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Old
06-06-2012, 06:25 AM
  #826
PocketNines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EastonBlues22 View Post
IMO, if we're going the futures route in a potential trade, then we should be getting back a known (and quality) prospect already developing in someone's pipeline if we move Stewart. I believe his NHL track record, upside, age, and contract status should make him worth decidedly more than a mid-first draft pick to some teams.
I guess how I'd put it is if the Blues could trade Stewart either for Joe Morrow or the 16th pick in this year's draft, I choose Morrow, no question. Here's my preferred order of operations on a Stewart trade:

1. Package for a top-two center (e.g., Staal) OR for a bonafide #2 LHD (e.g., Yandle, Giordano).
2. Close to straight up for a known prospect (e.g. Morrow, Despres, Gormley, Brodin) at defense or center. Minor balancing if necessary.
3. Straight up for a first round pick in 2012 (e.g., Washington with their situation seems like a good fit since 1. They have the 11th 2. They're losing Semin and not replacing him with Kuznetsov 3. Eastern team).
4. 2013 1st and 2013 3d as compensation for offer sheet.
---- GAP ----
5. Pay him 3.25M for one year and hope like hell he hits the bullseye sweet spot production-wise where you can retain him as a solid player without having to overpay and lose other guys.
6. Trade him for a totally redundant piece (e.g., Gunnarsson), as now you've traded an asset for something easily available on the market.

Reason I'm talking about the third item on the list is it strikes me as more likely than some of the other options. In a CBA summer, #4 is even less likely than normal and offer sheets are rare though Stewart's situation could tempt a few teams who play more wide open styles or have trouble attracting free agents. #1 would be fantastic but won't be easy to believe in until it's already happened. Plus, the guys we're targeting play for teams whose fans generally hate the idea of Stewart being the centerpiece in such a trade. #2 idea, in part because we're on a board biased toward higher quality prospects, fans tend to hate the idea of trading the guy they've been excitedly following for a suspect player who had a terrible year.


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06-06-2012, 08:56 AM
  #827
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If Stewart were to be dealt I would think the Blues would aquire someone that can play now. I can't see him being dealt for a draft pick or picks.

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06-06-2012, 09:21 AM
  #828
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All right let me ask an open question so we can get some responses (or at least a thought process if you choose not to make a list). If you take the followng group of wingers, which ones do you expect Stewart to best in production next season:

McDonald
Oshie
Perron
Tarasenko
Steen
D'Agostini

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06-06-2012, 09:30 AM
  #829
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
All right let me ask an open question so we can get some responses (or at least a thought process if you choose not to make a list). If you take the followng group of wingers, which ones do you expect Stewart to best in production next season:

McDonald
Oshie
Perron
Tarasenko
Steen
D'Agostini
It really depends. I see him outproducing D'Agostini regardless. If Stewart takes his offseason workout routine seriously, he has the ability to outproduce most of those players offensively. If McDonald stays healthy he will be the best of the bunch. I could see Oshie, Perron, Steen and Stewart all around 50, with one of them closer to 60.

If Stewart comes to camp with the same level of conditioning, then it will be another long season for him. We won't know what type of Stewart we have until camp starts, and even then, we really won't know until the regular season starts. It will be pretty obvious in the first few games if he will be able to succeed or if it will be another long year with him.

A well conditioned Stewart should be at least 3rd on that list.

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06-06-2012, 09:44 AM
  #830
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I understand why Blues fans want to sell themselves on the narrative, but 20-30 point increase in production because, okay, I'm serial you guys, I'm gonna take this offseason all serious and stuff ... it's just not reality. Last summer, Berglund had an awesome WC and had these interviews where his maturity and focus came into sharp relief ... and what happened? How well he eats and how many extra reps he does in training isn't going to teach his brain how to know to anticipate the play.

I guess I should ask the question in a more hard line way. Make it your official prediction, no qualified maybes. You have to say whether you believe Stewart will or won't outperform Perron. Will or won't outperform Oshie. Will or won't outperform Tarasenko. Will or won't outperform Steen. Etc. Gun to your head where do you think Stewart finishes (all injuries being equal).

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06-06-2012, 10:07 AM
  #831
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I understand why Blues fans want to sell themselves on the narrative, but 20-30 point increase in production because, okay, I'm serial you guys, I'm gonna take this offseason all serious and stuff ... it's just not reality. Last summer, Berglund had an awesome WC and had these interviews where his maturity and focus came into sharp relief ... and what happened? How well he eats and how many extra reps he does in training isn't going to teach his brain how to know to anticipate the play.

I guess I should ask the question in a more hard line way. Make it your official prediction, no qualified maybes. You have to say whether you believe Stewart will or won't outperform Perron. Will or won't outperform Oshie. Will or won't outperform Tarasenko. Will or won't outperform Steen. Etc. Gun to your head where do you think Stewart finishes (all injuries being equal).
Berglund went from 26 to 52 in his 2nd to 3rd year, and that was all mental stuff, just like it is with Stewart.

Everything about athletes on any level is preparation. In Berglund's case, he was prepared, but he didn't produce, and that happens. In Stewart's case, he didn't prepare, but when you don't prepare, almost always you won't produce. Everything is about preparation for him to have a successful season, both mentally and physically.

The thing that made Stewart an instant success with us when we got him was his skating ability, and he didn't have that at all last season.

Management are the only people that will have any idea right now if he will be able to bounce back, as they are the only ones that will know if he is training the proper way during the summer. So anything that we say or think doesn't mean anything until we actually see him in camp.

If he is kept, I think he will get at least 20 goals and will be around 50 points. Stewart just needs to be more aggressive and get that skating ability back.

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06-06-2012, 10:09 AM
  #832
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I understand why Blues fans want to sell themselves on the narrative, but 20-30 point increase in production because, okay, I'm serial you guys, I'm gonna take this offseason all serious and stuff ... it's just not reality. Last summer, Berglund had an awesome WC and had these interviews where his maturity and focus came into sharp relief ... and what happened? How well he eats and how many extra reps he does in training isn't going to teach his brain how to know to anticipate the play.

I guess I should ask the question in a more hard line way. Make it your official prediction, no qualified maybes. You have to say whether you believe Stewart will or won't outperform Perron. Will or won't outperform Oshie. Will or won't outperform Tarasenko. Will or won't outperform Steen. Etc. Gun to your head where do you think Stewart finishes (all injuries being equal).
I agree with bleedblue1223 here. I see him in that 50-60 point range, along with Perron, Oshie, Steen and Tarasenko. McDonald is the only one clearly ahead of him and D'Agostini clearly behind.

Stewart was in the 50-60 point range the 2 seasons prior, so it isn't like there is no basis for him to hit that mark again. Also, while him playing in a more open style and with a top C would certainly help, he was close to PPG when he arrived here.

The more I look at the Stewart situation, the less sense it makes to trade him. Trading him straight up will probably get us the type of player that we could pick up in FA anyway. Going after the LHD we all want, then Stewart is going to be the + in that kind of deal and that isn't worth it. Trading him for futures? I don't see anyone giving us a top prospect at the moment.

Moving him for a mid-first in a painfully average year? I think that Stewart to have a decent season next year is a safer bet than the pick. In which case we could move him for a better prospect next season and have Rattie much further along as his replacement.

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06-06-2012, 10:47 AM
  #833
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I see Stewart outscoring D'Agostini and Tarasenko. All the other guys get more ice time and PP time. They get more ice time because they play the system better, so it is mostly Stewart's fault anyway. If all ice time was equal, Stewart should outscore Steen as well. Perron and Mac are too good offensively for Stewart to reach their production, and I would imagine he would end up being around the same amount of points as Oshie. Again, that's if all ice time is equal, which it certainly will not be. Whichever team gets Stewart is going to be extremely happy because he's still a guy with 35 goal potential in the right system. Sadly, this is probably the worst place for Stewart to be.

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06-06-2012, 11:06 AM
  #834
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Do you guys believe Jackman will be a Blue next season?

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06-06-2012, 11:06 AM
  #835
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Any interest in Rudulov ? I think he's a FA. Tarasenko might like having him around.



edit- NM, didn't know Nashville still owned his right. Probably not a Hitch type of player either. Doesn't like to play defense.


Last edited by Mike Liut: 06-06-2012 at 11:14 AM.
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06-06-2012, 11:08 AM
  #836
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyMo35 View Post
I see Stewart outscoring D'Agostini and Tarasenko. All the other guys get more ice time and PP time. They get more ice time because they play the system better, so it is mostly Stewart's fault anyway. If all ice time was equal, Stewart should outscore Steen as well. Perron and Mac are too good offensively for Stewart to reach their production, and I would imagine he would end up being around the same amount of points as Oshie. Again, that's if all ice time is equal, which it certainly will not be. Whichever team gets Stewart is going to be extremely happy because he's still a guy with 35 goal potential in the right system. Sadly, this is probably the worst place for Stewart to be.

Not a chance

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06-06-2012, 11:10 AM
  #837
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I understand why Blues fans want to sell themselves on the narrative, but 20-30 point increase in production because, okay, I'm serial you guys, I'm gonna take this offseason all serious and stuff ... it's just not reality. Last summer, Berglund had an awesome WC and had these interviews where his maturity and focus came into sharp relief ... and what happened? How well he eats and how many extra reps he does in training isn't going to teach his brain how to know to anticipate the play.

I guess I should ask the question in a more hard line way. Make it your official prediction, no qualified maybes. You have to say whether you believe Stewart will or won't outperform Perron. Will or won't outperform Oshie. Will or won't outperform Tarasenko. Will or won't outperform Steen. Etc. Gun to your head where do you think Stewart finishes (all injuries being equal).
Berglund got stuck with Stewart for 2/3 of the season and no McDonald. Do you think Backes' point totals would look much different than Berglund's if he had to play between the two offensive black holes on his wings for the majority of the year?

My gut feeling is next year's team is going to be a tad bit less effective on the defensive side but more effective on the offensive side. Assuming all injuries being equal with purely the personnel we have as of today.

McDonald
Backes
Stewart/Perron
Perron/Stewart
Berglund(if McDonald is his LW)
Oshie
Steen/Tarasenko
Tarasenko/Steen

I would also slot Pietrangelo 3rd or 4th and Shattenkirk 7th or 8th if we included d-men.

This is coming from someone who was not a fan of Stewart at all this past season.

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06-06-2012, 11:16 AM
  #838
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I wouldn't really be in favor of trading Stewart at this time. I value him more that what I think he's likely currently worth in the trade market. If Army can actually trade him high then I'd be fine with trading Stewie for the right deal but I doubt that's the case. My gut tells me that Stewie will come back with a solid season. The kid gas two 28 goal seasons under his belt. I'm not ready to give up on him yet.

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06-06-2012, 11:53 AM
  #839
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Like I called out during the struggles of the 2nd line, Berglund doesn't deserve to be lumped in with Stewart for under-performance. Berglund's numbers and play shot up when Stewart was taken off his line. Berglund and McDonald play very well together.

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06-06-2012, 12:05 PM
  #840
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In about 2 weeks we could have a pretty good idea of what this team is going to look like. Potential deals at the draft will be trading for Garrison's rights, they won't cost a lot and a week of negotiating would be worth it; and potentially a forward for a center or defenseman. Some think Stewart, I kind of think Perron, but maybe it's someone else, maybe even Schwartz. I'm sort of expecting Army to make a move like LA did with Richards last year.

LA is proving that our blueprint is right, we just some more firepower like they added to their lineup.

Even though we are a young team and should have a large window, we shouldn't get complacent because plenty of teams before have wasted their chance because they thought they had a large window of opportunity.

We have enough defensive minded forwards on the roster, so I think we should be targeting a more offensive center instead of Staal, especially if Stewart or Perron are being traded.

We need to find a catalyst for the offense because we can't rely on McDonald staying healthy for an entire season.

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06-06-2012, 12:40 PM
  #841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Liut View Post
Any interest in Rudulov ? I think he's a FA. Tarasenko might like having him around.



edit- NM, didn't know Nashville still owned his right. Probably not a Hitch type of player either. Doesn't like to play defense.
hell no!

don`t like his attitude, never did (and not just since his latest Nashville disaster)

he wouldn`t fit here. I wouldn`t even consider signing him if he would be a UFA

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06-06-2012, 12:58 PM
  #842
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Stewart lost his spot on the PP due to his poor play. He scored 14 even strength goals last season. Here are some other even strength goal totals.

Backes 14
Oshie 15
Berglund 17? the TSN sight showed he had 0 PP goals
Arnott 11
Perron 16

I do not know how many empty net goals each player had. I think a healthy Perron scores at least 30 next year. I hpoe Stewart bounces back to be in the top three in goals scored.

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06-06-2012, 01:01 PM
  #843
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Not a chance
Not a chance? Not a chance that Stewart outscores a rookie that is adapting to a smaller rink, new town, new language, new teammates, and new defense-first system? Not a chance?

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06-06-2012, 01:36 PM
  #844
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Not a chance? Not a chance that Stewart outscores a rookie that is adapting to a smaller rink, new town, new language, new teammates, and new defense-first system? Not a chance?


Yup, not a chance

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06-06-2012, 01:43 PM
  #845
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hell no!

don`t like his attitude, never did (and not just since his latest Nashville disaster)

he wouldn`t fit here. I wouldn`t even consider signing him if he would be a UFA

Yeah, you're probably right. Shame too, because the kid has skill. I think he and Tarasenko would hit it off and help with the adjustment period.

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06-06-2012, 01:52 PM
  #846
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What if Army were to kill 2 birds with 1 stone? Something like...

Stewart
D'agostini
Jackman (Negotiating Rights)
1st

Giordano
Backlund
2nd

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06-06-2012, 02:34 PM
  #847
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Do you guys believe Jackman will be a Blue next season?
How could you guys POSSIBLY want more LHD? Are you trying to corner the market the way the Dukes went after frozen concentrated orange juice?

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06-06-2012, 02:44 PM
  #848
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So my point in asking what people think Stewart's production will be is that at best he's likely to be a 2d line winger on this team, and very possibly not crack the top 4 in PPG.

This past year:
McDonald .880 PPG
Perron .737 PPG
Oshie .675 PPG
Steen .651 PPG
Stewart .380 PPG
D'Agostini .327 PPG

Now, Stewart's not going to reach Perron/McDonald production IMO. Even if he matches Oshie or Steen in offensive production they are vastly superior 2-way players. I personally think Tarasenko is more likely to produce better than Stewart because he has better hockey sense, is more aggressive, has more raw talent, and is likely better defensively even out of the box. In other words, Stewart is not a first liner and probably not a top-four winger on this team even with a bounceback. Unless it is an extraordinary bounceback, in which case how are they going to pay him?

So you're saying when you wouldn't trade Stewart for a mid first rounder, a player strongly projected to be at least a 2d line forward or a top-four defenseman, that the value of one exceeds the other. Yes, Stewart is 6 years ahead of that player on the developmental curve. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing given how the Blues are constructed with the need to keep the pipeline flowing. They take two nice picks, maybe they use one of them in the next 12-24 months as part of that key trade for a big piece. Big pieces often come from teams who want to get younger.

Also keep in mind Stewart's salary. If he has a bounceback year playing on a QO do you think he'd give the Blues a hometown discount? Haha. They'd have to pay close to UFA prices to buy his UFA years or they lose him a year later for nothing. And if he doesn't bounce back now you've totally effed the dog in terms of getting value – in a year where you had NO EXCUSE as you were totally loaded on the wings and had no need to pay 3.25M to see if the guy might be able to become a 2d liner again.

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06-06-2012, 02:47 PM
  #849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarvinSigX View Post
What if Army were to kill 2 birds with 1 stone? Something like...

Stewart
D'agostini
Jackman (Negotiating Rights)
1st

Giordano
Backlund
2nd

I like your thought process, but I'd chose a different target.

Perron, D'Agostini, 1st and 3rd
for
Artem Anisimov and Marc Staal

IMO Staal is the ideal fit to go next to Pie and Anismov is the perfect fit for our 3rd line center(Big, fairly talented, somewhat physical, good defensively, decent on FO's, Russian(Tarasenko aspect), plays on both ST units).

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06-06-2012, 02:52 PM
  #850
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
So my point in asking what people think Stewart's production will be is that at best he's likely to be a 2d line winger on this team, and very possibly not crack the top 4 in PPG.

This past year:
McDonald .880 PPG
Perron .737 PPG
Oshie .675 PPG
Steen .651 PPG
Stewart .380 PPG
D'Agostini .327 PPG

Now, Stewart's not going to reach Perron/McDonald production IMO. Even if he matches Oshie or Steen in offensive production they are vastly superior 2-way players. I personally think Tarasenko is more likely to produce better than Stewart because he has better hockey sense, is more aggressive, has more raw talent, and is likely better defensively even out of the box. In other words, Stewart is not a first liner and probably not a top-four winger on this team even with a bounceback. Unless it is an extraordinary bounceback, in which case how are they going to pay him?

So you're saying when you wouldn't trade Stewart for a mid first rounder, a player strongly projected to be at least a 2d line forward or a top-four defenseman, that the value of one exceeds the other. Yes, Stewart is 6 years ahead of that player on the developmental curve. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing given how the Blues are constructed with the need to keep the pipeline flowing. They take two nice picks, maybe they use one of them in the next 12-24 months as part of that key trade for a big piece. Big pieces often come from teams who want to get younger.

Also keep in mind Stewart's salary. If he has a bounceback year playing on a QO do you think he'd give the Blues a hometown discount? Haha. They'd have to pay close to UFA prices to buy his UFA years or they lose him a year later for nothing. And if he doesn't bounce back now you've totally effed the dog in terms of getting value – in a year where you had NO EXCUSE as you were totally loaded on the wings and had no need to pay 3.25M to see if the guy might be able to become a 2d liner again.

And, pray tell, why exactly can't Stewart match Perron/McDonald numbers.
The guy hit 64 points in 09-10. Both Perron and McDonald pace at 60-65 point levels.

If Stewart bounces back he is far and away our best goal scorer, easily one of our top 5 most talented players(D men and goalies included) and is a top line player on literally every team in the League. IMO you are putting way to much stock his his poor showing this year and completely ignoring his past performance.

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