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Wherein we pin our salvation on someone besides Guerrero (wallpaper/avys - posts 1&2)

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Old
06-04-2012, 12:49 PM
  #51
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Always find it hard to get pumped for the draft. Due to the fact that unless you have a top 2-3 pick, the player you select won't see MLB or even AAA action for 4-5 maybe even 6 years. That's a long long time. I've always wondered why they don't move back the draft eligible age. Meh. I'll still be sitting and waiting for the 1st round despite all that.

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06-04-2012, 01:43 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tootoo Train View Post
Always find it hard to get pumped for the draft. Due to the fact that unless you have a top 2-3 pick, the player you select won't see MLB or even AAA action for 4-5 maybe even 6 years. That's a long long time. I've always wondered why they don't move back the draft eligible age. Meh. I'll still be sitting and waiting for the 1st round despite all that.
I don't get pumped for the draft because the MLB draft is such a gigantic crap shoot. It feels like in a good year, anywhere from 1/3rd to 1/2 of 1st rounders selected will amount to nothing, and the best players out of a draft will likely be 10th to 20th rounders that nobody even cares about until they're suddenly in the major leagues and are performing.

Just for illustrative purposes, let's look at Toronto's history of 1st rounders, starting in 2008 (giving us a 4 year development window on which to judge) and working back until 1983 (that gives us 25 years of drafting)

2008 David Cooper
2007 Kevin Ahrens (16), J.P. Arencibia (21), Brett Cecil (38), Justin Jackson (45),& Trystan Magnuson (56)
2006 Travis Snider (14)
2005 Ricky Romero (6)
2004 David Purcey (16) & Zach Jackson (32)
2003 Aaron Hill (13)
2002 Russ Adams (14)
2001 Gabe Gross (15)
2000 Miguel Negron (18) & Dustin McGowan (33)
1999 Alex Rios (19)
1998 Felipe Lopez (8)
1997 Vernon Wells (5)
1996 Billy Koch (4), Joe Lawrence (16), & Pete Tucci (31)
1995 Roy Halladay (17)
1994 Kevin Witt (28)
1993 Chris Carpenter (15), Matt Farner (37), Jeremy Lee (40), & Mark Lukasiewicz (41)
1992Shannon Stewart (19), Todd Steverson (25), & Brandon Cromer (34)
1991 Shawn Green (16), Jeff Ware (35), & Dante Powell (42)
1990 Steve Karsay (22)
1989 Eddy Zosky (19)
1988 Ed Sprague (25)
1987 Alex Sanchez (13)
1986 Earl Sanders (26)
1985 Greg David (25)
1984 no 1st round pick
1983 Matt Stark

Italics indicate the player was a supplemental 1st round pick.

If we're generous and call David Cooper a major leaguer now. The final tally is:
Star players: 6 (Romero, Wells, Halladay, Carpenter, & Green)
Established/regular major leaguers: 15
Bench/Fringe/AAAA players: 10
Busts: 9

Total players selected: 40

For the sake of laziness, busts were anyone who played 0 MLB games. Bench and fringe guys were anyone who had at least 1 MLB game, but failed to crack the "established" category. Established/Regular major leaguers was somewhat more subjective. For the most part I was looking for at least a full season's worth of MLB games for a position player, or 50+ games for a pitcher, but i was also willing to bend that if I felt it was justified (for example, David Purcey has made it to 87 career games, but he's not really a major leauger. David Cooper I counted here too even though he's at 36 just because I believe he'll probably play a good portion of this season on the roster.)

So that's just 21 players who are major league regulars or better out of a total of 40. So barely 50% of the time the Jays have snagged a guy who at least carves out an OK career in the majors. And this is not something that is specific to the blue jays. I bet that if you look at the draft histories of most teams, they're going to be similar. That's why it's probably not as good to get caught up in the draft until we've had a couple of seasons at least to see picks develop in the minors. Because even though the NHL draft has a decent bust rate among 1st rounders, it's still easier to expect that you'll at least get a good player out of your 1st. With the MLB draft it's debatable whether you'll even get an OK one or anything at all.

I'm actually tinkering with a quick and dirty WAR variant of this analysis that I might have up later today. We'll see.

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Old
06-04-2012, 01:43 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tootoo Train View Post
Always find it hard to get pumped for the draft. Due to the fact that unless you have a top 2-3 pick, the player you select won't see MLB or even AAA action for 4-5 maybe even 6 years. That's a long long time. I've always wondered why they don't move back the draft eligible age. Meh. I'll still be sitting and waiting for the 1st round despite all that.
What's hard to get excited about the draft for me is how painfully long the first few rounds take to complete.

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06-04-2012, 01:44 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by TorontoMarleauLeafs View Post
I really want McCullers. Has an electric fastball. I'd be willing to take a chance on Giolito too. Obviously you pick one of those guy with #17 so we get a pick next year if they don't sign. #22 better be a guy that we can sign.

Also Astros have said that they're taking Appel #1 overall.
Me too. He's got electric stuff and I know there are some concerns whether he could be a starter but Jays have done a good job developing pitchers and even turned a few drafted relievers into starters. He is already starting now and showing improvement so you could have potentially a top of the rotation starter in McCullers. If not, you get a backend bullpen guy with electric stuff.

Other players that I would really like at 17 or 22: Trahan/Dahl/Sims/Eflin/Smoral... DJ Davis is an intriguing player. Said to have 80 speed and plays CF.

OJ Mayo mock draft: McCullers at 17 and DJ Davis at 22.

I'm not sure what Keith Law mock is. Maybe someone with insider can post it.

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06-04-2012, 01:54 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Kevin Goldstein mock draft:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...commentMessage

Has us taking McCullers at 17 and Coulter at 22 (says its an unprotected pick but that's an error on his part).

BBA has us taking Giolito at 17 and Gallo at 22. http://ht.ly/blw0B
I'd say the McCullers/Coulter combo makes the most sense. The jays will have to reach at 22 to sign whoever they draft at 17. If it's Giolito or McCullers I can't see them drafting someone ranked as high as Gallo with the 22 pick. He'll simply cost too much to sign and won't allow the flex in money the jays will likely need to lock up the first pick

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06-04-2012, 02:02 PM
  #56
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Oh, and because I know people have been asking about SABR stat explanations and reading material, I just stumbled across this set of links from the Yahoo blog "Big League Stew" that encompasses a series of discussions the blogger had explaining a wide vareity of advanced metrics, from the popular (WAR, FIP, UZR, normalized ERA) to the more obscure (SIERA, Win Shares, wOBA).

It's not comprehensive, but it should get the point across for anyone who wants to know more about the stats that tend to get used most often. And I would implore the anti-SABR people (you know who you are) to at least give them a read so that you can maybe try to understand why the people you bash and denigrate see some value in them. At the very least you might be able to come up with more effective counterarguments to their use than "What a bunch of nerds! Baseball isn't played by computers! See, I can make up gobbldeygook numbers that mean nothing! That proves your position is bull****! I win!"

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06-04-2012, 02:08 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Me too. He's got electric stuff and I know there are some concerns whether he could be a starter but Jays have done a good job developing pitchers and even turned a few drafted relievers into starters. He is already starting now and showing improvement so you could have potentially a top of the rotation starter in McCullers. If not, you get a backend bullpen guy with electric stuff.

Other players that I would really like at 17 or 22: Trahan/Dahl/Sims/Eflin/Smoral... DJ Davis is an intriguing player. Said to have 80 speed and plays CF.

OJ Mayo mock draft: McCullers at 17 and DJ Davis at 22.

I'm not sure what Keith Law mock is. Maybe someone with insider can post it.
man I never noticed how big Smoral is. 6'8" lefty yikes. Roache/Russell/Shaffer/Heaney are the guys I like

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06-04-2012, 02:10 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Oh, and because I know people have been asking about SABR stat explanations and reading material, I just stumbled across this set of links from the Yahoo blog "Big League Stew" that encompasses a series of discussions the blogger had explaining a wide vareity of advanced metrics, from the popular (WAR, FIP, UZR, normalized ERA) to the more obscure (SIERA, Win Shares, wOBA).

It's not comprehensive, but it should get the point across for anyone who wants to know more about the stats that tend to get used most often. And I would implore the anti-SABR people (you know who you are) to at least give them a read so that you can maybe try to understand why the people you bash and denigrate see some value in them. At the very least you might be able to come up with more effective counterarguments to their use than "What a bunch of nerds! Baseball isn't played by computers! See, I can make up gobbldeygook numbers that mean nothing! That proves your position is bull****! I win!"


In all seriousness, I'll keep an open mind. Can't do it right now, (filling out time-sheets), but I'll find the time to read through it. I've never disregarded advanced stats completely. I find myself using BABIP and WAR quite frequently now, so I'm starting the lean into the dark side of the moon.

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06-04-2012, 02:14 PM
  #59
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holy crap i never went into that much detail there nemesis.

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06-04-2012, 02:30 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
I'd say the McCullers/Coulter combo makes the most sense. The jays will have to reach at 22 to sign whoever they draft at 17. If it's Giolito or McCullers I can't see them drafting someone ranked as high as Gallo with the 22 pick. He'll simply cost too much to sign and won't allow the flex in money the jays will likely need to lock up the first pick
Coulter still seems like a bit of a reach. McCullers asking price can't be much more than 2M even with Boras as his agent. I would pass on him if he's asking for something like 3M and we're forced to get reach guys to sign for underslot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
man I never noticed how big Smoral is. 6'8" lefty yikes. Roache/Russell/Shaffer/Heaney are the guys I like
Yeah I like Smoral a lot. Throws in the low 90's and can touch 95, has some projection left and could drop a bit in the draft due to missing nearly the whole season with a foot injury. Eflin is kind of that guy too who has good stuff, good size, projection but also missed some time with injury.

I don't really want bats other than a select few like Dahl/Davis/Trahan and maybe Hawkins/Gallo who are really risky but also have tons of upside. Don't want a college bat at all.

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06-04-2012, 02:48 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Coulter still seems like a bit of a reach. McCullers asking price can't be much more than 2M even with Boras as his agent. I would pass on him if he's asking for something like 3M and we're forced to get reach guys to sign for underslot.



Yeah I like Smoral a lot. Throws in the low 90's and can touch 95, has some projection left and could drop a bit in the draft due to missing nearly the whole season with a foot injury. Eflin is kind of that guy too who has good stuff, good size, projection but also missed some time with injury.

I don't really want bats other than a select few like Dahl/Davis/Trahan and maybe Hawkins/Gallo who are really risky but also have tons of upside. Don't want a college bat at all.
I'm really hoping hoping they go heavy positional players this year. Not much in the way of 2B that I noticed anyway in the early going. I know what you mean with the college bat and they aren't my favourite but I really want less early pitchers early and more early bats.

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06-04-2012, 02:50 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Oh, and because I know people have been asking about SABR stat explanations and reading material, I just stumbled across this set of links from the Yahoo blog "Big League Stew" that encompasses a series of discussions the blogger had explaining a wide vareity of advanced metrics, from the popular (WAR, FIP, UZR, normalized ERA) to the more obscure (SIERA, Win Shares, wOBA).

It's not comprehensive, but it should get the point across for anyone who wants to know more about the stats that tend to get used most often. And I would implore the anti-SABR people (you know who you are) to at least give them a read so that you can maybe try to understand why the people you bash and denigrate see some value in them. At the very least you might be able to come up with more effective counterarguments to their use than "What a bunch of nerds! Baseball isn't played by computers! See, I can make up gobbldeygook numbers that mean nothing! That proves your position is bull****! I win!"
Just took a quick look at UZR. I'll need much more time to read through that. Is there any way of saving this post for future reading?

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06-04-2012, 04:14 PM
  #63
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We will see, he throws right as well. I'm not sure he will hit for much power. Smith Jr has a beautiful swing, similar to Griffey.
I didn't necessarily mean that he'd be the best fit in LF, just that if you wanted to include him, it wouldn't be at 3B

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06-04-2012, 04:15 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Tootoo Train View Post
Always find it hard to get pumped for the draft. Due to the fact that unless you have a top 2-3 pick, the player you select won't see MLB or even AAA action for 4-5 maybe even 6 years. That's a long long time. I've always wondered why they don't move back the draft eligible age. Meh. I'll still be sitting and waiting for the 1st round despite all that.
2009 draftee Drew Huchison says hi.

But you're right, it's a crap shoot.

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06-04-2012, 04:18 PM
  #65
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I'm really hoping hoping they go heavy positional players this year. Not much in the way of 2B that I noticed anyway in the early going. I know what you mean with the college bat and they aren't my favourite but I really want less early pitchers early and more early bats.
I think very few 2B are drafted as such, most are converted SS

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06-04-2012, 04:36 PM
  #66
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When is the draft? Tonight?

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06-04-2012, 04:37 PM
  #67
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When is the draft? Tonight?
7PM tonight.

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06-04-2012, 04:39 PM
  #68
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we shall see if Alford or Davis become jays. I think if Davis is there he will.

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06-04-2012, 04:45 PM
  #69
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7PM tonight.
Weird. I thought I Was going to be missing it today, hopefully I get home in time for the Jays picks.

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06-04-2012, 04:51 PM
  #70
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I'll say at #17 Gavin Cecchini and at #22 Zach Eflin

Eflin reminds me alot of Aaron Sanchez

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06-04-2012, 04:57 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Me too. He's got electric stuff and I know there are some concerns whether he could be a starter but Jays have done a good job developing pitchers and even turned a few drafted relievers into starters. He is already starting now and showing improvement so you could have potentially a top of the rotation starter in McCullers. If not, you get a backend bullpen guy with electric stuff.

Other players that I would really like at 17 or 22: Trahan/Dahl/Sims/Eflin/Smoral... DJ Davis is an intriguing player. Said to have 80 speed and plays CF.

OJ Mayo mock draft: McCullers at 17 and DJ Davis at 22.

I'm not sure what Keith Law mock is. Maybe someone with insider can post it.
He plays CF but doesn't he have a crappy arm? Also doesn't he have a below average hit tool?

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06-04-2012, 05:00 PM
  #72
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He plays CF but doesn't he have a crappy arm? Also doesn't he have a below average hit tool?
His bat wasn't great before but he's apparently made adjustments and is hitting better now. He does not have a strong arm.

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06-04-2012, 05:01 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Coulter still seems like a bit of a reach. McCullers asking price can't be much more than 2M even with Boras as his agent. I would pass on him if he's asking for something like 3M and we're forced to get reach guys to sign for underslot.



Yeah I like Smoral a lot. Throws in the low 90's and can touch 95, has some projection left and could drop a bit in the draft due to missing nearly the whole season with a foot injury. Eflin is kind of that guy too who has good stuff, good size, projection but also missed some time with injury.

I don't really want bats other than a select few like Dahl/Davis/Trahan and maybe Hawkins/Gallo who are really risky but also have tons of upside. Don't want a college bat at all.
Completely agree. Also a bit risky to take a catcher out of high school. They haven't fully developed and your not sure if they can stick there once fully grown. They usually have to learn a new position.

I'd try and take an infielder with that pick. Maybe Gallo is still around at 22? Excellent raw power and we lack big power bats at 1B in the system with the exception of Anderson.

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06-04-2012, 05:02 PM
  #74
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Jeff Francis now a FA and used his out clause. Some pretty good AAA numbers and 65/18 K/BB. Really think he should be given a shot

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06-04-2012, 05:04 PM
  #75
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His bat wasn't great before but he's apparently made adjustments and is hitting better now. He does not have a strong arm.
Ya, I was trying to remember if I was thinking of the right player. Woulda been ugly if I had the wrong guy.

Ya not really interested in taking a guy like him with our 1st rounder. Screams Rajai Davis 2.0 to me. Not that thats a bad thing, just looking for a bit more well-rounded player. Hit tool is more important to me personally than anything else.

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