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Old
06-06-2012, 04:00 PM
  #1
McTankel
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Draft Value Chart

Not sure you want to merge this with the draft talk. This is different then actually talking picks. This shows the approximate value for moving up in the draft.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/64...Draftchart.pdf

Hypothetically speaking our 12th+21st should be enough to move up to the number 2 spot. Anyone agree with this chart?

Here is another chart:

http://www.etwsports.com/p/nhl-draft-value-chart.html

Should Darcy Trade up to get a potential franchise center? Or stay with the 4 picks we have in the top 43?

The chart shows pretty clearly that first round picks are significantly more valuable than any others in the draft. And once you get past the third round teams would be hard pressed to find some significant talent that will make an impact on their roster.

It is pretty clear from this chart that top 5 picks are gold. 80% of these picks are Above Average players and almost 50% are Stars or Superstars. However, when we think about the value of draft picks, only 10.3% of picks in the first 2 rounds become Stars (3.07% of entire draft).

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06-06-2012, 04:28 PM
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DVC's have been used in the NFL for years. The idea isn't really anything new.

It's also kinda common sense that the better players will go earlier, and that sometimes good players fall / bad players rise.

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06-06-2012, 04:39 PM
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McTankel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
DVC's have been used in the NFL for years. The idea isn't really anything new.

It's also kinda common sense that the better players will go earlier, and that sometimes good players fall / bad players rise.
Yes that was not my point nor question...It was showing the value of the top picks compared to the lower picks in an analytical manner. Which allows us as fans to see what it would/could take in order to get into the top 5 or top 10 to draft a potential franchise center/player. My concluding question was asking this board if it would be worth the trade up in relation to what the cost was based on these DVC's.

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06-06-2012, 04:55 PM
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Evgeni Giroux
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I would easily trade 12 + 21 + for Galchenyuk or Grigorenko, the other team would likely say no though.

We need a blue chip center prospect


Last edited by Evgeni Giroux: 06-06-2012 at 05:08 PM.
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06-06-2012, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
Yes that was not my point nor question...It was showing the value of the top picks compared to the lower picks in an analytical manner. Which allows us as fans to see what it would/could take in order to get into the top 5 or top 10 to draft a potential franchise center/player. My concluding question was asking this board if it would be worth the trade up in relation to what the cost was based on these DVC's.
The rub with DVCs is that they're only a tool, plus their creation can be subjective, yet a lot of fans treat them as a bible.

For example:

The first chart shows the first overall pick with a point value of 917. Edmonton might want 3 picks and a player for that pick. If you took the Sabres two 1st + 2nd + a player for example, that would be WELL over 917, but that might be the only thing that Edmonton would take. In that case, the DVC is completely wrong.

Individual teams are going to have different values assigned to their draft slots. What they will take to trade a given pick very much depends on what their needs are, and what they're being offered.

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06-06-2012, 05:02 PM
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McTankel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
The rub with DVCs is that they're only a tool, plus their creation can be subjective, yet a lot of fans treat them as a bible.

For example:

The first chart shows the first overall pick with a point value of 917. Edmonton might want 3 picks and a player for that pick. If you took the Sabres two 1st + 2nd + a player for example, that would be WELL over 917, but that might be the only thing that Edmonton would take. In that case, the DVC is completely wrong.

Individual teams are going to have different values assigned to their draft slots. What they will take to trade a given pick very much depends on what their needs are, and what they're being offered.
Yeah, I understand that. I was just looking to see what this board viewed as fair value for a player in the top 5 such as Galc or Grigs. 4 picks within the top 43 seem like a bit to much for either of these players. Don't you think?

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06-06-2012, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
Yeah, I understand that. I was just looking to see what this board viewed as fair value for a player in the top 5 such as Galc or Grigs. 4 picks within the top 43 seem like a bit to much for either of these players. Don't you think?
4 picks for any player not named Gretzky / Lemieux / Messier is a bit much for me, so yes.

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06-06-2012, 06:44 PM
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I would like to win in the near future. With that said, we need a (another) top center. I would give all four top picks in this draft to select the top center in this draft. No questions asked, done deal.

I would also give those four picks to Pittsburg for Staal, plus a salary dump.

One elite center for us right now is more valuable than prospects, we have certain specific needs, not many.

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06-06-2012, 07:07 PM
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It's a good tool, but only a starting point. It's dependent on the situation.

E.g.: this year in the NFL, the Redskins paid well above the DVC value for the #2 pick. The Rams, the original owners of the #2 pick, could ask that much because RGIII was an elite prospect that happened to be in the same draft as Andrew Luck.

In 2003, the Bengals couldn't get DVC value for the 1st pick, and drafted Carson Palmer, even though Jon Kitna was coming off a good year and showed signs of becoming a franchise QB.

My opinion of the NHL DVC is the same. 12 and 21 should get you very close to #2. It all depends on what Scott Howson wants, and how he values the players available - as well as what Regier is willing to pay.

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06-06-2012, 07:34 PM
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WhoIsJimBob
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I would be stunned if any team traded out of the top 2 or 3 picks all the way to 12 and just picked up the 21st pick for their troubles.

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06-07-2012, 12:03 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
I would be stunned if any team traded out of the top 2 or 3 picks all the way to 12 and just picked up the 21st pick for their troubles.
This. If we're gonna crack the top 5, I think it's going to require parting with an asset we'd actually rather keep. Like a solid prospect/young player. If CBJ would take all 4 picks in the first 2 rounds for 2 overall, I wouldn't even blink, just take it and run. I'd bank that much on Galchenyuk in a thin/d-heavy draft when we need a blue chip center prospect.

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06-09-2012, 07:13 AM
  #12
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The problem with an NHL DVC over say the NFL DVC is that the NFL has top candidates at about 16 different positions. QB, RB, WR, TE, LT, RT, G, C, DT, DE, OLB, ILB (Strong), ILB (Weak), SS, FS, CB. There is a lot to be looked at when you are trying to move up and down and where your needs are on a team. This increases flexibility in the top 10 to 14 picks.

In the NHL, there really are five. LW, C, RW, D, G. Therefore, the draft value chart is skewed. There may not be a top five prospect at specific positions.

The talent pool has a ton do with it as well. Ryan Nugent Hopkins is a good player, but he is no Sydney Crosby. My point is the level of projection for each player has a ton to do with it.

In oreder for a DVC to work, these points would have to be calibrated prior to the draft on a per prospect basis by an independent party. Therefore, you would no the value of your picks and how you could move up or down.

I think it is just way to complicated to work in the NHL. It may be good to give you a basis for a start to work on a trade, but an all inclusive system would never work.

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06-09-2012, 10:37 AM
  #13
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I don't think the question is "should he" trade up, but rather, "who would be willing to trade down"?

Just because you have a cool chart doesn't mean GM's want to move a 2nd overall draft pick.

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06-09-2012, 05:20 PM
  #14
WhoIsJimBob
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Play4Miracles View Post
I don't think the question is "should he" trade up, but rather, "who would be willing to trade down"?

Just because you have a cool chart doesn't mean GM's want to move a 2nd overall draft pick.
I keep getting back to the fact that the furthest back any team in the top 5 has moved since the lockout is when the Isles traded back from 5 to 7 in the Schenn deal in '08. The Isles then traded back two more slots to 9 with the Preds who took Colin Wilson.

Toronto gave up a 3rd (68th overall) and a future 2nd to move up from 7 to 5.

The Isles then picked up a 2nd (40th overall) to move back two more slots from 7 to 9.

So, the Isles picked up a 2nd, a 3rd, and a future 2nd to move from 5 to 9.

How does that figure against the DPV charts?

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