it works both ways.. just because couturier was on a team with alot more depth doesnt give him an edge. with so much talent up front he was stuck with 4th line and top pk minutes, if he was on the jets and getting 2nd line minutes like burmi was we would of have him contending for a calder.. couturier played 14 min a game almost half of that every night on the pk... burmi played 16 min 2nd to only Little which indicates mostly 2nd line ice time. offensive ice time. there roles were not even close to identical.. burmi was actually put in a position to get more points and start scoring.. couterier was not.. and also burmi was a +4 couturier was a + 18 ( give or take) while playing on the pk.... not to mention couturier has 20 pounds plus on him.. burmi will be along the likes of a Jim Slater, and other great 3rd liners most likely.. Couturier will be up their with Mike Richards, Dustin browns, and other top 6 players who are just as good defensivly as there 50 to 60 points ( gems i think we call them )
Seriously dude, capital letters and paragraphs, please.
Couturier was a +18 on a team that was +32, Burmi was a +4 on a team that was -21. Are you saying that Couturier would have doubled his point totals playing 2 extra minute per game?
Would is be possible to now shelve the Couturier discussion here? I mean, I'm sure many on the Flyers board would love to talk further about Couturier, but frankly, Scheifele and Burmistrov will make their own bones in the league and it will have exactly nothing to do with Couturier. Scheifele's career in fact will be based upon how he performs going forward, not on a comparison to how another draft pick performed at 18 years of age.
Getting back to the thread topic, I can't help but think that some of you are possibly missing the boat when you post up rosters for next season that are (by and large) near static to last year. All of the expiring contracts combined with a complete lack of any re-signings suggests that perhaps a partial roster purge may be pending. Just because the team has preached patience, building through the draft, etc, does not necessarily mean that trades and potential major changes aren't coming. Chevy has said he is open to trading picks (even #9 overall) and players as well if it improves the future.
it works both ways.. just because couturier was on a team with alot more depth doesnt give him an edge. with so much talent up front he was stuck with 4th line and top pk minutes, if he was on the jets and getting 2nd line minutes like burmi was we would of have him contending for a calder.. couturier played 14 min a game almost half of that every night on the pk... burmi played 16 min 2nd to only Little which indicates mostly 2nd line ice time. offensive ice time. there roles were not even close to identical.. burmi was actually put in a position to get more points and start scoring.. couterier was not.. and also burmi was a +4 couturier was a + 18 ( give or take) while playing on the pk.... not to mention couturier has 20 pounds plus on him.. [B]burmi will be along the likes of a Jim Slater, and other great 3rd liners most likely.. Couturier will be up their with Mike Richards, Dustin browns, and other top 6 players who are just as good defensivly as there 50 to 60 points [/B]( gems i think we call them )
1st B: what does that mean? Where did you get these numbers. if couturier was +18 on the pk that means he was a 0 at 5 on 5 (as he was a +18 overall).
if your going to use stats, use actual stats, don't make them up.
2nd B: i stated that earlier that he was considerably bigger. no argument.
3rd. please argue this to me. You've stated it. back it up. what's your facts. comparativ enumbers? career performance of most 50-60 point players in their rookie seasons? You've stated it, back it up, something you've refused to do so far.
And why jim slater? where the hells is that coming from? you've essentially, AGAIN, just said, Burmistrov will not develope. He is jim slater now and never will be anything better. Sean couturier will develope. He is jim slater now and will be mike richards. there is nothing to peg that claim to beyond personal fancy.
lets explain it this way.
I have 2 paper bags, ones red and ones green. each has an orange inside it of a very similar weight, consistency and shape. I tell you to hold the bags, without looking inside, and tell me which orange is better.
There is no possible way for you to know which orange is better.
you do not have enough information to logically arrive at the answer.
you may have an arbitrary favoring of red vs green which will cause to choose one but the available information creates a situation where the only way to arrive at an answer is through completely arbitrary reasoning.
that is what you are doing.
none of us arguing that one players better then the other, were arguing that their is not a rational way to make a definitive statement on the topic where one is pegged better. they have performed nearly identically. The oranges are still in the bag!
it works both ways.. just because couturier was on a team with alot more depth doesnt give him an edge. with so much talent up front he was stuck with 4th line and top pk minutes, if he was on the jets and getting 2nd line minutes like burmi was we would of have him contending for a calder.. couturier played 14 min a game almost half of that every night on the pk... burmi played 16 min 2nd to only Little which indicates mostly 2nd line ice time. offensive ice time. there roles were not even close to identical.. burmi was actually put in a position to get more points and start scoring.. couterier was not.. and also burmi was a +4 couturier was a + 18 ( give or take) while playing on the pk.... not to mention couturier has 20 pounds plus on him.. burmi will be along the likes of a Jim Slater, and other great 3rd liners most likely.. Couturier will be up their with Mike Richards, Dustin browns, and other top 6 players who are just as good defensivly as there 50 to 60 points ( gems i think we call them )
Couturier averaged 14:08 a game total and 2:41 in PK time. Is 2:41 half of 14:08 now?
And Burmistrov didn't really get 2nd line ice time until closer to the end of the season. He was moved around all over the place before that.
So yes, their roles were close to the same.
I don't buy your premise that Burmistrov was put in a position to score while Couturier was not. Both were mainly on the 3rd line and played on the PK. While Burmistrov did get time on the 2nd at the end of the year, Couturier had the better linemates over the course of the season. Couturier was on a better team, with better linemates, and in a better situation. Do you really think that Burmistrov was in a better situation than Couturier?
+/- ? The PK doesn't affect +/- so the fact that Couturier played on the PK more means the +18 to +4 advantage while nice, has no additional value because he played more PK. It certainly means less to me than the fact that the Flyers as a team were +27 and the Jets were -8.
Sorry if I don't agree with you that Burmistrov is going to be Slater now, and Couturier is going to be Mike Richards. If we are going by your "what have you shown me" method, all either has shown is that they can be 3rd line players.
I was under the impression that we were basing our opinions of the players on how they performed so far in their career. I am not saying anything that could or wont happen.
I ment he was a +18 while playing alot more pk minutes then Burmi. As well as 4th line minutes compared to 2nd. There is no reason to say Couturier couldnt be our 2nd line center all year next year. Burmi i dont have half the confidence.
Sorry about the grammer before guys, I was being lazy. It was probably hard to read
Getting back to the thread topic, I can't help but think that some of you are possibly missing the boat when you post up rosters for next season that are (by and large) near static to last year.
See, I sort of expect this upcoming season's roster to be fairly close to last year's -- my guess is 2013-14 is the year things REALLY change. Scheifele will likely be up full-time then, Antropov, Hainsey and Miettinen (difficult-to-move contracts that likely don't fit into the long-term plan) will be gone as UFAs or traded as playoff rentals, and we'll know what's happening with Enstrom by then since he'll either have hit UFA / been traded or been re-signed long-term during that offseason, etc.
Basically, I guess that this year they keep their eyes open, maybe scoop up a good deal if it comes up in trade or UFA, but are most planning to stockpile assets and keep space that will assist in an overhaul for 2013-14.
See, I sort of expect this upcoming season's roster to be fairly close to last year's -- my guess is 2013-14 is the year things REALLY change. Scheifele will likely be up full-time then, Antropov, Hainsey and Miettinen (difficult-to-move contracts that likely don't fit into the long-term plan) will be gone as UFAs or traded as playoff rentals, and we'll know what's happening with Enstrom by then since he'll either have hit UFA / been traded or been re-signed long-term during that offseason, etc.
Basically, I guess that this year they keep their eyes open, maybe scoop up a good deal if it comes up in trade or UFA, but are most planning to stockpile assets and keep space that will assist in an overhaul for 2013-14.
Agree'd, I think we might just be setting expectations low to avoid frustration ( i know i do). Gump: i get the feeling it's your opinion the true north is likely to try and remove everyone that doesn't "fit the plan" this off-season. is that true?
I'm just curious, and i'd be pretty excited to see it happen (off seasons can be dull without much action), but unfortunately it just doesn't seem realistic to me that it would get us anywhere.
I can see wanting to move the guys that don't fit for ones that do, but I don't have high hopes of the returns/replacements actually being upgrades, or even equivelents.
Depending on who you consider "not in the plan" I'd think their mostly the sort of "decent" spare parts, that given their contracts/performance/etc, aren't likely to bring back an equal talent level of "our type" of player.
I just don't think it would make sense to do it this year.
I'm going to jump to some quick assumptions as to a couple players we have that "arent ou r type"
Antropov(i'd debate this, i like antro)
enstrom
Burmistrov
Antro has a bad contract, but I feel he's actually an effective player. But with his recent production and cap hit, i don't htink you'll get a TNSE type guy that give similar numbers (big body, north south, hard to play against, 35+ point scorer) back for him, you'd get a downgrade that "fits our style".
Enstrom- one year from UFA and coming off a bad (relatively speaking) season. He's 1st pairing dman, but is he going to fetch a more physical first pairing dman? I feel what we'd be getting back is downgrade.
Burmistrov- a kid with high potential, good defencive abilities, but prone to bad plays in the ozone, and not exactly putting up amazing numbers. Furthermore, i'm not even convinced he's not a true north type of guy, obviously eh needs to work on his north south, but he hits, has good posession (over-possession sometimes) and is demon in his own zone.
Are any of these guys going to get us a replacement for one of the other two thats "our type"? The closest i could see is getting a burmi replacement for enstrom, but theres no way burmi or antro, or anything else we have will bring in the necessary dman to fill for that whole.
I don't know, i kinda got carried away their and started of train-of-thought typing. maybe i'll try and think of "comparable value"
Here is my attempt at #3. While I'd love to take a run at the Suter/Parise types, I tried to keep this plausible.
Main purpose of the plan - give the kids some room to play without rushing anybody above the level they should be at, while building a robust base for the future.
Moves This Summer
-Re-sign Kyle Wellwood
-Re-sign Chris Mason
-Sign David Jones
-Sign one of Brad Stuart or Barret Jackman
-Trade Enstrom for Voracek and 2013 1st
While I agree that most of the roster will probably stay the same, I could also see a couple of trades happening.
This is going to be the first summer where Chevy can actually make some moves, given that he's now accustomed and familiar with the roster. Last year he only made one trade, and that was to acquire a native Manitoban to bridge the gap between the other players and their new city. He tried to make some impactful signings (ie. Leino), but what free agent is going to want to sign with a city they (probably) know nothing about, with an ownership they know nothing about, on a team that probably wouldn't be a playoff team and hadn't released their logo or jersey yet?
The Jets are 2-3 years removed from when the Thrashers were still trying to ice a contender built around Kovalchuk. Even though they made good picks in Kane, Bogosian and Burmi, there are still remnants of those contending teams in players like Hainsey and Antro. Chevy and Chipman have repeatedly emphasized that they want to build a contender from within, and Dudley got the rebuild started in Atlanta with the acquisitions of Ladd, Buff, Wheeler and Stuart, but Antro and Hainsey are still guys that it makes sense to move if a) Chevy believes they will be free agents by the time the Jets are contenders and b) Chevy isn't planning on re-signing them. If TNSE is also going to remain relatively conservative when it comes to spending, I could also see them moving Hainsey and Antro's contracts now to save money to re-sign Enstrom later.
Another thing to possibly consider is that while Chevy may be looking to add players in the off season and as the season goes on, maybe Chevy's goal next year will be less in looking for the players he wants to add, and he will be more concerned with moving guys that they have identified as the ones they don't want to build around.
Not saying you can't try to do both at the same time, but in cases where they can't, maybe we will see trades more centered around removing the guys from the roster, and as Gump mentioned earlier regarding Enstrom, maybe the returns won't necessarily make us a better team right away. I.E. The return pieces may take longer to make an impact.
Another thing to possibly consider is that while Chevy may be looking to add players in the off season and as the season goes on, maybe Chevy's goal next year will be less in looking for the players he wants to add, and he will be more concerned with moving guys that they have identified as the ones they don't want to build around.
Not saying you can't try to do both at the same time, but in cases where they can't, maybe we will see trades more centered around removing the guys from the roster, and as Gump mentioned earlier regarding Enstrom, maybe the returns won't necessarily make us a better team right away. I.E. The return pieces may take longer to make an impact.
Huffer this is an excellant post and I would be suprised if this isn't the top priority. easier to control who you move than it is who you get. Hard to build a championship CULTURE with the wrong pieces. Some of those pieces will be easier to move than others as asset value is preserved but I think the "addition by subtraction" strategy is a very key part.
I was under the impression that we were basing our opinions of the players on how they performed so far in their career. I am not saying anything that could or wont happen.
I ment he was a +18 while playing alot more pk minutes then Burmi. As well as 4th line minutes compared to 2nd. There is no reason to say Couturier couldnt be our 2nd line center all year next year. Burmi i dont have half the confidence.
Sorry about the grammer before guys, I was being lazy. It was probably hard to read
You realize a player doesn't get a minus while killing and being scored on?Also Burmi killed alot of penalties this year.I wondering if someone could dig up the minutes to compare.
Another thing to possibly consider is that while Chevy may be looking to add players in the off season and as the season goes on, maybe Chevy's goal next year will be less in looking for the players he wants to add, and he will be more concerned with moving guys that they have identified as the ones they don't want to build around.
Not saying you can't try to do both at the same time, but in cases where they can't, maybe we will see trades more centered around removing the guys from the roster, and as Gump mentioned earlier regarding Enstrom, maybe the returns won't necessarily make us a better team right away. I.E. The return pieces may take longer to make an impact.
I agree with this, but I suspect some people will consider Kane, Burmi and Enstrom to be in that group, with I disagree with. Kane and Burmi are still way too young to write off for any reason and while Enstrom had a difficult season, everyone knows he can play much better (even if paired with Buff again).
However, you could make a case for someone like Chris Thorburn. He was ice cold for the first half of the season, even being a healthy scratch at one point. IMO, Slater made both him and Glass look much better than they actually are. Plus you have Machacek, who fills the same role while being younger and with a lower cap hit.
Another thing to possibly consider is that while Chevy may be looking to add players in the off season and as the season goes on, maybe Chevy's goal next year will be less in looking for the players he wants to add, and he will be more concerned with moving guys that they have identified as the ones they don't want to build around.
Not saying you can't try to do both at the same time, but in cases where they can't, maybe we will see trades more centered around removing the guys from the roster, and as Gump mentioned earlier regarding Enstrom, maybe the returns won't necessarily make us a better team right away. I.E. The return pieces may take longer to make an impact.
Sure. Im sure it will be a bit of both. Once they identify guys that they don't plan on having here long term and/or getting rid of a 'cancer' player (or a guy that seems to want to continually play outside of 'the system' ) moving them is likely better for the team long-term - even if the piece you get in return is 'futures'.
That was why the predators adding Radulov and Kostitsyn seemed like such an odd move. Sure they were looking for offense, and thought their cup window was now, but their team identity was built on character and hard work. Just wasn't a good fit.
I'm thinking Oduya likely fits this description. Likely wasn't going to be a piece long-term, at the salary they would have had to pay, so move him for picks.
I was under the impression that we were basing our opinions of the players on how they performed so far in their career. I am not saying anything that could or wont happen.
I ment he was a +18 while playing alot more pk minutes then Burmi. As well as 4th line minutes compared to 2nd. There is no reason to say Couturier couldnt be our 2nd line center all year next year. Burmi i dont have half the confidence.
Sorry about the grammer before guys, I was being lazy. It was probably hard to read
And if we are basing the opinions of players with how they have performed, both Burmistrov and Couturier would be similar, because they have both produced similar results in very similar roles.
It was a Lawless article, and it wasn't identified as coming from an "unknown Jets player," but a "Jets veteran," who obviously was speaking under the condition of anonymity.
i need to take the rust of my grammer skills thats for sure.. lol thanks for seeing that
Yeah, I wanted to assume so bad that you meant that he would be a 3rd liner for his whole career, but I've been around this forum too long to realize that that is not what you meant at all. Kinda disappointed because people love to have a reason to go off on others "crazy" opinions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer
I agree with Duke in that it seems people are forgetting just how young this guy is.
If he was in the Detroit, Nashville, or any other organization with some depth, he would've been in junior the last two years, and probably on his way to the AHL next year.
Not ideal having Antro and Wellwood on the 2nd line, and probably not ideal having Burmi, Slater, and Machacek together, but I think Slater is a better player than he is allowed to be on the GST line. If Burmistrov plays well, he could always replace either Antro or Wellwood if they were struggling.
C'mon Huffer, you know you're selling him short when you say that. He is wayyyy too talented to be in the AHL for next season. Three totals years in the OHL at most is what he would've done.
I'll comment on some other posts as far as line-ups go later. I'm too drunk right now to take the time. lol
I was under the impression that we were basing our opinions of the players on how they performed so far in their career. I am not saying anything that could or wont happen.
I ment he was a +18 while playing alot more pk minutes then Burmi. As well as 4th line minutes compared to 2nd. There is no reason to say Couturier couldnt be our 2nd line center all year next year. Burmi i dont have half the confidence.
Sorry about the grammer before guys, I was being lazy. It was probably hard to read
It was only about 30 seconds more and Couturier played 14 minutes a game. That's not 4th line minutes and not really "a lot" more PK time(but I guess that's more about perception). Look, all you have to do is go to nhl.com and you can look these stats up. It's really easy.
It's more couturier vs Burmi at this point. Which I do not get.
We didnt draft couturier. Get over it people.
I think people just have super high expectations for top 6 (and super low expectations for bottom 6).
AIH did a lil comparison of production for all Jets at or under the age 20, for WHA, 1.0 and 2.0, and they use regression to negate differences caused by how scoring was different in different years/leagues.
20 year old Burmi was 7th in production (the top 3 were all Hawerchuk seasons and 4th was this year for Kane) and 2nd for +/- (Kane this year being tied for 1st with 82/83 Mullen)... To me that shows he has potential (doesn't guarantee it, obviously). Oh PS this puts him above 19 year old Doan.
Also, they compared all D regardless of age... And it put in perspective how really good Entsrom and Buff are in production and +/- relatively speaking.
I think people just have super high expectations for top 6 (and super low expectations for bottom 6).
AIH did a lil comparison of production for all Jets at or under the age 20, for WHA, 1.0 and 2.0, and they use regression to negate differences caused by how scoring was different in different years/leagues.
20 year old Burmi was 7th in production (the top 3 were all Hawerchuk seasons and 4th was this year for Kane) and 2nd for +/- (Kane this year being tied for 1st with 82/83 Mullen)... To me that shows he has potential (doesn't guarantee it, obviously). Oh PS this puts him above 19 year old Doan.
Also, they compared all D regardless of age... And it put in perspective how really good Entsrom and Buff are in production and +/- relatively speaking.
I don't think top six, bottom six, matters. I think this team will be running four potent lines. I don't think we'll have a line with an all star on it...outside of Kane and we don't need one if the team is built right.
) moving them is likely better for the team long-term - even if the piece you get in return is 'futures'.
