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2012 Offseason Thread II: The Offseasoning

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05-25-2012, 10:58 AM
  #101
BigG44
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Some news today about Justin Schultz:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ”Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie”

Word out of Wisconsin is ANA draft Justin Schultz filed paperwork to quit school. Neither Ducks nor Schultz's reps responding for comment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ”Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie”

If Schultz has indeed de-registered from school, ANA has exclusive 30-day window to sign him. If unsigned after 30 days, he's UFA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ”Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie”

If UFA, Schultz cannot sign until July 1, but is free to talk to any teams immediately upon expiry of ANA's 30-day exclusivity window.
McKenzie didn't address this, but many have speculated Schutlz would have re-entered the draft if he filed his paperwork on or before May 23rd. The idea is at 21 years old he's still draft eligible. However, as a college player, the Ducks have a 30 day window of exclusive negotiation to work with him to get him under contract.

Therefore if the 30 day window ended before June 22nd (the draft), the Ducks lose his rights and he'd go back in to the draft. Now, the 30 days is after the draft (during depending on the exact day) and he'll be an UFA since he'd be ineligible for next year's draft.

Point is … like everyone thought all along … the Ducks are screwed. This is a calculated move by the agent to avoid the draft and become an unrestricted free agent. If they had any intention of signing with the Ducks, they would have done so by now. The Ducks were offering to burn a year of his ELC so he became a RFA in 2 years. Now, with his new team, he's still required to sign a 3 year ELC.

I put Schultz in the category of difficult and unlikely to acquire yet not totally impossible ... just like Suter. All the speculation seems to have him going home to British Columbia or to NY playing with his friends and ex-Wisconsin teammates.

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05-25-2012, 11:12 AM
  #102
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I wouldn't even be interested in a person who would screw over their drafting club like that.

Your link to the Mirtle article goes to the graph site. It's important to include Schenn under their 1st round drafting success that enabled them to acquire Richards. And somewhat less importantly Teubert enabled them to acquire Penner. Lewis was also a 1st rounder and he's a solid lower-line contributor.

IMO if your team composition is less than 50% drafted players (as it is in the Stars' case) you have structural issues with your organization. And that has undoubtedly been true here.

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05-25-2012, 11:17 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
NOTE: I made a mistake and counted Nystrom as a free agent. The above graph should list trades as 20% and free agents as 36% for Dallas.
Honestly, there isn't really a good spot for Nystrom. He wasn't a conventional trade addition. I'd create a category called "Thanks a lot, Tom Hicks" for him.

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05-25-2012, 11:27 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I wouldn't even be interested in a person who would screw over their drafting club like that.

Your link to the Mirtle article goes to the graph site. It's important to include Schenn under their 1st round drafting success that enabled them to acquire Richards. And somewhat less importantly Teubert enabled them to acquire Penner. Lewis was also a 1st rounder and he's a solid lower-line contributor.

IMO if your team composition is less than 50% drafted players (as it is in the Stars' case) you have structural issues with your organization. And that has undoubtedly been true here.
I just copied Mirtle's format (only current players on the team) otherwise the LA graph and Dallas graph wouldn't be comparable. If the discussion was purely about their ability to draft I do agree that is important.

You'd need the same for Dallas with Ivan Vishnevskiy and Kari Lehtonen or James Neal/Matt Niskanen and Alex Goligoski.

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05-25-2012, 11:30 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Troy McClure View Post
Honestly, there isn't really a good spot for Nystrom. He wasn't a conventional trade addition. I'd create a category called "Thanks a lot, Tom Hicks" for him.
IDK .. maybe, "Thanks a lot, Tom Hicks, and don't think I forgot you're the idiot that convinced everyone to bring Avery to Dallas Brett Hull".

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05-25-2012, 12:02 PM
  #106
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I thought this was appropriate for the discussion about centers:

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Mike Ribeiro - Center - 32 - Has 1 year remaining on his contract at $5m (UFA 2013):

Mike is still a very productive center for the Stars. Led the team in assists and was 2nd on the team in scoring. Ribeiro is always going to be a player that has critics (Including those who employ him), but we must be careful not to marginalize his true value. He might be the only true center on the entire roster and is much better at doing things in his own end than he is often given credit for. He has strong scoring instincts and is a real ideal playmaker. His size, inability to win face-offs, and inconsistent motor places him in a tier below many of the top centers he faces, but he is still incredibly valuable to a team like the Stars that just don't have any center depth anywhere in the organization. Two things that are quite underrated are his ability to show toughness and his ability to compete. He isn't always burying his needle in the red on the RPM gauge, but when he is up for it, he will scratch eyes out to win. Despite that, it has been clear for a few years that the Stars would be willing to flip Ribs because of various feelings, but they have never been able to because of their lack of centers. If Richards would have been signed, perhaps it would be different, but for now, they desperately need Ribeiro to do much of the heavy lifting in 2012-13.
That's from Bob Sturm (BAD Radio on the Ticket), and I think we could all agree he has a good relationship with the team (management and players), and he's much closer to the situation that any of us.

For several years, I can't point to anything specific off the top of my head, I couldn't figure out why I felt like the team didn't value Ribs too much. It's interesting to see Sturm say essentially the same thing. I wish he could have been more clear about the situation, but that obviously wouldn't be good for his reputation with the team.

I think Sturm nails it though. You've got a guy who is just underneath the group of elite centers probably firmly a 1B/2A type. Plus, he's the best thing you have going in the sense of a true center, and he loves the city/team. I don't know what kind of internal issues have to be brewing to make you want to move on from that guy. Yeah he's 32, but he's not really slowing down. If you wanted too, you could point to this year's slow start as a possible sign, but IMO, that had more to do with Morrow than Ribeiro.

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05-25-2012, 02:51 PM
  #107
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James Mirtle with another interesting article today. This one is about the importance of spending money in the NHL to be successful.

He says the CBA has created three groups of teams: the spenders, those trying to get to the point they can compete with the big money teams, and the teams that are just trying to make sure they are receiving revenue sharing from the league.

Based on the last 3 years, this is how those groups fell into place:

Quote:
Big spenders ($171-million or more): Philadelphia, Vancouver, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Washington, New Jersey, Montreal, Boston, San Jose, Detroit, NY Rangers, Buffalo, Toronto and Chicago

Midlevel spenders ($156-million or more): Minnesota, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Ottawa, Edmonton, Columbus and Tampa Bay

Below midpoint (less than $156-million): Florida, Carolina, Dallas, Phoenix, Nashville, St. Louis, Colorado, Winnipeg/Atlanta and NY Islanders
The stats aren't universal otherwise Toronto would be a perennial Cup contender and Nashville and PHX would not be as successful as they have been, but here are the average's per Mirtle:

Quote:
For the most part, the teams in the top group do very well, year after year. The last three seasons, they've averaged 98.2 points a season and a total of 13.5 playoff wins.

Compare that with those in the midlevel or low level group, who have averaged 86.5 points a season and a total of just 4.25 playoff wins.

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05-25-2012, 03:00 PM
  #108
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One thing very interesting about that list is the chance that 5 of the 9 below mid-point teams could easily move up to mid-level or even big spenders because of new ownership or a new commitment to spend by ownership (Dallas, Phoenix, Nashville, St. Louis, and Winnipeg/Atlanta).

In Florida's case, while they have relatively new ownership, the on ice success and development of their players plus the owner already proving he's willing to take on massive contracts like Campbell could pull them out of the cellar in spending as well.

Can you think of any teams, other than New Jersey, Buffalo, and Columbus that will be looking to slash spending because of ownership or just poor, poor use of money?

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05-25-2012, 04:08 PM
  #109
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Detroit is a team that I think in the long-term will be reducing expenditures.

I like Mirtle, and it's nice to see the work done, but that's not exactly groundbreaking analysis that the teams who spend more tend to succeed more.

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05-25-2012, 04:57 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Some news today about Justin Schultz:

McKenzie didn't address this, but many have speculated Schutlz would have re-entered the draft if he filed his paperwork on or before May 23rd. The idea is at 21 years old he's still draft eligible. However, as a college player, the Ducks have a 30 day window of exclusive negotiation to work with him to get him under contract.

Therefore if the 30 day window ended before June 22nd (the draft), the Ducks lose his rights and he'd go back in to the draft. Now, the 30 days is after the draft (during depending on the exact day) and he'll be an UFA since he'd be ineligible for next year's draft.

Point is like everyone thought all along the Ducks are screwed. This is a calculated move by the agent to avoid the draft and become an unrestricted free agent. If they had any intention of signing with the Ducks, they would have done so by now. The Ducks were offering to burn a year of his ELC so he became a RFA in 2 years. Now, with his new team, he's still required to sign a 3 year ELC.

I put Schultz in the category of difficult and unlikely to acquire yet not totally impossible ... just like Suter. All the speculation seems to have him going home to British Columbia or to NY playing with his friends and ex-Wisconsin teammates.
Just curious, if he were to have reentered the draft, any idea where he would've gone? I'd be stunned if he wouldn't have gone in the 1st round still, I'm just having trouble gauging where, exactly.

I know it doesn't matter, I was just curious about this.

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05-25-2012, 05:23 PM
  #111
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Just wondering about the availability of Ott. From Buffalo I'd offer Roy in exchange for Ott and a pick/prospect, or Roy and #21 for Ott and #12. Roy could play the wing or allow Benn to move to the wing, and allow a top PP unit to have Benn Ribiero and Ericsson with Roy centering the 2nd PP line with Ryder and whoever else on the other wing.

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05-25-2012, 05:24 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
Just wondering about the availability of Ott. From Buffalo I'd offer Roy in exchange for Ott and a pick/prospect, or Roy and #21 for Ott and #12. Roy could play the wing or allow Benn to move to the wing, and allow a top PP unit to have Benn Ribiero and Ericsson with Roy centering the 2nd PP line with Ryder and whoever else on the other wing.
Depending on the prospect involved, I'd be all over that deal. Roy brings the offense into the top six that we'll never see consistently from Otter.

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05-25-2012, 05:35 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
Just wondering about the availability of Ott. From Buffalo I'd offer Roy in exchange for Ott and a pick/prospect, or Roy and #21 for Ott and #12. Roy could play the wing or allow Benn to move to the wing, and allow a top PP unit to have Benn Ribiero and Ericsson with Roy centering the 2nd PP line with Ryder and whoever else on the other wing.
This would be hard to turn down, depending on the pick/prospect. Really not interested in swapping the 1sts since we need a C.

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05-25-2012, 05:43 PM
  #114
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Depends on the pick/prospect.

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05-25-2012, 06:56 PM
  #115
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Buffalo needs forwards, so what prospects would Dallas fans be willing to give up along with Ott for Roy? Was thinking Glennie, but he seems to have fallen off quite a bit. Not to sure about your other prospects, any ideas?

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05-25-2012, 08:45 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
Buffalo needs forwards, so what prospects would Dallas fans be willing to give up along with Ott for Roy? Was thinking Glennie, but he seems to have fallen off quite a bit. Not to sure about your other prospects, any ideas?
Glennie is finally starting to look like a decent prospect, but I am not surprised that non-Stars fans are a little behind that curve. What range of pick would you be looking for?

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05-25-2012, 09:09 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by LatvianTwist View Post
Just curious, if he were to have reentered the draft, any idea where he would've gone? I'd be stunned if he wouldn't have gone in the 1st round still, I'm just having trouble gauging where, exactly.

I know it doesn't matter, I was just curious about this.
Honestly no idea, but I noticed McKenzie had more to say about the situation this afternoon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

It is confirmed Justin Schultz de-registered from Wisconsin earlier this week, starting a process that could make blue-chip ANA prospect UFA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

Ducks have 30-day exclusive window to sign him but writing is on wall: Schultz going to UFA. 30-day window expires just prior to NHL draft.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

Obvious strategy now for ANA is to trade Schultz's rights to club Schultz will sign with but Ducks would need Schultz's cooperation on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

Schultz will become UFA - able to listen to offers - prior to draft but not able to actually sign til July 1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

Next to Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Schultz may be most sought after UFA this summer. Blue chip, Top 4 offensive defenceman prospect.
Button (former Director of Scouting and Director of Player Personnel in Dallas) added his two cents as well:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Button ‏@CraigJButton

@TSNBobMcKenzie. To add a little On Justin Schultz. NHL ready & a player I feel could be like Drew Doughty. Dynamic & controls game.

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05-25-2012, 10:50 PM
  #118
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Also, if he's that good, the fact that he'll be cheap is a nice bonus.

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05-25-2012, 10:59 PM
  #119
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Thoughts on Gaborik? He likely just played his last game as a Ranger...

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05-25-2012, 11:32 PM
  #120
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Thoughts on Gaborik? He likely just played his last game as a Ranger...
Yea, no.

There's no way he's getting traded. None at all. Unless I missed something major, I really, really doubt they'd ever let him go.

No way in hell Schultz is THAT good. But has any other player ever received offers from every team in the league? I can't imagine any team not offering him something at that price.

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05-25-2012, 11:43 PM
  #121
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Yea, no.

There's no way he's getting traded. None at all. Unless I missed something major, I really, really doubt they'd ever let him go.

No way in hell Schultz is THAT good. But has any other player ever received offers from every team in the league? I can't imagine any team not offering him something at that price.
Being put on the 3rd line in the Playoffs when you were the leading goal scorer during the season tells me they don't have a ton of faith in him when the pressure is high.

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05-25-2012, 11:54 PM
  #122
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Being put on the 3rd line in the Playoffs when you were the leading goal scorer during the season tells me they don't have a ton of faith in him when the pressure is high.
Wasn't Brad Richards on the 4th line for a bit this season? Why weren't the trade talks surrounding him then? Torts does stuff like that all the time, you can't read into it too much.

He may not be a great playoff performer, but that doesn't justify them trying to trade him.

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05-26-2012, 12:12 AM
  #123
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Wasn't Brad Richards on the 4th line for a bit this season? Why weren't the trade talks surrounding him then? Torts does stuff like that all the time, you can't read into it too much.

He may not be a great playoff performer, but that doesn't justify them trying to trade him.
Need to free up salary? A young up and comer in Krieder?

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05-26-2012, 12:33 AM
  #124
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Need to free up salary? A young up and comer in Krieder?
They are at $48 million with 16 players signed, and the only significant free agent is Del Zotto.

If you believe the rumors that the AHL loophole to bury contracts will be closed (it's a good as any to believe since Toronto GM Brian Burke said he thinks it could happen), Redden's $6.5 million is back against the cap.

However, his buyout would only be a bit over $3 million. Furthermore, the chance of an amnesty buyout (no cap charge) is just as good as the AHL loophole getting closed. He may not count against the cap regardless.

They only have eight Top 9 forwards signed next year including Gaborik so there's already a spot for Kreider. If there wasn't a spot btw ... how would he have played in this year's playoffs?

Salary cap and opening a roster spot for Kreider don't seem like good reasons for needing to trade Gaborik.

I'm sure you could come up with some good ones though ... that wasn't meant to be snarky even though it sounds that way as I re-read it ... I'm just saying keep trying. I don't think you're totally coming out of left field suggesting it could happen, but your first two reasons don't hold up too much, IMO.

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05-26-2012, 02:01 AM
  #125
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Gaborik could very well be traded. Torts mentioned in his post-game interview that he wasn't happy with how some of the players reacted to pressure and adversity during this series. He said he was very pleased and happy with some of his players, but others he was just as surprised with in a bad way.

I love Gabby, but he was a ghost these playoffs. Sure he drew top defenders and was constantly checked. Sure he put up assists. But he was playing weak and scared, and with NY looking to move to Cup contention mode, I'm not sure if an on-again off-again regular season performer will be enough.

I think Dubi, Anisimov, and Gaborik all could be on the block to be honest. Changes will come. I'm not sure if we have anything the Rangers would want though. Maybe Ryder for a Cup run at the deadline? I feel like the Rangers will make their moves in the offseason. Trade Anisimov or Dubi for a year of Ribeiro? I don't see it happening. Sather's not retarded, and has said he won't trade youth for mercenaries anymore.

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