up the great value we get with Pavelski for the risk of Rick Nash. I don't know how that is so tough to understand.

I'm also not saying it won't happen. It probably will, I'm just saying its stupid and I hope DW is fired for it when it turns out exactly like I am predicting.
again what you're doing is using an arguement to decide why you feel pavelski is worth more/better than nash because of what both players provide for their contract however when you do that, that same arguement using that same logic HAS to be applied to every player in the league otherwise its really just a biased POV and nothing more

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05-23-2012, 02:11 PM
  #288
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Hold the phone there.. Ovie is NOT that much better than Nash IMO. If nash broke into the league with a center like Backstrom and a PP qb like Green im sure his first couple years would look better.

To compare Pavelski to nash is retarded based on one simple fact. Pavelski plays sheltered offensive minutes BEHIND thorton and marleu ( i hate marleu but thats a personal thing cant argue his regular season numbers) So pavelski goes agasint 3/4 5/6 Dmen 75 % of the time. Most teams have 2 good defenders and a shut down line. Is pavelski a good player on a real nice contract yup 100 %. He is nowhere near the talent that nash is.

The problem is when you trade a talent like nash you wont ever get his value back. Its an old saying the team getting the best player wins 90 % of trades. Well nobody is moving anyone in even the same class as nash for him. So CBJ have to either fill glaring voids in there lineup or hope the couple blue chippers they get hit a higher ceiling that most think they will.

Nobody is going to give up a = player that is younger and cheaper for nash... why would they?

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05-23-2012, 02:12 PM
  #289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Call me crazy stupid here, and someone will I'm sure, but what about Pittsburgh?

Staal, Martin, Despres and a 1st for Nash.

Two insane scoring lines, Kennedy or Cooke taking the reigns of the third line center position, and moving a little salary makes Pittsburgh immeadiately more frightning.

Dupuis-Crosby-Nash and Kunitz-Malkin-Neal as the top two lines (in no particular order).

Columbus gets a top 4 defender, a top 6 (I'd stretch it to top line) center, a great prospect and a late first round pick.

This kind of thing used to be done to death, but I think it could be more likely now with Nash looking to move and Pittsburgh no longer looking at a "three center model".
I think this post-season showed that the Pens have enough firepower upfront, they should be focused on fixing/tinkering their defense for the upcoming season. Nash's cap hit is taking away from a major acquisition on the backend.

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05-23-2012, 02:17 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Zetterberg4Captain View Post
again what you're doing is using an arguement to decide why you feel pavelski is worth more/better than nash because of what both players provide for their contract however when you do that, that same arguement using that same logic HAS to be applied to every player in the league otherwise its really just a biased POV and nothing more
That sounds nice, but its not true. It doesn't take into account ELC's and RFA contracts for instance. Just because someone is on an ELC doesn't make their value less. Is Pietrangelo worth less than Campbell even though they put up around the same numbers of points just because Pietrangelo is on an ELC? That doesn't make good sense, I think any team would give up more for Pietrangelo than Campbell because of their contract status.

Lets look at the whole picture here:

1) Nash has a NTC and is severely limiting his destinations, this decreases his value. To what degree can be debated.

2) Nash has asked for a trade and his GM threw him under the bus over it. This decreases his value. To what degree can be debated.

3) Nash has one of the biggest cap hits in the league but is not producing upto that level. This decreases his value. To what degree can be debated.

4) Pavelski performs nearly identical, is better defensively, can play center or wing, and is paid almost half of what Nash is.

All I hear in your argument is "Nash's name is more sexy" but nothing that if I were a GM looking to build a better team would make me say "Yah, having Nash instead of Pavelski makes our team better".

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05-23-2012, 02:19 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by Spice Trader View Post
Hold the phone there.. Ovie is NOT that much better than Nash IMO. If nash broke into the league with a center like Backstrom and a PP qb like Green im sure his first couple years would look better.

To compare Pavelski to nash is retarded based on one simple fact. Pavelski plays sheltered offensive minutes BEHIND thorton and marleu ( i hate marleu but thats a personal thing cant argue his regular season numbers) So pavelski goes agasint 3/4 5/6 Dmen 75 % of the time. Most teams have 2 good defenders and a shut down line. Is pavelski a good player on a real nice contract yup 100 %. He is nowhere near the talent that nash is.

The problem is when you trade a talent like nash you wont ever get his value back. Its an old saying the team getting the best player wins 90 % of trades. Well nobody is moving anyone in even the same class as nash for him. So CBJ have to either fill glaring voids in there lineup or hope the couple blue chippers they get hit a higher ceiling that most think they will.

Nobody is going to give up a = player that is younger and cheaper for nash... why would they?
This is totally and verifiably untrue. Pavelski see's the top competition on the Sharks.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...2+13+14+15+16#

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05-23-2012, 02:23 PM
  #292
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Nash is not even an option for the Pens. Not with his huge contract.

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05-23-2012, 02:34 PM
  #293
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Honestly i understand you value pavelski highly. Take the homer glasses off tho please.

Nash is a world class talent that would make any team in the worlds top 6. He played a Shut down roll in probably the hardest team to crack in the world (team canada) pavelski correct me if im wrong wasnt even an outside canditate.

Nash is faster 5 inches taller 40 pounds heavier has better hands. Plays TOP line minutes his whole career and is also durrable to boot. He is a FRANCHISE player. Pavelski is a solid nhl top 6 on a nice contract. there is maybe 15-20 players like nash in the world. There is probably 200 pavelski type talents.

If it was simply paying them every team in the league would pay to have nash. The problem is CBJ is in a situation akin to bleeding in the ocean off the coast of South africa and the other GMs are circling waiting for them to sink just a little lower before they pilfer Nash away.

Nash will be moved and for far less than CBJ hopes. And if he gets to the right location and is motivated and has some help look out can this guy can flat out play hockey.

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05-23-2012, 02:48 PM
  #294
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Nash is a world class talent that would make any team in the worlds top 6. He played a Shut down roll in probably the hardest team to crack in the world (team canada) pavelski correct me if im wrong wasnt even an outside canditate.
He wasn't a candidate for Team Canada, but he did play for Team USA.

Nash has the 5th highest cap hit in he league. The Sharks are already top heavy with salary. I would be really surprised if DW trades for Nash this summer with the CBA up in the air.

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05-23-2012, 02:50 PM
  #295
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I think you know there is a significant difference there. First off that one year alone does not a trend make. Second Ovechkin is substantially more talented than Rick Nash. Would I trade Pavelski for Ovechkin is kind of what you are getting at, and yes, of course I would. Nash does not belong in the same conversation as Ovy. They are totally different situation.

Pavelski has been surpassing Nash for two years now and their salary difference is enough that it is not worth giving up the great value we get with Pavelski for the risk of Rick Nash. I don't know how that is so tough to understand.

I'm also not saying it won't happen. It probably will, I'm just saying its stupid and I hope DW is fired for it when it turns out exactly like I am predicting.
Ummmm... not really. Ovi is a defensive liability, Nash can play all three zones. Sure, Nash's point total has not been great the past couple years, but he plays for pretty much the worst team in the league.

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05-23-2012, 03:06 PM
  #296
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Honestly i understand you value pavelski highly. Take the homer glasses off tho please.

Nash is a world class talent that would make any team in the worlds top 6. He played a Shut down roll in probably the hardest team to crack in the world (team canada) pavelski correct me if im wrong wasnt even an outside canditate.

Nash is faster 5 inches taller 40 pounds heavier has better hands. Plays TOP line minutes his whole career and is also durrable to boot. He is a FRANCHISE player. Pavelski is a solid nhl top 6 on a nice contract. there is maybe 15-20 players like nash in the world. There is probably 200 pavelski type talents.

If it was simply paying them every team in the league would pay to have nash. The problem is CBJ is in a situation akin to bleeding in the ocean off the coast of South africa and the other GMs are circling waiting for them to sink just a little lower before they pilfer Nash away.

Nash will be moved and for far less than CBJ hopes. And if he gets to the right location and is motivated and has some help look out can this guy can flat out play hockey.


This! I think anyone comparing the ability of Joe Pavelski and Rick Nash in on some good stuff. If you are talking contractually then fine but as players lol. Nash by a mile.

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05-23-2012, 03:06 PM
  #297
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Remember I said 'significant'.

Gaborik: (injured in 09-09)
2007-2008 = 42g, 41a, 83p
2009-2010 = 42g, 44a, 86p
Net gain = 0g, 3a, 3p

Heatley:
2008-2009 = 39g, 33a, 72p
2009-2010 = 39g, 43a, 82p
net gain = 0g, 10a, 10p

Brad Richards:
2010-2011 = 28g, 49a, 77p
2011-2012 = 25g, 41a, 66p
Net gain = -3g, -8a, -11p

Mike Richards: (why not, i realize it wasn't poor team to good team)
2010-2011 = 23g, 43a, 66p
2011-2012 = 18g, 26a, 44p
net gain= -5g, -17a, -22p

Thats a total net gain for that entire group of: -8g, -12a, -20p. The biggest gain by a player was Heatley with 0g, 10a, which is hardly significant enough to warrant a $3.8m salary increase.
10 points is a significant amount when you are already scoring in the 70+ range. And look at Brad Richards when he changed teams in his prime years going from TB to DAL. His years in Dallas were .15-2PPG above his career average.

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05-23-2012, 03:08 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by Spice Trader View Post
Honestly i understand you value pavelski highly. Take the homer glasses off tho please.

Nash is a world class talent that would make any team in the worlds top 6. He played a Shut down roll in probably the hardest team to crack in the world (team canada) pavelski correct me if im wrong wasnt even an outside canditate.

Nash is faster 5 inches taller 40 pounds heavier has better hands. Plays TOP line minutes his whole career and is also durrable to boot. He is a FRANCHISE player. Pavelski is a solid nhl top 6 on a nice contract. there is maybe 15-20 players like nash in the world. There is probably 200 pavelski type talents.

If it was simply paying them every team in the league would pay to have nash. The problem is CBJ is in a situation akin to bleeding in the ocean off the coast of South africa and the other GMs are circling waiting for them to sink just a little lower before they pilfer Nash away.

Nash will be moved and for far less than CBJ hopes. And if he gets to the right location and is motivated and has some help look out can this guy can flat out play hockey.
As stated, Pavelski played for Team USA which made the finals and gave Team Canada a hell of a challenge. There are not 200 players comparable to Pavelski, that's flat out wrong.

He will be moved for less, but if they manage to get Pavelski out of the Sharks I think they should be thrilled because the Sharks just got jobbed.


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Ummmm... not really. Ovi is a defensive liability, Nash can play all three zones. Sure, Nash's point total has not been great the past couple years, but he plays for pretty much the worst team in the league.
Ovechkin's best season: 65g, 47a, 112p
Nash's best season: 40g, 39a, 79p

So Pavelski and Nash are 'absurd' to compare, but Ovechkin and Nash are a fair comparison?

Give me a break.

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05-23-2012, 03:10 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
10 points is a significant amount when you are already scoring in the 70+ range. And look at Brad Richards when he changed teams in his prime years going from TB to DAL. His years in Dallas were .15-2PPG above his career average.
Is 10a worth $3.8m when you are talking about a goal scorer? So we should be happy if we get Nash an he puts up 71p next season instead of Pavelski's 65 at half the price?

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05-23-2012, 03:11 PM
  #300
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Pavelski plays sheltered offensive minutes BEHIND thorton and marleu ( i hate marleu but thats a personal thing cant argue his regular season numbers) So pavelski goes agasint 3/4 5/6 Dmen 75 % of the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spice Trader View Post
Nash is a world class talent that would make any team in the worlds top 6. He played a Shut down roll in probably the hardest team to crack in the world (team canada) pavelski correct me if im wrong wasnt even an outside canditate.
You're on fire with these crazy misconceptions, got any more?

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