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DaveG's 2012 Mocking of the Draft (vers 1.0)

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05-27-2012, 09:02 AM
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DaveG
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DaveG's 2012 Mocking of the Draft (vers 1.0)

1 - Edmonton Oilers - RW Nail Yakupov, Sarnia (OHL)
team needs: defense
why: BPA, and I don't have trades in this mock. I can honestly see the Jackets making a play to get the #1 spot, and I can see the Oilers wanting Murray and therefore entertaining those offers. But when all is said and done, this pick is what I'm about 90% sure is going to happen.
alternative picks: D Ryan Murray (trade down)

2 - Columbus Bluejackets - D Ryan Murray, Everett (WHL)
team needs: everything including a new GM
why: BPA here. Despite now having a legit top pairing guy now in Johnson, they do lack a true top 3 stay-at-home presence in their defense. Enter the new Glen Wesley. Though I can see them going with a forward, their stated aversion to Russians limits that prettymuch to Forsberg. Unless they're absolutely sold on him I see the Jackets taking the safer option.
alternative picks: F Filip Forsberg

3 - Montreal Canadiens - C Mikhail Grigorenko, Quebec (QMJHL)
team needs: high end center
why: Grigorenko fits the mold of team need and BPA for the Habs. Once regarded as rivaling Nail, Grigorenko had a rough back half of the season after the WJCs causing him to fall in the rankings. But revelations that he was playing through Mono likely since December should have some changing their mind and having him back where he belongs in the top 3. There are other options here with this pick though.
alternative picks: F Filip Forsberg, C Alex Galchenyuk

4 - New York Islanders - F Filip Forsberg, Leksand (Allsvenskan)
needs: wings
why: The Isles have a strong system which means they'll probably go BPA here, though they could use some more depth on the wings. Kabonov, Petrov, and Nino are their only prospect depth here and while the hype is high, the production is not yet. Forsberg gives the Isles another dangerous playmaking threat and could be a good setup guy for the 2nd line or even a tandem with Tavares.
alternative picks: C Alex Galchenyuk

5 - Toronto Maple Leafs - C Alex Galchenyuk, Sarnia (OHL)
team needs: center, goalie
why: Way too early to think about Vasilevski here, so they go with the BFA (best forward available). Galchenyuk, before getting injured pre-season, was rivaling Nail for the #1 spot in this draft. How well he recovers from this remains to be seen, but he's a perfect fit for the Leafs with Kadri and Colborne both looking far more like 2nd line material at this point in their development.
alternative picks: D Trouba, D Reinhart, D Reilly, D Dumba, D Ceci

6 - Anaheim Ducks - D Jacob Trouba, USNTDP (USHL)
team needs: defensive partner for Fowler
why: Trouba seems to be climbing the charts once again after slipping a bit for some reason. He has good offense to go with being probably the best defender after Murray in his own end of the top 6 dmen. Just makes too much sense.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Reilly, D Dumba, D Ceci, F Teravainen

7 - Minnesota Wild - D Morgan Reilly, Moose Jaw (WHL)
team needs: offensive dman
why: Reilly may be the best player on the board at this point. Very gifted offensively, and very creative. Problem for him is that he missed much of this season leading to him falling in the rankings. Ton of directions Minnesota can go in to fit need with this pick though.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Dumba, D Ceci, F Teravainen

8 - Carolina Hurricanes - F Teuvo Teravainen, Jokerit (FEL)
team needs: high end forward
why: Teuvo is this drafts Skinner in more ways then one. Gifted offensively, immensely creative, a tad undersized, and an absolutely stunning performance in his leagues playoffs. If anything, the Canes should worry about Finland's response to Hockey Bieber going off the board before this. Given the somewhat unexpected success of Skinner a player in that kind of mold will be getting more attention this time around.
alternative picks: C Radek Faksa, D Griffin Reinhart, C Brendan Gaunce, C Zemgus Girgensons

9 - Winnipeg Jets - C Radek Faksa, Kitchener (OHL)
Team needs: top end forwards
why: Going "off the board" (though the reaction from Rutherford at the time indicates that's who the Canes were targeting with their first as well) for Scheifele seems to be working out nicely for the Jets so far. And with a strong stable of dmen in the league right now they really don't need to target another dman right now. So this leaves us with Faksa as the BFA, a guy with a good two-way game, good frame, and that would project well either down the middle or on the wing in the NHL. Very safe pick that still has some decent (top 6) upside.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Dumba, D Ceci, C Gaunce, C Girgensons, RW Collberg

10 - Tampa Bay Lightning - D Matt Dumba, Red Deer (WHL)
team needs: dman, goalie
If there was one thing Tampa lacked this past year it was quality goaltending. But if there was anything else it was any kind of quality on defense. Hedman hasn't exactly panned out as hoped, and Dumba may be the most gifted dman still on the market here. Many argue he could go as early as #4 this year.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Ceci, D Olli Maatta

11 - Washington Capitals - D Olli Maatta, London (OHL)
team needs: BPA
why: The Caps have a lot of talent on D already, but they also have a lot of talent up front. They'll lose Semin to free agency, but they still have a good scoring core with Ovechkin, Backstrom, and possibly Kuznetsov. They have some strong young dmen as well in Carlson, Green, Alzner, and Orlov, but another one here wouldn't hurt one bit. Maatta's playoffs with London has him much higher in rankings right now then he was before the playoffs for me.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Ceci, C Gaunce, C Girgensons, RW Collberg

12 - Buffalo Sabres - C Brendan Gaunce, Belleville (OHL)
team needs: two-way forwards
why: The Sabres have a ton of strong offensive prospects and players, although no real gamebreakers aside from Vanek and maybe (eventually) Ennis. But they lack that forward that can shut people down in their top 9. Enter the best two-way forward in the draft in Gaunce, seems like a no-brainer to me. If he can become the Sabres version of O'Reilly or Sutter they could be very dangerous down the road.
alternative picks: D Reinhart, D Ceci, C Girgensons, RW Collberg

13 - Dallas Stars - D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton (WHL)
team needs: BPA (non-goalie)
why: Reinhart's here not out of need, but because I really can't justify the guy going any lower then this and I can justify him going higher. Much higher. They could use a shakeup at a lot of positions so going BPA through much of the draft is what makes the most sense to me at least.
alternative picks: D Ceci, C Girgensons, RW Collberg

14 - Calgary Flames - D Cody Ceci, Ottawa (OHL)
team needs: everything
why: Let's face it, if you needed a candidate for the next Oiler style rebuild this is it. They have virtually nothing in the system aside from Baertschi. Ceci is a pretty obvious BPA pick here to me. Ceci could become a solid top 4 dman for them down the road, and really would be their first high-end dman prospect for them since Phaneuf.
alternative picks: C Zemgus Girgensons, RW Sebastien Collberg

15 - Ottawa Senators - RW Sebastien Collberg, Frolunda (SEL)
team needs: BPA
why: They lack goalie depth, but they don't need a ton of it with Lehner and Anderson in their system, so no goalie here (this round at least). Collberg for most of the season was the 2nd ranked Euro prospect, though a good bit behind Forsberg in that regard. Teravainen has skyrocketed past him, but the skill that Collberg has can't be denied. He projects as a possible top 6 guy and the Sens don't have an urgent need down the middle with Spezza and a resurgent Turris.
alternative picks: C Zemgus Girgensons, LW Pontus Aberg, C Tomas Hertl, RW Tom Wilson, D Derek Pouliot

16 - Washington Capitals - C Zemgus Girgensons, Dubuque (USHL)
why: Girgensons represents the last prospect in this tier before moving down to the next one. I'm not sure how well his offensive game will translate to the NHL level but at the very least he should project to be a good two-way #2 centerman long term, something the Caps have needed for years now.
alternative picks: LW Pontus Aberg, C Tomas Hertl, RW Tom Wilson

17 - San Jose Sharks - C Tomas Hertl, Slavia (Czech)
needs: BPA
why: The Sharks system is rather depleted at the moment, though they more then most teams have a tendency to find against-the-grain picks that tend to pan out nicely. Hertl is all upside, one of the best offensive players in the draft, but he has high bust potential. It's not a perfect fit, but it's one that makes a lot of sense.
alternative picks: LW Pontus Aberg, RW Tom Wilson, D Derek Pouliot

18 - Chicago Blackhawks - G Andrei Vasilevski, Ufa (KHL)
team needs: goalie
Let me say this right now, I hate taking goalies in the first round unless it's beyond clear that they are the BPA AND that the team needs one. Vasilevski has been BPA to me since Ceci left my board but he hasn't been a fit til now. Crawford was underwhelming for the Hawks in the playoffs, and the only thing they have in their system is a merely average Salak. Not the best situation in net. Vasilevski is probably the strongest Euro goalie prospect since Markstrom. Just makes too much sense to me. Only thing that makes me skeptical of this pick is the KHL factor.
alternative picks: G Oscar Dansk, G Malcolm Subban, LW Pontus Aberg, RW Tom Wilson, D Derek Pouliot

19 - Tampa Bay Lightning - LW Pontus Aberg, Djurgarden (SEL)
why: The debate between which of Aberg and Collberg is better still rages, so the Bolts are happy he falls to them here. He had a more productive season in the top league then Collberg but I think Collberg has the better upside and has been better in the most visible situations (WJC) which leads me to having Aberg fall here.
alternative picks: RW Tom Wilson, D Derek Pouliot, D Hampus Lindholm, D Matt Finn

20 - Philadelphia Flyers - D Derek Pouliot, Portland (WHL)
team needs: PMD
why: They don't really have a ton of needs with one of the strongest groups of young players in the league. But they do need defense (albeit more in the short term) and a guy like Pouliot, while undersized, has the skillset to be what they need. There are some good alternative picks here though so not much would surprise me.
alternative picks: RW Martin Frk, RW Tom Wilson, D Hampus Lindholm, D Matt Finn

21 - Buffalo Sabres - RW Tom Wilson, Plymouth (OHL)
why: Sabres fans may kill me for this one, but what they lost in the Kassian trade they can get back right here. Guys like Wilson tend to be a bit overvalued in the draft anymore as is. Having Wilson fall into their laps would be huge for Buffalo IMO.
alternative picks: RW Martin Frk, D Hampus Lindholm, D Matt Finn

22 - Pittsburgh Penguins - RW Martin Frk, Halifax (QMJHL)
team needs: BPA
why: I can't see Frk falling too terribly much farther then this. Frk at one point was touted as a top 5 for this draft, but he really fell off post-injury. But a strong playoffs has lead to a resurgence for him, stylistically he's a fit for what the Pens need up front, and he just has too much skill to pass up.
alternative picks: D Hampus Lindholm, D Matt Finn, C Stefan Matteau

23 - Florida Panthers - D Hampus Lindholm, Rogle (Allsvenskan)
team needs: BPA
Let's face it, they're loaded prospect wise, more so then prettymuch anyone else out there. Lindholm has been a bit of a riser this year and fits the BPA mold nicely for the Panthers, though there are a couple other dmen that fit that mold as well.
alternative picks: D Matt Finn, C Stefan Matteau, D Brady Skjei, LW Nicolas Kerdiles

24 - Boston Bruins - D Matt Finn, Guelph (OHL)
Team needs: BPA
why: The Bruins don't need much, though an eventual replacement for Chara would be nice. But since one of those isn't all that easy to find, just keep going BPA. Finn's a prospect that's a bit all over the board in most rankings. I can see him going before here, can't see him going after this though.
alternative picks: C Stefan Matteau, D Brady Skjei, LW Nicolas Kerdiles, D Slater Koekkoek

25 - St Louis Blues - C Steffan Matteau, USNTDP (USHL)
needs: BPA, a system that doesn't make me want to gouge my eyes out
why: The Blues aren't really lacking much at all, and they're strong defensively. So I have them taking arguably the best two-way forward left because Ken Hitchcock says "**** you that's why". That and I like Back to the Future references and we'll be getting a lot of those with Matteau in St Louis.
alternative picks: D Brady Skjei, LW Nicolas Kerdiles, D Slater Koekkoek

26 - Vancouver Canucks - D Brady Skjei, USNTDP (USHL)
team needs: defense
why: Canucks fans might argue with me on this one, but IMO it's what they need more then anything. Their defense core isn't getting any younger, and while they do have Edler, Bieksa, and Hamhuis, nothing else under 30 looks all that good. Skjei isn't an overly ambitious pick, but it's a projectable pick, and that's what they need more then anything right now.
alternative picks: LW Nicolas Kerdiles, D Slater Koekkoek, D Jordan Schmaltz, C Colton Scissons, RW Scott Kosmachuk

27 - Phoenix Coyotes - LW Nicolas Kerdiles, USNTDP (USHL)
team needs: BPA
why: They really don't need much, though I'm not 100% sold on Visentin long term so Subban or Dansk could be an option here. But Kerdiles is a very projectable player in the power forward mold from the NTDP. Could be a good fit for the Yotes.
alternative picks: G Malcolm Subban, G Oscar Dansk, D Slater Koekkoek, D Jordan Schmaltz, C Colton Scissons, RW Scott Kosmachuk

28 - New York Rangers - D Slater Koekkoek, Peterborough (OHL)
team needs: BPA
why: Another team that could find use for a high end goalie prospect eventually that I don't think will take one for at least a couple years. Koekkoek is all about upside. Some thought he could go top 10 heading into this season but he's just stayed too damn raw. He's slipping in the rankings a bit due to injury, but if he can stay healthy he'll be a good fit for whoever takes him.
alternative picks: G Oscar Dansk, G Malcolm Subban, D Jordan Schmaltz, C Colton Scissons, RW Scott Kosmachuk

New Jersey Devils - none, forfeit pick (Kovalchuk)
team need: goalie
why: lol that one was easy

Los Angeles Kings - C Colton Scissons, Kelowna (WHL)
team need: BPA (non-goalie)
why: to be honest Scissons hasn't impressed me much this year, but he's supposed to be a good two-way player so he doesn't stand out much. If he moves to wing he could make a damn nice shutdown line player with Richards.
alternative picks: D Jordan Schmaltz, RW Scott Kosmachuk


Last edited by DaveG: 05-27-2012 at 09:24 AM.
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05-27-2012, 09:33 AM
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gramatanboy
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Good mock draft!! I think that Montreal will draft Galchenyuk over Grigorenko and if not, I see the Islanders drafting Galchenyuk over Forsberg, but we will see on June 22!!

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05-27-2012, 09:39 AM
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DaveG
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Good mock draft!! I think that Montreal will draft Galchenyuk over Grigorenko and if not, I see the Islanders drafting Galchenyuk over Forsberg, but we will see on June 22!!
Yep, I went back and forth on that one for a long time. They'll take one of the two centers IMO, but which one is where I'm having a hard time deciding. I wouldn't want to be Montreal's GM if they make the wrong pick on that one that's for sure.

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05-27-2012, 09:41 AM
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i think the Ducks would take Dumba with 6th pick but other than that good mock

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05-27-2012, 09:52 AM
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awesome job ! would love to see round 2 of your work as well ...

as a CBJ fan i am pulling for Forsberg @ # 2
and hoping for a trade involving Nash that lands us another lottery pick in this draft to stock the prospect pool

also see us drafting a goalie with our first pick in the second round or second pick in the second round

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05-27-2012, 10:10 AM
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hi

Very good draft, solid picks.

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05-27-2012, 10:16 AM
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This is the best Mock ive seen on these boards... Well next to mine. Haha

So many picks make alot of sence.

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05-27-2012, 04:36 PM
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I have to say great job. A lot of thought clearly put into this and really the alternative picks were a nice touch since there really is a lot of ways this could go.

Agree if Galchenyuk drops to 5 then the Leafs will likely grab him. Same really for most of the top forwards that might be there. Things could get mixed up depending on how Montreal feels about Grigorenko and Galchenyuk.

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05-27-2012, 10:26 PM
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Would absolutely love it if Reinhart fell to us.

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05-27-2012, 10:54 PM
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Very nice job with the picks and the explanations that followed them along with the alternatives. I don't mind Frk at #22.

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05-28-2012, 09:31 AM
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The biggest factor will be Columbus' pick. If they go for Murray, im pretty sure the Habs would rather pick Galchenyuk and perhaps even Forsberg than Grigorenko. He is too much of a risk and if we've learned anything in the past is to not gamble with a top 3 pick. I dont buy the mono excuse. Yes perhaps im not an athlete but if you've ever had mono in your life, you can barely move a finger so I dont think he had mono for almost 4 months.

Now if Columbus picks Galchenyuk #2, I still think the Habs would go for Forsberg or even Murray but I could understand why they would Grigorenko since they desperately need a big centerman.

My prediction is that Griogorenko is the Cherepanov of this draft and will fall out of the top 5.

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05-28-2012, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
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The biggest factor will be Columbus' pick. If they go for Murray, im pretty sure the Habs would rather pick Galchenyuk and perhaps even Forsberg than Grigorenko. He is too much of a risk and if we've learned anything in the past is to not gamble with a top 3 pick. I dont buy the mono excuse. Yes perhaps im not an athlete but if you've ever had mono in your life, you can barely move a finger so I dont think he had mono for almost 4 months.

Now if Columbus picks Galchenyuk #2, I still think the Habs would go for Forsberg or even Murray but I could understand why they would Grigorenko since they desperately need a big centerman.

My prediction is that Griogorenko is the Cherepanov of this draft and will fall out of the top 5.
hopefully to 7. Wild still need that elite prospect that could eventually be a #1 center.

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05-28-2012, 11:30 AM
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Yep, I went back and forth on that one for a long time. They'll take one of the two centers IMO, but which one is where I'm having a hard time deciding. I wouldn't want to be Montreal's GM if they make the wrong pick on that one that's for sure.
I think there's an outside chance the Habs get Yakupov.

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05-28-2012, 11:44 AM
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Collberg for the Sens is a legit pick. I still think they'll go D at #15, BPA aside, they have more than a few forward prospects looking for spots (Noesen, Puempel, Prince, Stone, Silfverberg), but essentially nothing in the pipeline on the backend that projects to be more than a 3rd pairing defender.

I would bet Lindholm/Finn are above Collberg on the Sens list.

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05-28-2012, 12:00 PM
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I don't feel that Faksa is off the board at 9. In my list (not a mock, but just BPA list) I have Faksa 6th. I love the complete game that he brings, the most well rounded player in this draft, AFAIC. As my signature attests, I would LOVE for the Jets to get him at 9

I personnally think Collberg, Aberg and Pouliot are too high, but I realize that I'm pretty low on those guys for various reasons, but not a fan of any of them they are 24, 45 and 28 respectively on my list.

I am hoping that the Kings do not take Sissons. I am just not a fan of him, don't think he has all that much upside. At very very best he will be a 3rd liner, IMO, very little to no offensive upside and he is not really a "safe" pick guaranteed 3rd/4th liner either. Just not a fan. Will Samuelsson, Schmaltz, Bystrom, Bozon, Pearson all still there in your mock, I am hoping that LA would take one of them.

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05-28-2012, 02:22 PM
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I think there's an outside chance the Habs get Yakupov.
Not even close.

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05-28-2012, 02:33 PM
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Very good job. I think you'll see Hawks fans complaining they won't take a goalie in the 1st (maybe in the 2nd, though), DuckJet complaining that the Ducks will take Dumba over Trouba, and Habs fans wanting Galchenyuk over Grigorenko, but it's very reasonable. Best mock I've seen.

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05-29-2012, 09:37 PM
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Grigs, or Gally seems like the logical choice, so you did me no wrong, sir.

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