HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Columbus Blue Jackets
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

2012 CBJ Offseason Part II (Proposals? Speculation? Blog Rumors? Right here.)

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
06-08-2012, 11:08 AM
  #76
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadman View Post
Not convinced Schneider has demonstrated that he is "that" guy. Not that he isn't/ shouldn't be under consideration. Just not at the level of a franchise/ game changing acquisition.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
If he's not "that guy," who is? I can't see anyone demonstrably better the CBJ is going to get.
Don't worry Lee, I think its just that R-Man is now down to part of the 3.1 %.

EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 11:45 AM
  #77
blahblah
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 17,329
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Your response begs the question.

Which comes first a good goalie or a team capable of making life easy for said goalie?
It's not a chicken or the egg situation, therefore the response begs nothing. Certainly not your quesiton.

There are no dependencies.

blahblah is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 12:15 PM
  #78
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
You must be a hard sell. A 1.97 GAA and a .937 save percentage seems pretty good to me.

Of course Mason almost won the Vezina so one good season doesn't necessarily make a goalie.
Exactamundo!!!

And he hasn't yet logged a full season.


Last edited by Roadman: 06-08-2012 at 12:26 PM.
Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 12:26 PM
  #79
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
If he's not "that guy," who is? I can't see anyone demonstrably better the CBJ is going to get.

And that may be the case. The question was would I trade the 2nd OA for him, my answer was no. My reason was he hasn't yet demonstrated sufficiently that he is a franchise goalie. Many believe he is, And he may well turn out to be that. His body of work is not yet to the point that I would be willing to give up that high a pick.

He may be arguably the best available, if he is available, but don't see the value for the pick. I think an upgrade, a difference, in goal can be had for less than that.

I am not adverse to Scbneider, quite the contrary. Just looking at the return on the price paid vs what the pick could net in the draft and what it would mean to the franchise down the road. I just think the questions on him are as great as the questions on any of the prospective draftees.

Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 12:33 PM
  #80
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Don't worry Lee, I think its just that R-Man is now down to part of the 3.1 %.
That's .34%, what was left over after 99.66 %

Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 12:47 PM
  #81
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadman View Post
That's .34%, what was left over after 99.6 %
Thanks for the clarification. I thought us doom and gloomers were more than 96.66

That was my high school dilemNa - whether to study spelling or percents.


Last edited by EspenK: 06-08-2012 at 04:43 PM.
EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 01:01 PM
  #82
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,761
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Again,your point?

When Schneider wins the Cup somewhere, he will sing:

Ah, but I was so much older then
Iím younger than that now

Since I do look for patterns....I did a search for goalies (since the 1967 expansion) who have reached age 26 with more than 50 NHL games and less than 100. There are 73 goalies who meet these parameters, 72 if we exclude Michel Dion, who had a good number of WHA games before ending up in the NHL.

Out of this list, there is 1 HOFer (Tony Esposito), and he never would have ended up in Chicago if not for the forerunner to the waiver draft. Montreal had to protect either him or Rogie Vachon, and Vachon was both younger and had shown himself to be a top-level starter.

The next best among the group are Pekka Rinne, Marty Turco, Glenn Healy, Olaf Kolzig, and Bob Froese. That's 6 guys out of 72 who had anything resembling an above-average NHL career. There are a lot of guys who were regarded as sure-fire starters if they only got a chance...and never did anything.

Among these goalies, Schneider is 6th in wins, behind Esposito, Froese, Sergei Bobrovsky, Mike Smith, and Peter Sidorkiewicz. He's tied for 11th in shutouts, behind Esposito, Smith, Rinne, Froese, Markus Mattsson, James Reimer, Turco, Manny Fernandez, Corey Crawford, and Sidorkiewicz. He's tied with Craig Anderson, Steve Shields, Sebastien Caron, Peter Skudra, Gary Edwards, Josh Harding, Gary Bromley, Mike Dunham, and Jonas Hiller.

When you go further and start adjusting for caliber of team, era played in, and so on, it becomes a bit more clear. Among these 72 goalies, Schneider played behind a team that's, at worst, among the top-5. His games have come in an era that's becoming increasingly low-scoring, and his playoff performances have come during a time that's seen a significant drop in scoring due to outright mugging becoming legal again.

So no, I'm not sold on the idea that Schneider is a franchise goalie, and I'm certainly not sold on the idea that he's worth #2 overall. I've seen this plenty of times before, and 1 out of every 12 goalies in this cluster have an above-average NHL career.

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 01:06 PM
  #83
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,761
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
If he's not "that guy," who is? I can't see anyone demonstrably better the CBJ is going to get.
It has nothing to do with whether there's anyone demonstrably better. Given the choice between keeping the #2 pick and gambling on another goalie either in free agency or in the trade market, or losing the pick and getting Schneider, I'm keeping the pick.

Cory Schneider is 8 years older than whoever will be drafted with that pick. The salary that he will command will be substantially higher than whoever will be drafted with that pick. And, as we've seen plenty of times, including with three separate teams this season (Ottawa, St. Louis, and Phoenix), a goalie reclaimed off the scrap heap for nothing can pay enormous dividends in a very short period of time.

By this point, Schneider has lost all of his actual development years, and at least 1 prime year, by backing up Luongo. Those years cannot just simply be reclaimed; they're gone forever.

If I'm interested in a goalie from Vancouver, it'd be Luongo. He's proven that he can be a high-level starter in the NHL; he's only done it for 11 or so years by now. He's past his prime, but his cost will likely be lower. And if a deal can't be done there, move on to the next guy.

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 01:11 PM
  #84
blahblah
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 17,329
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
You know, build the team from the goal out.
On another side note, your post suggests that sacrificing the #2 pick is someone required to resolve the issue. Since it's not, this statement of yours is meaningless. You can, indeed, build from the goal out without sacrificing your #2 pick.

Don't let our desperation for good goal tending lead us to stupid decisions.

blahblah is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 01:52 PM
  #85
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
On another side note, your post suggests that sacrificing the #2 pick is someone required to resolve the issue. Since it's not, this statement of yours is meaningless. You can, indeed, build from the goal out without sacrificing your #2 pick.

Don't let our desperation for good goal tending lead us to stupid decisions.
I guess I just didn't know all the nuances of my post. My post did not suggest or imply that we would have to sacrifice our #2. You may have inferred that it did. So be it.

I agree a team can build from the goal out without "sacrificing" a #2 pick. I also believe you can build from the goal out by trading said pick. Hopefully you will find this to be pretty clear cut, without, implication, suggestion or any other inane hidden meaning or intent you would like to discover or imagine exists.

EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 01:56 PM
  #86
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
It has nothing to do with whether there's anyone demonstrably better. Given the choice between keeping the #2 pick and gambling on another goalie either in free agency or in the trade market, or losing the pick and getting Schneider, I'm keeping the pick.

Cory Schneider is 8 years older than whoever will be drafted with that pick. The salary that he will command will be substantially higher than whoever will be drafted with that pick. And, as we've seen plenty of times, including with three separate teams this season (Ottawa, St. Louis, and Phoenix), a goalie reclaimed off the scrap heap for nothing can pay enormous dividends in a very short period of time.

By this point, Schneider has lost all of his actual development years, and at least 1 prime year, by backing up Luongo. Those years cannot just simply be reclaimed; they're gone forever.

If I'm interested in a goalie from Vancouver, it'd be Luongo. He's proven that he can be a high-level starter in the NHL; he's only done it for 11 or so years by now. He's past his prime, but his cost will likely be lower. And if a deal can't be done there, move on to the next guy.
Out of curiosity who is the sure fire All Star we are going to acquire because "Standing pat at #2 and picking someone who tops out at even a half-notch below All-Star level isn't something I would do."

EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 02:16 PM
  #87
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Out of curiosity who is the sure fire All Star we are going to acquire because "Standing pat at #2 and picking someone who tops out at even a half-notch below All-Star level isn't something I would do."
But you would trade it for Schneider, with no more assurances there.

He is a long way from an all star, at this point.

Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 02:32 PM
  #88
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadman View Post
But you would trade it for Schneider, with no more assurances there.

He is a long way from an all star, at this point.
Sorry, I should have been clearer-the question was posed to Mayor because of that quote in an earlier statement of his about the #2 pick.

The way I see it, the draft is a crapshoot to some extent regardless of who you take. At least with Schneider you know that in his career in the NHL he has performed pretty well, albeit with a good team and not for very many games.. As I said in a previous post, if Yakupov is available I take him. If the Jackets have Galchenyuk at 2 on their list, I probably (99.66%) take him.

Other than that, if Vancouver goes for it I'd make the trade. And if i can get them to throw in another asset, great.

EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 03:07 PM
  #89
blahblah
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 17,329
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
I guess I just didn't know all the nuances of my post. My post did not suggest or imply that we would have to sacrifice our #2. You may have inferred that it did. So be it.

I agree a team can build from the goal out without "sacrificing" a #2 pick. I also believe you can build from the goal out by trading said pick. Hopefully you will find this to be pretty clear cut, without, implication, suggestion or any other inane hidden meaning or intent you would like to discover or imagine exists.
You've built the entire argument and closed with "build from the goal out", you even listed a condition on who is available at #2 to go through with the trade.

Your whole thought process from what I can tell is focused on Schneider as the future goalie and the #2 being the requirement to get him.

What you are implying is fairly obvious for all those that are looking. To suggest otherwise is a bit disingenuous. Sing another tune and opinions can be reformed. Until then, as far as I can tell you have a single site with a single solution.

What is baffling to me is why anyone would actually want to trade the overall #2 pick for a goal tender. What a piss poor use of resources. Yes, we can do it. But damn, what a complete waste.

blahblah is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 03:15 PM
  #90
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Sorry, I should have been clearer-the question was posed to Mayor because of that quote in an earlier statement of his about the #2 pick.

None the less, my objections stand.

I do not trade the 2nd OA pick for Schneider.

Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 03:52 PM
  #91
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,761
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Out of curiosity who is the sure fire All Star we are going to acquire because "Standing pat at #2 and picking someone who tops out at even a half-notch below All-Star level isn't something I would do."
I don't know. I'm not a scout, but I can read reports just like anyone else. If I'm the GM and there isn't someone who can make a significant difference on the ice, move the pick for someone who will. If there are a lot of solid players at #2 but no All-Stars, and Winnipeg calls up and offers #9 and Tobias Enstrom for #2, I'm taking that deal. Obviously I'd try to milk some more out of them, but I'd like that framework.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Sorry, I should have been clearer-the question was posed to Mayor because of that quote in an earlier statement of his about the #2 pick.

The way I see it, the draft is a crapshoot to some extent regardless of who you take. At least with Schneider you know that in his career in the NHL he has performed pretty well, albeit with a good team and not for very many games.. As I said in a previous post, if Yakupov is available I take him. If the Jackets have Galchenyuk at 2 on their list, I probably (99.66%) take him.

Other than that, if Vancouver goes for it I'd make the trade. And if i can get them to throw in another asset, great.
You've presented the two most obvious objections that there can be to projecting a goalie: good team and small sample size. Cory Schneider is less proven in the NHL than Mathieu Corbeil was in the QMJHL, and he apparently wasn't offered a contract (might have been but didn't sign it; we don't know).

Schneider is not only mostly unknown, but he's also got age on him that a lot of good young goalies do not. There also isn't a long track record of success for goalies in his particular situation; trust me, there are some highly-touted and highly-regarded goalies in the lists I provided who simply did nothing. If Cory Schneider were in St. Louis instead of Vancouver, would he be regarded as so much better than Ben Bishop was that it justifies this massive additional expense? Bishop is younger by a few months, and his numbers suffer compared to Schneider because of the quality of the team in front of him.

I'm not saying that I would ignore Schneider entirely. But if it means sinking a second-round pick on Luongo versus #2 overall for Schneider, I'm taking Luongo without blinking.

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 04:51 PM
  #92
leesmith
Still in.
 
leesmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 16,973
vCash: 500
MayorBee and Roadman, I hear you and understand your reasoning. Using the #2 pick on a goaltender in the draft IS a waste, but here's why I'd trade the #2 pick for a guy like Luongo or Schneider.

Goalie is the most important position on the ice. Steve Mason has single-handedly proven what it does for the team when the goalie plays well and what it does for the team when the goalie doesn't play well. It is even more important when your club is challenged to score goals - as ours is likely to be next season. So do I trade the #2 pick for a guy who has proven he can play the nets well in the NHL? Or do I keep the pick and risk that the kid I select will actually pan out to last more than a season or two at the NHL level? I trade the pick and take the sure thing.

leesmith is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:05 PM
  #93
Robert
Foligno family
 
Robert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: KY & Lime Lake NY
Country: United States
Posts: 31,048
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to Robert
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
MayorBee and Roadman, I hear you and understand your reasoning. Using the #2 pick on a goaltender in the draft IS a waste, but here's why I'd trade the #2 pick for a guy like Luongo or Schneider.

Goalie is the most important position on the ice. Steve Mason has single-handedly proven what it does for the team when the goalie plays well and what it does for the team when the goalie doesn't play well. It is even more important when your club is challenged to score goals - as ours is likely to be next season. So do I trade the #2 pick for a guy who has proven he can play the nets well in the NHL? Or do I keep the pick and risk that the kid I select will actually pan out to last more than a season or two at the NHL level? I trade the pick and take the sure thing.
It would be a risk I doubt Howson would take but I'd consider it (Schneider) if there was a second player with potential included.. Our second pick probably won't be ready to play for several years (Murray might be an exception); if the Jackets could get the Leaf first round pick in a Nash trade then a deal with Vancouver would be more palatable..

Robert is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:06 PM
  #94
EspenK
Registered User
 
EspenK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,998
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
MayorBee and Roadman, I hear you and understand your reasoning. Using the #2 pick on a goaltender in the draft IS a waste, but here's why I'd trade the #2 pick for a guy like Luongo or Schneider.

Goalie is the most important position on the ice. Steve Mason has single-handedly proven what it does for the team when the goalie plays well and what it does for the team when the goalie doesn't play well. It is even more important when your club is challenged to score goals - as ours is likely to be next season. So do I trade the #2 pick for a guy who has proven he can play the nets well in the NHL? Or do I keep the pick and risk that the kid I select will actually pan out to last more than a season or two at the NHL level? I trade the pick and take the sure thing.
You are a brave man leesmith. Expect a bunch of statistics, patterns and venom to be spewed forth to tell you why you are wrong.

EspenK is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:08 PM
  #95
JACKETfan
Real Blue Jacketfan
 
JACKETfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Venice
Country: United States
Posts: 9,235
vCash: 500
When leesmith is the voice of reason you know it's going to be a long offseason.

He's like Puxsatawney Lee.

JACKETfan is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:18 PM
  #96
Roadman
Moving On
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London OH
Country: United States
Posts: 2,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
MayorBee and Roadman, I hear you and understand your reasoning. Using the #2 pick on a goaltender in the draft IS a waste, but here's why I'd trade the #2 pick for a guy like Luongo or Schneider.

Goalie is the most important position on the ice. Steve Mason has single-handedly proven what it does for the team when the goalie plays well and what it does for the team when the goalie doesn't play well. It is even more important when your club is challenged to score goals - as ours is likely to be next season. So do I trade the #2 pick for a guy who has proven he can play the nets well in the NHL? Or do I keep the pick and risk that the kid I select will actually pan out to last more than a season or two at the NHL level? I trade the pick and take the sure thing.

Sure thing? Don't think so.

Quick, Lundqvist, Rinne..... Yep

Schneider maybe? But too small a sample size to warrant the #2. Worth consideration absolutely, but I'll go back my previous concern of value.

Now we're at the point of judging value.

You say potato..... I say potatoe....

You say Schneider.... I say draft pick...

They are unfortunately mutually exclusive.



P.S. I try very hard to NOT do venom.

Roadman is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:21 PM
  #97
Fro
Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
 
Fro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Drinking With Carts
Country: United States
Posts: 16,247
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert View Post
It would be a risk I doubt Howson would take but I'd consider it (Schneider) if there was a second player with potential included.. Our second pick probably won't be ready to play for several years (Murray might be an exception); if the Jackets could get the Leaf first round pick in a Nash trade then a deal with Vancouver would be more palatable..
so trade Nash to TOR for #5, keep #2 use on Galy, trade #5 to VAN for Schneider and another piece...sign me up

Fro is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:27 PM
  #98
Doug19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Columbus, OH
Country: Aland Islands
Posts: 6,194
vCash: 500
Schneider just flat out isn't worth a #2 pick. It's a terrible use of resources to trade a top 2 pick for a unproven goalie. I really feel like anybody that is arguing otherwise is just arguing because they don't want to admit that there initial opinion was just flat out wrong. If Schneider had been a starter the last 2 years and put up similar numbers, sure he's definitely worth strongly considering trading for, but not in his current situation. The difference between a all-star goalie and a good goalie is pretty small, but the difference between a #2 pick that pans out to be a 70-80 point player is a lot more significant than the likely alternative of a 50 point player that we'd have in that position two years down the road. You build from the goalie out, true, but that doesn't mean you just throw more valuable assets to stick to the goalie out cliche. Schneider is probably worth a 8-10 pick in this draft depending on who falls that far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fro View Post
so trade Nash to TOR for #5, keep #2 use on Galy, trade #5 to VAN for Schneider and another piece...sign me up
I would say I'd rather trade the #2 to Vancouver to make that + more substantial. Try to push hard the #2 and Tyutin for Schneider and Edler if they say no give them LA's pick as well, if they still say no offer them John Moore and they have to add Booth or Raymond. If by some chance Yakupov is there at #2 tell them #2 and Tyutin for Schneider, Edler, and push for a 3rd rounder in 13.

Doug19 is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:39 PM
  #99
Fro
Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
 
Fro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Drinking With Carts
Country: United States
Posts: 16,247
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug61 View Post
I would say I'd rather trade the #2 to Vancouver to make that + more substantial. Try to push hard the #2 and Tyutin for Schneider and Edler if they say no give them LA's pick as well, if they still say no offer them John Moore and they have to add Booth or Raymond. If by some chance Yakupov is there at #2 tell them #2 and Tyutin for Schneider, Edler, and push for a 3rd rounder in 13.
i think at that point it begins getting too convoluted...but I see where you're going...I think I can live with #5 for Schneider and Booth or Raymond

Fro is offline  
Old
06-08-2012, 05:43 PM
  #100
Doug19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Columbus, OH
Country: Aland Islands
Posts: 6,194
vCash: 500
I want Edler big time, would love to find a way to get him in a Van/CBJ trade, it's probably entirely possible as well with the #2 pick involved, maybe even the #5. But if there was possibly no way to get him involved I'd be happy with #5 for Schneider and Booth or Raymond, but I'd also want a lower pick in the 2013.

Doug19 is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:28 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2015 All Rights Reserved.