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Ovechkin vs Selanne (Rookie years)...

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Old
03-29-2006, 09:37 AM
  #76
Vincent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calderon
Another math-based try on the point comparison but I've seen worse. But why reduce Selšnne's totals to 82 games, since his statistics really are the very cornerstone this whole calculation is based? This season hasn't ended yet, so all we have is Teemu's 84-game season.
Good point, I don't thought about it.

With 84 games:

Selanne: 76 goals; 56 assists; 132 points
Ovechkin: 77 goals; 73 assists; 150 points

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Old
03-29-2006, 01:40 PM
  #77
Burgh32
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76goals > *

Selanne had a better rookie year. Ovechkin will have the better career (by far).

Quote:
Originally Posted by cneely
Drinking 10 beers at the game + Selanne breaking the record, and the celebration afterward = most fun you can have with your pants on.
You drank 10 beers and still kept your pants on? I call BS!

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Old
03-29-2006, 05:00 PM
  #78
Piggish
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Now someone fact-check my post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent
In 1993 the 20 NHL teams scored 6651 goals in 924 games.
In 1993 the 24 NHL teams (4 divisions * 6 teams) scored 7311 goals in 1008 games (24 teams * 84 games / 2 teams).

Quote:
That makes 325 goals for every team.
About 305 goals per team. In other words, one team scored 3.631 goals per game.

[QUOTE]So far in 2005 30 NHL teams scored 6634 goals in 1066 games. This will continue to 7655 goals in the full season. An average of 255 goals per team.[QUOTE]

Which would make for a rate of 3.110 goals per game.

Quote:
So the conversion factor between these two seasons is 1.27.
1.17, actually (3.631 / 3.110).

Quote:
That means that the Washington Capitals in 1993 would have scored 295 goals.
The 2005-6 Capitals' offense is the equivalent of 282 goals in 1992-3 (1.17 * 84 games * 201 goals / 70 games).

Quote:
In total 27% more goals were scored in 1993.
17 percent.

Quote:
The conversion factor between the Caps in 1993 and the Jets is 1.06.
What's this "conversion factor"? Using your erroneous figures, 322 goals for Winnipeg divided by 295 goals for Washington would lead to a "conversion factor" of 1.09. (Using the correct figures, 322 / 282 = 1.14.)

Quote:
Both played on slightly under average teams than it comes to goalscoring.
Washington's offense is more than slightly under average. They rank 25th out of 30 in goals allowed per game.

Quote:
Finally, Ovechkin on the 1993 Winnipeg Jets would have scored 76 Goals and assisted on 71 other Goals. (The conversion factor is 1.35)
I can't begin to tell you how many things are wrong with this. I mean, I see how 1.06 * 1.27 = 1.35. (And with the correct figures, 1.17 * 1.14 = 1.33.) However, how on earth did you arrive at the idea that Ovechkin's statistics should be "adjusted" in this manner, I'll probably never know. You're counting Winnipeg's goals twice, in both conversion factors. You're also giving Ovechkin a huge amount of credit for playing in a team with a bad offense. Assuming that a single player's offense goes up by the same percentage as his team's scoring is entirely baseless and leads to some ridiculous results.

I'll give an example. The 1992-3 Red Wings scored 4.39 goals per game and the 2005-6 Blue Jackets have so far scored 2.42 goals per game, giving us a 1.81 "conversion factor" between the teams. Now, 1.17 (season adjustment) * 1.81 (team adjustment) = 2.12. You're basically suggesting that Rick Nash's 0.98 points per game on 2005-6 Columbus is the equivalent of a 84 game, 175 point season on 1992-3 Detroit. Bow down, Stevie Y.

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Old
03-29-2006, 05:08 PM
  #79
Piggish
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Adjustments

Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejack
I think the best way to look at the numbers historically is the same way baseball does - take them at face value.
In baseball writers and fans adjust for era a heck of a lot more often than in hockey. They even adjust for ballpark factors. Hockey doesn't really have an equivalent of an OPS+ or ERA+, both common baseball statistics. (I think it'd be illustrative to compare goalies based on their save percentage divided by the league average save percentage, to give one example.)

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Old
03-29-2006, 07:58 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piggish
(I think it'd be illustrative to compare goalies based on their save percentage divided by the league average save percentage, to give one example.)
Check out Daryl Shilling's study on adjusted save percentage. Some surprising results, but most are what you'd expect.

http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_s...djustedsvp.htm

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Old
03-29-2006, 10:49 PM
  #81
Sens Rule
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent
I had a mistake yesterday night... so again...

Doing some Math ...

In 1993 the 20 NHL teams scored 6651 goals in 924 games. That makes 325 goals for every team. So far in 2005 30 NHL teams scored 6634 goals in 1066 games. This will continue to 7655 goals in the full season. An average of 255 goals per team.

So the conversion factor between these two seasons is 1.27. That means that the Washington Capitals in 1993 would have scored 295 goals. (Winnipeg scored 322 on 84 games). In total 27% more goals were scored in 1993.

The next step is bringing Ovechkin to the Jets. The conversion factor between the Caps in 1993 and the Jets is 1.06. That shows that the difference of Ovechkin's situation and Selanne's isn't that big. Both played on slightly under average teams than it comes to goalscoring.

Finally, Ovechkin on the 1993 Winnipeg Jets would have scored 76 Goals and assisted on 71 other Goals. (The conversion factor is 1.35)

According to this:
Teemu Selanne: 82 games; 74 goals; 55 assists; 129 points
Alexander Ovechkin: 82 games; 76 goals; 71 assists; 147 points

Ovechkin is not only the better goalscorer, he is by far the better playmaker. And that on a team that doesn't make the playoffs.

Just Math

PS: Excuse the bad english, I'm german
There were 24 teams in 92-93 and there were 7311 goals scored that year. 304.6 goals per team in a league that played 84 games. That is 3.626 goals per game for each team or 7.252 goals per game for both teams. I think you must have missed counting some of the teams. So your math is off. But not by that much.

I don't know if Ovechkin would have more goals than Selanne if he had played that season but Selanne did have Housley setting him up alot, he had 79 assists and was tied for 7th in assists, and he had 97 points, also Thomas Steen, Zhamnov, Olausson, Tkachuk, Teppo Numminen were on that team. That is some pretty good offensive talent espeacially with 3 pretty good offensive D-Men. The top scoring D-Man on Washington has 26 points. Selanne had 24 PPG of his 76. Ovechkin has 20 of his 47 goals on the PP. An argument for Selanne. Selanne was 6th in points and Mario Lemieux had the best season of his career and was on pace for 224 points. He missed 24 games and got 160 points. This season AO is 3rd in points and second in goals.

It is really hard to say one season is better than the other, or how either would perform if they were in each others position. Like I said before I think Gretzky's first season was significantly better than either AO or Selanne's. He tied for the NHL lead with 137 points and was only 2 off the goal scoring lead too and won the Hart trophy. And also I think the 79-80 Gretzky outscores both Selanne and AO if he was in their respective situations. And if he was 20 like AO is or 22 like Selanne was he obliterates their numbers.

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Old
03-30-2006, 12:17 AM
  #82
Pure
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Selanne's 76 that year might be higher then the goal total in Ovechkin's best season. (I could totally be wrong), so definitly Teemu. (Damn you why must you suck with the Avs).

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Old
03-30-2006, 04:16 AM
  #83
Cors
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Owing to Google is mine english perfectly.

I cannot count times to 5 in English.

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Old
03-30-2006, 06:30 AM
  #84
Sens Rule
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cors
Owing to Google is mine english perfectly.

I cannot count times to 5 in English.
Don't worry many English posters can't count to 5 either.

If your post was fully translated by a computer program then it worked pretty well because your post was easily understood. I am impressed with the translation if it was translated using google or another computer program.

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Old
03-30-2006, 08:19 AM
  #85
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All this math is giving me a headache...

Here's the skinny as I see it:
- Selanne was 1st in goals (tied), 5th in points
- Ovechkin is 2nd in goals, 3rd in points currently. He'll probably realistically finish somewhere b/w 3rd and 6th in points - Alfredsson, Staal and Heatley are close behind - and 2nd in goals.

If you're not going to judge it on absolute terms than the only other way that makes sense is relative to the rest of the league. Adjusting for eras, rules, age, teammates, goalies, schedules, state of the league, expansion, etc is an interesting exercise, but a hypothetical one. Their play relative to their peers is the best (and easiest) comparator, IMO

I'm very biased here, because Teemu is my favorite player, but I'd still give him an edge over Ovechkin, mostly because 76 goals is one heck of an acheivement in absolute terms.

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