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2005 NHL Draft Lottery-Know the Rules

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Old
06-13-2012, 10:14 PM
  #1
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2005 NHL Draft Lottery-Know the Rules

I'm posting this thread, because of soooo many people completely misunderstanding the draft lottery coming out of the lock-out in 2005. People somehow equate Pitt being lousy in 2003-2004 with why they won the lottery in 2005. It is a very small portion of the reason why they won the lottery. Mostly they won the lottery because they got very very lucky.


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Three balls
Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins

Two balls
Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes

One ball
Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals
Pens, Ranger, Blue Jackets and Sabres had a 3 in 48 (6%) chance of being the winning ball.
The teams with 2 balls had a 2 in 48 chance which is about 4%.

So if they did have a lockout for the full season and they did use the same formula, the Leafs would have a 6% chance of drafting 1st overall, with the odds gradually improving each time they don't win that selection.

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06-13-2012, 10:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
I'm posting this thread, because of soooo many people completely misunderstanding the draft lottery coming out of the lock-out in 2005. People somehow equate Pitt being lousy in 2003-2004 with why they won the lottery in 2005. It is a very small portion of the reason why they won the lottery. Mostly they won the lottery because they got very very lucky.




Pens, Ranger, Blue Jackets and Sabres had a 3 in 48 (6%) chance of being the winning ball.
The teams with 2 balls had a 2 in 48 chance which is about 4%.

So if they did have a lockout for the full season and they did use the same formula, the Leafs would have a 6% chance of drafting 1st overall, with the odds gradually improving each time they don't win that selection.
Yes, but it is probable that they would just do since the other lockout, because there was a few teams that didn't like the size of the sample to measure, or else EDM has the chance for it once again..

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06-13-2012, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Galchenyuk View Post
Yes, but it is probable that they would just do since the other lockout, because there was a few teams that didn't like the size of the sample to measure, or else EDM has the chance for it once again..
A little off topic, but someone proposed the idea that if you get the 1st overall pick, you cant get another 1st overall pick for like another 5 years. I think thats a good idea.

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06-13-2012, 10:27 PM
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What needs to be explained is why each team had a different amount of balls.

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06-13-2012, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Galchenyuk View Post
Yes, but it is probable that they would just do since the other lockout, because there was a few teams that didn't like the size of the sample to measure, or else EDM has the chance for it once again..
Even the defending cup champs will have a shot at 1st overall. There's no reason to be afraid of Edmonton's 6%. It is truly a lottery. It is slightly weighted, but it is a lottery.

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06-13-2012, 10:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 416Leafer View Post
A little off topic, but someone proposed the idea that if you get the 1st overall pick, you cant get another 1st overall pick for like another 5 years. I think thats a good idea.
They should be exempt from a lottery pick for 5 years. No more awarding the most pathetic team repeatedly; especially when you have a special case like Edmonton, where they manage to find a new low worse than pathetic.

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06-13-2012, 10:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
What needs to be explained is why each team had a different amount of balls.
It's not really important, nor is it the point. The point is, the Leafs will be tied with the best chance to win at 6%. Of the 4 teams who had 3 balls last time, they drafted 1st, 6th, 13th and 16th.

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06-13-2012, 10:30 PM
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Thank you for posting this Pete. Should help clear up the confusion (including me up to a few hours ago), of how many balls each team gets. To the people who are okay with a lockout so Toronto gets the first overall... Is a 6% chance really worth it?

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06-13-2012, 10:30 PM
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I've go no worries if a lock out occurs. If Bettman can fix the Crosby sweepstakes so the Pens aren't on the move...he can surely save the franchise that brings in the most revenue. .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Thank you for posting this Pete. Should help clear up the confusion (including me up to a few hours ago), of how many balls each team gets. To the people who are okay with a lockout so Toronto gets the first overall... Is a 6% chance really worth it?
That 6% chance is the reason why people think it's fixed.

Of ALL places, it had to be the Penguins who got so many STH the MOMENT Sidney Crosby was drafted. They could have easily relocated.

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06-13-2012, 10:32 PM
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Here is the explanation for those who are curious.

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What makes this year's draft intriguing is that any of the NHL's 30 teams have a shot at landing the No. 1 pick.

Each team begins with three balls in the lottery barrel. For every playoff appearance in the last three years or No. 1 overall pick over the last four years, a team loses one ball.

With that scenario, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus and the New York Rangers have the best chance of drafting Crosby. Each of those teams will have the maximum three balls in the lottery barrel while the rest of the 30 teams will have either two or one.

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06-13-2012, 10:34 PM
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Toronto already brings in the most revenue. Wouldn't they try to put Mackinnon in another floundering market if the conspiracy theorists are right?

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06-13-2012, 10:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Thank you for posting this Pete. Should help clear up the confusion (including me up to a few hours ago), of how many balls each team gets. To the people who are okay with a lockout so Toronto gets the first overall... Is a 6% chance really worth it?
It's my pleasure. Thinking about another lost season really sucks. Doing so with the hopes of a 6% chance to win the lottery, makes no sense.

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06-13-2012, 10:37 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Thank you for posting this Pete. Should help clear up the confusion (including me up to a few hours ago), of how many balls each team gets. To the people who are okay with a lockout so Toronto gets the first overall... Is a 6% chance really worth it?
Also a full season lockout is what constituted this system last time, so as long as there are any games played next year this thread is irrelevant.

Reverse NHL standings in a partial season would make the entry draft odds similar to any other non lockout season, unless the new CBA changes the current rules for the draft lottery.

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06-13-2012, 10:43 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Also a full season lockout is what constituted this system last time, so as long as there are any games played next year this thread is irrelevant.

Reverse NHL standings in a partial season would make the entry draft odds similar to any other non lockout season, unless the new CBA changes the current rules for the draft lottery.
That is correct.

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06-13-2012, 11:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayStBullies View Post
They should be exempt from a lottery pick for 5 years. No more awarding the most pathetic team repeatedly; especially when you have a special case like Edmonton, where they manage to find a new low worse than pathetic.
They did improve by 14 points last season. They got lucky with the standings (many teams were just a couple of points ahead of them) and with the lottery.

Last season, they didn't even win the lottery, NJ did and selected Larsson 3rd overall.

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06-13-2012, 11:36 PM
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They should not look back at teams history 3 years ago, but the should look back all the eay to the last lockout when determining how many balls each team gets.

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06-13-2012, 11:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Also a full season lockout is what constituted this system last time, so as long as there are any games played next year this thread is irrelevant.

Reverse NHL standings in a partial season would make the entry draft odds similar to any other non lockout season, unless the new CBA changes the current rules for the draft lottery.
I hope they do. The NBA's system is pretty fun. Ours doesn't even really count as a lottery. one of 5 can get the top pick with the team that finished last having a 48% chance of it. The NOTHING else is different. I want to see a 9th place team jump up and grab it, or a last place team get like 6th overall. Adds some entertainment to proceedings IMO.

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06-13-2012, 11:52 PM
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Originally Posted by threeGo View Post
They should not look back at teams history 3 years ago, but the should look at any way that further benefits my favourite team.


fixed.

There is no way that Leafs fans were saying this in 2005 during the Crosby lottery.

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06-13-2012, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by robdicks View Post
I hope they do. The NBA's system is pretty fun. Ours doesn't even really count as a lottery. one of 5 can get the top pick with the team that finished last having a 48% chance of it. The NOTHING else is different. I want to see a 9th place team jump up and grab it, or a last place team get like 6th overall. Adds some entertainment to proceedings IMO.
I agree, or alternatively, to soften it up a little bit, allow all 14 teams, and pick the top 3 picks (everyone has a chance) and then slot them in from there. The worst you can do is drop 3 spots.

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06-14-2012, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
What makes this year's draft intriguing is that any of the NHL's 30 teams have a shot at landing the No. 1 pick.

Each team begins with three balls in the lottery barrel. For every playoff appearance in the last three years or No. 1 overall pick over the last four years, a team loses one ball.

With that scenario, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus and the New York Rangers have the best chance of drafting Crosby. Each of those teams will have the maximum three balls in the lottery barrel while the rest of the 30 teams will have either two or one.
Even that description's a little misleading. You don't lose a ball "for every" playoff appearance or first overall. Essentially there's two criteria:

1) Missed the playoffs in each of the previous 3 seasons.
2) Didn't have the 1st overall selection over the last 4 drafts.

If you met both criteria, you got 3 balls.
If you made the playoffs only once OR had the 1st overall only once, you got 2 balls.
If you had two or more of any combination of those two (playoff appearances or 1st overalls), then you only got 1 ball.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Thanks for starting the thread though; it'll definitely be useful with all this lock-out talk flying around.

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06-14-2012, 12:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
I agree, or alternatively, to soften it up a little bit, allow all 14 teams, and pick the top 3 picks (everyone has a chance) and then slot them in from there. The worst you can do is drop 3 spots.
I definitely like that idea; it'd help make things more fair for teams that miss the playoffs, but decide not to go into full-on tank mode. Not to mention it'd make things so much more interesting.

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06-14-2012, 01:01 AM
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Thanks for posting this.

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06-14-2012, 02:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
What needs to be explained is why each team had a different amount of balls.
Some teams don't have Sami Salo on them

Sorry Sami, had to

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06-14-2012, 03:12 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by My Sweet Shadow View Post
Even that description's a little misleading. You don't lose a ball "for every" playoff appearance or first overall. Essentially there's two criteria:

1) Missed the playoffs in each of the previous 3 seasons.
2) Didn't have the 1st overall selection over the last 4 drafts.

If you met both criteria, you got 3 balls.
If you made the playoffs only once OR had the 1st overall only once, you got 2 balls.
If you had two or more of any combination of those two (playoff appearances or 1st overalls), then you only got 1 ball.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Thanks for starting the thread though; it'll definitely be useful with all this lock-out talk flying around.
I cut and pasted it from an article written just before the draft. I think if you look at it, it's saying the same thing you are saying with the * of, you got at least 1 ball.

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06-14-2012, 09:04 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayStBullies View Post
They should be exempt from a lottery pick for 5 years. No more awarding the most pathetic team repeatedly; especially when you have a special case like Edmonton, where they manage to find a new low worse than pathetic.
Does this only apply to the team that gets the number 1 pick overall, or all lottery teams? If we apply it to all lottery teams, the Leafs aren't getting that shiny new #5 draft pick this year because they finished 2nd last in 2010. So does no top 5 picks for the Leafs until the 2015 draft sound good to you?

In fact, the Leafs finished bottom 5 in 2008 so...

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