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The Official Jordan Staal Wacky Speculation Thread IV

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Old
06-01-2012, 08:24 PM
  #26
Zirakzigil
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Originally Posted by wej20 View Post
Don't want Stajan's contract, having Martin and Bouwmeester on the same team would be hilarious though.
The horrific undervaluing of both of them on this board is hilarious. Look at Campbell the last 2 years before he was traded to Florida as a prime example. Martin had a rough year and may not fit into the system that DB has, hardly means that he isnt a top pairing defenseman. Bouwmeester is a top pairing defenseman who has struggled offensively under Sutters offensive stifling system, but he still was playing a solid 25-30 minutes a game. I would rather have Bouwmeester and Martin as my top pairing then the majority of the other options teams have around the league.

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06-01-2012, 08:29 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Zirakzigil View Post
The horrific undervaluing of both of them on this board is hilarious. Look at Campbell the last 2 years before he was traded to Florida as a prime example. Martin had a rough year and may not fit into the system that DB has, hardly means that he isnt a top pairing defenseman. Bouwmeester is a top pairing defenseman who has struggled offensively under Sutters offensive stifling system, but he still was playing a solid 25-30 minutes a game. I would rather have Bouwmeester and Martin as my top pairing then the majority of the other options teams have around the league.
There not bad players but having both of them on the same team especially the same pairing doesn't work.

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Old
06-01-2012, 08:29 PM
  #28
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I still think that's the most likely outcome; just not as much fun to talk about.
Pretty much.

You'd think with the abundance of D-prospects ready and some players not waiver exempt, there would be more talk on that front.

If Staal is resigned, I'd imagine Jeffrey gets traded. The D-prospects I'm at a loss to even sift through that one. Who do you keep and who to let go/trade?

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06-01-2012, 08:58 PM
  #29
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vecens24: No problem with you thinking that. Probably the safer way to go. I think Saad's going to be at worst top 31 because I think HF underrated him, but we'll see I guess. No problem.
Well Dobber's report came out today and like I predicted Saad wasn't near the top 15, or the top 30. Saad is ranked the 54th best forward prospect by Dobber and has an upside of Ryan Malone with a 3-year-potential (average of best three years) being 45 points.

On the flip side, in the 2011 report Brayden Schenn was the 1st ranked forward with an upside of Mike Richards and a 3YP of 73 points.

But Saad and Scheen are basically the same thing, right?

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06-02-2012, 03:27 AM
  #30
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http://e9b8db0d-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.g...attredirects=0

Someone posted this on the main board and I thought it was really interesting. If you scroll down and find the Pens, you'll see just how dominant Staal's season was.

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06-02-2012, 08:01 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Zirakzigil View Post
The horrific undervaluing of both of them on this board is hilarious. Look at Campbell the last 2 years before he was traded to Florida as a prime example. Martin had a rough year and may not fit into the system that DB has, hardly means that he isnt a top pairing defenseman. Bouwmeester is a top pairing defenseman who has struggled offensively under Sutters offensive stifling system, but he still was playing a solid 25-30 minutes a game. I would rather have Bouwmeester and Martin as my top pairing then the majority of the other options teams have around the league.
Bouwmeester is one of the most overrated and overpayed players in the NHL. If hes your #1 then your d must suck, and Calgary's does. Pittsburgh would despise the 6'4" schlub as soon as they saw him reach in with a poke check on a 6" forward he could've plastered on the boards. Hes better off staying in Calgary to wallow away in obscurity and avoid criticism.

Honestly, I did a breakdown of advanced and normal stats between Ryan Whitney and jayblo, and Whitney comes out on top. They're nearly identical defensively and Whitney has continued to put up points which jayblo hasn't. Whitney has 20 less points in nearly 300 less games in his career and when healthy gives you the same 50-70 hit, 100+ blocked shot, poke check style of defense as jayblo.

And whats more impressive, Whitney being +4 in his time at Edmonton, the team with the 1st overall pick 3 years in a row, or jayblo being -27 in his time in Calgary, a team that sucks but certainly has been better than Edmonton?

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06-02-2012, 08:18 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by HuskerTornado View Post
How's this for wacky...he'll re-sign.
Most likely but I'd say it's about 60/40 in favor, so not a sure thing by any means. But I hope it happens. I think we can find the D help we need from Despres and Morrow, if Bylsma just gets the balls to do it. Partly Shero needs to put some pressure on Disco as well, to use and develop the young talent we have if a veteran like Martin is not working.

The other scenario is trading Martin and a good pick or F asset for a young, physical D with good upside. Needs to be a team with plenty of cap room like FLA but I'm not as sure as some people that there will be a high demand for Martin.

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06-02-2012, 10:45 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Most likely but I'd say it's about 60/40 in favor, so not a sure thing by any means. But I hope it happens. I think we can find the D help we need from Despres and Morrow, if Bylsma just gets the balls to do it. Partly Shero needs to put some pressure on Disco as well, to use and develop the young talent we have if a veteran like Martin is not working.

The other scenario is trading Martin and a good pick or F asset for a young, physical D with good upside. Needs to be a team with plenty of cap room like FLA but I'm not as sure as some people that there will be a high demand for Martin.
There definitely won't be a demand for Paul Martin, he's there for teams who are desperate for a top 4 D man and/or the teams who miss out on the guys like Suter, Carle, Allen, etc.

I'm not sure Shero even trades Martin this year. While we all think Despres is ready, the Pens don't want to rush their prospects.

I think the Pens will keep Martin into training camp and let Despres earn a spot on the roster, if he does great where the Pens think he's ready, then they can explore a trade with Martin, but if Despres still needs work, keep Martin and let Despres develop in WBS with occasional call-ups.

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06-02-2012, 11:00 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Sh00terMcGavin View Post
http://e9b8db0d-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.g...attredirects=0

Someone posted this on the main board and I thought it was really interesting. If you scroll down and find the Pens, you'll see just how dominant Staal's season was.

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Old
06-02-2012, 11:32 AM
  #35
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Absolute beast, how did he compare to other team's top defensive players?

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Old
06-02-2012, 11:33 AM
  #36
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A little help for those who have trouble with reading the chart:

Blue means positive relative Corsi (outshooting opponent relative to without the player), white means negative relative Corsi, the bigger the bubble the larger the number so a large white bubble will be a player who is getting badly outshot while on ice. QualComp is a measure of competition based on Corsi. OZ start is the % of nonneutral zone starts in the offensive zone.

In VERY general terms, those to the left are defensively oriented, to the right are offensive. Players on top play top lines, players below play depth lines. In terms of descriptors, the top left quadrant are "shut down" players who play tough(own zone) minutes against top lines, top right are "two way" players who can score but also play top lines, lower right are "sheltered" players who play against depth lines in the offensive zone and lower left "less sheltered" lines who play tough minutes against depth lines.

Remember, all this is even strength data. One downside is that there isn't enough data regarding shot quality and combining it with Corsi to get really good expected goal values.

So Staal, despite playing against by far the hardest competition among the Pens, seemed to be driving the play forward and generating shots.

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06-02-2012, 11:52 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by wej20 View Post
Absolute beast, how did he compare to other team's top defensive players?
I took a look at that by filtering some players and seeing their stats here . I was a bit surprised at how well he stacked up. Staal was pretty comparable to Datsyuk, Kopitar and Backes in usage and results(also looked at Bolland Nielsen Toews Kesler Malhotra Callahan Sutter). Staal played the hardest competition by Corsi QoC, had a positive relative Corsi, had a pretty low Ozone start and one of the higher point productions. For sake of argument I included Sutter, who also played tough minutes against top lines, didn't fair that well, getting badly outshot and pretty poor point production.


Last edited by Fogel: 06-02-2012 at 11:57 AM. Reason: add
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Old
06-02-2012, 12:07 PM
  #38
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I don't think we'll be able to trade Martin until after the first wave of UFA action after July 1. Teams who miss out on the Suter's, Garrison's, Jackman's, Salvador's et al, might then come calling.

It's a process, for sure. That's why I would be more active in trying to move an Orpik or Michalek at this time if I were Shero. Their perceived value is greater at this point, imo.

As for Staal, we need to keep him. Period.

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06-02-2012, 12:10 PM
  #39
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But Staal's overrated.

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Old
06-02-2012, 12:13 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Fogel View Post
I took a look at that by filtering some players and seeing their stats here . I was a bit surprised at how well he stacked up. Staal was pretty comparable to Datsyuk, Kopitar and Backes in usage and results(also looked at Bolland Nielsen Toews Kesler Malhotra Callahan Sutter). Staal played the hardest competition by Corsi QoC, had a positive relative Corsi, had a pretty low Ozone start and one of the higher point productions. For sake of argument I included Sutter, who also played tough minutes against top lines, didn't fair that well, getting badly outshot and pretty poor point production.
Thanks Fogel.

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Old
06-02-2012, 12:34 PM
  #41
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PHX, Calgary, Carolina are my top three trade partners as far as what they can offer to improve our team / deals making both teams better. Deals with MN, TOR, BUF, stand to make the other team better right away and possibly have us taking a step back in the short term.

Remember: In order to maximize the trade value of Staal, if the Pens are unable to sign him to an extension, they will likely grant his agent permission to speak with other teams. That means that Staal is going to effectilvely supply a list of teams he is willing to speak with. Regardless of what teams that we may like (hypothetical) trade proposals from, it's irrelevant if Staal isn't interested in signing an extension there.

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Old
06-02-2012, 12:42 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by mpp9 View Post
But Staal's overrated.
Let me traslate HF tradeboard speak.

Staal is overrated = Why won't you agree to take our collection of dog crap for him, why? My life is incomplete until somebody that I do not know and never will know from HF agrees to my ridiculous proposal.

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06-02-2012, 12:50 PM
  #43
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Let me traslate HF tradeboard speak.

Staal is overrated = Why won't you agree to take our collection of dog crap for him, why? My life is incomplete until somebody that I do not know and never will know from HF agrees to my ridiculous proposal.
It's hilarious to see Leafs fans try to convince themselves that the 5th overall in a weak draft is more likely to become a scoring line center than someone who's already filled that role for two years.

I want one of two things to happen so HF can be trolled. Staal is traded for a king's ransom or he puts up 60+ Pts as our 3C.

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06-02-2012, 01:18 PM
  #44
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I honestly always thought that the speculation that Staal would be available because he supposedly wanted a 'bigger role' was patently ridiculous and falls apart with even the barest of examination. Most Pens' fans seem to think the same. I posted a poll on the Pens' board a few weeks ago asking about what people thought would happen with Staal and the majority of well over 100 responses had him resigning with the Pens. But let us examine the speculation that has launched a thousand threads. That Staal is supposedly unhappy with his role:

1. Sid and Geno keep him off the ice, don't they?

He averaged 20:03 minutes per game this year and 21:21 per game last year. So he is playing first line minutes already.

2. He is held back by playing behind Sid and Geno, right?

Jordan Staal had a PPG of 0.81 this year. That puts him as the top line center on almost half the teams in the NHL:

Anaheim (0.70 Getzlaf)
Buffalo (0.55 Roy)
Calgary (0.74 Jokinen)
Colorado (0.68 O'Reilly)
Columbus (0.55 Brassard)
Florida (0.71 Weiss)
Minnesota (0.80 Koivu)
Montreal (0.74 Desharnais)
Nashville (0.71 Fisher)
NY Rangers (0.80 Richards)
Phoenix (0.45 Vermette)
St. Louis (0.66 Backes)
Toronto (0.69 Grabovski)
Winnipeg (0.62 Little)

All while playing stellar defense and being assigned a role in shutting down the other team's top player.

3. Staal does not get the first team PP time.

Really? He is leaving because of that? Having watched Staal for six years now he does not seem the type to throw hissy fits over something that trivial, but I am sure some assurances could be made if that is what is ticking him off so much.

4. His feelings are feeling the ouchies over being called a third line center.

Do I really need to address this one?

Look at the above collection of reasons given why Staal would be demanding out. It seems to be at the very least awfully thin when you spell them out, don't they? Look on the other side of the ledger. By all accounts he enjoys his time here. He has won a cup already and the core of this team seems likely to be locked up and one of the cup favorites year after year. The two best players in the NHL are his teammates. He has been able to grow and is valued on the Pens. Other players give discounts to come to this team.

I have no crystal ball. But actually would be surprised if he did not sign with the Pens. The reasons given for him not to are just way too thin. It might happen, but a smart person would put the odds against a trade.

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Old
06-02-2012, 02:49 PM
  #45
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while I somewhat agree with your premise and believe there's a good chance he stays here, you can look at that chart and see how much different Staal's role is than Sid or Geno's. There is more that differentiates a role on a team than ice time. Who does he play against? The other team's best players. Where does he take face-offs? In our own zone. Who does he play with? Checking line forwards and defensive D. Oh and when he steps on the ice the main goal of his line is to stop the other team from scoring, not to score themselves: that's bonus.

He has solid production, you are right. But wouldn't there be a piece of you that would want to see how much better that could be given offensive line mates, powerplay time, offensive zone starts and your coach telling you to get out there and score? Not to mention the extra money that comes along with that extra production.

And you can't really just ignore that he was a 2nd line center for the majority of this season. And even with that, one look at that chart posted above shows you the major difference between the kind of ice time he gets compared to Sid or Geno.

Like I said I think you are right. I think it's pretty close to 50/50 if he stays or goes, but I'd err on the side of staying.

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06-02-2012, 03:11 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Ragamuffin Gunner View Post
Well Dobber's report came out today and like I predicted Saad wasn't near the top 15, or the top 30. Saad is ranked the 54th best forward prospect by Dobber and has an upside of Ryan Malone with a 3-year-potential (average of best three years) being 45 points.

On the flip side, in the 2011 report Brayden Schenn was the 1st ranked forward with an upside of Mike Richards and a 3YP of 73 points.

But Saad and Scheen are basically the same thing, right?
Needless to say I disagree with Dobber, and your line of thinking whenever I've said MULTIPLE times that Schenn is much better than Saad. Good to hear your straw man though.

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06-02-2012, 03:51 PM
  #47
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while I somewhat agree with your premise and believe there's a good chance he stays here, you can look at that chart and see how much different Staal's role is than Sid or Geno's. There is more that differentiates a role on a team than ice time. Who does he play against? The other team's best players. Where does he take face-offs? In our own zone. Who does he play with? Checking line forwards and defensive D. Oh and when he steps on the ice the main goal of his line is to stop the other team from scoring, not to score themselves: that's bonus.

He has solid production, you are right. But wouldn't there be a piece of you that would want to see how much better that could be given offensive line mates, powerplay time, offensive zone starts and your coach telling you to get out there and score? Not to mention the extra money that comes along with that extra production.

And you can't really just ignore that he was a 2nd line center for the majority of this season. And even with that, one look at that chart posted above shows you the major difference between the kind of ice time he gets compared to Sid or Geno.

Like I said I think you are right. I think it's pretty close to 50/50 if he stays or goes, but I'd err on the side of staying.
Yep. I don't see Staal leaving b/c of PP time or grinder mold linemates. But I do think he questions if he's outgrown his role with our team. He can be a great #2C on a lot of playoff teams.

The way I see it if we want to keep the 3C model longterm, you have to use all three centers as your top 3 offensive players. Doubleshift them on the wing. Drop Sid/Geno down to the 4th line and allow Staal some ES shifts with Neal/Kuni/etc. That'll make the opposing coach's life extremely difficult.

I'd like to see us put together a 4th line that can go up against anyone at any time in a game. Use that as a go-to checking line. Thus allowing us to throw Staal up in the top 6 more often and have that line come out after.

This was all alluded to by DB over the course of the regular season when he was asked how he was going to use all three centers. Stacking the top 6 when down and finding a proper checking line so Staal can see more offensive zone starts is key.

Maybe Vitale can be a reliable defensive center for us. I wanted to see us bring in a Peverley type. Someone who can move up and down the lineup at wing or center. Fill that role of checking line center, fill a hole on wing in the top 6 and (god forbid) if two of our centers go down, he can fill in as a #2C.

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06-02-2012, 03:58 PM
  #48
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We have the chance to trade Staal for some depth (and possible ELC prosps) that can really help us. Will the parts alone be better than Staal? Probably not. Will the sum of the parts be better than Staal? Who knows.

In deciding what to do...its tough. I can see the argument either way. I'd like to keep him in favor of trading him. The only reason...if Malkin or Crosby ever go down...we have the 2C right there. Too valuable to want to give up.

There's the catch...for us to keep Staal and give him the $$$ he'll be happy with...over trading him for a good package...Staal HAS to perform. Simple as that. We need mid season Staal...not last part of the season Staal. Playoff Staal. Not just for a couple weeks...but all year long no matter who is in the lineup or where he plays.

For us to make the commitment...he has to be worth the money every game. It will be absolute death for the Pens if he pulls a Martin. We can't afford that.

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06-02-2012, 04:12 PM
  #49
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We have the chance to trade Staal for some depth (and possible ELC prosps) that can really help us. Will the parts alone be better than Staal? Probably not. Will the sum of the parts be better than Staal? Who knows.

In deciding what to do...its tough. I can see the argument either way. I'd like to keep him in favor of trading him. The only reason...if Malkin or Crosby ever go down...we have the 2C right there. Too valuable to want to give up.

There's the catch...for us to keep Staal and give him the $$$ he'll be happy with...over trading him for a good package...Staal HAS to perform. Simple as that. We need mid season Staal...not last part of the season Staal. Playoff Staal. Not just for a couple weeks...but all year long no matter who is in the lineup or where he plays.

For us to make the commitment...he has to be worth the money every game. It will be absolute death for the Pens if he pulls a Martin. We can't afford that.
Exactly. That's been the constant issue with Staal...consistency. I'm not saying the guy has to be a point per game player, but he needs to show up every game if we're gonna pay him what he wants. I'd take that chance, but who knows how it'll turn out. I trust that this man will figure it out...

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06-02-2012, 05:47 PM
  #50
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Needless to say I disagree with Dobber, and your line of thinking whenever I've said MULTIPLE times that Schenn is much better than Saad. Good to hear your straw man though.
You said that the difference between a top 5 prospect (Scheen) wasn't that much different from a top 15 prospect (Saad), which is completely wrong. And not only because Saad isn't even close to a top 15 prospect or top 30.

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